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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 25, 2015 21:21:24 GMT -5
... I'm far less confident than you that Shields is a good bet to be an above-average pitcher. Then he'll feel right at home here.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 26, 2015 11:53:07 GMT -5
I'm wary of Shields and his fly ball tendencies (especially with Fenway as his home park), velocity decline (has been 92.3, 92.2, 92.4 the last three years; declined to 91.3 this year, per PITCHf/x), and backloaded contract (though note that luxury tax is calculated with AAV, so it might not matter). If the prospects required are low-level enough, I might still do it (Shields' peripherals have still been pretty good this year, and I love me some Kimbrel), but I'm far less confident than you that Shields is a good bet to be an above-average pitcher. I think Shields helps this team, but not sure we have to send prospects unless they eat a good amount of money. I'm thinking Allen Craig for Shields. They shed a lot of money, if you minus Craig's money from Shields your paying him close to market rate. Win win for both teams.
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Post by jdb on Jul 26, 2015 12:02:53 GMT -5
I would love a Panda for Shields trade. Shields will eat innings at the very least and we could get out from Sandaval before he has to move to 1B. Who knows maybe Shields pitches well enough he uses his opt out next offseason.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2015 12:14:51 GMT -5
I would love a Panda for Shields trade. Shields will eat innings at the very least and we could get out from Sandaval before he has to move to 1B. Who knows maybe Shields pitches well enough he uses his opt out next offseason. Shields is a bad fit, but him for Sandoval would be a no brainer.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 26, 2015 12:25:46 GMT -5
Reports are that Padres want to trade Shields to clear his payroll, as they back loaded a ton of deals and their payroll is set to exploded next year. A trade of Sandoval for Shields doesn't save them much money.
Just move Sandoval to first base, he should be a gold glove caliber player there and make Holt our 3rd baseman.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2015 12:31:11 GMT -5
Reports are that Padres want to trade Shields to clear his payroll, as they back loaded a ton of deals and their payroll is set to exploded next year. A trade of Sandoval for Shields doesn't save them much money. Just move Sandoval to first base, he should be a gold glove caliber player there and make Holt our 3rd baseman. That Sandoval comment is sarcastic, right?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 26, 2015 12:58:33 GMT -5
I would love a Panda for Shields trade. Shields will eat innings at the very least and we could get out from Sandaval before he has to move to 1B. Who knows maybe Shields pitches well enough he uses his opt out next offseason. Shields is a bad fit, but him for Sandoval would be a no brainer. I actually think this trade could work, with some tweaks. Shields is owed 3/$65mm after 2015 and Sandoval is owed 4/$77.4mm after 2015. There's a $7.6mm difference this year (or approx. $2.5mm prorated). I would add Benoit to even out the money and throw in JBJ to give SDO some value for Benoit. BOS trades Sandoval and JBJ to SDO for Shields and Benoit Benoit evens out 2015 cash (he has a $1.5mm buyout or an $8mm contract for 2016) and he can be kept or flipped. BTW, I don't really want Shields but just trying to figure out an even trade. Both teams call it a "change of scenery" trade. Holt, Shaw and Marrero take over 3B and 2B for now, and the rotation becomes Shields, Porcello, Miley, Rodriguez and Kelly (assuming Buchholz is out for the rest of the year).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 26, 2015 13:11:17 GMT -5
Reports are that Padres want to trade Shields to clear his payroll, as they back loaded a ton of deals and their payroll is set to exploded next year. A trade of Sandoval for Shields doesn't save them much money. Just move Sandoval to first base, he should be a gold glove caliber player there and make Holt our 3rd baseman. That Sandoval comment is sarcastic, right? Not at all, I feel Sandoval would be a great first baseman. He would have some of the best range at first base in the whole league
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2015 15:01:54 GMT -5
Shields is a bad fit, but him for Sandoval would be a no brainer. I actually think this trade could work, with some tweaks. Shields is owed 3/$65mm after 2015 and Sandoval is owed 4/$77.4mm after 2015. There's a $7.6mm difference this year (or approx. $2.5mm prorated). I would add Benoit to even out the money and throw in JBJ to give SDO some value for Benoit. BOS trades Sandoval and JBJ to SDO for Shields and Benoit Benoit evens out 2015 cash (he has a $1.5mm buyout or an $8mm contract for 2016) and he can be kept or flipped. BTW, I don't really want Shields but just trying to figure out an even trade. Both teams call it a "change of scenery" trade. Holt, Shaw and Marrero take over 3B and 2B for now, and the rotation becomes Shields, Porcello, Miley, Rodriguez and Kelly (assuming Buchholz is out for the rest of the year). This is fair, but obviously it hasn't been rumored in the slightest bit so I doubt it materializes. It would kind of sting to lose JBJ as I think RF should be his for 2016 at least, but if we have to sacrifice him to get Sandoval out of town, it would be tempting. You would have two holes for the following season at 3B and RF (although Holt could fill one). I wouldn't count on Castillo. Very odd year for Shields. He's lost 1 mph on his FB, but his K% is way up even taking into account its in the NL, and his BB% is way up as well, along with his insane 1.42 HR/9.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 26, 2015 18:52:25 GMT -5
Best case scenario for the Padres is they trade shields for near ready prospects or cost controlled ml youngsters.
