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FanGraphs Top 31 Red Sox Prospects
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 10:52:13 GMT -5
Very thorough look at the Red Sox organization from Kiley McDaniel and his new crew at Fangraphs: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-boston-red-sox/Lots of tool rankings, projection, and video. Here's the list, but the real value comes from the info provided for each of them: 50+ FV Prospects:1) Swihart, C 2) Rodriguez, LHP 3) Henry Owens, LHP 4) Rusney Castillo, CF 5) Manuel Margot, CF 6) Rafael Devers, 3B 7) Garin Cecchini, 3B 8) Brian Johnson, LHP 45 FV Prospects:9) Matt Barnes, RHP 10) Deven Marrero, SS 11) Michael Chavis, 3B 12) Michael Kopech, RHP 13) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP 14) Trey Ball, LHP 15) Sam Travis, 1B 16) Sean Coyle, 3B 17) Wendell Rijo, 2B 18) Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP 40 FV Prospects:19) Javier Guerra, SS 20) Anderson Espinoza, RHP 21) Bryce Brentz, LF 22) Travis Shaw, 1B 23) Henry Ramos, RF 24) Edwin Escobar, LHP 25) Drake Britton, LHP 26) Cody Kukuk, LHP 27) Simon Mercedes, RHP 28) Heath Hembree, RHP 29) Jason Garcia, RHP 30) Luis Diaz, RHP 31) Carlos Asuaje, 2B Special look: Reed Gragnani, 2B Plus additional notes on a whole lot more. He also provides a quick list of MLB growth assets ineligible for the main list: Big League Growth Assets1. Mookie Betts, 2B/CF, Age 22 2. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Age 22 3. Christian Vazquez, C, Age 24 4 .Jackie Bradley Jr., CF, Age 24 5. Allen Webster, RHP, Age 24 6. Rubby De La Rosa, RHP, Age 25 Figure there may be some surprise/discussion to be had with the ordering of the lower half of that list. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 14, 2014 11:29:26 GMT -5
A lot of good info. Including what the Tigers might have offered, which some people wanted to know.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 14, 2014 11:35:46 GMT -5
Really good read, lots of good info.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 14, 2014 12:16:06 GMT -5
Fascinating read.
Surprised there was no mention of Chris Acosta.
That's the first time I heard anyone refer to Brentz's arm as fringy. His SoxProspects profile page says he has a plus arm. It's at least above average. I wonder if they got that wrong or if they meant to say range. His fringy range may limit him to LF I could get on board with.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2014 12:39:02 GMT -5
Four posts and no mention of them using video we posted, eh? Killing me, you guys...
Hadn't even realized that McDaniel was with FG now. Excellent.
And I actually have no issue at all with his list. There are a few guys who I think are a smidge high or low, but I can imagine where he's coming from on all of them. Only exception is that I share iakovos's surprise about Acosta. I wasn't of the understanding that Espinoza was THAT far ahead of him, although Espinoza was definitely ahead by a little bit. I mean, by giving all those guys the same projections, he's essentially saying the order is fungible to some degree, which I agree with. Was there anything that stood out to you, Matt?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 14, 2014 12:49:17 GMT -5
He mention Acosta in the others section:
Edit: My thoughts on this is that I thought Espinoza had some separation from the rest, all July 2 arms, as his scouting report seemed like his stuff was a notch better and he had more feel for pitching, pitching in youth Venezuelan baseball etc. Who knows what happens in the next few years, probably a guy we haven't even heard of who signed for 50K turns out to be the best arm of the class, but Espinoza's short coming as a July 2 prospect was his size other than that he had all the ingredients.
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 14, 2014 13:21:32 GMT -5
" One Red Sox source said some in the org have Kopech in their top 5, though others have him lower than I do."
