Red Sox to sign Hanley Ramirez for $88m/4yr + Vest Option

And your being selective on my selectivity of jmei's selectivity.  I saw that the defensive metrics hurt his overall WAR rating..unfortunately there is a problem of actually having to play the field..so I believe it's relevant to his valuation.  If the past is prologue (and 5 out of the last 6 years he hasn't played 100 games)...it carries even more weight.

We definitely need offense so I am all on board and hope he can stay on the field.

Wait, what? Hanley?

2014: 128
2013: 86
2012: 157
2011: 92
2010: 142
2006-2009: Avg 154

He's had two years where injuries have really sapped him, and in 2013 he was at 191 WRC+. He's had one season where he hasn't been an elite player. He's been a top flight bat in 7 of his 9 career years.

They signed Hanley for his bat, which should be elite through most of his deal, and his lack of defense should be mitigated by moving from SS to 3B/LF, where he's more likely to come closer to an average defender

With Hanley and Panda and a backup catcher they have more than the 13 they will carry with no options. Cespedes, one of Nava, Napoli or Craig and likely WMB makes the most sense at this point.

Sox could also find themselves in a decent position to upgrade the PTBNL from the Cubs. I wouldn't expect pitching to be coming back though unless they involve a third team.

If they go over the luxury tax threshold, the tax rate they'd pay is 17.5%, which is not much at all. I wouldn't be surprised if they were $20m+ over the cap this year.

ADD: and I've discussed before how the idea that the new CBA strengthened the luxury tax has mostly been a red herring.

It makes sense to go all out on FA some years and lose no draft picks at all in others. Having a protected #1 helps a lot and if we sign even 3-4 compensated picks it doesn't hurt us that bad draft wise compared to the benefit. After signing Lester, a reliever like Miller/Gregerson.... and maybe trading for a Jaso they will already be over the cap in the current configuration and still be needing a #2 probably. With someone like Cespedes being dangled almost for sure to a team like Cinci for a Leake/ Latos etc...

I sense that they may still want Lester and Hamels to round off this team and go over the cap doing it but put the Sox right back in the catbird seat doing it but they do have a lot of options still and trades are highly likely to be in the mix.

I agree that insofar as Cespedes is a lock to be traded, they're going to clear payroll, but I don't think they necessarily have to trade Victorino or Craig just to save money. Fair point on the going under in future years point-- they already have a good amount of money committed to 2016, though 2017 and beyond looks pretty clean.

If they add 40m to cover their three needs (say, $24m Lester, $12m SP2, $4m RP), but subtract Cespedes ($9m AAV), they add $31m in payroll. Per Speier, they're roughly $14m below the cap (assuming Francisco is non-tendered), which means they'd only be $16m over, which seems pretty doable.

As a general statement, I think that's probably true, but we don't have to deal in general statements ... we know exactly what the Sox situation is. They have, without a doubt, $24 million on the current books in Cespedes and Victorino that can come off without being replaced by other players. Whether that can happen by trade this year or by attrition after 2015 season is irrelevant to the analysis of their 2016 situation.

Napoli is another $16 million that's coming off after next season, but he's complicated by the fact that you have to replace him somehow. Maybe that's taking Craig/Nava from backup roles this year into a platoon at first next year, which would be ideal from a payroll standpoint ... that would mean $40 million coming off that doesn't need to be replaced using any significant resources (you'd maybe have to add a player or two of depth, depending on what happens with JBJ/Cecchini/etc).

The reason the Sox can do all of this and go significantly over the cap is because of Cherington's strategy so far of signing guys to short contracts at high AAV. It leads to precisely this situation, where they can go over in a pretty significant way in one year without drowning their future.

Of course, this is leaving aside some roster issues ... they can't keep everyone this year even leaving aside payroll.

Check out the fan graphs article that really gives hard reasoned facts to specifically project Hanley and the panda in the fens.

www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hanley-panda-and-the-monster/

While his line drive rate may steal some dingers, if he runs correctly 50 doubles may be possible.

I think someone should climb in his head and suggest he could break records to get him sprinting but playing left (and aggressively throwing out guys at 2nd, which he should project to excel at) should teach him as well.

Overall, I'm really happy with both signings but Hanley in particular could regain his top 10 mlb hitter form.
This was the new inefficiency and the sox happily took advantage.

The youth movement makes this investment financially possible and the timing was necessary.

No impact free agents in the next few years come close and more and more guys are getting locked up with Stanton the obvious example.

Plus, signing everyone in one offseason when they aren't competing with the Yankees or Dodgers to bid them up.