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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 4, 2014 9:44:26 GMT -5
I would be comfortable with that scenario. The backup will only play every fifth day or. So, if it's Lavarnway or Butler, he hits against LHers. Hopefully, barring injury, Swihart shows he's ready by mid season and either Lavarnway is released or traded. Or, if it's Butler, returned to Pawtucket.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 4, 2014 11:05:23 GMT -5
It's one way of protecting the existing players on the 40 man, although I doubt that would drive this scenario. I am one person who thinks if we are not going to land Martin I'd just as well see Lavarnway be the back up but a trade option would seem to have more potential; i.e. us trading for a back up catcher.
Cespedes would land a heck of a short term catcher.
We could sign Headley or Sandoval and then have an OF or a AAA starting pitching prospect available in a trade for a catcher.
Regarding Vasquez's numbers in September, to me the level of pitching we saw in September was a lot like a spring training environment. We were not facing the quality of pitching Vasquez can expect to face next year.
My bet is Vasquez will struggle to hit above .220/230 for the year in 2015.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 4, 2014 12:37:04 GMT -5
That's certainly one way to look at it, I guess. I'm more inclined to think "mentor" than anything if you're seeking a complementary piece for Vazquez. Old hand that knows the biz, etc. That said, you can always just deploy Varitek in that role without using a roster spot. He could easily split time between Boston and Pawtucket with Swihart. I guess the theory with your guy is the offensive guy plays on a day you need to sit one of your more offensive-minded players for a less offensively-gifted backup or something? I dunno. I don't think it's really that complementary. It's not like the offensive-minded catcher can hit while Vazquez fields. In the grand scheme of things, just get the guy that gives you the most value on a one-year deal. If it's an 80 fielder with a 40 bat versus at 40 fielder with a 60 bat, to throw random numbers out there, gimme the first guy. In late game situations this should be exactly what happens. The offensive catcher pinch hits for Vazquez in the 8th/9th in games they trail while Vazquez is a defensive replacement in the 8th/9th in games they lead. So if you are talking about two potential 1 WAR options as back up catcher, one being a 4off/80def guy and the other being a 60off/40def guy, then the second guy would certainly be more valuable, given good health to Vazquez. The other thing I would want here is for the offensive catcher to be lefthanded as this would fill another team hole and he could potentially hit for other righthanded starters. This need may not be as high later in the offseason, but that's true of most of the issues we discuss in these posts. Castro is a good all-around catcher, but I'm not so certain he is available (Arb-2 player) and he's coming off an offensive year that wasn't much better than Vazquez (.291 wOBA vs .277 wOBA). Gattis is a good fit as a hit-first catcher, but he is a RHH and is still pre-arb. I'm guessing the asking price would be high. Ideally I would like a healthy John Jaso, as his poor glove is just passable enough to catch 40+ games each of the last three years (pretty average for a backup), his bat is consistently good (.339+ wOBA each of the last 3 years), he is lefthanded and as an Arb-3 player Oakland should be willing to trade him for less than a King's ransom. Only question is health - which is a good reason to have added depth at this position. (maybe Ross and Jaso could compete for the backup job with the healthy one sticking while the other goes on the 60-day DL)
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Post by larrycook on Oct 4, 2014 17:40:02 GMT -5
I would be comfortable with that scenario. The backup will only play every fifth day or. So, if it's Lavarnway or Butler, he hits against LHers. Hopefully, barring injury, Swihart shows he's ready by mid season and either Lavarnway is released or traded. Or, if it's Butler, returned to Pawtucket. I really hope swihart stays in Pawtucket until September so he can get a good 400 to 450 at bats there.
