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Post by James Dunne on Dec 6, 2014 21:45:01 GMT -5
Seriously, batting average? But then to talk about defense you go into advanced stats when it comes to defense? Grandal has a career OBP of .350, a career SLG of .412, and he's done that in the worst park to hit in baseball. He's already about a major league average catcher. On top of that, Cespedes is of zero use to the Padres. He's not going to help them win this year, he's not going to re-sign there, and they can't get a QO for him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2014 2:25:09 GMT -5
He hit .225 .327 .401 .728 in 377 AB last year, good for 1.2 WAR, Bradley was .6 WAR. Bradley is 24, Grandal just turned 26. Yes I used advanced stats for D, it clearly shows Bradley as elite and Grandal as below average. Long term Grandal above average bat, below average D, Bradley average bat, elite D. I just don't like below average D for a catcher. If I had to bet, I think Bradley is the better long term player. I'm high on Bradley, lot of talent there. Only time will tell. Can see a team like the A's trading for Bradley and him turning into the players his minor league numbers indicate he'll become. Just because the Padres don't want Cespedes, doesn't mean its not a fair offer/trade, just that they won't make the deal. Big difference. Also you can always trade Cespedes at the deadline, where a few teams will always overpay to make a run at a championship.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 7, 2014 21:25:56 GMT -5
If the sox trade cespedes for Kennedy, what can we expect from Kennedy in the al east and 10 to 15 starts in Fenway?
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 7, 2014 22:25:12 GMT -5
Despite hitting below his previous career numbers, Grandal's 111 wRC+ was 8th in baseball among 23 catchers with, 400 or more plate appearances. He's one of the 15 or so best catchers in baseball already.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 9, 2014 0:56:38 GMT -5
He might be one of the 15th best hitting catchers in baseball, not overall catchers. Huge difference! Can't stress this enough, on a rebuilding team he played less games at catcher then a career minor leaguer.
As for Kennedy my gut says he gets killed, but his strikeout numbers have been very good. He worries me, but I am interested to see how he would do.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
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Post by nomar on Dec 9, 2014 4:20:05 GMT -5
Grandal is definitely above average in the framing aspect which is a positive.
Unless we trade Swihart I'd see no reason to pursue a Grandal trade still. And even then, he may not be a fit because we'd likely commit to Vazquez.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 9, 2014 9:06:58 GMT -5
Kennedy is known as an extreme fly ball pitcher. Petco Park is made for him. He could have trouble adjusting to AL East parks an to the DH.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 9, 2014 19:37:17 GMT -5
Kennedy is known as an extreme fly ball pitcher. Petco Park is made for him. He could have trouble adjusting to AL East parks an to the DH. I agree. Ross and quackenbush would be the preferred pitchers we should grab from San diego.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2014 18:04:28 GMT -5
We just aren't going to agree on this, and that's fine, that's why its a message board. You're right, the only names "on the market" that are a decent bet to hit 20hr other than Cespedes are Cruz (now signed with the Ms) and Upton. However, I don't believe that the ability to hit 20hr necessarily matters when you're talking about value that we can expect to get back. The two teams that were just in the World Series had two 20hr hitters in their line-ups, combined. But we put a different "value" on the ability to hit 20hr, and what we think that is worth in terms of assets. The other thing to keep in mind about Cespedes is that I think we need to trade him. If not, he's taking at-bats away from some combination of Ramirez, Castillo, Betts and Ortiz, and I think of that having negative value to the Red Sox. I suppose we can just wait and see what Cespedes is traded for, but I don't think that on his own he's going to fetch a starting pitcher that projects to have a WAR above 2.0 (though I hope to be wrong). Regarding Buchholz and the other three prospects I mentioned, you are likely right in that they could combine to get more WAR (just to give a value based statistic) than Ross. However I don't think of WAR as cumulative, so I'd argue that if Buccholz is a 1.5WAR pitcher, and the other three each average .5WAR each, they would worth more WAR (3) than Tyson Ross would put up if he repeated last season (2.6WAR), and while that's true, I think of the 2.6WAR player as being more "valuable" than four guys combining to give 3WAR. Especially since we currently don't have a pitcher on the entire roster that projects to have a WAR above 2.1 this coming season. If we set the projection of Buchholz WAR at 2.2 this season, I'd bet the under. The team also currently has a 40-man roster crunch as well. We still need at least 2 starting pitchers, likely another arm for the bullpen, and a back up catcher. If Cespedes is a one for one trade, that brings it down to SP1, BP and C. Signing three free agents there would mean we'd have to cut three players, or package players. I think packaging players is the way to go, and I'd rather package them for a young player with multiple years of control. Agree to disagree, I suppose. I don't expect to convince you to see it how I do (or vice versa) but I wanted to explain exactly where I was coming from there. I'm fine to let it go if you are and we can agree to disagree. What about a friendly bet though. If we trade Cespedes and a players of a lesser prospect rank than Ranaudo (9) and get back someone with a higher WAR last season than Ross (2.6WAR) I'll make my avatar a picture of Cespedes until opening day. If we don't get back someone of that calibre (or have to really increase the pay out to get someone that high) you have to have a picture of Tyson Ross for the same duration? Please change your Avatar my friend. You should be happy about this Cespedes got us Porcello.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 11, 2014 20:13:31 GMT -5
I was just coming in to do this. I'll even give you a bonus "you were right and I was wrong about his value".
