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Post by pedey on Nov 1, 2014 14:55:50 GMT -5
The Red Sox have an abundance of young arms. However, it is very rare that all of them reach their full potential. Some flame out, others move to the bullpen. In a short sample in 2014, a few young pitchers didn't impress in their first season of play. What do you think each pitcher's will respectively stick as, a starter or a reliever? (I only included players that have started this year, and these are my guesses)
1) Rubby De La Rosa - I honestly can't decide 2) Brandon Workman - RP 3) Allen Webster - RP 4) Anthony Ranaudo - RP 5) Matt Barnes - 3 Starter 6) Edwin Escobar - RP 7) Henry Owens - 1/2 Starter 8) Stephen Wright - Swingman 9) Eduardo Rodriguez - 2/3 Starter 10) Brian Johnson - 4/5 starter
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Post by mainesox on Nov 1, 2014 17:15:55 GMT -5
1) Rubby De La Rosa - I honestly can't decide 2) Brandon Workman - RP 3) Allen Webster - RP 4) Anthony Ranaudo - RP 5) Matt Barnes - 3 Starter 6) Edwin Escobar - RP 7) Henry Owens - 1/2 Starter 8) Stephen Wright - Swingman 9) Eduardo Rodriguez - 2/3 Starter 10) Brian Johnson - 4/5 starter When you get into the #s of the starters it gets a lot more complicated, but as far as who ends up starting and who ends up relieving, I think I generally agree with you. I'd also say that I have faith in Rubby sticking as a starter.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 1, 2014 21:49:23 GMT -5
The Red Sox have an abundance of young arms. However, it is very rare that all of them reach their full potential. Some flame out, others move to the bullpen. In a short sample in 2014, a few young pitchers didn't impress in their first season of play. What do you think each pitcher's will respectively stick as, a starter or a reliever? (I only included players that have started this year, and these are my guesses) 1) Rubby De La Rosa - I honestly can't decide 2) Brandon Workman - RP 3) Allen Webster - RP 4) Anthony Ranaudo - RP 5) Matt Barnes - 3 Starter 6) Edwin Escobar - RP 7) Henry Owens - 1/2 Starter 8) Stephen Wright - Swingman 9) Eduardo Rodriguez - 2/3 Starter 10) Brian Johnson - 4/5 starter 1) De La Rosa - he'll wind up in the pen. Wouldn't be shocked if he wound up closing for the Sox at some point sooner than later. 2) Brandon Workman - he'll definitely wind up in the bullpen, should be valuable. 3) Allen Webster - he'll wind up in the rotation - for somebody else. 4) Anthony Ranaudo - same destiny as Allen Webster 5) Matt Barnes - I do think he'll make it as a mid rotation/#4 type starter. 6) Edwin Escobar - I totally expect he'll wind up in the pen as a key lefty. 7) Henry Owens - He'll wind up a #2/#3 starter 8) Stephen Wright - He'll wind up as a starter, although he might wind up in somebody else's rotation eventually. 9) Eduardo Rodriguez - He'll wind up a #2/#3 starter just like Owens. 10) Brian Johnson - He'll wind up a #4 type starter, but one that can throw innings.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 1, 2014 22:19:57 GMT -5
I rather build the pen from our great arms that don't make the rotation, than cut checks to the next Breslow or Bandenhop. I am allset those guys run hot and cold. Then the team like the Sox have to give them multiple years so they automaticly have a spot in the bullpen even if they suck because the theory is the young kid has an option and its never a bad thing to have extra arms. Blah ,Blah, Blah. Instead of the kid beats out the old veteran in camp and c-ya later. So I rather save on bullpen and that extra cash get me a top of rotation starter like Lester!
