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Post by jmei on Oct 16, 2014 15:42:02 GMT -5
I would think this offseason is a good time to trade Johnson. That's a different topic though. Also I wouldnt call Chavis low ceiling. He could be an all star 3B or 2B if he approaches his ceiling. Good raw power, good hit tool, sneaky speed, draws walks. Well see how his glove is but he's got the potential to be a stud. Can't play short or CF Remember, pretty much every established measure of positional adjustments has 3B/2B about on par with CF. Moreover, the league-average 3B has hit worse than the league-average CF this year. You might have a point if he was a first baseman or corner outfielder, but third base is higher on the defensive spectrum than you're giving it credit.
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 16, 2014 15:52:38 GMT -5
So the player some people say had the best hit tool in the draft doesn't have the tools of the guys drafted before him?
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 16, 2014 16:07:41 GMT -5
You Know whats funny they went back and graded the draft from 5 years ago. We only got a C or D because that's the draft we only have Alex Wilson and a couple of low level prospects left. It was a pretty bad year. That's in the same issue. Very interesting.
Regarding our draft this year BA loved our 1st day of drafting. But it is interesting that they ranked us number 3.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 16, 2014 16:28:13 GMT -5
I still firmly believe if he didn't go through that rough stretch of 30 or so ABs, Chavis would be getting huge hype. Maybe I'm just high on him but I think there's a good chance he ends up with a very good stick at a difficult defensive position, and I'm willing to bet that between 3B and 2B he's at least an average defender at one of them, probably even better. It's good that he won't have that "top prospect" pressure on him next year though.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 16, 2014 21:04:58 GMT -5
I still firmly believe if he didn't go through that rough stretch of 30 or so ABs, Chavis would be getting huge hype. Maybe I'm just high on him but I think there's a good chance he ends up with a very good stick at a difficult defensive position, and I'm willing to bet that between 3B and 2B he's at least an average defender at one of them, probably even better. It's good that he won't have that "top prospect" pressure on him next year though. I am not so sure that the 30 bad at bats is affecting his grade. I think his grade is quite adequate for how he currently projects.
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Post by moonstone2 on Oct 16, 2014 23:06:54 GMT -5
I still firmly believe if he didn't go through that rough stretch of 30 or so ABs, Chavis would be getting huge hype. Maybe I'm just high on him but I think there's a good chance he ends up with a very good stick at a difficult defensive position, and I'm willing to bet that between 3B and 2B he's at least an average defender at one of them, probably even better. It's good that he won't have that "top prospect" pressure on him next year though. I am not so sure that the 30 bad at bats is affecting his grade. I think his grade is quite adequate for how he currently projects. I have to agree with Larry here. It's mire that he doesn't have crazy tools and is more of a 3b. At 3b he's going to need an above average hit tool to play and that's the hardest tool to project.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 17, 2014 12:19:21 GMT -5
I understand that, but without that stretch his OPS was like .950 and if that were the case I bet he'd garner more attention and a higher rank.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2014 13:29:24 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 17, 2014 13:36:20 GMT -5
With some time to reflect on this, I'm actually pretty surprised Pennington is on there. BA had him ranked #401 on their top 500. Kind of random for him to suddenly be the second-best late-round pick, which they define as 11th round or later. Compare that with, say, Fisher, who was selected in the 20th round and ranked in the top 200, and, y'know, didn't have Tommy John. Whitson, Beeks, Shepherd, and Kemp were all ranked ahead of Pennington entering the draft as well. Probably speaks a lot to the fact that the current draft regime has more-or-less set things up that the talent gets picked where it's supposed to, with the exception of players who legitimately are not going to sign. Although, it's random enough that I'm beginning to wonder if that's a mistake or something.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2014 13:48:24 GMT -5
It made me wonder if they know something post TJ.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 17, 2014 13:51:51 GMT -5
It made me wonder if they know something post TJ. Like what though? There's no way he's even throwing yet. Definitely get where you're coming from, but timeline doesn't work. I'd had a similar thought for a moment.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2014 14:00:13 GMT -5
I don't know when he had his surgery and what the timeline would be for first bullpens (or if that timeline varies) but I specifically remember Drake Britton blowing everyone away with his first bullpens after surgery. He had a significant velocity increase and commanded his curve well (relative to age).