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 14, 2014 13:27:50 GMT -5
I found their analysis of Cecchini particularly interesting in light of all the consternation about 3B. They make him seem like the best solution, at least until Devers or Chavis arrive.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 13:35:44 GMT -5
Four posts and no mention of them using video we posted, eh? Killing me, you guys... Hadn't even realized that McDaniel was with FG now. Excellent. And I actually have no issue at all with his list. There are a few guys who I think are a smidge high or low, but I can imagine where he's coming from on all of them. Only exception is that I share iakovos's surprise about Acosta. I wasn't of the understanding that Espinoza was THAT far ahead of him, although Espinoza was definitely ahead by a little bit. I mean, by giving all those guys the same projections, he's essentially saying the order is fungible to some degree, which I agree with. Was there anything that stood out to you, Matt? Yeah, it's great to have Kiley over there now. Tons of free, substantive content. Prospects coverage was a major shortcoming at FG before his arrival, IMO. He overhauled everything (not that there was too much to uproot). Not any major quibbles. A few comments: - Love the aggressive placement of Rodriguez -- I'm extremely excited about him, and believe he very well could emerge in 2015 as a step above Owens. - Agree that both Barnes and Kopech ahead of Ranaudo is the right call. Eight games of rookie ball and all for Kopech, but it's not even that close for me. Ranaudo at best is a decent number 4 type. - I'm a Cecchini fan, believing he's a capable option to trot out in 2015, but Johnson and Chavis need to be in front of him at this point. Regardless, nice to hear someone reinforce his ability to stick at third, and not fret over the AAA power display. - Really, the main thing that stuck out to me was that there was zero mention of Alex Hassan. I'm significantly higher on him than Brentz, as I feel his plate approach (and ability to play a little first base) will help him be a much more effective part time player. Brentz is an eh LF who may slug .500 against lefties, but will throw up a (sub?) .300 OBP if he gets any decent amount of time against righties. As for the Brentz arm comment, that's extremely off base. The guy throws missiles. - He notes that Longhi barely missed, yet Travis cracks the top 15 and Shaw is at 22? I think there's a case to be made for Longhi ranking right there with them - I feel like I could rank them within any order depending on the day, all in the 18-22 area, certainly ahead of the likes of Brentz, Ramos, Britton, and even Stank. Definitely going to give this a closer read when I'm home from work. Didn't click any videos, so don't think I obliviously watched and glossed by passed having some SP one's in there! |
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 14, 2014 14:21:17 GMT -5
Fascinating read. Surprised there was no mention of Chris Acosta. That's the first time I heard anyone refer to Brentz's arm as fringy. His SoxProspects profile page says he has a plus arm. It's at least above average. I wonder if they got that wrong or if they meant to say range. His fringy range may limit him to LF I could get on board with. Well compared to Castillo, Bradley & Mookie his range may be fringy. His arm is DEFINITELY not fringy. |
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 14, 2014 14:41:19 GMT -5
- He notes that Longhi barely missed, yet Travis cracks the top 15 and Shaw is at 22? I think there's a case to be made for Longhi ranking right there with them - I feel like I could rank them within any order depending on the day, all in the 18-22 area, certainly ahead of the likes of Brentz, Ramos, Britton, and even Stank. Was just coming on to post that this was something that stood out to me as well. I think he's too low on Longhi, but it's worth noting that McDaniel does a ton of amateur scouting, and that I was much more impressed with Longhi's swing when I saw him this year than I was from all of the video I saw of him in high school. Last year I was definitely lower than most were on Longhi because I saw too many swings from him where he got his weight out too early and rolled over the ball. That was very much not the case when I saw him this year. I saw him staying back and driving through and generating some serious pop. So if McDaniel still has the HS version of Longhi in his mind I can totally understand that lower ranking. In general it's a very good list. The one thing I think he's dead wrong about is Webster ahead of De La Rosa. I can't see any justification for that. De La Rosa is simply a much better pitcher. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 14, 2014 14:47:41 GMT -5
Also worth noting McDaniel said Chavis had plus power and didn't mention the hit tool which I think has been the more impressive of the two so far. Alludes to the theory that maybe she hasn't seen much of him outside of amateur ball. If Chavis ends up having plus power in game he'll be an animal.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Oct 14, 2014 14:58:59 GMT -5
I liked the fact that he ranked Rusney Castillo. I look at Castillo as a top 10 overall draft pick or a top 5 overall international signing.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 14, 2014 15:55:14 GMT -5
Also worth noting McDaniel said Chavis had plus power and didn't mention the hit tool which I think has been the more impressive of the two so far. Alludes to the theory that maybe she hasn't seen much of him outside of amateur ball. If Chavis ends up having plus power in game he'll be an animal. Despite the name, Kiley is a guy.  |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 14, 2014 16:22:35 GMT -5
He mention Acosta in the others section: Edit: My thoughts on this is that I thought Espinoza had some separation from the rest, all July 2 arms, as his scouting report seemed like his stuff was a notch better and he had more feel for pitching, pitching in youth Venezuelan baseball etc. Who knows what happens in the next few years, probably a guy we haven't even heard of who signed for 50K turns out to be the best arm of the class, but Espinoza's short coming as a July 2 prospect was his size other than that he had all the ingredients. Also interesting that he singled out Elwin Tejada as another international prospect to keep an eye on. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2014 17:01:11 GMT -5
it's worth noting that McDaniel does a ton of amateur scouting Great point, driven home when you realize a lot of this video is from when guys were amateurs. Speaks to his familiarity with that side of things. Longhi's absence did stick out to me, but I figured it may be due in large part to what, for his being two years into his pro career, is still a very small sample size. |
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Post by ramireja on Oct 14, 2014 17:24:17 GMT -5
It was also interesting to read that some consider Jeff Driskel to be Florida's best baseball prospect. Can someone with football knowledge let us know what his chances of an NFL career look like? In other words, any chance we ever see this guy in our org?
