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Xander Bogaerts's SS defense
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Post by Guidas on Nov 24, 2014 15:02:32 GMT -5
Just a thought - if somehow Xander is traded the Sox will not be denied on Moncada. He won't be a shortstop in the MLB so I don't think the two are correlated. Neither will Xander.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 24, 2014 15:20:57 GMT -5
He won't be a shortstop in the MLB so I don't think the two are correlated. Neither will Xander. Maybe not in 2020 but for the time being he 100% is
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Post by Guidas on Nov 24, 2014 15:22:26 GMT -5
Sure. Like Gattis is a right fielder.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 24, 2014 15:36:49 GMT -5
Sure. Like Gattis is a right fielder. A -3.7 UZR/150 at SS is hardly comparable to Gattis' -24 UZR/150 in LF. Some people are below average defenders. When you're going to have a well above average bat for that given position it is offset. He could transition to 3B/OF our of need, but today and given the current roster, he's a shortstop.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 24, 2014 17:14:19 GMT -5
Sure. Like Gattis is a right fielder. A -3.7 UZR/150 at SS is hardly comparable to Gattis' -24 UZR/150 in LF. Some people are below average defenders. When you're going to have a well above average bat for that given position it is offset. He could transition to 3B/OF our of need, but today and given the current roster, he's a shortstop. Among shortstops with at least 700 innings (admittedly completely arbitrary), Xander's -3.7 UZR/150 was 18th. There were 9 shortstops in the game who were above 2.0. Xander was better than the likes of Elvis Andrus (not knowing much about UZR, I'll admit that's probably hurt by Beltre being a certified G at 3B), Jose Reyes, Everth Cabrera, and Adeiny Hechevarria. Using just UZR (-2.7), add Starlin Castro to those who he was better than in finishing 17th overall. I don't get where you get this idea that he's some butcher at shortstop. He's no Marrero or Iglesias, but there's every reason to believe he'll settle in as a league-average shortstop, or at least a passable one. If he gives you above-average offense (generally speaking, not just for shortstops, for whom the bar is crazy low) from the position, which he should, then that's a huge net positive.
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Post by thursty on Nov 25, 2014 12:50:16 GMT -5
No he's not a butcher, but he is a statue. How many plays did Xander make in 2014 where he went into the hole onto the OF grass and threw out a runner at 1B? Zero. Nada. None. Never. Soha.
He is a mediocre athlete, and *that* has nothing to do with being 21.
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Post by thursty on Nov 25, 2014 12:59:35 GMT -5
Oh, and for further irony, Xander was tied for 19th in DRS (-9) at SS - his Siamese twin? Hanley Ramirez
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Post by ramireja on Nov 25, 2014 13:00:06 GMT -5
No he's not a butcher, but he is a statue. How many plays did Xander make in 2014 where he went into the hole onto the OF grass and threw out a runner at 1B? Zero. Nada. None. Never. Soha. He is a mediocre athlete, and *that* has nothing to do with being 2 1.Now thats a sophisticated way to evaluate a player's defensive value.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 25, 2014 16:46:40 GMT -5
No he's not a butcher, but he is a statue. How many plays did Xander make in 2014 where he went into the hole onto the OF grass and threw out a runner at 1B? Zero. Nada. None. Never. Soha. He is a mediocre athlete, and *that* has nothing to do with being 2 1.The specific play you request isn't represented here, but there are plenty of examples of his athleticism: redsox.mlb.com/search/media.jsp?player_id=593428&start=1&trackVal=1&hitsPerPage=12&hitsPerSite=10&c_id=mlbAlso, hard to make plays from deep in the hole when you're at third base for half the season. Dustin Pedroia didn't throw anybody out from the hole at short either. Must not be a good defender. Again, nobody here is saying he's Andrelton Simmons. He doesn't need to be. By the way, on the specific play you mention, I'd say the problem is less his athleticism and more his arm - which is probably something like fringe-average maybe? - as there are plenty of examples in those highlights of him ranging to start double plays. Arm doesn't come off great in those videos.
