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2014-15 Offseason Non-Sox thread
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 18, 2014 8:15:19 GMT -5
Lot of complementary pieces listed.....for a team that lacks difference makers. Heyward had a chance to be a difference maker for this team, that's all. With Heyward off the board, here's hoping Betts - Bradley - Castillo can support a rotation that upgrades significantly (re: two major pieces) this offseason. My own opinion is that Betts will complement no one, he'll be the main dish. He outhit Heyward in his 200+ PAs last year and outslugged him by 100 points. Where the latter really stands out is on defense. Betts is nowhere near the right fielder that Heyward is. And I'm going to wait to see who Castillo is, I think the jury is still out on him. But overall, there seems to be plenty of talent to choose from in center and right. I agree, the team should focus on pitching (and that hole at third base). It was just too good a fit for Atlanta and the Cards, especially after the death of Tavarez. St. Louis could give Atlanta what they really needed, a proven starter. That's what they did. This. There was a much better need and fit than with the Sox. I also think the lack of interest on the Sox part shows their commitment to Betts in RF (and to some extent Castillo in CF).
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2014 8:33:34 GMT -5
We don't really know that there was a lack of interest from the Red Sox though. We only know that the Cardinals are the team that put together the package that the Braves liked the most.
This deal also serves as a reminder to all of those trade proposals where people try to improve the offer with more players, rather than better ones. Two, or four, or six less players aren't going to match up to a Shelby Miller-type who has some history of major league success and arguably a higher upside than any pitcher in the Red Sox system.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 18, 2014 8:40:25 GMT -5
A few reports are the Yankees are now in on Scherzer which means where there's smoke there's fire. Wouldn't be surprised if they now jump in on Lester too.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2014 10:58:17 GMT -5
Even if Atlanta thinks that Kelly and Miller have the same value, I'm not sure why the Red Sox would push for that trade. We then would be looking to add 3 SPs in the offseason, probably overpaying and get an OF, which isn't our need. If we would trade a young SP like Webster or Ranaudo along with Nava, it would make more sense to me. I like Heyward a lot and I can see why people want him on the Red Sox, but it's a huge stretch to think the Red Sox missed an opportunity here. The Red Sox don't need outfielders and they desperately need pitching. The Braves where trading an outfielder and looking for pitching. So... yeah. It was probably never going to happen and that's fine. Not everything has to be about the Red Sox. They desperately needed a lefthanded bat who could hit 5th or 6th, and Heyward was the best option for that, as well as a perfect defensive fit for the park. The "we already had a glut of outfielders" argument really doesn't work. Cespedes is, or ought to be, a goner, and trading for Heyward would have made Nava expendable, and he has some value. This trade increases the odds of signing Sandoval (or Headley) to a contract that will look bad in a few years.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 18, 2014 11:09:20 GMT -5
I like Heyward a lot and I can see why people want him on the Red Sox, but it's a huge stretch to think the Red Sox missed an opportunity here. The Red Sox don't need outfielders and they desperately need pitching. The Braves where trading an outfielder and looking for pitching. So... yeah. It was probably never going to happen and that's fine. Not everything has to be about the Red Sox. We desperately needed a lefthanded bat who could hit 5th or 6th, and Heyward was the best option for that, as well as a perfect defensive fit for the park. This trade increases the odds of signing Sandoval (or Headley) to a contract that will look bad in a few years. Not sure I see Headley getting a contract that turns out to be too bad in its final season or two. At the moment, he appears to be one of the most cost-effective big signings you could make on the FA market. Say we offer $60 million over four years, which is probably more than most people on here would want to go, at least years-wise. I know he's over 30 now, but he doesn't strike me as a guy who will experience significant physical declines any time soon. I'd expect him to be above average at third ever year of that deal, and his offense can probably cling to a 100 wRC+. Even if he only posts a 2.5 WAR average per year over the life of that contract (and I think there's definitely a strong chance for 3-4 WAR seasons in the first two years, and probably not much worse than a 2 WAR in the final two), 60/4 sure sounds like a bargain. Now, the thought of paying Sandoval $20 million in 2019 on the other hand, where he could be a 1 WAR 1B/DH, sounds quite scary.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 18, 2014 11:17:54 GMT -5
It all depends on who is bidding on Headley and how much it is driven up. I'm sure he'll wait for Sandoval to sign first. Please sign with the Giants.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 18, 2014 11:26:24 GMT -5