For the record, I'm THRILLED to be wrong. I believe Porcello is a number one in the making, and I'm hoping we extend him post haste.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 11, 2014 21:01:27 GMT -5
I was just coming in to do this. I'll even give you a bonus "you were right and I was wrong about his value". For the record, I'm THRILLED to be wrong. I believe Porcello is a number one in the making, and I'm hoping we extend him post haste. Wow. Why do you think he is a potential #1?
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 11, 2014 21:10:56 GMT -5
Great question Larry. I explained this a little bit in the "Which Pitcher Would You Flip" thread, but overall there are three main stats I look at for pitchers to try and account for league and park adjustments. They are the last two years of starting pitching WAR, ERA- and xFIP. In my mind there are (roughly) Aces (which I think of as top 12), guys who are number 1s (13-25), guys who are number 2s (26-50) and guys who are number 3s (51-75) as outlined for a top division team (like the Red Sox) so I've bumped up the numbers from the standard 30 pitchers for each slot based on number of teams.
In those categories, Porcello ranks 24th, 44th and 21st over the last two years. Beyond that, he's still only 26, so hasn't even entered his prime yet. In nearly all of those trends, he's improved year over year since his first full season (so I think he's trending the right way). As such, right now, I think he's a probably a top tier number 2 (though I think it could be argued he might currently be a low tier number 1 also, averaging about a 30 from those three stats) and at only 26, a very good bet to get better - at least in my opinion.
Fully admit, people have arbitrary ways of defining where a pitcher "slots" so to speak, but that's at least how I look at it. If other people have things they consider, I'd be interested to learn about them, though.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 22:07:38 GMT -5
Ehhhh I would never call Porcello a 1. Maybe a 2, but a top tier 3 is where I'd peg him. He doesn't strike enough people out to be considered any better than a #2, and he likely never will. He'd have to completely stop walking people and cut the amount of HRs he give up to be a #1 at the rate he Ks people at now. He pitches to contact, and when balls are put in play as often as they are with Porcello, it's hard to put up elite numbers.
Maddux and Halladay didn't strike out too many people, but even they generated more swing and misses in a far better hitting era. Porcello realistically might sustain a 6.5 K/9 eventually, but to be a #1 starter he'd have to complement that with a <1.5 BB/9 and really limit HRs if he wants to be a #1 quality starter.
He's good and probably will get even better, but his ceiling isn't that high. Still glad to have him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 12, 2014 0:27:55 GMT -5
Porcello is a good young pitcher that has been getting better, but he's not a one yet. Last year he pitched like a #2, was 22nd in rWAR at 4.0, 2013 was a #3 WAR 2.4, 2009 to 2012 he was a 4/5 starter. He has a chance to become a #1, but more likely he's a solid 2/3 starter, which is great.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 12, 2014 14:15:07 GMT -5
So I am curious about Ross and Cashner, I have seen exactly 1 Padres game in the last couple of years and Cashner pitched, I remember he was effective but I can't honestly say that anything stood out to me stuff wise (though it is possible that I wasn't paying all that close attention). I haven't seen Ross pitch since he was in Oakland, wasn't that impressed then, but he has had good stats in San Diego. My question is, does either of these guys profile as more of a front of the rotation starter, and substantial upgrade over the pitchers currently in our rotation. They are both young (beginning of their prime age wise), with at least 2 years of control, and affordable salary wise (though arbitration eligible). Would either of these guys be worth giving up a solid package of prospects/depth to acquire?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 12, 2014 15:30:33 GMT -5
So I am curious about Ross and Cashner, I have seen exactly 1 Padres game in the last couple of years and Cashner pitched, I remember he was effective but I can't honestly say that anything stood out to me stuff wise (though it is possible that I wasn't paying all that close attention). I haven't seen Ross pitch since he was in Oakland, wasn't that impressed then, but he has had good stats in San Diego. My question is, does either of these guys profile as more of a front of the rotation starter, and substantial upgrade over the pitchers currently in our rotation. They are both young (beginning of their prime age wise), with at least 2 years of control, and affordable salary wise (though arbitration eligible). Would either of these guys be worth giving up a solid package of prospects/depth to acquire? I see Ross and Cashner as 3/4 types right now. I think Cashner has more upside if he can stay healthy. So far I haven't seen anything that shows me they can become front line starters, but you never know.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
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Post by nomar on Dec 12, 2014 19:10:59 GMT -5
I don't see how Cashner has more upside than Ross. He's a year older and strikes out fewer batters. Im cautious about both though.
It's always hard for me to trust pitchers from San Diego. Both guys are significantly worse on the road. Cashner pitches to contact too much for my liking. He's doesn't get too many groundballs. I think he might get bullied in the AL East.