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Post by soxfan1615 on Nov 1, 2014 23:12:10 GMT -5
I think all of them are pen guys or out of the league soon except Rubby, Rodriguez, Owens and Johnson, and I'd only expwct one of those 4 to be better than a 4 starter (probably Rodriguez, not sure though)
Edit: forgot about wright, no idea what to do.with him, I'm guessing back of the rotation
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 1, 2014 23:17:09 GMT -5
1) Rubby De La Rosa - Starter 2) Brandon Workman - Starter for a 2nd division team 3) Allen Webster - RP 4) Anthony Ranaudo - RP 5) Matt Barnes - RP 6) Edwin Escobar - TBD 7) Henry Owens - Starter 8) Stephen Wright - Frontline Starter 9) Eduardo Rodriguez - TBD 10) Brian Johnson - TBD
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Post by mainesox on Nov 1, 2014 23:17:15 GMT -5
I think all of them are pen guys or out of the league soon except Rubby, Rodriguez, Owens and Johnson, and I'd only expwct one of those 4 to be better than a 4 starter (probably Rodriguez, not sure though) Edit: forgot about wright, no idea what to do.with him, I'm guessing back of the rotation Aren't we just a ray of sunshine?
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Post by soxfan1615 on Nov 1, 2014 23:18:19 GMT -5
I think all of them are pen guys or out of the league soon except Rubby, Rodriguez, Owens and Johnson, and I'd only expwct one of those 4 to be better than a 4 starter (probably Rodriguez, not sure though) Edit: forgot about wright, no idea what to do.with him, I'm guessing back of the rotation Aren't we just a ray of sunshine? Just being a realist
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 2, 2014 0:04:13 GMT -5
1) Rubby De La Rosa - Starter 2) Brandon Workman - Reliever 3) Allen Webster - RP 4) Anthony Ranaudo - SP 5) Matt Barnes - SP 6) Edwin Escobar - RP 7) Henry Owens - SP 8) Stephen Wright - RP 9) Eduardo Rodriguez - SP 10) Brian Johnson - SP
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Post by larrycook on Nov 2, 2014 1:23:39 GMT -5
The Red Sox have an abundance of young arms. However, it is very rare that all of them reach their full potential. Some flame out, others move to the bullpen. In a short sample in 2014, a few young pitchers didn't impress in their first season of play. What do you think each pitcher's will respectively stick as, a starter or a reliever? (I only included players that have started this year, and these are my guesses) 1) Rubby De La Rosa - I honestly can't decide 2) Brandon Workman - RP 3) Allen Webster - RP 4) Anthony Ranaudo - RP 5) Matt Barnes - 3 Starter 6) Edwin Escobar - RP 7) Henry Owens - 1/2 Starter 8) Stephen Wright - Swingman 9) Eduardo Rodriguez - 2/3 Starter 10) Brian Johnson - 4/5 starter I like this, except I would put Johnson at #3 starter. I like Johnson, maybe more than most others. But I feel good about his ability to get mlb hitters out even without an out pitch.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 2, 2014 9:19:37 GMT -5
Here's the thing with Rubby that really gives me pause - he gets alarmingly few swings and misses with a 97 MPH FB. Does that pitch become more effective in a relief role or do guys just sit on it and ignore the change? I say reliever probably but hate to waste a legit 3 pitch mix in the pen.
I still think Owens is a 3 at very, very best and will more likely end up a back end starter or reliever.
I also think Wright is a starter.
Rest of this is spot-on, imho.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 2, 2014 9:45:46 GMT -5
The answer to some of these questions depends on whether the guy ends up on a team deep with pitching talent, or not.
All these projections are barring injury, of course. Edit: and my "upsides" are 90% or 95% projections, not the more typical 80%-ish.