Dioner Navarro becomes an obvious trade target for the Red Sox since the Russel Martin signing.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 18, 2014 14:00:10 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2014 14:16:15 GMT -5
Duke was a beast after changing his deliver this year. The White Sox obviously have more pressing needs than a lefty short reliever, but at $5 million per that's still a solid move.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 18, 2014 14:57:52 GMT -5
We don't really know that there was a lack of interest from the Red Sox though. We only know that the Cardinals are the team that put together the package that the Braves liked the most. This deal also serves as a reminder to all of those trade proposals where people try to improve the offer with more players, rather than better ones. Two, or four, or six less players aren't going to match up to a Shelby Miller-type who has some history of major league success and arguably a higher upside than any pitcher in the Red Sox system. It has been reported that they never contacted the Braves on Heyward.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 18, 2014 15:13:40 GMT -5
Found this interesting. Stanton's contract is back loaded, but look how it affects his opt out. espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11897600/giancarlo-stanton-325m-miami-marlins-heavily-backloadedSo essentially, Loria can do nothing to better the team, and have one of the best young players in baseball for the same contract that Pablo Sandoval could get this year, then let him opt out when the 7 Year 218M part of his contract kicks in at age 30. I'm assuming in this scenario, Loria would wander around Marlins park with both his middle fingers held high like he is Steve Austin.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 18, 2014 15:47:12 GMT -5
No one is really surprised about this, are they? Loria's MO hasn't significantly changed. The contract does get more expensive with the $77 million through his age 28-30 seasons, but even that may look like a bargain by then. There is injury risk for the Marlins, of course, but all things equal, this looks like a very favorable contract for the team. Reminds be a bit of a football contract where the "announced" contract is a paper value only. The player never gets all that money. Realistically this is $107 million over six years, with Stanton probably gone after that.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2014 16:20:31 GMT -5
Found this interesting. Stanton's contract is back loaded, but look how it affects his opt out. espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11897600/giancarlo-stanton-325m-miami-marlins-heavily-backloadedSo essentially, Loria can do nothing to better the team, and have one of the best young players in baseball for the same contract that Pablo Sandoval could get this year, then let him opt out when the 7 Year 218M part of his contract kicks in at age 30. I'm assuming in this scenario, Loria would wander around Marlins park with both his middle fingers held high like he is Steve Austin. This is what I feared when I saw the structure of the deal. I'm honestly a little surprised that Stanton and his reps signed a contract like this with so little (relatively speaking) fully-guaranteed money. I would have easily paid him $150m for those six years and not had to think about it too much.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 18, 2014 16:26:55 GMT -5
Exactly. In that scenario, he's taking a $7 million/year haircut, courtesy of Jeffrey "The Barber" Loria.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 18, 2014 16:37:58 GMT -5
Yea, I am surprised he took that deal prior to the opt out. Couldn't he of structured it to give him a higher salary early on, but deferred the salary to a later year (Pedroia did that right?)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 18, 2014 16:39:10 GMT -5
My understanding is that the full contract is 'guaranteed' unless he opts out. So that part being under his control seems solid. Great move getting him to take less than market value though. The only way this backfires on the Marlins is if injuries hit him - and I'm guessing this is well insured?
One of the best parts of the Stanton deal is the AAV. If in 3 years the Marlins aren't in contention, then Stanton would likely want to be traded and they could send him to a team like the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/etc. who would only have less than 18 mil/yr counting against the luxury tax. Brilliant move of back-loading a contract by a small market team - I expect this to happen more and more.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 18, 2014 16:41:25 GMT -5
No one is really surprised about this, are they? Loria's MO hasn't significantly changed. The contract does get more expensive with the $77 million through his age 28-30 seasons, but even that may look like a bargain by then. There is injury risk for the Marlins, of course, but all things equal, this looks like a very favorable contract for the team. Reminds be a bit of a football contract where the "announced" contract is a paper value only. The player never gets all that money. Realistically this is $107 million over six years, with Stanton probably gone after that.But it's not paper value to Stanton. It's basically the FLOOR for his career earnings while he still retains the option/potential to make even more. Stanton's a great player and I'd hate to see him go into an early decline, but if that did happen (and it certainly could given the injury history), there's few owners I'd rather like to see get left holding the $300m dollar bag...
