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Red Sox sign Pablo Sandoval: 5 yrs/ 95 million + Club Option
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2014 10:59:54 GMT -5
Vlad without the power is the comp I've read over and over. Alternatively, Josh Hamilton, or A.J. Pierzynski, or Jeff Francoeur. Vlad was a truly unique player, and while Pablo is to some degree as well, I would still be wary of using a first-ballot HOF as a reasonable comp.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2014 11:42:37 GMT -5
Vlad without the power is the comp I've read over and over. Alternatively, Josh Hamilton, or A.J. Pierzynski, or Jeff Francoeur. Vlad was a truly unique player, and while Pablo is to some degree as well, I would still be wary of using a first-ballot HOF as a reasonable comp. Vlad with a .450 slugging percentage probably wouldn't be in the HOF so it's not that insane. In fact, Sandoval's OContact% is way higher than Vlad's.
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2014 14:18:33 GMT -5
The issue here is how he will age, and my point is that you shouldn't use the aging curve of a Hall of Famer (who is, by definition, truly exceptional) as a comparason to predict how Sandoval will age. Guerrero's O-Contact% actually increased every year from his age 27-32 seasons-- we certainly shouldn't expect Sandoval to follow that same trend.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2014 14:26:52 GMT -5
I wasn't really predicting his aging curve. Just comparing the free-swinging, elite contact type of players they are/were. None of the guys you mentioned above are anywhere close to Sandoval's O-Contact%.
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2014 14:49:09 GMT -5
Here's a quick-and-dirty 15 minute study. I looked at players in their age 24-29 seasons since 2002 (which is the earliest date that plate discipline stats exist on Fangraphs) and looked for guys like Sandoval with (a) high O-Swings and (b) high O-Contacts. I sorted first by O-Swing and then by O-Contact and took the guys with this profile (lots of swings, lots of contact) who appear in the top 30 of each list and who are now older than 30. Here is the list I came up with: Pablo Sandoval: 46.6% O-Swing, 78.9% O-Contact ----- Jeff Francoeur: 40.5% O-Swing, 69.6% O-Contact Erick Aybar: 36.9% O-Swing, 80.2% O-Contact Michael Morse: 36.8% O-Swing, 62.8% O-Contact Nate Schierholtz: 35.4% O-Swing, 68.5% O-Contact Robinson Cano: 35.2% O-Swing, 74.5% O-Contact Jose Lopez: 34.8% O-Swing, 77.1% O-Contact Ronny Cedeno: 34.7% O-Swing, 70.1% O-Contact Melky Cabrera: 33.2% O-Swing, 80.4% O-Contact Alexi Casilla: 31.4% O-Swing, 78.4% O-Contact Here is how these players looked in terms of plate discipline from age 29-35 (not all of them have reached that age).Aybar, Cabrera, and Cano followed the Vlad Guerrero example and saw their O-Contact% actually increase (though not by much), but everyone else saw it decline.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,704
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Post by nomar on Dec 3, 2014 14:49:27 GMT -5
To me it's a bigger deal that he bumps his wRC+ to 125 from here on out so we can put him to 1B eventually without being stuck with an overpaid fat guy who brings minimal value. He won't stay at 3B for his whole contract.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,704
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Post by nomar on Dec 3, 2014 14:54:30 GMT -5
Here's a quick-and-dirty 15 minute study. I looked at players in their age 24-29 seasons since 2002 (which is the earliest date that plate discipline stats exist on Fangraphs) and looked for guys like Sandoval with (a) high O-Swings and (b) high O-Contacts. I sorted first by O-Swing and then by O-Contact and took the guys with this profile (lots of swings, lots of contact) who appear in the top 30 of each list and who are now older than 30. Here is the list I came up with: Pablo Sandoval: 46.6% O-Swing, 78.9% O-Contact ----- Jeff Francoeur: 40.5% O-Swing, 69.6% O-Contact Erick Aybar: 36.9% O-Swing, 80.2% O-Contact Michael Morse: 36.8% O-Swing, 62.8% O-Contact Nate Schierholtz: 35.4% O-Swing, 68.5% O-Contact Robinson Cano: 35.2% O-Swing, 74.5% O-Contact Jose Lopez: 34.8% O-Swing, 77.1% O-Contact Ronny Cedeno: 34.7% O-Swing, 70.1% O-Contact Melky Cabrera: 33.2% O-Swing, 80.4% O-Contact Alexi Casilla: 31.4% O-Swing, 78.4% O-Contact Here is how these players looked in terms of plate discipline from age 29-35 (not all of them have reached that age).Aybar, Cabrera, and Cano followed the Vlad Guerrero example and saw their O-Contact% actually increase (though not by much), but everyone else saw it decline. Nice work in such a small time frame. Although he has an innate ability to make contact, Sandoval will likely have to swing a bit less on pitches out of the zone if he wants to age more gracefully.
