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Red Sox re-sign Koji Uehara for two years, $18m
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 30, 2014 16:04:07 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp Red Sox announce two-year contract extension with Koji Uehara, avoiding having to make a decision on the qualifying offer.
Alex Speier ?@alexspeier Two years, $18M for Koji Uehara.
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Post by youngbillrussell on Oct 30, 2014 16:10:35 GMT -5
Red Sox working quick can't not like Koji Uehara for 2 for 18. Glad we can cross off closer of the list of needs this offseason as well.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 30, 2014 16:24:04 GMT -5
Can't beat the deal on Koji, even if father time catches up to him.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Oct 30, 2014 16:25:36 GMT -5
so cross off presumably 9 million off the 55.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 30, 2014 17:45:20 GMT -5
Solid deal. There were reports out there they were considering offering him a qualifying offer. This two year deal brings the AAV down considerably.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 30, 2014 17:47:23 GMT -5
It makes him the 3rd highest paid closer for 2015 - with Robertson still to be paid. It's an expensive contract relative to his position.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 30, 2014 17:51:20 GMT -5
It makes him the 3rd highest paid closer for 2015 - with Robertson still to be paid. It's an expensive contract relative to his position. True, he's also much better than the average closer. Among relief pitchers, he's second in WAR after Greg Holland over the past two seasons. I know you pay for future performance an not for past performance, but he's been nothing short of amazing. Contracts are getting bigger all over the league. Wait till you see what Miller gets. Edit: That said, I think we should fill out the rest of the bullpen from within. Ranaudo, Workman and Webster all should be in the conversation to convert to relievers IMO.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 30, 2014 18:07:47 GMT -5
$5 bump for Koji, but drop of $4 for Breslow and $2 for Badenhop.
If they decide to fill the rest of the pen from within, which is certainly a possibility, it's not much of a difference in terms of net bullpen cost.
But I still think they could end up with Miller, though more likely snagging someone else in the $2-3 range
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Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2014 18:36:14 GMT -5
Actually my first thought was "Great for Koji and us, but say good-bye to any chance of re-signing Miller."
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Oct 30, 2014 18:40:12 GMT -5
Koji likes Boston and the fans like Koji. He really brings more than numbers to the team. He is very positive and energetic. He could of gotten better offers in free agency.
There are a lot of solid relievers available this year. I can see us signing another bullpen arm later on in the free agency period.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2014 18:43:36 GMT -5
Cherry-picking but love this stat:
@brianmacp · 2h 2 hours ago Mariano Rivera had a lifetime K/BB ratio of 4.10. Koji Uehara has a lifetime K/BB ratio of 8.96.
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Post by moonstone2 on Oct 30, 2014 18:47:27 GMT -5
Is there anyone here who doesn't think this is such a hot idea?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 30, 2014 18:50:10 GMT -5
$5 bump for Koji, but drop of $4 for Breslow and $2 for Badenhop. If they decide to fill the rest of the pen from within, which is certainly a possibility, it's not much of a difference in terms of net bullpen cost. But I still think they could end up with Miller, though more likely snagging someone else in the $2-3 range Personally, I hope they resign Badenhop. He was more than adequate as a middle reliever. He is the sort of guy who needs good infield defense, and we watched a few of the grounders he induced poke through the infield. But when you need a DP, he's the man.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 30, 2014 18:52:02 GMT -5
Hate to be the Debbie Downer but $9 million for Koji in 2016, when he'll be 41, doesn't seem like a great bet, especially taking his collapse this past season into account. I would have preferred paying closer money to Miller (3 years/$27 million? Maybe a little more?) I think he has a better chance of being a stud in the third year of his deal than Koji does in the second year of his.
The bright side? We all (including me) love Koji!
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 30, 2014 18:59:53 GMT -5
Is there anyone here who doesn't think this is such a hot idea? Your not the only one and it has a level of risk that is surprising. Everyone loves Koji and he has been great. Hopefully it will continue
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 30, 2014 19:02:46 GMT -5
Actually my first thought was "Great for Koji and us, but say good-bye to any chance of re-signing Miller." In a twisted way that makes me like the contract even more. Uehara plus a much less expensive veteran arm like Gorzelanny is a better buy than Miller. Nice to see Uehara get paid, and it's a reasonable contract. $9 million isn't cheap for a reliever, but as a general rule I'm in favor of two-year commitments to players who are good.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 30, 2014 19:27:13 GMT -5
$5 bump for Koji, but drop of $4 for Breslow and $2 for Badenhop. If they decide to fill the rest of the pen from within, which is certainly a possibility, it's not much of a difference in terms of net bullpen cost. But I still think they could end up with Miller, though more likely snagging someone else in the $2-3 range Houston has already declined the 3m club option on old friend Matty Albers.. Maybe Boston offers him half that for a return trip to fenway? He's been quietly solid last 3y in the middle innings.
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Post by oregonbutnotnorm on Oct 30, 2014 20:19:07 GMT -5
Is there anyone here who doesn't think this is such a hot idea? Your not the only one and it has a level of risk that is surprising. Everyone loves Koji and he has been great. Hopefully it will continue I'm in that boat. I don't think there are ANY closers worth 18/2. Awful lot of money to spend for 70 innings a year, particularly at age 40.