LOL, the mini avatar looks more like Marilyn and the bigger avatar looks like Albert. For reference, the full screen version is one of the most amazing optical illusions I've ever seen but I have to walk to the end of the hall to see Marilyn.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2014 14:19:47 GMT -5
I'd bet a box of Filipino donuts that Aaron Kurcz hits triple digits next year.
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Post by moonstone2 on Oct 17, 2014 16:46:51 GMT -5
There are zero prospects in the current system with plus plus power, including Devers. There are no third baseman who played major league baseball in 2014 that have plus plus power. Even if Chavis does move off of short, that's not the standard. Chavis's upside is something like a dozen-time All-Star who gets Hall of Fame votes. So yeah, high upside. If he realistically had that upside he would have been a top ten pick and he'd certainly be a top ten in the system. All I was trying to say is that he doesn't really have crazy tools, and isn't all that projectable. Yes I know you can be a pretty good player without crazy tools with hard work and a high baseball IQ, but let's have him play full season ball before we declare him to be a perrenial all-star. There's a reason he ranks below Devers.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 17, 2014 17:06:26 GMT -5
He could have 6 hit and power tools, what do most stars have? Chavis isn't projectable/won't fill out much more, but the potential is there.
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Post by jmei on Oct 17, 2014 18:02:43 GMT -5
Honestly, this thread illustrates why I think the concepts of floor and ceiling are less useful than they're commonly given credit for. Those terms mean different things to different people, and even in the best of cases, the way you define it is mostly arbitrary.
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Post by moonstone2 on Oct 17, 2014 22:49:38 GMT -5
He could have 6 hit and power tools, what do most stars have? Chavis isn't projectable/won't fill out much more, but the potential is there. Stars usually have at least one seven tool. But if he's six hit, he can play every day even as a 3b. The problem is that the hit tool is the hardest tool to project. That's why he ranks where he does. I like Chavis as a prospect because he appears to be really advanced for his age and is probably as low a risk a high school player you can find. He's more like a college guy in that way. It's almost a certainty that he will play in the majors. That's why I thought he was a good pair with Koppech. Koppech has crazy tools great projection but has a lot to learn.and is very high risk.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 17, 2014 23:50:51 GMT -5
Chvis looks to me like a guy who matured physically early. I don't think there is a ton of physical projection left in his body. He is already probably is what he will become physically. I do like his confidence level though and his personality. I' not thrilled with the pick. I like Kopech as a pick though.
I don't know how that was a top 3 draft but I think they did well overall.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 18, 2014 1:26:38 GMT -5
Not so sure the Red Sox did so well as the rest of the league did so bad, or below average in 2014.
While it looks like the picks could end up as the best since the 2011 class and easily better than anything they took in 2012, it still looks like they are changing strategies from year to year as to how to approach the draft under the new rules with the limited caps. Maybe it is hindering other teams a bit more and their approach to picking talent.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2014 3:25:50 GMT -5
Not so sure the Red Sox did so well as the rest of the league did so bad, or below average in 2014. While it looks like the picks could end up as the best since the 2011 class and easily better than anything they took in 2012, it still looks like they are changing strategies from year to year as to how to approach the draft under the new rules with the limited caps. Maybe it is hindering other teams a bit more and their approach to picking talent. That would only really make sense if an inordinate amount of well regarded players went undrafted or unsigned which wasn't the case. No matter how you slice the cake, the pool of players is there within the MLB teams. Just because team A is having issues doesn't mean player B isn't there.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 18, 2014 7:19:07 GMT -5
Not so sure the Red Sox did so well as the rest of the league did so bad, or below average in 2014. This is an epistemology nightmare. If everyone was below average, where's the average coming from?
