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2014 Championships Series gameday thread
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 10, 2014 22:25:01 GMT -5
That makes me so pissed I'm not going to be home tomorrow night. Dont worry, it's tomorrow night. Well, fixed.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,414
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Post by ianrs on Oct 10, 2014 23:39:13 GMT -5
These Royals are just destined for the WS.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 11, 2014 0:01:11 GMT -5
There was absolutely no way to predict it. One bad bounce and they're done after the wild card game. You're calling them great based on results only. Yes, but one bad bounce and they don't stop being great. You're basing the hypothesis on results, as for me it was for the reasons listed. Same reasons that got them a win tonight. Great pen, fantastic (if mercurial) talent on offense and solid starters. Scratch the starter part, but James was never Big Game (but I wouldn't mind him on a Red Sox uniform, I have a thing for pitchers with great changeups).
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Post by redsox4242 on Oct 11, 2014 0:45:48 GMT -5
These Royals are just destined for the WS. And we beat them pretty good this season.
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Post by ethanbein on Oct 11, 2014 21:04:39 GMT -5
Anyone else watching the JABO broadcast? The commentary is definitely good but the split screen is hard to watch and they could definitely use a play-by-play guy.
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Post by bigpupp on Oct 11, 2014 21:50:13 GMT -5
It's rough around the edges but has some potential. It's just hard for them to show the appropriate stats they are talking about but not cover up the game.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 12, 2014 1:42:16 GMT -5
I wanted to make a post about how stats can't stop the Giants and the Royals from facing off in the WS, but then I realized how much I missed firejoemorgan.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,922
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2014 4:29:01 GMT -5
Anyone else watching the JABO broadcast? The commentary is definitely good but the split screen is hard to watch and they could definitely use a play-by-play guy. I actually watched each half-inning twice, first on Fox and then with the gang of anti-Harolds, since I was unwilling to give up either the great big picture or the very refreshing commentary. When Kapler went into his demonstration of how Jay draws HBP I was grinning, because I knew that he was about to be proved psychic. They should make the game box quite a bit bigger, basically about 3/4 size, upper right. Put the studio box small, in the lower left. To the left of the game and above the studio box, put the Win Probability at the top, then the FoxTrax box, and finish up with the basic sabermetric stats for the pitcher and hitter, like wRC+ and FIP -- both overall, and for the current opponent handedness. As much basic stuff as you can fit. To the right of the studio box and beneath the game, run interesting appropriate extra stats, more or less as they did, but just more (e.g., SB/CS for pitcher, catcher, and baserunner; hitting with RISP, ongoing streaks, etc.), plus a one-line stream of the closed-caption of the play-by-play, which you could ignore most of the time but look at during appropriate moments. And then have an alternate version with the game somewhat smaller and the studio box somewhat bigger, which you'd use when the studio guys were demonstrating something on the set.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 12, 2014 11:31:41 GMT -5
I wanted to make a post about how stats can't stop the Giants and the Royals from facing off in the WS, but then I realized how much I missed firejoemorgan. That's my cue to make a larger point. There's been a lot of angst on the board from the up and down seasons of Holt, Bogaerts and (mostly down) Bradley and Middlebrooks, along with mediocre enthusiasm for Vazquez at the plate. With KC and SF looking ready to push into the WS, let's take a look at their talent. I've been guilty in the past of dismissing some of that talent based on first impressions. Which is probably one of the reasons why no one from the front office calls me. Here are some playoff Giants who looked a lot smaller early on: Brandon Belt Year | Age | G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | 2011
| 23 | 63 | 209 | .225 | .306 | .412 | .718
| 103 |
Brandon Crawford Year | Age | G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | 2011
| 24 | 66 | 220 | .204 | .288 | .296 | .584
| 67
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While Belt's line is semi-passable if we ignore everything but the obvious power and some discipline, Crawford's stinks, there's no other way to put it. He's since become a reliable .250 bat which gives him weight at shortstop. Here are some of those Royal players we've been watching, guys who's numbers looked very common at the beginning: Eric Hosmer Year | Age | G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | 2011