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Post by jmei on Oct 30, 2014 20:19:07 GMT -5
Is there anyone here who doesn't think this is such a hot idea? Your not the only one and it has a level of risk that is surprising. Everyone loves Koji and he has been great. Hopefully it will continue A two-year deal for Uehara is lower-risk than a four-year deal for Miller or Robertson at a similar AAV (which is what it's going to take to ink those guys). Age is an issue in terms of injury and performance risk, but that's why it's only two years and at a low AAV. Plus, for a team with the payroll capability of the Red Sox, this kind of short-term deal is eminently bearable even if he pulls a Joe Nathan (who, by the way, got 2/$20m last year despite being of a similar age but the clearly inferior pitcher).
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Post by jmei on Oct 30, 2014 20:24:22 GMT -5
Your not the only one and it has a level of risk that is surprising. Everyone loves Koji and he has been great. Hopefully it will continue I'm in that boat. I don't think there are ANY closers worth 18/2. Awful lot of money to spend for 70 innings a year, particularly at age 40. Even by the $/WAR calculations that may systematically underrate high-leverage relievers, it's not too difficult for a closer to be worth $9m a year. Koji just has to put up more than 1.3 wins a year (assuming $7m $/WAR, which is the going rate I've been using), which he's done in every full season he's thrown in his career.
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Post by oregonbutnotnorm on Oct 30, 2014 20:37:20 GMT -5
I'm in that boat. I don't think there are ANY closers worth 18/2. Awful lot of money to spend for 70 innings a year, particularly at age 40. Even by the $/WAR calculations that may systematically underrate high-leverage relievers, it's not too difficult for a closer to be worth $9m a year. Koji just has to put up more than 1.3 wins a year (assuming $7m $/WAR, which is the going rate I've been using), which he's done in every full season he's thrown in his career. I'm not trying to kick the hornet's nest, but I don't value WAR as an accurate advanced metric for either batters or pitchers. I also don't mean to understate how terrific Uehara has been. My train of thought is extrapolating innings (70ish) to dollars. This would be like paying a starter $27mil a year. There is exactly one pitcher worth that kind of money, and he plays for the Dodgers (I'm ignoring his post-season futility).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 30, 2014 20:42:15 GMT -5
2/$15m is about what I would have said I'm happy about. 2/$18m is reasonable and we still have Mujica who was looking like his old self down the stretch.
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Post by jmei on Oct 30, 2014 20:53:23 GMT -5
Even by the $/WAR calculations that may systematically underrate high-leverage relievers, it's not too difficult for a closer to be worth $9m a year. Koji just has to put up more than 1.3 wins a year (assuming $7m $/WAR, which is the going rate I've been using), which he's done in every full season he's thrown in his career. I'm not trying to kick the hornet's nest, but I don't value WAR as an accurate advanced metric for either batters or pitchers. I also don't mean to understate how terrific Uehara has been. My train of thought is extrapolating innings (70ish) to dollars. This would be like paying a starter $27mil a year. There is exactly one pitcher worth that kind of money, and he plays for the Dodgers (I'm ignoring his post-season futility). I'm actually glad you made this comparison. Here's Koji Uehara versus Clayton Kershaw, rate stats only, last two years:
| Koji | Clayton | ERA | 1.75 | 1.80 | WHIP | 0.73 | 0.89 | K/9 | 11.75 | 9.76 | BB/9 | 1.10 | 1.72 | ERA- (lower is better)
| 43 | 51 | FIP- (lower is better)
| 57 | 59 | SIERA | 1.55 | 2.57 |
On a per-inning basis, Koji has absolutely been better than Kershaw since Uehara joined the Red Sox. Even going forward, Uehara's Steamer-projected 2.38 ERA/2.87 FIP is roughly on par with Kershaw's Steamer-projected 2.53 ERA/2.63 FIP. If you would give Kershaw $30m a year (which we should all be willing to do), then $9m a year for Koji is certainly reasonable.
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Post by moonstone2 on Oct 30, 2014 21:21:56 GMT -5
Your not the only one and it has a level of risk that is surprising. Everyone loves Koji and he has been great. Hopefully it will continue A two-year deal for Uehara is lower-risk than a four-year deal for Miller or Robertson at a similar AAV (which is what it's going to take to ink those guys). Age is an issue in terms of injury and performance risk, but that's why it's only two years and at a low AAV. Plus, for a team with the payroll capability of the Red Sox, this kind of short-term deal is eminently bearable even if he pulls a Joe Nathan (who, by the way, got 2/$20m last year despite being of a similar age but the clearly inferior pitcher). I don't buy that because other deals were worse, this was a wise deal. Nor do I buy that the only alternative was a n expensive late inning reliever. If there is one thing we've learned about relievers is that you don't sign them to big contracts. They are extremely risky, especially if they are older. Uehara also had a long stretch where he couldn't get anyone out. Besides, finding top relievers rarely comes by design. Uehara himself was the Red Sox fourth option for the closer position in 2013. The KC Royals had the best bullpen in baseball based upon a failed starter, a mediocre starter at a non-major college conference drafted in the 10th round, and a international free agent who signed for under 30k. I would love to see a study seeing how far your money actually goes when you spend it on the bullpen. My guess is that KC is not unusual and the best bullpens are always filled with guys who are young and weren't all that widely heralded when acquired.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 30, 2014 21:35:35 GMT -5
The whole key to this deal is how many innings does koji work next season. Too many, especially early and he could run out of gas by august again.
I just think it is a lot of money for a guy that they may have to limit the innings for .
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