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 18, 2014 16:42:39 GMT -5
But there is a chance (good chance) in 6 years from now he wants no part of playing for Miami. Also his AAV would come out to be 25M a year, would be calculated 325/13
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 18, 2014 17:00:21 GMT -5
I'm confused. I thought Stanton had an opt-out, you guys are writing as if the Marlins had an opt-out.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 18, 2014 17:00:23 GMT -5
I can't see him getting a lot more than 7/$218 million when he is 31. The way the contract is structured, I don't think there is much chance that he opts out. That's probably the year he gets traded where rich teams could afford to pay him $31 million/yr while only counting $25 million against the luxury tax.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2014 17:39:00 GMT -5
We don't really know that there was a lack of interest from the Red Sox though. We only know that the Cardinals are the team that put together the package that the Braves liked the most. This deal also serves as a reminder to all of those trade proposals where people try to improve the offer with more players, rather than better ones. Two, or four, or six less players aren't going to match up to a Shelby Miller-type who has some history of major league success and arguably a higher upside than any pitcher in the Red Sox system. It has been reported that they never contacted the Braves on Heyward. Ah, fair enough. I hadn't seen that. I'm superficially disappointed because I like Heyward as a player, but if the Braves made it clear what they were looking for and the Sox couldn't match it, or they didn't think he was worth what it would take to extend him, then it's understandable.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 18, 2014 18:06:07 GMT -5
Per Jim Bowden on Twitter:
#Cardinals have joined the Red Sox, Cubs and Braves in pursuit of Jon Lester according to a club source which makes sense after Miller trade
Perhaps all in indeed for theCards.
edit: I see this has been mentioned in another thread. Sorry for duplication.
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 18, 2014 18:41:56 GMT -5
Based off the numbers that just came out in regards to Stanton, I doubt he's in Miami 4 years from now. Miami essentially pays pocket change for the next three years, then his cash salary balloons near 30M/year the rest of the way.
This all means that we probably get to go through this again in a potential trade with the Marlins or signing him after his opt out if he is fed up with Miami
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 18, 2014 18:59:12 GMT -5
I can't see him getting a lot more than 7/$218 million when he is 31. The way the contract is structured, I don't think there is much chance that he opts out. That's probably the year he gets traded where rich teams could afford to pay him $31 million/yr while only counting $25 million against the luxury tax. I mean, I get it, everyone loves to jump to conclusions. But honestly I think the backloading is such that it will actually be an interesting decision for Stanton whether to opt-out or not. We'll have to wait and see how a 7/$218m contract actually fits into the market in 2020. It's not like assuming constant rates of inflation has ever blown up in anyone's face before .... Oh and half the commentators here are completely ignoring the full no-trade clause too. The only thing that seems certain is that the Marlins are shouldering a lot of risk here.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2014 21:25:18 GMT -5
Yes, Stanton can opt-in and get that full contract, but given the leverage he had as a 25-year-old stud who could have forced his way to a big-market team, he could have done more. The idea with most opt-outs (i.e., ones structured with a relatively consistent AAV) is that it gives players a high financial floor (the full value of the contract) but an even higher financial ceiling (they can opt-out and get that second long-term contract a la Sabathia). That higher ceiling is the whole reason opt-outs are so player-friendly.
However, with Stanton's deal as backloaded as it is, that higher ceiling doesn't really exist. Even if he keeps playing essentially as well as he has and there are six more years of inflation, 7/$218m seems tough to match/beat as a player entering his decline years. Therefore, the opt-out didn't really increase his financial ceiling much, because it's hard to see him getting much more than the total 13/$325m no matter how well he plays. Yes, he still has a high financial floor (the aforementioned 13/$325m), which is certainly the driving motivation of his signing such a deal, but he could and should have gotten more upside. Basically, it's the opposite of what Boras advises, and Boras is a damn good agent for a reason.
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