So while we match up really well with them, I just can not see bc going there,
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 27, 2015 11:34:21 GMT -5
Guys this is all about money. The Padres are a small market team that thought a contending team could increase revenue to the point were they could have a higher payroll in future years. The team has not been a contender, so the team didn't make extra revenue and thus can't afford next years payroll. Without eating a ton of Shields salary they are not going to be able to get any prospects for him and the team doesn't have the money to throw 15 to 20 million into the trade. So chances are they are going to have to take back another contract that some other team doesn't want. If I am the Red Sox I am not trading him Bradley and then having to pay Shields that crazy back loaded deal, given how old Shield is
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 27, 2015 11:40:49 GMT -5
Don't we think the Sox would have tried to sign him if they wanted him at this salary?
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 10, 2015 16:52:21 GMT -5
I’m still intrigued with the idea of trying to swap Sandoval for James Shields, I think there has to be a way to mix and match players, prospects and contracts, that would make a deal like this attractive for both teams.
My thought is as follows:
Red Sox trade Sandoval, Miley and Chavis to Padres for Shields and Melvin Upton.
The money is pretty close, Sandoval and Miley are owed approximately $90 M in guaranteed money on their deals, and Shields and Upton approximately $97 M, Chavis is a good prospect that sweetens the deal but not one of the guys who would cause us a ton of anxiety trading away. Now I don’t think that Shields solves the Red Sox issues, just think he can be part of a better rotation, he is not worth the $$$ left on his contract, but if I’m the Sox I see more value in giving Shields $90 M+ than what I think they will get from Sandoval/Miley.
Why would the Padres do this? They thought Shields would be their ace, and he has pitched like what he really is a good #2 or #3, Shields for Miley is a downgrade, but you will still get an inning eater for a fraction of the cost. Upton was a contract that they had to take in order to get Kimbrel, with Sandoval at 3B, Solarte could move to the outfield, San Diego would have to gamble that Sandoval would be more productive than Upton (I wouldn’t bet the farm on that, but it’s a roll of the dice that seems like it has a good chance of paying off). With the Sox taking on $7 M more in additional salary in this deal, I’m not super thrilled about throwing in Chavis, but I’m thinking the Padres jump at adding a former 1st round pick to start replenishing a depleted farm system.
Why do the Red Sox do this? Shields is an upgrade over Miley, probably not as big as the name value/contracts might indicate, but if Buchholz is slotted as your #2, Shields #3, E-Rod #4, Porcello #5, Kelly to the bullpen, and Owens/Johnson as depth, the rotation looks pretty solid, and if the Sox can add that #1 starter, that rotation on paper has quality and depth. Upton has little value, I do not expect a bounce back from him and he will most likely be a 5th OF/pinch runner, but personally I do not expect a bounce back from Sandoval in a Red Sox uniform either, he just seems like a bad fit (think Carl Crawford) didn’t love it when he signed, and hate it after year 1, no reason to think it’s gonna get better. No Sandoval, would be addition by subtraction IMO, the Sox could play Holt, Shaw and Marrero at 3B, and will have cleared room for Moncada and Devers in the future.