Overall, loved this review. It might be hard to find a better one all offseason. The Guerra hype train continues to roll along. Also, happy to see that our new draft picks (Chavis, Kopech, and Travis) all impressed at instructs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2014 18:07:36 GMT -5
It was also interesting to read that some consider Jeff Driskel to be Florida's best baseball prospect. Can someone with football knowledge let us know what his chances of an NFL career look like? In other words, any chance we ever see this guy in our org? NFL unlikely (as you'll see in the relevant thread on the board, he basically lost his job to a freshman but then got it back when the frosh got in trouble off the field), but his ever playing baseball also probably unlikely. Note that he doesn't even play at UF. If he does play baseball, it'll be after 3-4 years of not touching a ball or bat. |
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Post by mgoetze on Oct 14, 2014 20:18:28 GMT -5
Welp, looks like the Steven Wright Haters Club has a new member.
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2014 21:09:53 GMT -5
A few other random notes:
-He has Owens down as still having plenty of projection, with the potential to add a tick or two to his fastball and improve his command as he grows into his body. That's not something we've heard much this year, and it's a reminder that though he's on the cusp of the majors, he's not necessarily a finished product. He also notes that Owens has good command and movement on his fastball, which I've also not seen much of.
-His median projection of Castillo as an average-to-better defensive centerfielder who hits .260/.270 with 15-20 home runs would make him a three to four win player. Think Shane Victorino circa 2010: .259/.327/.429 with 18 home runs and +1.3 UZR, worth 3.2 fWAR (Victorino was an elite baserunner that year (34 of 40 stolen bases, etc.), which Castillo doesn't project to provide, but the change in offensive environment since then compensates for that). If that turns out to be the case, the Castillo contract was one hell of a steal.
-McDaniel reiterates the fact that Devers looks more like a plus hit/plus power guy than a Chris Davis-esque plus-plus power but below-average hit tool guy. He might not ever crack 30 home runs, but he'll hit .280 while hitting 20-25 a year. Think Aramis Ramirez, not Pedro Alvarez.
-It's slightly surprising to hear McDaniel rate Barnes' fastball command as below-average, since I've always thought of him as the one guy in that RDLR/Webster/Ranaudo group with above-average fastball command.
-The tidbit about Chavis drawing rave reviews in instructs was good to hear. He could jump up the list with a good season next year.
-Hembree continues to slide from "future close" to "sixth/seventh-inning reliever." Call it Alex Wilson disease.
-Gerson Bautista is listed as having 92-94, touching 96 in the DSL-- that's a guy to watch.
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2014 22:00:18 GMT -5
Kiley writes the following in the comments, in response to a few questions:
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2014 22:17:40 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 22:23:53 GMT -5
I do recall seeing Brentz come up throwing on one play in September for the Red Sox, and he didn't unleash the rocket I'd expected to see. Still, I saw him make several very strong throws throughout the 2014 season in Pawtucket that make it hard for me to believe he has anything less than a 60 arm.
Nothing like scrolling down the FanGraphs comments and spotting none other than Eric M. Van campaigning for Steven Wright!
Also, sharing this 100% troll comment, because that second sentence is just too epic:
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 14, 2014 23:53:21 GMT -5
Also, sharing this 100% troll comment, because that second sentence is just too epic: I get this is a troll comment, but it's truly remarkable in the sense that I can't think about two catchers that are more different from each other than Swihart and Arrencibia. I want some of what he's having there. |
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 15, 2014 7:42:22 GMT -5
Nothing like scrolling down the FanGraphs comments and spotting none other than Eric M. Van campaigning for Steven Wright! Eric, why aren't you writing for fangraphs? |
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