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Post by jmei on Oct 4, 2014 21:02:00 GMT -5
That's certainly one way to look at it, I guess. I'm more inclined to think "mentor" than anything if you're seeking a complementary piece for Vazquez. Old hand that knows the biz, etc. That said, you can always just deploy Varitek in that role without using a roster spot. He could easily split time between Boston and Pawtucket with Swihart. I guess the theory with your guy is the offensive guy plays on a day you need to sit one of your more offensive-minded players for a less offensively-gifted backup or something? I dunno. I don't think it's really that complementary. It's not like the offensive-minded catcher can hit while Vazquez fields. In the grand scheme of things, just get the guy that gives you the most value on a one-year deal. If it's an 80 fielder with a 40 bat versus at 40 fielder with a 60 bat, to throw random numbers out there, gimme the first guy. In late game situations this should be exactly what happens. The offensive catcher pinch hits for Vazquez in the 8th/9th in games they trail while Vazquez is a defensive replacement in the 8th/9th in games they lead. So if you are talking about two potential 1 WAR options as back up catcher, one being a 4off/80def guy and the other being a 60off/40def guy, then the second guy would certainly be more valuable, given good health to Vazquez. You wouldn't have to only use the backup catcher to hit for Vazquez in late-game situations, though. You could just as well use one of your other bench players to pinch-hit for him, and then sub in your defensive-oriented backup. Yeah, having a backup catcher who is a strong hitter maybe saves you a roster spot (insofar as it means your other bench options can be more defense-first), but it should also cost more to acquire a strong-hitting catcher. If you're only going to use that guy to be your standard backup C/occasional pinch-hitter, it doesn't seem like the best allocation of resources.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 4, 2014 22:46:11 GMT -5
You wouldn't have to only use the backup catcher to hit for Vazquez in late-game situations, though. You could just as well use one of your other bench players to pinch-hit for him, and then sub in your defensive-oriented backup. Yeah, having a backup catcher who is a strong hitter maybe saves you a roster spot (insofar as it means your other bench options can be more defense-first), but it should also cost more to acquire a strong-hitting catcher. If you're only going to use that guy to be your standard backup C/occasional pinch-hitter, it doesn't seem like the best allocation of resources. They have 25 roster spots and ~189 mil to spend on the spots. Spending a little extra for a backup catcher I think it well worth it. As far as how much a backup catcher who can hit would cost - it's really just conjecture at this point, but I gave an example of one that 'should' be very affordable. To me, Jaso would likely come much cheaper than your alternative of Castro (for reasons already stated). But I would feel pretty good about things if Castro were the backup (Castro may not feel as good about it though).
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 4, 2014 23:19:48 GMT -5
Many times neither Francona, nor Farrell will PH for the catcher even when the game is close if there are only 2 on the roster, so I don't really see the huge need myself for a hitting backup to only play 30-40G next year, with Farrell as the manager JMEI.
If being hesitant to PH in a close game so he does not run out of catchers in an emergency situation is the case.. Sign John Buck, he's not going to get much as a FA, decent defense, superb pull power, K's like a freight train. Positive attributes of a Kelly Shoppach, without the negatives.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 5, 2014 6:06:56 GMT -5
I personally can't believe how bad our options are at catcher. Last year at this time I said I didn't want Drew even at $7 mil a year, That turned out to be prescient. I feel the same way with the back up catchers we are discussing. I think we will find that the Redsox are not as confident as seemingly all of you that Vasquez is a secure option. I think we trade for a guy who could start even on most teams. Probably still a short term guy but a good player nonetheless.
With all the comments from the FO on how they got burnt relying on rookies to perform, we are to expect that they are going to count on Vasquez and still contend in 2015? I don't think so. There is a complete paradigm shift in place regarding the discussions above. We just haven't seen it yet.
Jaso is the type of guy I'm talking about. Something like that but it probably involves a trade for a short term guy. Preferably left handed hitting.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2014 7:07:24 GMT -5
I personally can't believe how bad our options are at catcher. Last year at this time I said I didn't want Drew even at $7 mil a year, That turned out to be prescient. I feel the same way with the back up catchers we are discussing. I think we will find that the Redsox are not as confident as seemingly all of you that Vasquez is a secure option. I think we trade for a guy who could start even on most teams. Probably still a short term guy but a good player nonetheless. With all the comments from the FO on how they got burnt relying on rookies to perform, we are to expect that they are going to count on Vasquez and still contend in 2015? I don't think so. There is a complete paradigm shift in place regarding the discussions above. We just haven't seen it yet. Jaso is the type of guy I'm talking about. Something like that but it probably involves a trade for a short term guy. Preferably left handed hitting. That's ultimately the route they'll go but they still need to make Vazquez the primary catcher. He's hardly a lost cause, and they do have Swihart coming up behind him. Catching isn't a black hole. Their catching future is in good shape, especially when I remember what the Sox have had the past 35 years I've watched. They weren't sure who'd emerge when Fisk left, didn't have anybody to replace Gedman when his bat dropped off a cliff, had no catching prospects come up during the90s until the defensively challenged Hatteburg came up and then the Sox were able to pilfer Tek, along with Lowe from Seattle and solve the catching issue for a decade. The Sox have good possibilities here. They just need a LH backup catcher who isn't a black hole in the lineup just to bridge the gap if Vazquez continues to struggle (I think his plate concept is pretty decent and expect him to improve) and until Swihart is ready. And Jaso does fill that bill.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 5, 2014 8:45:14 GMT -5