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Post by michael on Dec 3, 2014 15:19:05 GMT -5
IIRC Papi was a pull hitter with a hole in the down breaking pitches. He learned relatively quickly to take some outside pitches to left. Let's hope Panda can learn from Papi. Left handed side of course. ?
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Post by ramireja on Dec 3, 2014 15:19:14 GMT -5
Here's a quick-and-dirty 15 minute study. I looked at players in their age 24-29 seasons since 2002 (which is the earliest date that plate discipline stats exist on Fangraphs) and looked for guys like Sandoval with (a) high O-Swings and (b) high O-Contacts. I sorted first by O-Swing and then by O-Contact and took the guys with this profile (lots of swings, lots of contact) who appear in the top 30 of each list and who are now older than 30. Here is the list I came up with: Pablo Sandoval: 46.6% O-Swing, 78.9% O-Contact ----- Jeff Francoeur: 40.5% O-Swing, 69.6% O-Contact Erick Aybar: 36.9% O-Swing, 80.2% O-Contact Michael Morse: 36.8% O-Swing, 62.8% O-Contact Nate Schierholtz: 35.4% O-Swing, 68.5% O-Contact Robinson Cano: 35.2% O-Swing, 74.5% O-Contact Jose Lopez: 34.8% O-Swing, 77.1% O-Contact Ronny Cedeno: 34.7% O-Swing, 70.1% O-Contact Melky Cabrera: 33.2% O-Swing, 80.4% O-Contact Alexi Casilla: 31.4% O-Swing, 78.4% O-Contact Here is how these players looked in terms of plate discipline from age 29-35 (not all of them have reached that age).Aybar, Cabrera, and Cano followed the Vlad Guerrero example and saw their O-Contact% actually increase (though not by much), but everyone else saw it decline. One thing this list suggests is that its truly difficult to find a comparable player to Panda. He ranks near the top of this list in O-contact despite swinging far more often outside the zone (almost 10% more than just the 2nd player on this list).
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2014 15:19:50 GMT -5
I wasn't really predicting his aging curve. Just comparing the free-swinging, elite contact type of players they are/were. None of the guys you mentioned above are anywhere close to Sandoval's O-Contact%. The primary point of using a comp is to help you predict a player's career path, right? Otherwise why cite a comp at all? Anyways, my point was just be wary of using HOF comps, because they can be very misleading. Guys reach the HOF by being exceptionally consistent and aging less than the average player, which by definition makes them bad comps. Pierzynski's O-Contact has been 77.4% since 2009, which is pretty close to Sandoval's career 78.9%, and Pierzynski's 44% O-Swing since then is a pretty good match for Sandoval's as well. If you're being nit-picky, Vlad Guerrero's 2002-onwards 67.4% O-Contact doesn't really come close to Sandoval's career mark, and Francoeur's career O-Contact comes closer to matching Sandoval's, as do most of the guys above. If you lose the age filter, the closest contemporary comps are probably Sal Perez and Jean Segura.
