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Post by dmaineah on Nov 20, 2014 13:53:39 GMT -5
Considering this was a problem for most of last year are the Red Sox better prepared this year? I said when they lost Ellsbury that it would have a bigger impact on the team than any other decision they would make going forward at the time. Are one of the rookies, Betts & Castillo, the answer or is that just a hope and a prayer? What about Victorino? Can Holt reclaim the job full time or was that just a good stretch? Should the Red Sox be looking to acquire a proven Leadoff Batter? Or should they hope for the best from in house options such as Betts, Castillo or Jackie Bradley Jr? I haven't seen this discussed much, if at all. I Started thinking about this after I filled out my post in the "Choose your own adventure: you're the GM" thread. So my question to everyone is; Should the Red Sox be addressing the need at the top of the order as much as 3B or SP? I do.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 20, 2014 13:58:08 GMT -5
I think ideally it would be Betts, but it's a lot to ask from a 21 year old. Depends a lot on the health and performance of players. Victorino fits the build, Castillo doesn't really (low OBP projection). I'd also consider Pedroia as a leadoff hitting type if his power doesn't come back. I thought for the longest time it would be JBJ, but he hasn't proven he can hit MLB pitching yet.
Really I wouldn't concern myself with trading for a "lead off" type instead of building a complete team. Right now the concerns really should be 3B and SP.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2014 14:04:57 GMT -5
Mookie Betts
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Post by Guidas on Nov 20, 2014 14:07:15 GMT -5
Mookie (until and only if 200 ABs shows it's a bad fit).
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Post by down225 on Nov 20, 2014 14:29:39 GMT -5
It was more of a concern last offseason and aside from the Nava experiment, which lasted less than a month, I thought it worked out okay. Betts is the logical choice, but I'm more concerned where they'll play him so he's in the line-up. Plus we have Holt, Pedey, and Victorino, and even Castillo. Doubt they're too concerned, for now.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 20, 2014 15:52:38 GMT -5
I think ideally it would be Betts, but it's a lot to ask from a 21 year old. Depends a lot on the health and performance of players. Victorino fits the build, Castillo doesn't really (low OBP projection). I'd also consider Pedroia as a leadoff hitting type if his power doesn't come back. I thought for the longest time it would be JBJ, but he hasn't proven he can hit MLB pitching yet. Really I wouldn't concern myself with trading for a "lead off" type instead of building a complete team. Right now the concerns really should be 3B and SP.
Wouldn't that include a proven leadoff hitter?
Posted by down225 . It was more of a concern last offseason and aside from the Nava experiment, which lasted less than a month, I thought it worked out okay. Betts is the logical choice, but I'm more concerned where they'll play him so he's in the line-up. Plus we have Holt, Pedey, and Victorino, and even Castillo. Doubt they're too concerned, for now
Couldn't that be a mistake again
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 20, 2014 15:57:27 GMT -5
I think ideally it would be Betts, but it's a lot to ask from a 21 year old. Depends a lot on the health and performance of players. Victorino fits the build, Castillo doesn't really (low OBP projection). I'd also consider Pedroia as a leadoff hitting type if his power doesn't come back. I thought for the longest time it would be JBJ, but he hasn't proven he can hit MLB pitching yet. Really I wouldn't concern myself with trading for a "lead off" type instead of building a complete team. Right now the concerns really should be 3B and SP.
Wouldn't that include a proven leadoff hitter?
Posted by down225 . It was more of a concern last offseason and aside from the Nava experiment, which lasted less than a month, I thought it worked out okay. Betts is the logical choice, but I'm more concerned where they'll play him so he's in the line-up. Plus we have Holt, Pedey, and Victorino, and even Castillo. Doubt they're too concerned, for now
Couldn't that be a mistake again
What position is the proven leadoff hitter going to play? We have a spot at 3B and backup catcher. Betts should be a great leadoff hitter. |
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 20, 2014 16:12:08 GMT -5
This issue will be decided in ST after the roster is set and players are evaluated for OBP, base running acumen, experience, etc. Let's bring it up again in March.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 20, 2014 16:12:09 GMT -5
[/quote] What position is the proven leadoff hitter going to play? We have a spot at 3B and backup catcher. Betts should be a great leadoff hitter. [/quote][/p]
That's my point. All the spots are taken without a leadoff hitter.
What if Betts struggles? Its a small sample size so far.
Just seems like it could become problem again and I don't think I'm to thrilled with the options
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 20, 2014 16:13:58 GMT -5
This issue will be decided in ST after the roster is set and players are evaluated for OBP, base running acumen, experience, etc. Let's bring it up again in March. Do you think the team shouldn't address this until March? |
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Post by ethanbein on Nov 20, 2014 16:28:48 GMT -5
He has over 1200 PAs of elite play at the professional level, the sample size really isn't that small. At this point it would be crazy to give the opening day leadoff spot to anyone else.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 20, 2014 16:35:07 GMT -5
He has over 1200 PAs of elite play at the professional level, the sample size really isn't that small. At this point it would be crazy to give the opening day leadoff spot to anyone else.
Isn't that what they were saying about JBJ last year?
Does Betts even make the team if the OF is still Céspedes Castillo Victorino Nava Craig Holt? And they sign a 3B.