It's one way of protecting the existing players on the 40 man, although I doubt that would drive this scenario. I am one person who thinks if we are not going to land Martin I'd just as well see Lavarnway be the back up but a trade option would seem to have more potential; i.e. us trading for a back up catcher. Cespedes would land a heck of a short term catcher.We could sign Headley or Sandoval and then have an OF or a AAA starting pitching prospect available in a trade for a catcher. Regarding Vasquez's numbers in September, to me the level of pitching we saw in September was a lot like a spring training environment. We were not facing the quality of pitching Vasquez can expect to face next year. My bet is Vasquez will struggle to hit above .220/230 for the year in 2015. I really don't understand your fascination with replacing Vazquez and Swihart. Vazquez is starting. We aren't wasting money or Cespedes to improve at starting catcher. It's about last on the list of needs other than crappy outfielders that need a bounce-back year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 5, 2014 9:16:48 GMT -5
I personally can't believe how bad our options are at catcher. Last year at this time I said I didn't want Drew even at $7 mil a year, That turned out to be prescient. I feel the same way with the back up catchers we are discussing. I think we will find that the Redsox are not as confident as seemingly all of you that Vasquez is a secure option. I think we trade for a guy who could start even on most teams. Probably still a short term guy but a good player nonetheless. With all the comments from the FO on how they got burnt relying on rookies to perform, we are to expect that they are going to count on Vasquez and still contend in 2015? I don't think so. There is a complete paradigm shift in place regarding the discussions above. We just haven't seen it yet. Jaso is the type of guy I'm talking about. Something like that but it probably involves a trade for a short term guy. Preferably left handed hitting. You're missing the point of what the front office and media have said. It's not that they relied on young players (saying it this way to include Middlebrooks). It's that they relied on young players without good safety net options. They're not going to suddenly stop playing young players like Vazquez. To be a successful major league baseball team, you HAVE to rely on young players at some positions because you can't just sign free agents everywhere, or else you'd blow by the luxury tax every year. Also, if you're going to talk about comments from the front office, the ones relevant to Vazquez should probably be mentioned: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/09/19/john-farrell-christian-vazquez-ready-and-capable-of-being-an-opening-day-catcher/It seems clear that at the least, he'll be a platoon option this year, if not the starter. But as mentioned by others, there are way, way bigger holes to be filled at third base and in the rotation for them to worry about going all-in at catcher.
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Post by jmei on Oct 5, 2014 9:44:31 GMT -5
You wouldn't have to only use the backup catcher to hit for Vazquez in late-game situations, though. You could just as well use one of your other bench players to pinch-hit for him, and then sub in your defensive-oriented backup. Yeah, having a backup catcher who is a strong hitter maybe saves you a roster spot (insofar as it means your other bench options can be more defense-first), but it should also cost more to acquire a strong-hitting catcher. If you're only going to use that guy to be your standard backup C/occasional pinch-hitter, it doesn't seem like the best allocation of resources. They have 25 roster spots and ~189 mil to spend on the spots. Spending a little extra for a backup catcher I think it well worth it. As far as how much a backup catcher who can hit would cost - it's really just conjecture at this point, but I gave an example of one that 'should' be very affordable. To me, Jaso would likely come much cheaper than your alternative of Castro (for reasons already stated). But I would feel pretty good about things if Castro were the backup (Castro may not feel as good about it though). Considering they need to add two starting pitchers, a starting third baseman, and at least two front-end relievers, and have only $50-60m to fill those spots, adding a premium backup catcher may not be the best use of resources. I've mostly backed off on the idea of Castro, mostly because I think he'll cost a fair amount to acquire in trade, and I think the Red Sox can use those trade chips to fill other, more pressing holes. If Jaso comes cheap, I wouldn't be opposed to it. But I'm not sure Oakland will make him available, and even if they do, I don't see the Red Sox offering the best package for him. It's just indisputably true that the Red Sox roster can't give him as much playing time as he'd deserve, especially considering that his concussion issues make him a better fit at DH (or 1B) going forward. A team with an open DH spot would thus likely value him more than the Red Sox would and would be willing to offer more than the Red Sox should be willing to give up. Of course, the market doesn't always work like that, and I would certainly look into it if I were the front office, but as above, I think their resources may be better spent elsewhere.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 5, 2014 10:03:20 GMT -5
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Post by bryce on Oct 5, 2014 12:08:45 GMT -5
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 5, 2014 16:33:48 GMT -5
I like Vasquez and Swihart a lot. I'm not fascinated with replacing them. I hope they both work out and I'm definitely rooting for them. And so far it looks good. I'm just looking at it with what I think is an objective eye and I don't think Vasquez is as likely as JBJ was to hit, as of last spring. Last spring most of us were all for JBJ being the CF. Now most of us are all for Vasquez being penciled in as the starter. I see little reason to be any more confident about him making it than we were for Middlebrooks, JBJ or a host of other top prospects. If anything, the numbers indicate he will be a solid guy in controlling the running game and getting strike calls but I see no data indicating he will be good at passed balls, good at calling games, good at hitting. I hope to God he is the 2nd coming of Yadier Molina but it is not likely given the data.
