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Post by bostonbatboy on Jul 12, 2016 12:55:56 GMT -5
I think we could swing a trade like this we have a deep farm so no need to trade our top guys. Of course. everyone wants our best prospects. But trade Henry Owens- Trey Ball- Deven Marrero- Nick Longhi- and throw in Roenis Elias to Padres for Melvin(BJ) Upton & Drew Pomeranz. Drew is having a great year but no one going to give blue chip prospects. Not long enough track record of being great for a longer time
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2016 14:53:20 GMT -5
I think we could swing a trade like this we have a deep farm so no need to trade our top guys. Of course. everyone wants our best prospects. But trade Henry Owens- Trey Ball- Deven Marrero- Nick Longhi- and throw in Roenis Elias to Padres for Melvin(BJ) Upton & Drew Pomeranz. Drew is having a great year but no one going to give blue chip prospects. Not long enough track record of being great for a longer time Owens's value is too low and Pomeranz's currently too high for that to work, but I actually think it's reasonable. Pomeranz is going to bring some better offers though. Ball and Marrero and Elias essentially equate to castoff/scenery change guys like Upton, who nonetheless has some utility despite the awful contract. Pomeranz is making peanuts, though, so he provides a lot of excess value. He's going to bring back some desirable trade pieces, not just a bunch of buy-low guys (even if I hold out hope for Owens).
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2016 15:56:52 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if Pomeranz is what Owens turns into, but Fenway won't be kind to either of them.
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Jul 13, 2016 15:08:27 GMT -5
Anyone can twist stats to their liking, but the fact of the matter is that even with a slightly higher than average walk rate he is giving up hits a a criminally low rate. His fastball velocity is irrelevant, considering he throws his offspeed pitches well over half the time, I believe he trails only Rich Hill for his curveball usage and gets a ton of swings and misses with it. He has also improved his changeup usage and it has been a much more effective pitch for him this year. Personally I feel he is a great fit for the Red Sox considering he can keep the ball on the ground (roughly 48 GB%, ranks him 35th of qualified starters, 8.8% HR/FB, 14th) who can also strike out batters at a high clip. Sure there might be some regression, but even still he has figured out how to pitch and be most effective with his pitches and will still be at worst a solid #3 starter for us for a few years. Which starting pitcher would you rather acquire either at the deadline or this offseason via trade or free agency? More and more teams are locking up their young cost-controlled starters (for good reason) and Pomeranz might be one of the better options available over the near future. He's got a .240 BABIP and an 81% strand rate. That's not holding up even if he stays in the NL West, let alone if he moves to the AL East and pitches half of his games in Fenway. Again I wouldn't be against dealing for him, but I'm not giving up Kopech to do it, which likely means it wouldn't happen. I'd rather go after Rich Hill, because he's a 37 year old rental for whom the asking price will be lower, and he's put up better numbers than Pomeranz, albeit with a strand rate and HR/FB that may well regress. There's a good chance that we already have 4 above average to better starting pitchers for next year already on our roster (Price, Porcello, Wright and Rodriguez) so acquiring someone for the longer run isn't as much of a concern in my mind- you need a bridge guy while E-Rod figures out how not to tip pitches, and next year you throw Owens, Kelly, Elias and Buchholz at a wall and see who sticks. Also it's worth noting that, while I've seen rumors about us scouting Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi, there's nothing out there about us scouting the Padres at all that I've seen, so it seems likely that he's looking for a deal with a lesser prospect cost than someone like Pomeranz would likely command Why can't that hold up when he has a 10.1 K/9 and a 48% GB rate this season? Heck he has a career HR/FB% of 10.7% to go along with a career .271 BABIP....and that's after pitching 16 starts at Coors Field! Like I said before, I would expect a little bit of regression if he comes to Boston, but he would slot in near the top of the rotation through 2018 and give us a high strikeout arm that we desperately need in this rotation. Trading for Hill (I would be fine with) but it doesn't solve anything beyond this season. We NEED a solid mid-rotation arm (or two) for next year and beyond. I like Kopech's potential but there is still risk that he could (god forbid) blow out his arm, or he might never fully develop that 3rd pitch and end up in the bullpen long-term. Like I said before Kopech might not even make an impact in Boston until after Pomeranz contract is up. (Meaning that assuming Kopech's first full season is in 2018 and he struggles mightily at times, like quite a few of the top prospect arms this year have). If we end up signing Jason Groome would that make you more willing to give up someone like Kopech? EDIT: I'll ask again, who are you trading for or signing this offseason to put in the rotation? There are literally zero free agent SP I would want the Red Sox to sign, and if you are unwilling to trade any of our top prospects then we would have to trade for a backend SP, and our playoff rotation still sits as Price/Porcello/Wright...are you ok with that going forward?