If the deal could be expanded to include Kimbrel, I’d like it even more, I think it’s tough to value closers/relievers in trades, even moreso closers as dominant as Kimbrel, personally I’d include Johnson in a deal for Kimbrel, and possibly swap out Guerra for Chavis but I’d have to think hard on that one.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 10, 2015 17:25:56 GMT -5
I’m still intrigued with the idea of trying to swap Sandoval for James Shields, I think there has to be a way to mix and match players, prospects and contracts, that would make a deal like this attractive for both teams. My thought is as follows: Red Sox trade Sandoval, Miley and Chavis to Padres for Shields and Melvin Upton. The money is pretty close, Sandoval and Miley are owed approximately $90 M in guaranteed money on their deals, and Shields and Upton approximately $97 M, Chavis is a good prospect that sweetens the deal but not one of the guys who would cause us a ton of anxiety trading away. Now I don’t think that Shields solves the Red Sox issues, just think he can be part of a better rotation, he is not worth the $$$ left on his contract, but if I’m the Sox I see more value in giving Shields $90 M+ than what I think they will get from Sandoval/Miley. Why would the Padres do this? They thought Shields would be their ace, and he has pitched like what he really is a good #2 or #3, Shields for Miley is a downgrade, but you will still get an inning eater for a fraction of the cost. Upton was a contract that they had to take in order to get Kimbrel, with Sandoval at 3B, Solarte could move to the outfield, San Diego would have to gamble that Sandoval would be more productive than Upton (I wouldn’t bet the farm on that, but it’s a roll of the dice that seems like it has a good chance of paying off). With the Sox taking on $7 M more in additional salary in this deal, I’m not super thrilled about throwing in Chavis, but I’m thinking the Padres jump at adding a former 1st round pick to start replenishing a depleted farm system. Why do the Red Sox do this? Shields is an upgrade over Miley, probably not as big as the name value/contracts might indicate, but if Buchholz is slotted as your #2, Shields #3, E-Rod #4, Porcello #5, Kelly to the bullpen, and Owens/Johnson as depth, the rotation looks pretty solid, and if the Sox can add that #1 starter, that rotation on paper has quality and depth. Upton has little value, I do not expect a bounce back from him and he will most likely be a 5th OF/pinch runner, but personally I do not expect a bounce back from Sandoval in a Red Sox uniform either, he just seems like a bad fit (think Carl Crawford) didn’t love it when he signed, and hate it after year 1, no reason to think it’s gonna get better. No Sandoval, would be addition by subtraction IMO, the Sox could play Holt, Shaw and Marrero at 3B, and will have cleared room for Moncada and Devers in the future. If the deal could be expanded to include Kimbrel, I’d like it even more, I think it’s tough to value closers/relievers in trades, even moreso closers as dominant as Kimbrel, personally I’d include Johnson in a deal for Kimbrel, and possibly swap out Guerra for Chavis but I’d have to think hard on that one. Given that Miley is younger (28 vs 33) and was better in 2015 (2.6fWAR/2.5bWAR vs 1.1fWAR/1.9bWAR) I don't think we can definitively say that Shields is an upgrade. Given Miley's team-friendly contract, I'd assume he's far more valuable. This seems like a sideways move at best. (although I do like the idea of Upton as the 4th/5th OFer)
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 10, 2015 21:01:04 GMT -5
I wouldn't be so fast to discharge Wade Miley. Lots of teams, including the Red Sox, are looking for innings-eaters. He fits the bill despite his less than impressive w/l record. He saves the bullpen as did Jake Peavey in 2013. He's worth more than the throw-in trade chattel some here would attribute to him.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 10, 2015 23:58:17 GMT -5
I think we match up well for a larger type trade with San Diego. Something along the lines of:
Cashner, quackenbach and Kimbrell for Miley, Owens, kelly, Margot, Johnson and moncada
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 11, 2015 0:26:35 GMT -5
I think we match up well for a larger type trade with San Diego. Something along the lines of: Cashner, quackenbach and Kimbrell for Miley, Owens, kelly, Margot, Johnson and moncada No thanks to that deal. I like Kimbrel, but not enough to surrender Moncada and Margot. And I wouldn't deal Kelly, Owens, and Johnson for Cashner and Quackenbach, so no thanks to both parts of the deal. As good as Kimbrel is, the Sox can find a good closer (they already have one in Uehara) who's not inferior enough to the point where losing long-term assets like Moncada and Margot wouldn't make any sense whatsoever. Cashner isn't that good and Quackenbach is a middle reliever who could be more, but still I wouldn't deal two potential mid rotation starters and one in Kelly who could be more or be really good out of the pen. Just doesn't make sense.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 11, 2015 1:09:35 GMT -5