| 21 | 128 | 563 | .293 | .334 | .465 | .799
| 118
| 2012
| 22 | 152 | 598 | .232 | .304 | .359 | .663
| 81
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Omar Infante Year | Age | G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | 2002
| 20 | 18 | 75 | .333 | .360 | .417 | .777
| 114
| 2003
| 21 | 69 | 244 | .222 | .278 | .258 | .536
| 48
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When Hosmer collapsed after his excellent rookie season, I'll admit I stopped paying attention even as he proceeded to build on that to become a good player. I also remember thinking to myself that Infante was at best a bad one. Not at all. He's become a very dependable hitter and while he's never had a high OBP, in the right lineup spot he's a nice addition given his contact skills. I'll bet the MFY would give anything to have him signed. Alex Gordon Year | Age | G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | 2007 | 23 | 151 | 601
| .247 | .314 | .411 | .725
| 90
| 2008
| 24 | 134
| 571
| .260
| .351 | .432 | .783
| 109
| 2009 | 25 | 49
| 189
| .232 | .324 | .378 | .703
| 87 | 2010
| 26 | 75
| 281 | .215 | .315 | .355 | .671
| 84
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This guy presents the starkest and clearest example of how any attempt at linear extrapolation can trash your analysis, completely. Realize this is after 1500 ML PAs. There are only faint signs of life in these numbers - there's some power in the first two years, and the patience to show a very good isolated discipline over the entire period. But overall this looks like a guy headed out of the league after his age 26 season. The real player emerged after that. Mike Moustakas Year | Age | G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | 2011 | 22 | 89
| 365
| .263 | .309 | .367 | .675
| 86 | 2012
| 23 | 149
| 614
| .242
| .296 | .412 | .708
| 91 | 2013 | 24 | 136
| 514
| .233 | .287 | .364 | .651
| 77 | 2014
| 25 | 140
| 500
| .212 | .271 | .361 | .632
| 74
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I know what you're thinking, that there's some kind of negative force field around third base in KC. That's where Gordon hung out for a while, and where Moustakas still makes his lving - or tries to. But right now he's busy pushing hard for playoff MVP - along with Lorenzo Cain who probably deserves a post all his own. Maybe he pulls a Gordon from here on out. At the very least he's helped his arbitration case and, who knows, there may be a big contract in his future as well. The takeway is easy: hitting a baseball is hard. It can take a while to smooth out the kinks, sometimes a long while. It's from that darkness that Josh Reddick and Brandon Moss emerged. Maybe that's where the next group of Sox players are hiding out right now. Everybody ready to take on that GMs job??
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 12, 2014 17:00:54 GMT -5
Wait a minute we're not seriously talking about Mike Moustakas like he's good now are we?
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Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2014 17:11:02 GMT -5
Wait a minute we're not seriously talking about Mike Moustakas like he's good now are we? Care to make the argument that he's not? Steamer projects him to be a three win player next year, and you can easily see its logic (even though I think it's a bit aggressive). His surface stats were bad this year, but that's because of a terrible .220 BABIP. Even with one of the worst batted ball profiles in the league (Moustakas hits a crazy amount of IFFB), that's going to regress positively going forward (he's got a career .260 BABIP). Meanwhile, he's improved his strikeout rate three years in a row (it's an excellent 14.8% this year) and has always drawn a decent number of walks and hit for a decent amount of power. Meanwhile, he's one of the better 3B defenders in the league and just turned 26 in September. He's not an All-Star or anything, but average-to-above-average regulars are certainly still very useful, even if the Royals dreamed for more when they drafted him second overall.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 12, 2014 21:45:39 GMT -5
Mike Moustakas was a prime buy low candidate. Too bad the post-season happened and we'll have another year enduring WMB contact lenses.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 13, 2014 9:52:15 GMT -5
Mike Moustakas was a prime buy low candidate. Too bad the post-season happened and we'll have another year enduring WMB contact lenses. Remember the WMB/Moose change of scenery swap that some people suggested a few months back? I'd have done it in a heartbeat. There is absolutely no way the Red Sox can go into 2015 counting on WMB as anything more than a platoon bat. ---- Quite a game last night. Rosenthal had zero idea where his pitches were going, and the loss of Molina cost several potential strike calls on the pitches he actually got near the zone. Earlier in the game, the Giants PH Morse who got an infield single. He then had to hold at third base on a slow ground ball into RF that 90% of MLB players score on. Can't really fault Bochy for not wanting to burn 2 players that early on, but it turned out to be quite a significant run.]