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Post by telson13 on Jul 13, 2016 16:57:18 GMT -5
He's got a .240 BABIP and an 81% strand rate. That's not holding up even if he stays in the NL West, let alone if he moves to the AL East and pitches half of his games in Fenway. Again I wouldn't be against dealing for him, but I'm not giving up Kopech to do it, which likely means it wouldn't happen. I'd rather go after Rich Hill, because he's a 37 year old rental for whom the asking price will be lower, and he's put up better numbers than Pomeranz, albeit with a strand rate and HR/FB that may well regress. There's a good chance that we already have 4 above average to better starting pitchers for next year already on our roster (Price, Porcello, Wright and Rodriguez) so acquiring someone for the longer run isn't as much of a concern in my mind- you need a bridge guy while E-Rod figures out how not to tip pitches, and next year you throw Owens, Kelly, Elias and Buchholz at a wall and see who sticks. Also it's worth noting that, while I've seen rumors about us scouting Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi, there's nothing out there about us scouting the Padres at all that I've seen, so it seems likely that he's looking for a deal with a lesser prospect cost than someone like Pomeranz would likely command Why can't that hold up when he has a 10.1 K/9 and a 48% GB rate this season? Heck he has a career HR/FB% of 10.7% to go along with a career .271 BABIP....and that's after pitching 16 starts at Coors Field! Like I said before, I would expect a little bit of regression if he comes to Boston, but he would slot in near the top of the rotation through 2018 and give us a high strikeout arm that we desperately need in this rotation. Trading for Hill (I would be fine with) but it doesn't solve anything beyond this season. We NEED a solid mid-rotation arm (or two) for next year and beyond. I like Kopech's potential but there is still risk that he could (god forbid) blow out his arm, or he might never fully develop that 3rd pitch and end up in the bullpen long-term. Like I said before Kopech might not even make an impact in Boston until after Pomeranz contract is up. (Meaning that assuming Kopech's first full season is in 2018 and he struggles mightily at times, like quite a few of the top prospect arms this year have). If we end up signing Jason Groome would that make you more willing to give up someone like Kopech? EDIT: I'll ask again, who are you trading for or signing this offseason to put in the rotation? There are literally zero free agent SP I would want the Red Sox to sign, and if you are unwilling to trade any of our top prospects then we would have to trade for a backend SP, and our playoff rotation still sits as Price/Porcello/Wright...are you ok with that going forward? 1) The Sox don't *need* that mid-rotation arm. It would be helpful, but they've had outrageously underperforming 4/5s this year. Rodriguez alone is probably more likely to serve as a 4 and pitch like a 2/3 next year than be even close to as bad as he has. So they're looking for a 5, and have a number of internal options. 2) Their 1-2-3 is on pace for 13 WAR. Yes, I'm plenty OK with that going into the playoffs. For reference, the ENTIRE 2013 rotation of Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Doubront-Peavy-Dempster combined for 13 WAR. And that's giving Peavy credit for his time with the White Sox, too. 3) Pomeranz probably has a BABIP/weak contact skill. And it's possible he finishes the year around .240, but that area typically leads baseball. Marco Estrada was around .230 last year and last time I checked, under .200 this year. So both sides have to take the numbers with a grain of salt. He's probably more of a true-talent #2 or 3, having a #1-caliber year. I actually like him, but not for any of the top 5. However, I think dealing for him should come from a position of desire, not "need." If they can get him without a silly overpay, and accept significant regression (2.5-3.5 WAR/year), I'm all for it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 14, 2016 5:49:24 GMT -5
I'd give up Kopech in a deal for Pomerantz. Maybe I'm alone in thinking this. Umm yeah I think I'm going to recant and delete this statement. I almost forgot how good Kopech is. This happens when you screw up for a year straight like he has.
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Post by cto94 on Jul 14, 2016 9:44:53 GMT -5
Why can't that hold up when he has a 10.1 K/9 and a 48% GB rate this season? Heck he has a career HR/FB% of 10.7% to go along with a career .271 BABIP....and that's after pitching 16 starts at Coors Field! Like I said before, I would expect a little bit of regression if he comes to Boston, but he would slot in near the top of the rotation through 2018 and give us a high strikeout arm that we desperately need in this rotation. Trading for Hill (I would be fine with) but it doesn't solve anything beyond this season. We NEED a solid mid-rotation arm (or two) for next year and beyond. I like Kopech's potential but there is still risk that he could (god forbid) blow out his arm, or he might never fully develop that 3rd pitch and end up in the bullpen long-term. Like I said before Kopech might not even make an impact in Boston until after Pomeranz contract is up. (Meaning that assuming Kopech's first full season is in 2018 and he struggles mightily at times, like quite a few of the top prospect arms this year have). If we end up signing Jason Groome would that make you more willing to give up someone like Kopech? EDIT: I'll ask again, who are you trading for or signing this offseason to put in the rotation? There are literally zero free agent SP I would want the Red Sox to sign, and if you are unwilling to trade any of our top prospects then we would have to trade for a backend SP, and our playoff rotation still sits as Price/Porcello/Wright...are you ok with that going forward? Because nobody maintains an 81% strand rate- that's pretty well documented. Sure some of it is attributable to skill, but if you find me starting pitcher with a career strand rate over 80% with more than 500 innings in the big leagues, I'll be shocked. And if you're going to give him credit for pitching in Coors, you also have to concede that pitching in Petco has likely helped him out significantly. There's a risk that any pitcher blows out his arm- I could say the same thing of Pomeranz. That's kind of inherent to pitchers. The difference is that Kopech, being 20, would probably have an easier time coming back from it. I don't agree that we need multiple pitchers going forward- I'd rather have Eduardo Rodriguez going forward than Pomeranz honestly, I don't think there's any good reason to think that he can't fix his pitch-tipping issues, and after that you just need a 5 starter. If this is what Steven Wright actually is, then I'm absolutely OK with that top 3: the only reason not to be would be if you think David Price is going to maintain a 4.50 ERA, which I don't because he's got great peripherals so far this year and seems to have been the victim of some pretty bad luck. I don't know who you target in the offseason; speculating on who might or might not be available is kind of pointless and depends on a bunch of factors. What I do know is that there will likely be several at least serviceable back of the rotation arms available and in all likelihood a softer market, which will demand less of an overpay than acquiring Pomeranz during a career year that looks unsustainable with very few other options on the market. And I would be willing to deal a top prospect or two, including Kopech, if it netted us a real top of the rotation arm. In my mind, Pomeranz is not that guy, because of all the concerns that have already been raised.