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Post by thursty on Nov 25, 2014 17:24:40 GMT -5
No he's not a butcher, but he is a statue. How many plays did Xander make in 2014 where he went into the hole onto the OF grass and threw out a runner at 1B? Zero. Nada. None. Never. Soha. He is a mediocre athlete, and *that* has nothing to do with being 2 1.The specific play you request isn't represented here, but there are plenty of examples of his athleticism: redsox.mlb.com/search/media.jsp?player_id=593428&start=1&trackVal=1&hitsPerPage=12&hitsPerSite=10&c_id=mlbAlso, hard to make plays from deep in the hole when you're at third base for half the season. Dustin Pedroia didn't throw anybody out from the hole at short either. Must not be a good defender. Again, nobody here is saying he's Andrelton Simmons. He doesn't need to be. By the way, on the specific play you mention, I'd say the problem is less his athleticism and more his arm - which is probably something like fringe-average maybe? - as there are plenty of examples in those highlights of him ranging to start double plays. Arm doesn't come off great in those videos. The one play he does pretty well, is coming in on balls/choppers that kind of thing (which is one of the reasons it's a bit surprising his struggles at 3B). He played ~ 900 innings at SS in 2014, Pedroia 0 - so that's just silliness. Do you really consider Xander an elite athlete (for a SS)? I didn't think that comment was anything more than descriptive. One thing that really hit home while watching the playoffs this year, was the marked difference in the athleticism of the SS's: Desmond (what a cannon he has), Crawford, Escobar, Aybar (none named Simmons); they're all superior athletes to Xander, it's not really controversial. Now, one can be a great offensive player without being a great athlete (Ortiz, Youkilis are familiar examples), and who knows, maybe Xander will reach those heights (he's just turned 22 after all), but he's got a ceiling as a left infielder and it's not a high one.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 25, 2014 17:58:27 GMT -5
The specific play you request isn't represented here, but there are plenty of examples of his athleticism: redsox.mlb.com/search/media.jsp?player_id=593428&start=1&trackVal=1&hitsPerPage=12&hitsPerSite=10&c_id=mlbAlso, hard to make plays from deep in the hole when you're at third base for half the season. Dustin Pedroia didn't throw anybody out from the hole at short either. Must not be a good defender. Again, nobody here is saying he's Andrelton Simmons. He doesn't need to be. By the way, on the specific play you mention, I'd say the problem is less his athleticism and more his arm - which is probably something like fringe-average maybe? - as there are plenty of examples in those highlights of him ranging to start double plays. Arm doesn't come off great in those videos. The one play he does pretty well, is coming in on balls/choppers that kind of thing (which is one of the reasons it's a bit surprising his struggles at 3B). He played ~ 900 innings at SS in 2014, Pedroia 0 - so that's just silliness. Do you really consider Xander an elite athlete (for a SS)? I didn't think that comment was anything more than descriptive. One thing that really hit home while watching the playoffs this year, was the marked difference in the athleticism of the SS's: Desmond (what a cannon he has), Crawford, Escobar, Aybar (none named Simmons); they're all superior athletes to Xander, it's not really controversial. Now, one can be a great offensive player without being a great athlete (Ortiz, Youkilis are familiar examples), and who knows, maybe Xander will reach those heights (he's just turned 22 after all), but he's got a ceiling as a left infielder and it's not a high one. I never said he's an elite athlete, but he's also definitely not a "statue," which is what I was responding to. You make it sound like he's got Jeter range. There isn't a binary between "great athlete" or "Ortiz/Youkilis non-athlete." Seriously, look at plays like this: m.mlb.com/video/v35928503/?c_id=mlb and tell me he's not at least a solid-average athlete for the position. I'll give you that his arm is fringy, but I think in part it's from a lack of confidence - he has had issues with accuracy in the past and I think that's in his head a bit, which reps will hopefully work out. Also, Hanley Ramirez and Jhonny Peralta disagree that all of the shortstops in the playoffs were superior athletes. Let's not paint with too broad a brush there.
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Post by terriblehondo on Nov 26, 2014 7:14:41 GMT -5
Xander does not have a good 1st step. That and he is not very good at turning double plays when feeding or receiving the ball. Underhand feeds from 20' away when you are trying to turn 2 who the hell does that? I think the same thing watching him play as I did watching Hanley play short with the Marlins. As a shortstop they look like they would make a good outfielder. Xander is not close to the athlete that Hanley was at the same age. But I think Xander is more steady fielder than Hanley was. Hopefully Xander will make huge strides in the field and at the plate.
As far as SS in the playoffs go if Escobar played SS for the A's instead of Lowrie the A's would have won that playoff game. So defense does make a big difference especially in the playoffs.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 26, 2014 8:29:26 GMT -5
Based on the signings, Red Sox have made it pretty clear that Xander is the SS and SS only - at least here in Boston.
Everyone who trashes Xander's D and feels him to be inadequate - please tell me your plan to go out and get a clear upgrade and what you are willing to give up. I'm really intrigued by what you consider to be the alternative. Marrero is not ready.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Nov 26, 2014 8:44:39 GMT -5
Xander obviously has a ways to go defensively - there's not much to debate there.
But in his defense, he was starting to play really well for an extended stretch right before the Red Sox's (ridiculous) decision to resign Drew. While he might not have the quickest feet, he has plenty of athleticism, which allows him to make plays outside the traditional SS zone.
