Red Sox re-sign Koji Uehara for two years, $18m

Definitely some risk here. I'm of the mind that relievers as a whole tend to be inherently volatile. There are very few who maintain excellence over an extended period.

However, Uehara has done exactly that. He's been outstanding in all five seasons in which he has thrown out of the bullpen. His averages over those five seasons: 2.06 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 5.7 H/9, 1.1 BB/9, 11.5 K/9. His lowest single-season K/9 was 10.8 in 2012. His highest single-season BB/9 is 1.2 in 2011. Seriously, go look at his numbers - it's kind of crazy that he wasn't closing before the Red Sox signed him.

(FWIW, I will acknowledge that he fell apart completely in the playoffs with Texas in 2011, but at this point I think he has earned his playoff bona fides back.)

And by the way, the bad stretch he had near the end of the year? It's easy to forget (I did too, in fact), but it was all of six games. Six games. And he recovered with three scoreless one-inning appearances to end the season. There was no change in his velocity at any point, and to my naked eye at least, it doesn't look like the movement changed in any significant way on his pitches. (Interestingly, his struggles came after a stretch of games in which he apparently messed around with a cutter, per Brooksbaseball - no idea if that means anything. Could just be statistical noise too.).

Age could certainly be an issue, and it's certainly a bit more money than you'd want to spend on a reliever as a general proposition. However, I'd also rather spend that money on a two-year commitment than a three- or four-year deal on Miller, who doesn't have nearly Uehara's track record, even if he is younger (he's basically been a very good relief pitcher for two seasons, one of which was injury-shortened, and an elite reliever for one). Robertson does have a track record and age on his side (although he hasn't been as good as Uehara), but he's going to get far more than this.

I can understand the idea of not wanting to pay that kind of money for any reliever, for sure, but to those who don't like this deal, I'd ask: what would your closer solution have been? Mujica?

In July I thought he was worth keeping to give a qualifying offer and retaining for a year. After his second half I thought a one year $10-12m deal would get it done.

I'm somewhat surprised he got the second year. I think this points pretty directly to the team's intention to spend to the cap. The second year lowers the AAV. If they felt the had the room under the budget, they probably would have just given him a few more bucks on a one year deal.

My alternative would be to go with Mujica and Tazawa at the back and and try some of these young pitchers in the pen.

I have my doubts that DelaRosa and Webster will ever be effective starters, but I think both can be very good relievers.

There is probably more than one way to build a bullpen, I juat doubt that acquiring a lot of veterans is the most effective way.

I would certainly prefer to build it the way KC did, but I don't believe the Red Sox will ever do that. They never would have let Holland or Herrera pitch in the majors. Will they ever give Hembree, Wilson, Garcia and others a chance?

See, I'm not comfortable at all with Mujica and Tazawa as options 1 and 2, which is why I'm ok with this signing. I'm even less comfortable with a bullpen consisting of Mujica/Tazawa and rookies.

There is certainly more than one way to build a bullpen, but with Uehara at least holding down the ninth and letting everything else work out from there, to me, it's a lot safer to put some of those younger pitchers into the bullpen and see if any of them take off. To me, if you're going to run Mujica and Tazawa as your 8th and 9th, you need to get some vets to shore up the bullpen... like a couple guys that would cost $4M.... which would cost about the same as just getting the sure(-ish) thing in Uehara for $9M.

As for the "Koji/Breslow/Badenhop" point you make, jerrygarciaparra, why are we randomly selecting three pitchers? The seven most-used relievers for Boston last year were Uehara/Badenhop/Tazawa/Mujica/Breslow/Miller/Layne, in terms of appearances. That bullpen cost $4.25M+$2.15M+$1.275M+$4.75M+$3.825M+$1,903,125+$450K = $18,603,125
Right now, for 2015, they have Uehara/Mujica/Tazawa, which costs $9M+$4.75M+arb ($2-3M? I'm always awful at this, so someone tell me if I'm wrong) = something like $15-17M? But if you spend another $2M to get a Badenhop-like veteran in the middle, and surround with kids making the league minimum... aren't you paying about the same price for your bullpen, give or take a couple million?

Just not worth it. If the Red Sox have 55 million to spend this off-season then they just spent 9 of that on a 40 year old closer who started to look like he was on the verge of retirement. I agree with whomever said "good-bye any chance of getting Miller". Unless they plan on rebuilding the bullpen with Uehara and Miller, but I doubt that's the case when they need to fill two starting rotation spots as well as 3B.

They could always find a suitor for Victorino and make my point moot.

Chris, Mujica and Tazawa have shown success in the past. I wouldn't worry too much about them playing important fixtures on this staff considering how volatile relievers can be.

I think my selection was just based on what we may actually know at this point.  It does seem arbitrary and I apologize for that.  Given your potentially accurate description of the 2015 bullpen cost...and let's go high end and call in a 20 million bullpen...almost half is tied to one pitcher.  I think that is a lot of risk for one pitcher...who could underperform or get hurt...as that would almost certainly call for additional monies.

Sometimes I read posts and everyone seems so afraid of the longer years or excess of 20 million...and I think those are arbitrary also. Those kind of may be better for the long term planning...but this type of contract can be equally debilitating to the short term and it just seems like it gets excused because it doesn't hamper long term.  A wasted 2-5 million is a serious matter for us to be contenders again in 2015...which is what I want the most.

The issue is less that Mujica/Tazawa can't be good late-innings bullpen pieces, but instead that there's not much reliability behind them. Aside from Layne (a likely LOOGY-type at best) and Workman, it's guys like Wilson and Hembree who have yet to impress even at AAA or converted starters that (a) may be better off trying to stick in the rotation (De La Rosa, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, Escobar, Wright) and (b) may not make a smooth transition to the bullpen. Adding Uehara pushes everyone down a slot and makes me much more confident in the overall picture.

^ This.

I get the reason having $9M of a $20M bullpen tied up in one guy seems risky, but the reason it isn't is that you are in theory underpaying others relative to their value. This could include Tazawa and any of the young pitchers that could comprise the bullpen. The risk would be if every pitcher were being paid commensurate with their ability, then yes that has some risk. The point of looking at what you're spending on the whole bullpen is that there is no effective difference in the short term between paying $9M for Koji and $11M for the rest versus paying, say, $6M and $14M if you're essentially going to have the same or similar talent in either case.

Now, if everyone ELSE comes out and sucks, then yes, this causes a potential issue. I don't think that's what anyone here was positing, I don't think.

No. But given the needs in rotation and third base, yes.

100% agree and it won't be, cannot be Victorino with his missing 90% of last season, or not at least him and getting any salary relief.

The more Farrell and the FO attempt to dispel the rumors of Cespedes being difficult to coach, or the fact that he's a short timer? The more IMO he's a goner. Grasping for more in value from other GM's is all that is. They need a spot for Betts and he's the only guy with really ANY trade value, other than Betts of the entire lot.

Edit:

Should add other than JBJ whom they can option out.

I would have gone 2 years and $15 mil with Koji and maybe watched him walk but they are making a statement in signing Koji at that level. They absolutely intend to contend in 2015.

Koji's a frail looking guy who has been worked hard over the years. And he's maybe feeling some of that wear and tear. He's probably not the guy we have been used to going forward.

When I run the numbers and assuming they sign either Headley or the Panda at 3rd, I don't see how this team signs 2 top starters. I've said over and over that I'd use an internal solution at 3rd and sign two top starters but assuming they do sign a good 3rd base FA, another decent move is to stock up in the pen and go with defense at 3rd ( Headley ).

Or trade Cespedes for a short term 3rd baseman....