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Jul 14, 2016 16:01:26 GMT -5
Why can't that hold up when he has a 10.1 K/9 and a 48% GB rate this season? Heck he has a career HR/FB% of 10.7% to go along with a career .271 BABIP....and that's after pitching 16 starts at Coors Field! Like I said before, I would expect a little bit of regression if he comes to Boston, but he would slot in near the top of the rotation through 2018 and give us a high strikeout arm that we desperately need in this rotation. Trading for Hill (I would be fine with) but it doesn't solve anything beyond this season. We NEED a solid mid-rotation arm (or two) for next year and beyond. I like Kopech's potential but there is still risk that he could (god forbid) blow out his arm, or he might never fully develop that 3rd pitch and end up in the bullpen long-term. Like I said before Kopech might not even make an impact in Boston until after Pomeranz contract is up. (Meaning that assuming Kopech's first full season is in 2018 and he struggles mightily at times, like quite a few of the top prospect arms this year have). If we end up signing Jason Groome would that make you more willing to give up someone like Kopech? EDIT: I'll ask again, who are you trading for or signing this offseason to put in the rotation? There are literally zero free agent SP I would want the Red Sox to sign, and if you are unwilling to trade any of our top prospects then we would have to trade for a backend SP, and our playoff rotation still sits as Price/Porcello/Wright...are you ok with that going forward? Because nobody maintains an 81% strand rate- that's pretty well documented. Sure some of it is attributable to skill, but if you find me starting pitcher with a career strand rate over 80% with more than 500 innings in the big leagues, I'll be shocked. And if you're going to give him credit for pitching in Coors, you also have to concede that pitching in Petco has likely helped him out significantly. There's a risk that any pitcher blows out his arm- I could say the same thing of Pomeranz. That's kind of inherent to pitchers. The difference is that Kopech, being 20, would probably have an easier time coming back from it. I don't agree that we need multiple pitchers going forward- I'd rather have Eduardo Rodriguez going forward than Pomeranz honestly, I don't think there's any good reason to think that he can't fix his pitch-tipping issues, and after that you just need a 5 starter. If this is what Steven Wright actually is, then I'm absolutely OK with that top 3: the only reason not to be would be if you think David Price is going to maintain a 4.50 ERA, which I don't because he's got great peripherals so far this year and seems to have been the victim of some pretty bad luck. I don't know who you target in the offseason; speculating on who might or might not be available is kind of pointless and depends on a bunch of factors. What I do know is that there will likely be several at least serviceable back of the rotation arms available and in all likelihood a softer market, which will demand less of an overpay than acquiring Pomeranz during a career year that looks unsustainable with very few other options on the market. And I would be willing to deal a top prospect or two, including Kopech, if it netted us a real top of the rotation arm. In my mind, Pomeranz is not that guy, because of all the concerns that have already been raised. Sorry but I don't think you do know. Let's assume all pitchers with team options gets resigned (Garcia, G. Gonzalez, Hammel, Holland, Moore, etc...) you are left with: Anderson, Cashner, Chacin, Colon, De La Rosa, Dickey, Fister, Helickson, Hill, Latos, Lewis, Nova, Peavy, Simon, Weaver, Wilson. Any of those names tickle your fancy? Maybe we can sign Dickey and corner the market on knuckleballers?! Sure, Hill is the one name that stands out but another team is most definitely going to outbid the Red Sox considering he will be the top SP target this offseason. Kopech is 1000x more likely to blow out his arm over Pomeranz...name a starting pitcher who throws as hard as Kopech who hasn't had arm issues? I hope it never happens but it's very likely to with the velocity he throws at. We've never even seen him throw a full season, so who knows if he can hold up over the long run, it will take a couple years to build his stamina up to withstand a full season from start to finish. I don't know, maybe I'm he crazy one for wanting to acquire a top of the rotation arm to help us out for the next few years because I'll tell ya what, we are definitely not going to win any World Series with Doug freakin' Fister in the rotation.
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