1) Rubby De La Rosa - Can be a #3 starter if he adds stamina, or an elite set-up man, maybe a closer. He'll be more valuable as the former, but we are likely to keep him as the latter, because we can. 2) Brandon Workman - Can be a #4 or 5 starter, or a good 7th inning guy, and likelier to remain in the latter role for us, because I don't see other teams targeting him in trade as a starter; everybody has guys with his rotation upside . 3) Allen Webster - Similar to RDLR, but with more starter upside (i.e., a shot at #2), and less upside as a reliever. If he doesn't end up in our rotation, likely to be a trade chip and start for someone else. If he regresses from his strong 2014 finish, he could end up as an 8th inning guy. 4) Anthony Ranaudo - A #4 / 5 starter. I don't see how his stuff plays up in the pen and see him being dealt this winter, to a team with a bigger park. 5) Matt Barnes - Just like Webster, but a bit better (see below). I could see him in our rotation, in our pen (as a luxury, like RDLR), or starting elsewhere. 6) Edwin Escobar - Has a chance to bounce back to his 2013 self and reputation, but more likely a lefty-killer reliever. I think the inevitable injuries are likely to give him the bulk of one more year in the AAA rotation. 7) Henry Owens - Anywhere from a #1 to a #4. Probably a #3 who grows into a #2. 8) Stephen Wright - Anywhere from a #2 (unlikely) to a #5, with a #3 or #4 likeliest. And probably sooner than later. 9) Eduardo Rodriguez - See Owens, with a greater chance of being a #1 or #2, and a greater chance at being a #4. 10) Brian Johnson - Anywhere from a #3 to a #5 is likely. Best case is Mark Buehrle.
To rank the undefined:
As starters:
Barnes -- best mean projection, i.e., likeliest #3 with a shot at #2 Webster -- best total upside (better chance at #2), but less likelier than Barnes to realize it De La Rosa -- likely #3, but limited to that (sizable gap here) Ranaudo Workman
As relievers:
De La Rosa Barnes Webster Workman Ranaudo
The key thing with RDLR is that a) he lacks a plus breaking ball and seems unlikely to develop it in the future, and b) because aforementioned OK breaking ball is a slider rather than a curve, adding a cutter would be a lot less useful, so he seems unlikely to ever have 4 pitches, and that limits him to being a #3 starter.
Barnes has already flashed both a plus change and curve, which means he has upside, especially if he adds a cutter (about the easiest pitch to learn; the organizational policy seems to be to have guys work on their other pitches and then add a cutter when they're more finished, in order to get them to the next level.)
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 2, 2014 10:51:02 GMT -5
Bumgarner manages to be one of great pitchers in baseball without throwing a 95 MPH fastball. His command and control are phenomenal. The problem with many of these Sox prospect pitchers is that they do not yet have superior command and control, especially command. That certainly has been a significant problem for Webster, RDLR and Ranaudo. Even Workman did not seem as sharp this season as he did in 2013.
I have read that Johnson's command and control are advanced and that Owens has been improving in that area. If that is the case, then they are likely to move up the list as potential starters.
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 2, 2014 11:08:25 GMT -5
Bumgarner manages to be one of great pitchers in baseball without throwing a 95 MPH fastball. His command and control are phenomenal. The problem with many of these Sox prospect pitchers is that they do not yet have superior command and control, especially command. That certainly has been a significant problem for Webster, RDLR and Ranaudo. Even Workman did not seem as sharp this season as he did in 2013. I have read that Johnson's command and control are advanced and that Owens has been improving in that area. If that is the case, then they are likely to move up the list as potential starters. Bumgarner is not a good example in that case because while indeed his command and control are amazing, he gets those results mainly because of the deception in his deliveries. There's basically nothing to differentiate his fastball from his "slutter" until it gets in the zone so it's very hard to get the good part of the bat on the ball, as evidenced by being on the high side of IFFB% and on the low side of HR/FB throughout his career while not having an overpowering FB and not being a ground ball pitcher.