Ross has a big middle of the order split and people worry about his health because he throws a ton of sliders. What Ross has going for him is that his slider had great results in SwStk% of 23 and a GB% above 50%. His two seamer had a GB% of 72%. He's become a great groundball pitcher, but he only has one pitch that makes people miss.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 12, 2014 21:02:24 GMT -5
Brendan,
For the record, I'm a big fan of both Ross and Cashner, a little bit moreso Ross as I do think he has the greater upside as well. While the home / away splits for both are a bit concerning, I do think that Ross profiles a bit better, and his last two years of xFIP (to account for park and league adjustments) come in at 3.43 and 3.11 respectively.
While (depending on the package) I'd like to acquire either one, Ross is the one I really want to go after. I'd be a bit leery of his drastic increase in k/9 moving from the AL to the NL, but it could also be a young pitcher harnessing his stuff. After looking into him a lot more the past couple of weeks since his name has come up, I'd agree that he's currently more of a number 3 starter at present, but if he can duplicate (and even improve) on his last season, he's certainly a number 2 starter and has three years of control left.
As to what I'd be willing to give up to acquire him, that's been discussed earlier in the thread, but as Cespedes has been moved (and my avatar changed to reflect that I was incorrect about his value in the market), I'd be more than happy to start with Buchholz and build a sufficient prospect package to go along with him, obviously keeping out the top names and focusing on players that are still part of our relative 40 man roster crunch (similar to the Miley deal) that still exists.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2014 17:28:47 GMT -5
I like Cashner more because he has better control. Sure he doesn't strike a lot of guys out, but his k/b ratio was 3.21, Ross had a 2.71. I'm looking at the two players and asking myself which one fits better in the AL East and I think its Cashner. Also Cashner has lower WHIP the last two years along with lower ERA. The only thing Ross does better is strikeouts.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
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Post by nomar on Dec 13, 2014 17:57:15 GMT -5
I like Cashner more because he has better control. Sure he doesn't strike a lot of guys out, but his k/b ratio was 3.21, Ross had a 2.71. I'm looking at the two players and asking myself which one fits better in the AL East and I think its Cashner. Also Cashner has lower WHIP the last two years along with lower ERA. The only thing Ross does better is strikeouts. And groundball rate and he's younger than Cashner
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2014 18:46:42 GMT -5
Ross is seven months younger, not a huge difference. Cashner had an rWAR of 1.9 in 19 starts, Ross had rWAR of 2.4 in 31 starts. That's .1 WAR per start for Cashner and .08 WAR for Ross. If Casher had made 31 starts and performed at the same level he would have 3.1 WAR. You could say Ross is better due to being more durable and making 31 starts. Though he has only done that once. You like the younger strikeout guy and I like the control guy that just needs to stay healthy. Time will tell who's right, can't wait till next season.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 13, 2014 19:30:28 GMT -5
Ross is seven months younger, not a huge difference. Cashner had an rWAR of 1.9 in 19 starts, Ross had rWAR of 2.4 in 31 starts. That's .1 WAR per start for Cashner and .08 WAR for Ross. If Casher had made 31 starts and performed at the same level he would have 3.1 WAR. You could say Ross is better due to being more durable and making 31 starts. Though he has only done that once. You like the younger strikeout guy and I like the control guy that just needs to stay healthy. Time will tell who's right, can't wait till next season. I would love to trade for Ross and hopefully quackenbush as well,
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Post by ifixbadcredit on Jul 25, 2015 18:21:50 GMT -5
I wonder if San Diego would be interested in a bad contract swap with Kemp for Sandoval plus 5m for pablo's buyout? Maybe expand it to Margot, J Guerra, and H Owens for Ross. The sox could sign Uribe in the offseason on a short deal until Moncada is ready.
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Post by arzjake on Jul 25, 2015 19:30:03 GMT -5
I would call about Shields. Sandoval and lower level A type prospects for Shields, Kimbrell. If SD would include Ross, Id take on MUpton. Shields 3yrs 63 gives you a quality arm. Yes another 20 mill to a rotation, But, you should get 15 18 wins and a era under 4. Kimbrell is an elite closer, trade Koji money offsets...
You add Shields to replace CBuc. if CBuc needs TJ you dump his option and possibly re-sign him to a lesser deal. Free up coin
Padres farm system is not stacked. 1 player in the Top 100 and that player is 23 yrs old in AA. Plenty of pieces to get something done for both Teams here. Looks like a great matchup for both sides moving towards 16
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2015 20:53:41 GMT -5
I'm wary of Shields and his fly ball tendencies (especially with Fenway as his home park), velocity decline (has been 92.3, 92.2, 92.4 the last three years; declined to 91.3 this year, per PITCHf/x), and backloaded contract (though note that luxury tax is calculated with AAV, so it might not matter). If the prospects required are low-level enough, I might still do it (Shields' peripherals have still been pretty good this year, and I love me some Kimbrel), but I'm far less confident than you that Shields is a good bet to be an above-average pitcher.
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