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Post by dcsoxfan on Oct 9, 2014 17:58:21 GMT -5
I personally would be very wary of trading for Donaldson. First, I don't like trading for guys who have their first really good season at age 27 (like Allen Craig, too). Second, Donaldson's value as a hitter is tied up in power and walks. Such players usually don't age well.
Just my bias, but I would prefer the Red Sox didn't trade for players exhibiting that profile.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 9, 2014 18:01:11 GMT -5
I wanted to respond to this quickly-- while Donaldson is also a very good defensive player, he's not one of those guys like Jason Heyward or Alex Gordon where he'd be just an above-average guy without the defense. Even purely as a hitter, he's one of the elite players in the league. Per Baseball-Reference's version of WAR, he's been worth 6.6 wins (2013) and 5 wins (2014) on offense alone over the past two years. In terms of offensive runs above average (i.e., ignoring the positional adjustment), he ranks 14th amongst hitters over the last two years, just below guys like Puig and Holliday and ahead of guys like Beltre and Upton and Ortiz. Thanks for the info. My main source of concern is that I think he has peaked and I think he may be one of the players that falls off quickly. Perhaps I'm holding his lack of elite track record prior to his breakout against him too much and it's unfounded but that's how I feel. The Red Sox should be on win consistently mode rather than win now mode. Spending a significant portion of your prospect inventory on one player doesn't seem wise to me. If it was let's say a Josh Beckett case, were you are getting an ace entering the prime years of his career I would be all for it.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 9, 2014 20:24:34 GMT -5
I'm just too worried that there's a real chance Donaldson/Pedroia/Vazquez/Betts/Bogaerts/Castillo core, plus a rotation of, say, Lester/Shields/Kelly/De La Rosa/Kelly ends up an 86-88 win team rather than 92-94. Take the plausible scenario that Castillo busts, Betts is merely average offenively in right, and injuries make him a 120-game player, and that's where they'd be. Sure, 88 wins is competitive for a playoff spot, but more likely it would just miss. And without that depth on the farm to either supplement that core or trade for a key piece, the Red Sox could basically spend 2015-2019 in 85-win hell without a clear way out of it.
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Post by jmei on Oct 9, 2014 21:52:01 GMT -5
I guess I'm just more optimistic about that core than you are. In general, teams that get stuck in 85-win hell are either (a) filled with expensive, aging former stars (Yankees, Phillies) or (b) stall out when they lack the payroll to add the extra pieces they need to get over the top (pre-2014 Royals, Blue Jays, Brewers). This Red Sox core would be neither (well, assuming they limit the long-term contracts to one or two starting pitchers). It's dirt-cheap and contains a nice mix of players in their prime and developing young players with upside, and $140m in payroll space papers over a lot of flaws. Plus, while the middle/bottom of the system would be gutted, the Pawtucket roster would still be stacked with legit prospects and buy-low guys with rebound potential. We're talking almost a dozen guys who have made or should make top 100 prospect lists in Rodriguez, Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, Johnson, Escobar, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Marrero, and Bradley, as well as potential depth options like Wright, Coyle, Brentz, Hassan, Shaw, etc. Without those four guys, the Red Sox farm system might lack impact talent with All-Star-type ceilings, but it wouldn't be the worst in the league or anything, and the depth in the upper levels is tailor-made for supporting a win-now roster. You're right that there will be a fallow period for the farm system, but my hope is that the major league roster will be strong enough to withstand it, similar to how the 2009-2011 teams were competitive despite getting few minor league reinforcements. That fallow period will eventually hit the major league team, but it probably won't do so until that core has aged/reached free agency. So maybe the 2021 team will suck, but that's a price I'm willing to pay if the team contends until then. Besides, one of the reasons you discount future payoffs is uncertainty-- it's hard to make decisions today with an eye towards what the team might look like six years from now, because pretty much anything can happen between now and then. Maybe Cisco Tellez will be the next Matt Adams
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 10, 2014 5:22:05 GMT -5
If you can get Donaldson without giving up Betts and Bogaerts, it's likely a no brainer. However, I can't help but feel rather unenthused by the idea of trading for him. I'm not saying he isn't currently great, but he posted an OPS+ 2 points under Betts this year. He also is about to be 29 already and his production decreased from 2013 offensively. Right now, he's a tremendous player given that he is above average on both offense and defense at 3B, but thats a grueling position. How much longer is he above average defensively there? Should he ever move off of 1B, how valuable is he? Probably takes a huge hit in value if he's a 1B or DH. I'm not so sure I would want to give up 3 of even Swihart, Owens, Rodriguez, Margot and Devers for him. Because like you said, he doesn't guarantee us anything, and we'd be really buying into the now by moving even a couple of those guys.