I'm curious to see what his defense looks like without any interruptions for an entire offseason and season.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 26, 2014 9:17:11 GMT -5
Xanders future is at Fist Base. But for this year he is a SS.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 26, 2014 14:56:50 GMT -5
Xanders future is at Fist Base. But for this year he is a SS. Lol
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Post by Guidas on Nov 26, 2014 15:45:56 GMT -5
When I say he's no SS I mean it in the same way I don't think Lowrie or Escobar or Hanley are SSs. Not that Xander can't stand out there and make some plays, but he's costing you base runners and runs in doing it. Heck, his UZR/150 in 2014 was worse than any year Julio Lugo had in Boston. I'm sure there are metrics that say this isn't true and Xander is much better than that but I'm not buying it. I read the same about Jeter over the last 5+ years.
To his credit, Xander is young and should improve, and of course at his age he should be in AA/AAA. But he's in MLB, and as such he's a substandard defensive shortstop. Why play the game of hoping/relying on his offense to off-set this and may provide added value for the position, but why take the offset when the average MLB SS is about a 250/.300/.390 hitter? I'd prefer to take that offensive line at the position and get a superior defensive SS (same at catcher if a choice has to be made). Moot point now with Hanley in LF - which is where I think Xander could perhaps be above average defensively, and in the current offensively starved league be above average offensively, too.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 26, 2014 15:59:43 GMT -5
Also, Hanley Ramirez and Jhonny Peralta disagree that all of the shortstops in the playoffs were superior athletes. Let's not paint with too broad a brush there. Yeah, but those guys lost. We all know that you can't win championships without a top flight defensive shortstop.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 26, 2014 16:06:04 GMT -5
Heck, his UZR/150 in 2014 was worse than any year Julio Lugo had in Boston. Dude, Xander had a -3.7 UZR/150 in 880 innings at short. If you're trying to say he can't do much more than "stand out there and make some plays," that's not the stat to be using. And Lugo's UZR/150 was -63.1 in his 243.1 innings in 2009 for us (-50.6 in 401.1 innings overall).
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 26, 2014 16:27:55 GMT -5
Heck, his UZR/150 in 2014 was worse than any year Julio Lugo had in Boston. Dude, Xander had a -3.7 UZR/150 in 880 innings at short. If you're trying to say he can't do much more than "stand out there and make some plays," that's not the stat to be using. And Lugo's UZR/150 was -63.1 in his 243.1 innings in 2009 for us (-50.6 in 401.1 innings overall). If he cut down on routine errors, which you would predict would happen over time, he might have a positive defensive value. And the remarks on his athleticism are absolutely ridiculous. He may not be fast, but he's a tremendous athlete. Most guys of his size would be completely incapable of playing short.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 26, 2014 16:51:25 GMT -5
Dude, Xander had a -3.7 UZR/150 in 880 innings at short. If you're trying to say he can't do much more than "stand out there and make some plays," that's not the stat to be using. And Lugo's UZR/150 was -63.1 in his 243.1 innings in 2009 for us (-50.6 in 401.1 innings overall). If he cut down on routine errors, which you would predict would happen over time, he might have a positive defensive value. And the remarks on his athleticism are absolutely ridiculous. He may not be fast, but he's a tremendous athlete. Most guys of his size would be completely incapable of playing short. Well, that actually wasn't the problem in 2014. He had a higher fielding percentage than the average shortstop, and his error runs above average component of UZR was +1.7. It was his -2.2 mark on double play runs above average - a play he was often noticeably pretty bad at turning -- and -2.3 range runs above average that lead to the negative rating.
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Post by Gwell55 on Nov 26, 2014 16:58:49 GMT -5
If he cut down on routine errors, which you would predict would happen over time, he might have a positive defensive value. And the remarks on his athleticism are absolutely ridiculous. He may not be fast, but he's a tremendous athlete. Most guys of his size would be completely incapable of playing short. Well, that actually wasn't the problem in 2014. He had a higher fielding percentage than the average shortstop, and his error runs above average component of UZR was +1.7. It was his -2.2 mark on double play runs above average - a play he was often noticeably pretty bad at turning -- and -2.3 range runs above average that lead to the negative rating. How did they average all those bad throws that turned into base runners and runs off of errors?
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Post by thursty on Nov 26, 2014 17:19:16 GMT -5
Ha Ha. Xander Bogaerts - the slow, noodle-armed tremendous athlete. You guys need professional help
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 27, 2014 14:30:03 GMT -5
Xander at SS was involved directly in eight plays reviewed by instant replay, of which only three were ruled outs. That's a lot of plays, and hence a lot of luck, and it went against him. That certainly adds to the uncertainty of the defensive metrics.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 27, 2014 14:36:27 GMT -5
Xander at SS was involved directly in eight plays reviewed by instant replay, of which only three were ruled outs. That's a lot of plays, and hence a lot of luck, and it went against him. That certainly adds to the uncertainty of the defensive metrics. Just to make sure, you're saying that five plays made that much of a difference AND implying that he even should have had more of them in the first place? If anything, I'd say it's indicative of his fringy arm leading to closer plays.
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