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 13, 2014 10:17:46 GMT -5
I wanted to make a post about how stats can't stop the Giants and the Royals from facing off in the WS, but then I realized how much I missed firejoemorgan. That's my cue to make a larger point.[...] The takeway is easy: hitting a baseball is hard. It can take a while to smooth out the kinks, sometimes a long while. The Cardinals game last night provided a glimpse at another reality of the Sox this year ... Kolten Wong and Oscar Taveras both had home runs. Both highly touted rookies, maybe roughly equivalent to JBJ and Bogaerts, respectively, in terms of expectations. And they both really didn't have good years. Taveras was more of half a year, but still ... and the Cardinals are in the LCS. Good teams can overcome rookies struggling in their first year and can cover for them a little bit. But the rest of the Red Sox team collapsed and left JBJ and Bogaerts completely exposed.
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pd
Rookie
Posts: 236
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Post by pd on Oct 13, 2014 12:41:33 GMT -5
That's my cue to make a larger point. I know what you're thinking, that there's some kind of negative force field around third base in KC. That's where Gordon hung out for a while, and where Moustakas still makes his lving - or tries to. But right now he's busy pushing hard for playoff MVP - along with Lorenzo Cain who probably deserves a post all his own. Maybe he pulls a Gordon from here on out. At the very least he's helped his arbitration case and, who knows, there may be a big contract in his future as well. The takeway is easy: hitting a baseball is hard. It can take a while to smooth out the kinks, sometimes a long while. It's from that darkness that Josh Reddick and Brandon Moss emerged. Maybe that's where the next group of Sox players are hiding out right now. Everybody ready to take on that GMs job?? Good perspective. I think this is where skilled scouting and a good set of eyes really steps in to put the numbers in context. Somebody in KC and SF is looking at these players and seeing the future.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 13, 2014 15:16:08 GMT -5
Anyone else watching the JABO broadcast? The commentary is definitely good but the split screen is hard to watch and they could definitely use a play-by-play guy. I actually watched each half-inning twice, first on Fox and then with the gang of anti-Harolds, since I was unwilling to give up either the great big picture or the very refreshing commentary. When Kapler went into his demonstration of how Jay draws HBP I was grinning, because I knew that he was about to be proved psychic. They should make the game box quite a bit bigger, basically about 3/4 size, upper right. Put the studio box small, in the lower left. To the left of the game and above the studio box, put the Win Probability at the top, then the FoxTrax box, and finish up with the basic sabermetric stats for the pitcher and hitter, like wRC+ and FIP -- both overall, and for the current opponent handedness. As much basic stuff as you can fit. To the right of the studio box and beneath the game, run interesting appropriate extra stats, more or less as they did, but just more (e.g., SB/CS for pitcher, catcher, and baserunner; hitting with RISP, ongoing streaks, etc.), plus a one-line stream of the closed-caption of the play-by-play, which you could ignore most of the time but look at during appropriate moments. And then have an alternate version with the game somewhat smaller and the studio box somewhat bigger, which you'd use when the studio guys were demonstrating something on the set. One thing I can say. I had friends over on Saturday night and put it on the background. We're all big baseball fans. Well it just doesn't work for background watching/listening at all because it requires 100% of your attention. I don't think anyone even knew the score at any point. Maybe it was the shots... But it really looked interesting.
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 13, 2014 17:11:09 GMT -5
Game 3 for the ALCS is rained out
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 13, 2014 20:29:30 GMT -5
Quite a game last night. Rosenthal had zero idea where his pitches were going, and the loss of Molina cost several potential strike calls on the pitches he actually got near the zone. Earlier in the game, the Giants PH Morse who got an infield single. He then had to hold at third base on a slow ground ball into RF that 90% of MLB players score on. Can't really fault Bochy for not wanting to burn 2 players that early on, but it turned out to be quite a significant run.] Makes me wonder what happened to Rosenthal. And I don't mean his numbers, I mean his everything. Last season he went fearlessly into the mound every single time, now he's struggling to keep his head up, being all scared all the time. He's not challenging guys, he's nibbling. I mean, there he was facing the mighty Joe Panik and you simply knew there was no way he was getting that out. Relievers are really volatile creatures even when the stuff remains solid.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 14, 2014 0:14:14 GMT -5
...The Cardinals game last night provided a glimpse at another reality of the Sox this year ... Kolten Wong and Oscar Taveras both had home runs. Both highly touted rookies, maybe roughly equivalent to JBJ and Bogaerts, respectively, in terms of expectations. And they both really didn't have good years. Taveras was more of half a year, but still ... and the Cardinals are in the LCS. Good teams can overcome rookies struggling in their first year and can cover for them a little bit. But the rest of the Red Sox team collapsed and left JBJ and Bogaerts completely exposed. That didn't escape me either. One of the big reasons why the Sox ended up with Craig is the churn it was causing to have Taveras and he splitting time in right field. Despite being another guy with a sub-.600 OPS this past season, he's got a monster bat. He's still struggling to identify pitches, but he'll kill low inside fastballs when he smells them coming. He'll get there in time. Injuries and some very poor roster decisions really hurt the Sox this season. I'm still trying to figure out why Nava was sent down. He hit almost .300 with a .750 OPS on his return, after losing close to a month of playing time. And for what, so that he could get "straightened out" in AAA at 30? Real foolishness, knee jerk stuff. A lot of guys would fold up the tent, but that's not his MO. He came back, kept his mouth shut, and picked up his bat. And while Bradley's hitting is messed up big time, it can't have helped to push him aside for Sizemore, only to shove him in there when the latter proved to be a mirage, and then push him aside again. The outfield looked undermanned from the get go, and it only got more so thanks to some of those choices. Victorino probably won't be a full time player next year, either, and to this day Gomes, with his .510 OPS against them in 2014, still can't hit right-handed pitching!