I'm really hoping we don't sell the farm this year for anyone outside of Stanton which seems like an unlikely event. If you can buy semi-low on Heyward, I like that. That goes for pitchers too. If we don't make the playoffs again in 2015, so be it. Because chances are, our lineup looks good in 2016, and very good from then on with the core of guys we have now (granted Ortiz will be a big loss). And out pitching is on the rise too. I think we get at least one top of the rotation guy this offseason, and with the plethora of prospects we have, things will work themselves out over time. People envy the way the Cardinals have built themselves through the farm, and make the playoffs basically every year. We're in a position to be a team a lot like that in the near future. We have depth and a sneaky amount of high ceiling talent, albeit moreso in the field. There's a lot to like.
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Post by charliezink16 on Oct 16, 2014 1:56:09 GMT -5
I'm not saying he isn't currently great, but he posted an OPS+ 2 points under Betts this year. He also is about to be 29 already and his production decreased from 2013 offensively. Right now, he's a tremendous player given that he is above average on both offense and defense at 3B, but thats a grueling position. How much longer is he above average defensively there? Should he ever move off of 1B, how valuable is he? Probably takes a huge hit in value if he's a 1B or DH. I'm not so sure I would want to give up 3 of even Swihart, Owens, Rodriguez, Margot and Devers for him. Because like you said, he doesn't guarantee us anything, and we'd be really buying into the now by moving even a couple of those guys. Stating that his OPS+ is 2 points below Mookie's is more of a testament to how valuable Betts was. His .361 wOBA (min. 210 ABs) ranked 38th in baseball, ahead of Cano, Rendon, Votto, among other notables. For a 22 year old with team control through 2020, that's an unbelievably valuable player right there, one who may have as much if not more trade value than Donaldson. So comparing him to Betts is pretty meaningless IMO. Donaldson had a .278 BABIP (career .299) in 2014, would likely be moving into a stronger lineup, and would benefit from the Monster/friendlier hitting park. The one thing that makes me hesitate is his LD% dropping 6 percentage points from '13-'14, but it seems to be a result of added power, I dunno. He's already one of the best defensive 3B in the game, I highly doubt he wears down to the point of moving to 1B. Team control through 2019, or his age 34 season, I wouldn't count on it... Even though I've presented the possibility of Boston moving Swihart, due to the fact that he has the highest trade value of the non Mookie/Xander crowd, I think they can hang on to him and still get Donaldson. With the current retooling phase Billy Beane will be going through this offseason, combined with their strict salary cap restraints, Oakland is one team where "quantity" may come into play. No I'm not saying we could trade Renaldo, Coyle, Webster, Brentz, etc for Donaldson, but Oakland relies on new young pitching ever so frequently, and behind Cole, Parker, and Gray, are 2 years of Jesse Chavez, Kazmir at 1/$11 Samardzja in ARB-3 status, and maybe the worst farm system in baseball with 0 upper level pitching depth. So I think something along the lines of the would be reasonable: 2 of:Henry Owens Eduardo Rodriguez Rafael Devers Manny Margot Christian Vazquez 2 of:Allen Webster Brian Johnson Matt Barnes Garin Cecchini Deven Marerro Sean Coyle Will Middlebrooks Anthony Ranaudo 1 mid-level prospect:Wendell Rijo Henry Ramos Bryce Brentz Teddy Stank Travis Shaw say Josh Donaldson for: Eduardo Rodriguez Rafael Devers Matt Barnes Brian Johnson Travis Shaw Does that get it done? Would you do it?
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Post by artfuldodger on Oct 16, 2014 6:03:16 GMT -5
Donaldson is an interesting prospect because the A's could move him without the community revolting (unlike a Stanton). However, there are teams like the Cardinals (Tavares), Pirates (Polanco), or Dodgers (Pederson).who need an upgrade at 3b and have top prospects to make a trade. I do not believe your package of quantity would beat their quality.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 16, 2014 9:20:51 GMT -5
The Cardinals definitely do not need an upgrade at 3B - Carpenter had a very good season even without hitting for much power. But if the A's want established talent, something like Carpenter and Martinez for Donaldson would be something that could make some sense for both teams. That's particularly true if the Cardinals don't see Martinez as a starter. But I don't see the Cardinals dealing Taveras to upgrade a pretty good third base situation.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 16, 2014 15:40:10 GMT -5
I wouldn't give up Martinez right now. That kid looks like a future 3 maybe a 2, and a closer if all else fails. You'd be selling kind of low now.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 16, 2014 17:30:36 GMT -5
Including him in a deal for the best third baseman in baseball is hardly giving up on him. Also, in the previous post you suggested Taveras. Do you think Taveras has (or should have) less value than Martinez?