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2014 15:22:45 GMT -5
Here's a quick-and-dirty 15 minute study. I looked at players in their age 24-29 seasons since 2002 (which is the earliest date that plate discipline stats exist on Fangraphs) and looked for guys like Sandoval with (a) high O-Swings and (b) high O-Contacts. I sorted first by O-Swing and then by O-Contact and took the guys with this profile (lots of swings, lots of contact) who appear in the top 30 of each list and who are now older than 30. Here is the list I came up with: Pablo Sandoval: 46.6% O-Swing, 78.9% O-Contact ----- Jeff Francoeur: 40.5% O-Swing, 69.6% O-Contact Erick Aybar: 36.9% O-Swing, 80.2% O-Contact Michael Morse: 36.8% O-Swing, 62.8% O-Contact Nate Schierholtz: 35.4% O-Swing, 68.5% O-Contact Robinson Cano: 35.2% O-Swing, 74.5% O-Contact Jose Lopez: 34.8% O-Swing, 77.1% O-Contact Ronny Cedeno: 34.7% O-Swing, 70.1% O-Contact Melky Cabrera: 33.2% O-Swing, 80.4% O-Contact Alexi Casilla: 31.4% O-Swing, 78.4% O-Contact Here is how these players looked in terms of plate discipline from age 29-35 (not all of them have reached that age).Aybar, Cabrera, and Cano followed the Vlad Guerrero example and saw their O-Contact% actually increase (though not by much), but everyone else saw it decline. One thing this list suggests is that its truly difficult to find a comparable player to Panda. He ranks near the top of this list in O-contact despite swinging far more often outside the zone (almost 10% more than just the 2nd player on this list). Agreed, but the other issue is that plate discipline stats have only been available since 2002, so there just aren't a lot of guys who have had enough of their careers captured in that time span to be useful comps in terms of aging.
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2014 15:31:05 GMT -5
To me it's a bigger deal that he bumps his wRC+ to 125 from here on out so we can put him to 1B eventually without being stuck with an overpaid fat guy who brings minimal value. He won't stay at 3B for his whole contract. I'm not totally sure about this one. We sometimes let body profiles prejudice us about what a player can and can't do, which is why folks hate on Jhonny Peralta and Juan Uribe even though they've both stayed pretty good defenders even as they've aged. Granted, Sandoval is way fatter than either of those guys, but he's been an above-average defender despite that so far, and there's no guarantee that he drops off enough that you have to move him. I guess the overall takeaway is that Sandoval is a dude defies comps.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2014 15:42:29 GMT -5
Here's a quick-and-dirty 15 minute study. I looked at players in their age 24-29 seasons since 2002 (which is the earliest date that plate discipline stats exist on Fangraphs) and looked for guys like Sandoval with (a) high O-Swings and (b) high O-Contacts. I sorted first by O-Swing and then by O-Contact and took the guys with this profile (lots of swings, lots of contact) who appear in the top 30 of each list and who are now older than 30. Here is the list I came up with: Pablo Sandoval: 46.6% O-Swing, 78.9% O-Contact ----- Jeff Francoeur: 40.5% O-Swing, 69.6% O-Contact Erick Aybar: 36.9% O-Swing, 80.2% O-Contact Michael Morse: 36.8% O-Swing, 62.8% O-Contact Nate Schierholtz: 35.4% O-Swing, 68.5% O-Contact Robinson Cano: 35.2% O-Swing, 74.5% O-Contact Jose Lopez: 34.8% O-Swing, 77.1% O-Contact Ronny Cedeno: 34.7% O-Swing, 70.1% O-Contact Melky Cabrera: 33.2% O-Swing, 80.4% O-Contact Alexi Casilla: 31.4% O-Swing, 78.4% O-Contact Here is how these players looked in terms of plate discipline from age 29-35 (not all of them have reached that age).Aybar, Cabrera, and Cano followed the Vlad Guerrero example and saw their O-Contact% actually increase (though not by much), but everyone else saw it decline. I would imagine that O-Contact% could easily increase by lowering their O-Swing% (not swinging at balls at their foreheads or balls in the dirt and instead swinging at pitches closer to the zone).