Isn't it very possible that he starts in AAA just because he has options and roster crunch/depth? |
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 20, 2014 16:45:38 GMT -5
No, I don't think labels like "lead off hitter" "middle of the order bat" or "Ace" really lend themselves to building a complete team. I remember someone posted something on these forums suggesting that optimizing your batting order could only lead to something like half a win over a whole year.
Put it this way, would you rather have an "ideal" top of the line of say, Altuve, Trout, Cabrera, and Abreu, if it meant the other 5 players in your lineup were average AAA guys?
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2014 16:52:59 GMT -5
Obviously Betts should be the leadoff hitter, and I wouldn't think there would be much chance that he's JBJ. If he got hurt then Pedroia would be the next obvious candidate.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,644
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2014 16:54:12 GMT -5
He has over 1200 PAs of elite play at the professional level, the sample size really isn't that small. At this point it would be crazy to give the opening day leadoff spot to anyone else.
Isn't that what they were saying about JBJ last year?
Does Betts even make the team if the OF is still Céspedes Castillo Victorino Nava Craig Holt? And they sign a 3B.
Isn't it very possible that he starts in AAA just because he has options and roster crunch/depth? Um. No. Betts was one of the best hitters in the lineup and it wasn't that close. Most of those guys are more likely to be dealt than Betts demoted. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 20, 2014 18:16:23 GMT -5
D-Maine, Ellsbury was worth 3.3 WAR last year in 149 games. Betts came in at 2.1 in 49 games. It may be a small sample size, but it was a very tasty one, no? Bogaerts just about rubber stamped his month at the end of the regular 2013 season over the course of his 600+ PAs last year. If Betts does the same, he'll steal 20+ bases and pound out nearly 60 extra base hits to go with very good OBP. He may just deserve first shot at this. Commentators, analysts, Sox FO people, players, club house attendants, and the guy who drives the bus to and from the airport all had the same mantra: the team may have found its leadoff hitter.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 20, 2014 19:08:41 GMT -5
Leadoff hitters really don't matter that much. Pretty much anyone who's not an OBP sinkhole and is faster than your average Molina brother will do. In 2014, the Angels lead baseball in runs per game. Their leadoff hitter was (mostly) Kole Calhoun, who hit .272/.325/.450 and went 5-for-8 on stolen base attempts.
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2014 19:43:44 GMT -5
You don't need a leadoff hitter to be successful, just like you don't need multiple middle-of-the-order hitters or an ace to be successful.
But to take the question seriously, here's my list in order of preference: Betts, Pedroia, Victorino (if healthy), Holt, Castillo, Nava/RHH. So that's six decent options right there.
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 20, 2014 19:46:54 GMT -5
This is a stupid question, because we don't know yet who will be on the roster. Once we do the answer can be very easily derived by taking the 3 projected best hitters and slotting the one with the highest projected OBP into the leadoff spot, the others batting 2nd and 4th. It is that simple.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2014 20:11:26 GMT -5
This conversation is eerily similar to the "proven run producer" Mike Napoli argument before 2013.
Mookie Betts and Dustin Pedroia are good hitters, and therefore good leadoff hitters. I'd probably bat Pedroia leadoff, but I don't actually care about lineup order as long as it's close.
Red Sox leadoff hitters weren't all that bad in 2014, either. The Red Sox actually got a higher OBP (.330) out of the lineup position than Ellsbury had (.328). It was the black hole of outs that was in the 6 through 9 spots that killed them.
EDIT: I can't believe I missed the obvious irony here - Jacoby Ellsbury, obviously, had no major league experience when he took over as the team's leadoff hitter.
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 20, 2014 20:17:40 GMT -5
Since the question is "who will bat leadoff" and not "who should bat leadoff", the only rational answer is Castillo until he proves he can't handle it.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2014 20:27:15 GMT -5
Why?
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2014 20:50:45 GMT -5
You don't need a leadoff hitter to be successful, I disagree with you pretty vehemently. I just did some checking, and it appears that every World Champion going back to at least 1988 (didn't have time to check more than that) has used a leadoff hitter in every game. Even the 1997 Marlins. Not having someone lead off would, I think, be poor strategy. |
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 20, 2014 21:12:18 GMT -5
This issue will be decided in ST after the roster is set and players are evaluated for OBP, base running acumen, experience, etc. Let's bring it up again in March. Do you think the team shouldn't address this until March? Yes. There are candidates already on the roster for this spot. Betts,as has been mentioned, is a prime candidate. BC doesn't have to make a trade for Coco Crisp, for example, to fill this spot. While it's fun to speculate on what the opening day lineup will be, bear in mind that this is late November. The issues of who will bat #1, #2, #3 in the lineup will be determined by the coaching staff after the ST roster is set and had an opportunity to establish its position. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 20, 2014 21:18:31 GMT -5
You don't need a leadoff hitter to be successful, I disagree with you pretty vehemently. I just did some checking, and it appears that every World Champion going back to at least 1988 (didn't have time to check more than that) has used a leadoff hitter in every game. Even the 1997 Marlins. Not having someone lead off would, I think, be poor strategy. This is the truth. |
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