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 14, 2014 10:55:58 GMT -5
Earlier in the game, the Giants PH Morse who got an infield single. He then had to hold at third base on a slow ground ball into RF that 90% of MLB players score on. Can't really fault Bochy for not wanting to burn 2 players that early on, but it turned out to be quite a significant run.
The only move I can come up with is Bumgarner, PR for Morse.
Perhaps a few reasons why that wasn't happening and I have no idea if Bumgarner is an upgrade. Machi was the pitcher than came into Morse's lineup spot.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 11:12:05 GMT -5
Earlier in the game, the Giants PH Morse who got an infield single. He then had to hold at third base on a slow ground ball into RF that 90% of MLB players score on. Can't really fault Bochy for not wanting to burn 2 players that early on, but it turned out to be quite a significant run.
The only move I can come up with is Bumgarner, PR for Morse.
Perhaps a few reasons why that wasn't happening and I have no idea if Bumgarner is an upgrade. Machi was the pitcher than came into Morse's lineup spot.
Wendy Thurm on Twitter suggested the idea of PR'ing Lincecum, who absolutely is faster Morse.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2014 12:48:15 GMT -5
The only move I can come up with is Bumgarner, PR for Morse.
Perhaps a few reasons why that wasn't happening and I have no idea if Bumgarner is an upgrade. Machi was the pitcher than came into Morse's lineup spot.
Wendy Thurm on Twitter suggested the idea of PR'ing Lincecum, who absolutely is faster Morse. Remember when Buchholz got hurt (or nearly got hurt? I forget) pinch running? Now imagine that happens with your team's ace in an ALCS. No manager has the stones to do that, even if it is the right move. Hell, I don't think Belichick would do that. Maybe a little different in the NL, where Bumgarner would at least have comfort running the bases, but still, if anything goes wrong, holy hell.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 12:59:35 GMT -5
Wendy Thurm on Twitter suggested the idea of PR'ing Lincecum, who absolutely is faster Morse. Remember when Buchholz got hurt (or nearly got hurt? I forget) pinch running? Now imagine that happens with your team's ace in an ALCS. No manager has the stones to do that, even if it is the right move. Hell, I don't think Belichick would do that. Maybe a little different in the NL, where Bumgarner would at least have comfort running the bases, but still, if anything goes wrong, holy hell. Absolutely wouldn't use Bumgarner. Lincecum, though - why not? He's a 30-year-old coming off a 4.74 ERA season, has plenty of baserunning experience, and is serving as a long reliever. Re: that Buchholz pinch-running appearance, he completely screwed up reading the play and ended up cutting his hand and being tagged out.
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2014 13:41:00 GMT -5
With Lincecum, the issue is less injury risk and more inexperience. He's likely had little experience judging whether he could score from second on a single, and that's a vitally important skill you want that runner to have. Speed isn't everything in that situation.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 13:50:33 GMT -5
With Lincecum, the issue is less injury risk and more inexperience. He's likely had little experience judging whether he could score from second on a single, and that's a vitally important skill you want that runner to have. Speed isn't everything in that situation. Eh. Morse isn't a slow-ish but smart baserunner like Jonny Gomes. We're talking about a guy who can barely move to begin with, is less than 100% health-wise, and has typically been a poor all-around baserunner for his entire career. Put in Lincecum, who has at least some experience (he's scored 26 runs in his career), and let the third base coach advise him.
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