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2014 15:47:42 GMT -5
I wasn't really predicting his aging curve. Just comparing the free-swinging, elite contact type of players they are/were. None of the guys you mentioned above are anywhere close to Sandoval's O-Contact%. The primary point of using a comp is to help you predict a player's career path, right? Otherwise why cite a comp at all? Anyways, my point was just be wary of using HOF comps, because they can be very misleading. Guys reach the HOF by being exceptionally consistent and aging less than the average player, which by definition makes them bad comps. Pierzynski's O-Contact has been 77.4% since 2009, which is pretty close to Sandoval's career 78.9%, and Pierzynski's 44% O-Swing since then is a pretty good match for Sandoval's as well. If you're being nit-picky, Vlad Guerrero's 2002-onwards 67.4% O-Contact doesn't really come close to Sandoval's career mark, and Francoeur's career O-Contact comes closer to matching Sandoval's, as do most of the guys above. If you lose the age filter, the closest contemporary comps are probably Sal Perez and Jean Segura. Another point I have is that AJP would have been considered a much better hitter if he hit the ball all over the field and had a similar BABIP to Sandoval because shifts don't work as well against him.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2014 1:44:03 GMT -5
Guys who play on the west coast can suffer more, if they're not night owls. They fly east, and they're playing games that start at 10 PM in their brain, and get over at 1:30 AM. Doesn't really do anything to the analysis, but you have your time zones backwards ... a 7pm ET start is 4pm on the body clock of a West Coast player, not 10pm. So, it's not so much if someone's a night owl or not in that situation. But I wonder if some people in general are affected more by time changes, and I'd guess some baseball players - with heavily routinized pre-game schedules - are more affected than others. And it's not as if I didn't stop and try to think it through! That I never experienced any jet lag until my sleep disorder morphed when I was 34, and have basically had it permanently ever since, is no excuse ... This travel effect makes just as much (or more) sense once once you get it right. He might well have trouble getting to bed on the East Coast, because the games are ending at 7:30 PM in his brain. If he's a guy who goes to bed at midnight and gets up at 8 AM on the left coast, he's going to bed at 3 AM and getting as little as 5 hours of sleep in the East (depending on opportunities to sleep in, which might well be limited due to team policies. At some point some smart GM will hire a circadian rhythms expert and tailor all of this stuff individually.) As a caveat, J.D. Drew had a bit of a similar split, and never got any discernible bump out of it. But there's a possibility that doing more travel within his home time zone will give Sandoval a boost. Re the plate discipline comps, yeah, there really aren't any. That's why I like my regression analysis, which used everybody, and showed either that it had no effect on aging curves at all, or that Sandoval projects to age well.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2014 8:12:17 GMT -5
Re the plate discipline comps, yeah, there really aren't any. That's why I like my regression analysis, which used everybody, and showed either that it had no effect on aging curves at all, or that Sandoval projects to age well. I didn't write this at the time, but there's a huge survivorship bias in that analysis. Players who couldn't either maintain their elite O-Contacts (a la Vlad) or improve the kinds of pitches they were swinging at weren't getting 350+ PAs in their 30s (think Jeff Francoeur). It ends up begging the question because you're only looking at guys who were still productive as they aged to figure out aging curves.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2014 14:36:34 GMT -5
Jeff Passan @jeffpassan · 40m 40 minutes ago Sources: Clubs being told Chase Headley has a four-year offer for ~$65M. @jonheymancbs says Marlins interested. Unclear if that's the team.
That is already a $16.25 mil AAV. Pablo was to this point less than $3mil difference per year and the gap may close further until all is said and done.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2014 17:29:06 GMT -5
Re the plate discipline comps, yeah, there really aren't any. That's why I like my regression analysis, which used everybody, and showed either that it had no effect on aging curves at all, or that Sandoval projects to age well. I didn't write this at the time, but there's a huge survivorship bias in that analysis. Players who couldn't either maintain their elite O-Contacts (a la Vlad) or improve the kinds of pitches they were swinging at weren't getting 350+ PAs in their 30s (think Jeff Francoeur). It ends up begging the question because you're only looking at guys who were still productive as they aged to figure out aging curves. Good point, but I can check the data to see who the dropouts were. In fact, I can do a regression analysis on dropout rate, with a simple 1 or 0 as dependent variable. Not simple in terms of data manipulation, but doable. I'll see if I can squeeze it in ...
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 14, 2014 18:33:37 GMT -5
I've heard all that before. We're not talking about warm moist air. Think cold dense air, with fog rolling in every once in a while. Believe me that air is denser than what you started with. As with most things, it depends. Just getting back to you. In Seattle, it doesn't depend at all. In the summer when the day warms up it's dry. When night falls along Puget Sound, the marine layer moves inland, and there is humidity but in the form of a cold dense layer. It's all about the dew point. There have been some questions in the past about Dave Cameron's player evaluation chops, when he was just starting up as a baseball blogger. But there's no question he knows Seattle since he lives there. He wrote this up for FanGraphs two years ago, and it includes a link to the meteorology of summertime Seattle. It's the same way up and down the West Coast once it warms up. In the immortal words of the great philosopher Bill Belichick, it is what it is.
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