Baseball is a simulation game like simcity to me. I'm burned out on being a fan who just wants his team to win or watch an athletic spectacle. I'm old enough now where none of it really means anything to me. It's nothing personal. It's a game. It means absolutely nothing to me in the end, other than being a pleasant diversion from the troubles of my day.
They say they want to win long term but this year also. That is the current game paradigm. That is the rules we are effectively playing under in this game simulation as sports bloggers. So what is the best solution in that regard, for both win now and win long term? If we aren't going to do what it takes to get a Russell Martin, with both plus defense and offense, I think we need to sacrifice someone like a Ranaudo straight up for one year of control of a guy like Jaso. That is good value for a Jaso type. It should be plenty for one year's control of a left handed catcher who has put up good numbers for a while. I'd rather not do it, but to win now, I think they need to sacrifice some prospect talent or an outfielder to fill that need. That is as important to me as filling the 3rd base void.
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Post by awall on Oct 5, 2014 19:39:58 GMT -5
It would be insane to plan on subbing a better hitting, worse defensive catcher late in games. Burning a pinch hitter and having another solid defensive catcher makes a lot more sense.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 6, 2014 0:22:26 GMT -5
... Regarding Vasquez's numbers in September, to me the level of pitching we saw in September was a lot like a spring training environment. We were not facing the quality of pitching Vasquez can expect to face next year.My bet is Vasquez will struggle to hit above .220/230 for the year in 2015. There is no evidence whatsoever to back that up. Among the pitchers he faced were Drew Smyly, Brad Boxberger of the Rays, the Yankees Kuroda, Betences, and Robertson... it goes on and on. The 4-hit game at the end of the season included a home run against Hellickson, and a double against Peralta. Those were guys on the 25-man last time I checked. Were they all tanking? Mailing it in? Not a good way to end the season if you're a starter, grooving one for Vazquez. Won't look good on the resume. As for what to expect going forward, we've got one poster in another thread who believes that he can eventually reach .240 with a .630 OPS - essentially what he hit this season. That's the high end I guess. Yours must be the low end? He's scheduled for a regression, apparently, despite only carrying a .283 BABIP. Does he go down further from there, sort of a year-by-year meltdown? No love for this guy... it's sad.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 6, 2014 2:18:10 GMT -5
I absolutely stand by what I said regarding the quality of pitching we faced near year end. The pitching sample faced by Vasquez. I don't think it was near the quality of pitching he will normally face during the year. It was September call ups against generally weaker competition. It was similar to Spring training. Not as bad of course but similar in terms of not being the normal array of studs. Robertson, Betances, Peralta are all relievers. Hellickson gave up 8 hits that day in 2.1 innings and is a guy who needs top control to succeed, as he normally does, but he clearly didn't have it that day. Kuroda and Smyly were good.
I'm not a Vasquez hater, and by the way Mookie faced a lot of those same guys and probably had his numbers inflated a little also, as did Cechinni, Brentz...etc. I'm just saying Vasquez is a prospect still with NOWHERE NEAR the hitting pedigree of someone like Mookie. Even finishing with such a strong game he still ended up with a wRC+ of 73.
Even I expect him to have some .260 and above years. I'm saying in 2015, I don't expect him to hit higher than 225 or so. If we want to win next year, as they keep saying they do, I don't see how we can expect Vasquez to carry that banner for us in 2015 without considerable risk. They should try to get a solid guy as the back up, or as the starter even for 2015. We have some money and some trade pieces. I don't think they sign one of the FA options at catcher. If they do it is not optimal for a team which wants to win in 2015. I don't think they will sign Martin either but if they don't it's Larry, Curly and Moe in the FA market.