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Post by moonstone2 on Nov 2, 2014 11:08:37 GMT -5
The Red Sox have an abundance of young arms. However, it is very rare that all of them reach their full potential. Some flame out, others move to the bullpen. In a short sample in 2014, a few young pitchers didn't impress in their first season of play. What do you think each pitcher's will respectively stick as, a starter or a reliever? (I only included players that have started this year, and these are my guesses) 1) Rubby De La Rosa - I honestly can't decide 2) Brandon Workman - RP 3) Allen Webster - RP 4) Anthony Ranaudo - RP 5) Matt Barnes - 3 Starter 6) Edwin Escobar - RP 7) Henry Owens - 1/2 Starter 8) Stephen Wright - Swingman 9) Eduardo Rodriguez - 2/3 Starter 10) Brian Johnson - 4/5 starter Reliever Reliever Reliever Up and Down guy Starter Reliever Starter Starter Starter Starter
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Post by rafael on Nov 2, 2014 12:09:14 GMT -5
I'm not really high on Webster, but I see him as the kind of guy that is traded this offseason and then flourishes into a solid #3 starter.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 2, 2014 12:44:34 GMT -5
I'm not really high on Webster, but I see him as the kind of guy that is traded this offseason and then flourishes into a solid #3 starter. #3 starters grow on trees I guess? You are high on him, you just don't realize it.
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Post by rafael on Nov 2, 2014 13:38:25 GMT -5
I'm not really high on Webster, but I see him as the kind of guy that is traded this offseason and then flourishes into a solid #3 starter. #3 starters grow on trees I guess? You are high on him, you just don't realize it. I wasn't being clear, I don't expect him to turn into a solid #3 in Boston, as I don't see him getting his stuff together here, I just think he's got a chance somewhere else
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 2, 2014 20:33:23 GMT -5
Bumgarner manages to be one of great pitchers in baseball without throwing a 95 MPH fastball. His command and control are phenomenal. The problem with many of these Sox prospect pitchers is that they do not yet have superior command and control, especially command. That certainly has been a significant problem for Webster, RDLR and Ranaudo. Even Workman did not seem as sharp this season as he did in 2013. I have read that Johnson's command and control are advanced and that Owens has been improving in that area. If that is the case, then they are likely to move up the list as potential starters. Bumgarner is not a good example in that case because while indeed his command and control are amazing, he gets those results mainly because of the deception in his deliveries. There's basically nothing to differentiate his fastball from his "slutter" until it gets in the zone so it's very hard to get the good part of the bat on the ball, as evidenced by being on the high side of IFFB% and on the low side of HR/FB throughout his career while not having an overpowering FB and not being a ground ball pitcher. Owens also is noted for his deception.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 3, 2014 0:30:52 GMT -5
I'm not really high on Webster, but I see him as the kind of guy that is traded this offseason and then flourishes into a solid #3 starter. Webster's stuff is probably the best in our system, but the lack of command is frustratingly mind boggling. I can not see him in he bullpen, so I think he battles de la rosa for the #5 spot in the rotation.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 3, 2014 8:31:11 GMT -5
I'm not really high on Webster, but I see him as the kind of guy that is traded this offseason and then flourishes into a solid #3 starter. Webster's stuff is probably the best in our system, but the lack of command is frustratingly mind boggling. I think there's an argument that he made real improvement over the season. I know that command and control are different, but they correlate strongly, and we can measure the latter, so let's look at that. His best stretch of 3 or 4 starts, in terms of BB%, were his last 3 and 4. If you plot his start-by-start walk rate versus date, you see a declining trend except for two huge outliers, his two worst starts of the year. Which were those? His first two after his promotion. If we adjusted the walk rate for AAA versus MLB, the decline would be even more pronounced. Removing the outliers, we see a trend that has a 12.5% chance of being random (which I think would actually approach statistical significance if level-adjusted). Well, we know the guy was trying as hard as humanly possible to improve his control, so if we're looking at this from a Bayesian point of view, we're much more confident than we would be otherwise that this was something real. And so then you have to choose between two scenarios: was he trying very hard to improve his control, and failing, and his two outlier starts, which could have happened at any time, just happened to be the first two after his promotion? Or did he actually improve his control as he was attempting to do, with the outliers being the result of not challenging MLB hitters in his first two starts? I think the latter is much more likely. (BTW, If you look at just the 12 MLB starts and include the first two, the improving trend has a 10.6% chance of being random.) The trendline through these starts begins at 10.2%, which would be among the worst in MLB (qualifying starters), and ends at 6.4%, which is a bit above average, a bit better, for instance, than Kazmir, Cueto, Cobb, Scherzer, Hamels ... I think there's reason to be guardedly optimistic that he made real strides in this department. Ideally, he'll have a chance to solidify that improvement at Pawtucket.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2014 10:52:05 GMT -5
I actually don't see the point of Triple-A for Webster from a development standpoint (different if he gets beat out for a spot and is in Pawtucket as depth). Sometimes you need to let guys work it out in the majors. I want him to figure out how to pitch in the stage he needs to learn how to pitch on. It's happened a few times now that he makes an adjustment, comes up... and it's gone. Make the adjustment in the Bigs and show you can repeat it, y'know?