Yeah, that trade would be horrendous for the Sox. Giving up way too much (Moncada?! *And* Margot?...not to mention Owens and Johnson?!) for eminently mediocre return. Kimbrel is great, but he's on a market-value deal. Cashner and Quackenbush? No thanks. I could see a single quality prospect and a second lottery ticket (Margot/Chavis, although I don't love it) or Margot/Miley for Kimbrel alone. But SD wants to shed salary...the Sox can do WAY better than gut their upper-level farm for a terrific closer and a couple solid MLBers.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 11, 2015 8:30:26 GMT -5
Shields is a bad fit, but him for Sandoval would be a no brainer. I actually think this trade could work, with some tweaks. Shields is owed 3/$65mm after 2015 and Sandoval is owed 4/$77.4mm after 2015. There's a $7.6mm difference this year (or approx. $2.5mm prorated). I would add Benoit to even out the money and throw in JBJ to give SDO some value for Benoit. BOS trades Sandoval and JBJ to SDO for Shields and Benoit Benoit evens out 2015 cash (he has a $1.5mm buyout or an $8mm contract for 2016) and he can be kept or flipped. BTW, I don't really want Shields but just trying to figure out an even trade. Both teams call it a "change of scenery" trade. Holt, Shaw and Marrero take over 3B and 2B for now, and the rotation becomes Shields, Porcello, Miley, Rodriguez and Kelly (assuming Buchholz is out for the rest of the year). Something happen to our current 2B we're not aware of?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 11, 2015 8:58:30 GMT -5
I think we match up well for a larger type trade with San Diego. Something along the lines of: Cashner, quackenbach and Kimbrell for Miley, Owens, kelly, Margot, Johnson and moncada Maybe for Fernandez instead. But only if they include Babe Ruth. There's no way in hell they're giving up 4 starting pitchers/starting pitcher depth in any trade. What team would even want that anyway? What do you do if there's an injury or two?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Nov 11, 2015 11:24:14 GMT -5
I think we match up well for a larger type trade with San Diego. Something along the lines of: Cashner, quackenbach and Kimbrell for Miley, Owens, kelly, Margot, Johnson and moncada Come on. Moncada alone is worth probably 3 times as much as those three Padres.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 11, 2015 12:07:35 GMT -5
I think we match up well for a larger type trade with San Diego. Something along the lines of: Cashner, quackenbach and Kimbrell for Miley, Owens, kelly, Margot, Johnson and moncada ...Preller, is that you?
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 11, 2015 13:57:05 GMT -5
I do like the overall Shields/Upton for Panda/Miley deal though. It just fills what both teams need 3B, 4th OF. Payroll shedding is not there though for SD. I just don't see many teams lining up to take these 2 guys with their current deals, even subsidized. The only thing I don't like is Upton's perceived negative clubhouse presence, though I think they offset with Sheilds' positive effect.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 15, 2015 0:32:33 GMT -5
Yeah, that trade would be horrendous for the Sox. Giving up way too much (Moncada?! *And* Margot?...not to mention Owens and Johnson?!) for eminently mediocre return. Kimbrel is great, but he's on a market-value deal. Cashner and Quackenbush? No thanks. I could see a single quality prospect and a second lottery ticket (Margot/Chavis, although I don't love it) or Margot/Miley for Kimbrel alone. But SD wants to shed salary...the Sox can do WAY better than gut their upper-level farm for a terrific closer and a couple solid MLBers. Well, it looks like we did a scaled down version of the trade with the Padres. I hate to see Allen go, thought Margot was On his way out, so that was no surprise. Bottom one is we are a better team for 2016 now than at year end. Just got to sign price and use moncada as part of a package for a second ace,
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 15, 2015 1:07:26 GMT -5
Yeah, that trade would be horrendous for the Sox. Giving up way too much (Moncada?! *And* Margot?...not to mention Owens and Johnson?!) for eminently mediocre return. Kimbrel is great, but he's on a market-value deal. Cashner and Quackenbush? No thanks. I could see a single quality prospect and a second lottery ticket (Margot/Chavis, although I don't love it) or Margot/Miley for Kimbrel alone. But SD wants to shed salary...the Sox can do WAY better than gut their upper-level farm for a terrific closer and a couple solid MLBers. Well, it looks like we did a scaled down version of the trade with the Padres. I hate to see Allen go, thought Margot was On his way out, so that was no surprise. Bottom one is we are a better team for 2016 now than at year end. Just got to sign price and use moncada as part of a package for a second ace, I just do not understand the willingness to deal Moncada, am I not seeing it right that he is potentially an elite talent? The 2 players I want to trade from our prospects the least are Moncada and Espinoza, the 2 potential superstars, with Devers a close 3rd with potential plus power. I also like Benintendi and Kopech a lot, but would trade them before the other 3. Also, is it unrealistic to think that E. Rodriguez becomes the 2nd ace we need at some point next year? I loved what I saw from him last season, think he has everything he needs, and only lacks a little experience.
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