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Post by aussiesox on Oct 6, 2014 2:59:50 GMT -5
I'm just looking at it with what I think is an objective eye and I don't think Vasquez is as likely as JBJ was to hit, as of last spring. Last spring most of us were all for JBJ being the CF. Now most of us are all for Vasquez being penciled in as the starter. I see little reason to be any more confident about him making it than we were for Middlebrooks, JBJ or a host of other top prospects. If anything, the numbers indicate he will be a solid guy in controlling the running game and getting strike calls but I see no data indicating he will be good at passed balls, good at calling games, good at hitting. Vazquez has made much more consistent contact than JBJr in both AAA and MLB, about 10% better at both levels, that's an absolutely huge difference considering both players have below average power. Do you really think the numbers indicate he will be merely 'solid' at controlling the running game and framing? What numbers are you looking at? I see someone who is absolutely elite in both areas. He's not a good blocker, but it's not a significant worry for me personally, the -1.8 blocking runs above average per 120 games are easily offset by his huge contributions in framing (30.7 Runs/120games).
Conversely, what data is there that indicates he isn't good at calling games? From July 9 (when Vazquez came up)... The team conceded 4.49 Runs per 9 innings, however, with Vazquez, that was down to 4.05... Is it a small sample size? Sure, but so far, his game calling appears to be excellent, Yadi for example, from 2005-2014 has lowered the Cardinals RA/9 from 4.21 to 4.00. I don't think anybody is arguing the bat will be great, or even good, the bar is just really, really low when you have a special defensive package like this at the most crucial position.
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Post by redsoxfan1994 on Oct 6, 2014 4:35:27 GMT -5
Re-signing Ross should be the easy choice. Vasquez is clearly the starter next year and deservedly so...why sign Martin when we already have a starter, and why trade anything for a backup catcher who will catch a max of 40 games? If Vasquez gets hurt, Ross knows the rotation and could be a starter--albeit not a very good one--but we would still have a catcher who our staff has confidence in. If Ross decides to hang em up on his own...then we should look into trading for a backup...but that should be a fail safe and Ross should be our backup.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 6, 2014 5:41:57 GMT -5
Vasquez has played a total of 55 games of mlb baseball. That's a pretty small sample size to annoint him with proven game calling abilities. I can clearly see the control of the running game and I can concur with some confidence on the framing. I think he is a real solid defensive catcher, possibly even elite, but the data sample is too small to classify him as being everything he is given credit for.
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Post by aussiesox on Oct 6, 2014 6:03:11 GMT -5
So there's no data to suggest otherwise? That's what you're saying?
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Post by mgoetze on Oct 6, 2014 10:42:15 GMT -5
but the data sample is too small to classify him as being everything he is given credit for. So how large does the sample need to be? Show us the math please!
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 6, 2014 11:21:37 GMT -5
Vasquez has played a total of 55 games of mlb baseball. That's a pretty small sample size to annoint him with proven game calling abilities. I can clearly see the control of the running game and I can concur with some confidence on the framing. I think he is a real solid defensive catcher, possibly even elite, but the data sample is too small to classify him as being everything he is given credit for. You're in pretty good shape when the numbers agree with the scouting report. Even when it's a small sample size.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 6, 2014 15:02:01 GMT -5
Some defensive metrics require very large sample sizes to be statistically relevant. UZR/150, Catcher ERA...etc. I think Vasquez is probably an excellent defensive catcher given what w know already but I'm not ready to annoint him as Johhny Bench yet ok. We have some data but not enough to know if he is a good game caller yet and not enough to know how well he will hit, not enough to know how good his blocking skills will be...etc. I would make him the starter also, if Martin is too expensive and they can't trade for someone better but I am all for seeing what is out there to improve on all the positions we can and to me the catcher slot is still an important area of need. Both because we need at least a good back up catcher and also to provide insurance so that we don't go most of the year with another black hole in the lineup.
Will we probably spend our money to improve starting pitching and 3rd base instead?....YES, but we don't know how much everyone will cost yet and who will be available. We don't know what possible trades are available. I'm just saying we should look at each of these guys objectively, for both their upside and their downside.
For example, who will hit better in mlb? Cechinni or Vasquez? I think it's pretty likely to be Cechinni even though Vasquez had a better year in 2014. Could a case be made that we should still be signing a good catcher to at least supplement Vasquez well? I think yes, considering that he is still a rookie and relatively unproven as a hitter, the fact that catchers get injured a lot and we will be giving whoever comes in qute a bit of PT no matter what. Just about everyone wants an good external option at 3rd. I think we need good players at both slots. Not a replacement level back up catcher. At least a guy who could start on some teams.
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