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Post by gatorgreenwell on Dec 2, 2014 9:58:00 GMT -5
I know we re-signed Koji, but I'm not super confident with him. We still have Mujica, Tazawa, and Workman as well. Looks to me like we could use a lefty. I'm not a big Tommy Layne fan. Are there any decent ones available? (Aside from Miller, whom I'd love to get back at the right price.)
I'm also a big fan of moving RDLR to the pen. With his fastball velocity and developing changeup, I think he'd be effective as a setup man, and if he proves worthy, maybe he takes over as our long term closer.
I don't really want to spend on a guy like Robertson, even though I think he's a good pitcher.
What do you all think?
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 2, 2014 10:19:26 GMT -5
I know we re-signed Koji, but I'm not super confident with him. We still have Mujica, Tazawa, and Workman as well. Looks to me like we could use a lefty. I'm not a big Tommy Layne fan. Are there any decent ones available? (Aside from Miller, whom I'd love to get back at the right price.) I'm also a big fan of moving RDLR to the pen. With his fastball velocity and developing changeup, I think he'd be effective as a setup man, and if he proves worthy, maybe he takes over as our long term closer. I don't really want to spend on a guy like Robertson, even though I think he's a good pitcher. What do you all think? The Red Sox just need Pitchers who can get a Lefty out.
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ianrs
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Posts: 2,414
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Post by ianrs on Dec 2, 2014 10:38:38 GMT -5
I'm with you on acquiring a lefty, but not for anything significant. Reliever trades are typically crapshoots.
I wonder if Drake Britton can be that guy (probably not after last season's rough time in Pawtucket). I think Layne is a lock as a cheap, in-house option to be one of our lefties.
After the spending on bats, I doubt BC spends on Miller. I could see Edwin Escobar as a guy who emerges as a very solid and cheap lefty bullpen arm.
I also forsee either Barnes, RDLR, or Webster converting to the BP.
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Post by sierram363 on Dec 2, 2014 10:39:10 GMT -5
We need to find more Japanese relievers. They seem to be good/great for a few years before they flame out. Good value.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 2, 2014 10:47:08 GMT -5
We need to find more Japanese relievers. They seem to be good/great for a few years before they flame out. Good value. I agree, evaluations should be done off of racial stereotypes. Ideally we should target players from the planet Krypton, assuming they can survive the market in Boston, with their duel personality disorders and all.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2014 11:15:15 GMT -5
I think this is the year we start moving guys like Workman and Ranaudo to the bullpen. We can afford to give Lester a few million more because we don't trade these guys for a different starter and replace them with $3-5 million per season relievers.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 2, 2014 11:27:05 GMT -5
Escobar has been pitching out of the pen in the Venezuelan league. He could be a solution. With Owens, Johnston and Rodriguez as LH SPs on the horizon, this may be a good time to give Edwin a shot.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 2, 2014 11:37:12 GMT -5
Miller may have priced himself out of the Sox budget. I don't know what Robertson is looking for, but I like him a lot, and he probably is worth a big contract. I would do both of them if the money is available. Then the Sox would have a phenomenal BP.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2014 11:52:13 GMT -5
Miller may have priced himself out of the Sox budget. I don't know what Robertson is looking for, but I like him a lot, and he probably is worth a big contract. I would do both of them if the money is available. Then the Sox would have a phenomenal BP. That would end up a likely disaster giving two different relief pitchers 4 years at over $10m per year. Remember Papelbon? He was 30 when he signed with the Phillies. Finding failed starters seems like a much better route. Like we probably already have here in Ranaudo and Workman.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 2, 2014 12:03:07 GMT -5
Papelbon has actually been living up to his contract (so far), although a bullpen of Uehara, Mujica, Miller, and Robertson would have a payroll close to the entire Astro's team did in 2014.
Anyways, I like Workman as kinda an Aceves 2011 type roll. I like the though of the two pitchers we got for Peavy competing for a bullpen roll, along with some of the excess AAA depth.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2014 12:10:21 GMT -5
Papelbon has actually been living up to his contract (so far), although a bullpen of Uehara, Mujica, Miller, and Robertson would have a payroll close to the entire Astro's team did in 2014. Anyways, I like Workman as kinda an Aceves 2011 type roll. I like the though of the two pitchers we got for Peavy competing for a bullpen roll, along with some of the excess AAA depth. Amaro couldn't trade Papelbon if he wanted to at pretty much any point of that contract. He has never been worth it. Also, I'm not sure what the 5th year option is, but since Amaro gave it to him, I'm sure there's some kind of stupidly high buyout involved that will have to be paid and make the total contract bigger.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 2, 2014 12:23:39 GMT -5
Also, I'm not sure what the 5th year option is, but since Amaro gave it to him, I'm sure there's some kind of stupidly high buyout involved that will have to be paid and make the total contract bigger. $13M Vesting Option vests with 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 in 2014-15. He had 52 GF in 2014
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2014 12:26:47 GMT -5
Also, I'm not sure what the 5th year option is, but since Amaro gave it to him, I'm sure there's some kind of stupidly high buyout involved that will have to be paid and make the total contract bigger. $13M Vesting Option vests with 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 in 2014-15. He had 52 GF in 2014 SMH Easy way to fix that...