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2014 9:21:27 GMT -5
He could have 6 hit and power tools, what do most stars have? Chavis isn't projectable/won't fill out much more, but the potential is there. Stars usually have at least one seven tool. But if he's six hit, he can play every day even as a 3b. The problem is that the hit tool is the hardest tool to project. That's why he ranks where he does. I like Chavis as a prospect because he appears to be really advanced for his age and is probably as low a risk a high school player you can find. He's more like a college guy in that way. It's almost a certainty that he will play in the majors. That's why I thought he was a good pair with Koppech. Koppech has crazy tools great projection but has a lot to learn.and is very high risk. How many high school draft picks have a 7 hit or power tool at the time they are drafted without other glaring deficiencies? I guess you're disappointed we didn't draft Ted Williams at 26? Even the top position player drafted in 2014 at 4th overall, 21 year old Kyle Schwarber doesn't have a 7. The top high school bat, Alex Jackson at 6th, didn't have a 7.
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Post by moonstone2 on Oct 18, 2014 11:50:27 GMT -5
Stars usually have at least one seven tool. But if he's six hit, he can play every day even as a 3b. The problem is that the hit tool is the hardest tool to project. That's why he ranks where he does. I like Chavis as a prospect because he appears to be really advanced for his age and is probably as low a risk a high school player you can find. He's more like a college guy in that way. It's almost a certainty that he will play in the majors. That's why I thought he was a good pair with Koppech. Koppech has crazy tools great projection but has a lot to learn.and is very high risk. How many high school draft picks have a 7 hit or power tool at the time they are drafted without other glaring deficiencies? I guess you're disappointed we didn't draft Ted Williams at 26? Even the top position player drafted in 2014 at 4th overall, 21 year old Kyle Schwarber doesn't have a 7. The top high school bat, Alex Jackson at 6th, didn't have a 7. Jimed.....you obviously didn't bother to read what I wrote so I will say it again. I am not dissapointed in the pick at all.and I think he's a solid prospect. He just doesn't have the tools or projection of some other prospects in the draft or the system which he why he ranks where he does. He is still a good prospect because he is very advanced. I think we ought to be able to have a constructive conversation about a prospect's strenghth's and weaknesses without half the board throwing a hissy fit. But it appears that many of you just want to use the board for cheerleading and will throw a fit if a prospect's weaknesses are discussed.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 18, 2014 13:37:52 GMT -5
Well if you think just because Chavis isn't going to fill out much more that makes him low ceiling, you're wrong. He has a high ceiling, it's as simple as that IMO.
What weakness has he shown? His size? Come on, saying someone is high ceiling is far from being a cheerleader. Nobody knows what he could be but his potential is pretty damn good and we've only seen him in short season ball. He isn't Deven Marrero, who in my opinion is the epitome of a high floor/low ceiling pick.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2014 13:38:22 GMT -5
How many high school draft picks have a 7 hit or power tool at the time they are drafted without other glaring deficiencies? I guess you're disappointed we didn't draft Ted Williams at 26? Even the top position player drafted in 2014 at 4th overall, 21 year old Kyle Schwarber doesn't have a 7. The top high school bat, Alex Jackson at 6th, didn't have a 7. Jimed.....you obviously didn't bother to read what I wrote so I will say it again. I am not dissapointed in the pick at all.and I think he's a solid prospect. He just doesn't have the tools or projection of some other prospects in the draft or the system which he why he ranks where he does. He is still a good prospect because he is very advanced. I think we ought to be able to have a constructive conversation about a prospect's strenghth's and weaknesses without half the board throwing a hissy fit. But it appears that many of you just want to use the board for cheerleading and will throw a fit if a prospect's weaknesses are discussed. There is nothing constructive about being negative about him not having plus-plus power and talking about how most 1st round picks have a potential 7 hit or power tool when almost none do - ever. This reply is a reply to multiple posts you've had in this thread about most first round picks have a chance to be a star but Chavis doesn't because he doesn't have plus-plus power. And then you said most stars have a 7 tool. And newsflash, anyone with a 6 hit and 6 power is a star in the majors, even if they're a DH.
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