And Eric, I'd say how hard a pitcher gets hit could be a good proxy for command as well, at least in combination with walks. Lack of control means you throw balls, ergo, walks. Lack of command means you throw bad strikes, ergo, balls get hit very far by good hitters.
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Post by pedey on Nov 3, 2014 20:30:21 GMT -5
I rather build the pen from our great arms that don't make the rotation, than cut checks to the next Breslow or Bandenhop. I am allset those guys run hot and cold. Then the team like the Sox have to give them multiple years so they automaticly have a spot in the bullpen even if they suck because the theory is the young kid has an option and its never a bad thing to have extra arms. Blah ,Blah, Blah. Instead of the kid beats out the old veteran in camp and c-ya later. So I rather save on bullpen and that extra cash get me a top of rotation starter like Lester! I completely agree. In most cases, the best relief pitchers are failed starters. Guys who cant go deep into games, lack a third pitch, can't get a lineup out a second time through, who are flamethrowers, etc. Think of Tazawa and Andrew Miller. I would be comfortable going into spring training with 1-2 rotation spots and 2+ bullpen spots open. Let the young guys win their own job. Hopefully they will figure out some of their struggles in spring training or at the MLB level. Maybe having a Capuano-type veteran as a back-up wouldn't be a terrible idea.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 3, 2014 20:45:55 GMT -5
I actually don't see the point of Triple-A for Webster from a development standpoint (different if he gets beat out for a spot and is in Pawtucket as depth). Sometimes you need to let guys work it out in the majors. I want him to figure out how to pitch in the stage he needs to learn how to pitch on. It's happened a few times now that he makes an adjustment, comes up... and it's gone. Make the adjustment in the Bigs and show you can repeat it, y'know? And Eric, I'd say how hard a pitcher gets hit could be a good proxy for command as well, at least in combination with walks. Lack of control means you throw balls, ergo, walks. Lack of command means you throw bad strikes, ergo, balls get hit very far by good hitters. So I am guessing this is probably the most important spring training camp of his career.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2014 8:45:30 GMT -5
I actually don't see the point of Triple-A for Webster from a development standpoint (different if he gets beat out for a spot and is in Pawtucket as depth). Sometimes you need to let guys work it out in the majors. I want him to figure out how to pitch in the stage he needs to learn how to pitch on. It's happened a few times now that he makes an adjustment, comes up... and it's gone. Make the adjustment in the Bigs and show you can repeat it, y'know? And Eric, I'd say how hard a pitcher gets hit could be a good proxy for command as well, at least in combination with walks. Lack of control means you throw balls, ergo, walks. Lack of command means you throw bad strikes, ergo, balls get hit very far by good hitters. So I am guessing this is probably the most important spring training camp of his career. It's a Bill James maxim, adopted by most sabermetricians, that ST performance is almost entirely meaningless (big boosts in SA do have some predictive value). Theo bought it 100%. Differences that scouts can see are a different story, but mere results by themselves don't mean anything. If Webster happens to be consistent throwing strikes all through ST, it has far less meaning (if any) than being consistent for two or three months at the start of the season.
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