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Post by nomar on Oct 16, 2014 20:03:43 GMT -5
Including him in a deal for the best third baseman in baseball is hardly giving up on him. Also, in the previous post you suggested Taveras. Do you think Taveras has (or should have) less value than Martinez? When did I mention Taveras? I didn't. Thank you for the condescending tone though. Taveras is more valuable IMO, but that's beside the point. I think it makes more sense to trade Wong and move Carpenter back to 2B where he is comparable in value to Donaldson. Wong gets moved in a deal for a 3B. If the 3B is comparable in value to Wong (i.e. the given trade is fair), you have a 2B/3B situation just as good as Donaldson and Wong without moving a former Top 25 prospect in Martinez who has serious upside in a rotation that is going to need high upside talent as Wainwright ages. That's why I wouldn't make that trade as the Cardinals GM. I don't think this is an unreasonable opinion to have.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 16, 2014 20:59:30 GMT -5
I wasn't trying to be condescending - I was legitimately asking. Apologize for confusing you with the previous poster.
Carpenter is a better third baseman and has made it known that he's more comfortable there. There may be a short-term gain from playing him at second for a year or two but he really looks like he'll physically grow off the position pretty soon. He's not super quick afoot so I just don't see him lasting there into his 30's. I may be guilty of the bias against big second basemen, though.
The Cardinals have a ton of pitching depth. Wacha still has #2 upside and is much more of a sure thing than Martinez, though his stuff is less obviously electric. What sort of package would you offer the A's for Donaldson if you were the Cardinals? They have a lot of pieces but it's going to take a lot to trade for him - particularly since the A's aren't at all in a position where they need to move him.
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Post by nomar on Oct 17, 2014 8:58:25 GMT -5
I wasn't trying to be condescending - I was legitimately asking. Apologize for confusing you with the previous poster. Carpenter is a better third baseman and has made it known that he's more comfortable there. There may be a short-term gain from playing him at second for a year or two but he really looks like he'll physically grow off the position pretty soon. He's not super quick afoot so I just don't see him lasting there into his 30's. I may be guilty of the bias against big second basemen, though. The Cardinals have a ton of pitching depth. Wacha still has #2 upside and is much more of a sure thing than Martinez, though his stuff is less obviously electric. What sort of package would you offer the A's for Donaldson if you were the Cardinals? They have a lot of pieces but it's going to take a lot to trade for him - particularly since the A's aren't at all in a position where they need to move him. No problem man. But I guess I just feel like he's average at both positions, no better at either. He's not thick so I'm not sure he'll slow down to the point where he can't play second soon, but if that's the case that changes my opinion a bit. Assuming he can play 2nd, I'd try to offer something like Wong, Martinez, Piscotty If he can't, offering Carpenter + Piscotty sounds better to me than Martinez. With Piscotty you're getting an inexpensive, high floor COF who will probably consistently produce ~2 WAR seasons. I think Beane could appreciate that moreso than many other GMs. Keeping Wacha, Miller, Martinez, and Reyes in their system would be huge, because Waino could be on the decline, Lackey is old, and they probably will need/want 2 starters soon. Hoping for 2 of those 4 to stick is realistic and lower risk than 2 of 3. I think the upgrade they get from switching from Carpenter to Donaldson may not be worth getting rid of Martinez, but dealing Piscotty is reasonable because they would be dealing from an area of depth.
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Post by artfuldodger on Oct 18, 2014 8:20:42 GMT -5
I think that I inadvertently sidetracked the conversation when I mentioned Taveras. My main point was that the Red Sox will need to include a top prospect or young player to trade for Donaldson. A package of lesser prospects will not do it in my opinion. I think Donaldson would fit well at 3B for the Cards (similar to when the Cards got Rolen) with Carpenter moving to 2B or 1B. I think the Cards would be willing to include Taveras or other highly rated young player to make it happen.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 19:49:59 GMT -5
Oh my god this thread is filled with gems
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