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Post by gatorgreenwell on Dec 2, 2014 13:57:05 GMT -5
So in our system currently...we have RDLR, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, and Workman that all have looked like fringe rotation guys. (some might pan out - I really think Barnes is the best bet for the rotation for some reason. and RDLR certainly has the stuff) But I don't think their futures are as starters (for the Red Sox anyway..)
I think if RDLR embraced a bullpen role, he could thrive there like Bard did for us a few years ago.
Speaking of Bard - I would just want to make sure that we don't make a similar mistake with these pitchers. It's been happening a lot lately (Bard, Chamberlain) where guys get bounced from SP to RP to SP and back again. It doesn't SEEM like it would be a big deal, but it looks to me like a lot of guys struggle with it.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 2, 2014 14:03:30 GMT -5
Its important to note that we currently have De La Rosa, Webster, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, Wright, Escobar, Owens, E. Rodriguez and Johnson to compete for (probably) 1 major league rotation spot and 5 Pawsox rotation spots. First, lets do some simple math, thats 10 guys for 6 rotation spots. If it were up to me, I'd start the year with De La Rosa in the Boston rotation, and Barnes, Wright, Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson in the Pawsox rotation. I'd likely trade Ranaudo if possible, leaving Webster and Workman to the Boston bullpen and Escobar to work out of the Pawsox bullpen.
The Boston bullpen would look like:
Uehara Tazawa Mujica Workman Webster Layne FA LHP
We can maintain a ton of flexibility as well. That might mean swapping De La Rosa and Webster's roles, or perhaps working Barnes out of the Boston bullpen should either Workman or Webster struggle with their roles, etc... My general point is that I'm probably okay inserting 2 of the aforementioned 10 guys into Boston bullpen roles.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 2, 2014 14:28:44 GMT -5
Miller may have priced himself out of the Sox budget. I don't know what Robertson is looking for, but I like him a lot, and he probably is worth a big contract. I would do both of them if the money is available. Then the Sox would have a phenomenal BP. That would end up a likely disaster giving two different relief pitchers 4 years at over $10m per year. Remember Papelbon? He was 30 when he signed with the Phillies. Finding failed starters seems like a much better route. Like we probably already have here in Ranaudo and Workman. Papelbon remains one of the best closers in baseball. His ERAs in his three years with Philly are lower than the last two he had with Boston and his ERA+ were 166, 129 and 183. His K rate has dropped a little because he has a lost a little of his FB,(still about 1 per inning) but he still is very good. The Phillies have gotten their money's worth. It is not his fault the team sucks. Miller has had very light duty on his arm and he just became good the past two years. I would feel very comfortable giving him four years. Robertson also has just hit his stride. I think the risks with either are lower than average. I am not a big fan of Ranaudo anymore. I don't see him in a key role unless his command improves significantly. Workman is a solid middle innings RP. His stuff is not good enough to close, nor to start.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 2, 2014 14:35:38 GMT -5
So in our system currently...we have RDLR, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, and Workman that all have looked like fringe rotation guys. (some might pan out - I really think Barnes is the best bet for the rotation for some reason. and RDLR certainly has the stuff) But I don't think their futures are as starters (for the Red Sox anyway..) I think if RDLR embraced a bullpen role, he could thrive there like Bard did for us a few years ago. Speaking of Bard - I would just want to make sure that we don't make a similar mistake with these pitchers. It's been happening a lot lately (Bard, Chamberlain) where guys get bounced from SP to RP to SP and back again. It doesn't SEEM like it would be a big deal, but it looks to me like a lot of guys struggle with it. The bouncing back in forth is bad. There is a long tradition of starting young pitchers in the BP and not moving them to the starting rotation for a while, maybe a year, or even two. The Orioles under Earl Weaver did this routinely with great success. I have no idea what happened to Bard, but if you look at his stats, it appears it started at the end of the time he was a RP. Becoming a starter may not have been the problem. His FB declined by about 8 MPH and he lost both his control and his command. He never got anything back, so far as I know. I've always thought Chamberlain was over-rated, but the Yankees did make things worse with him. BTW, Samardzija started out as a RP for the White Sox. His first full season, 2011, he appeared in 75 games in relief with no starts. His ERA was 2.97. He didn't get back to that until this year.
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Post by gatorgreenwell on Dec 2, 2014 15:20:05 GMT -5
So in our system currently...we have RDLR, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, and Workman that all have looked like fringe rotation guys. (some might pan out - I really think Barnes is the best bet for the rotation for some reason. and RDLR certainly has the stuff) But I don't think their futures are as starters (for the Red Sox anyway..) I think if RDLR embraced a bullpen role, he could thrive there like Bard did for us a few years ago. Speaking of Bard - I would just want to make sure that we don't make a similar mistake with these pitchers. It's been happening a lot lately (Bard, Chamberlain) where guys get bounced from SP to RP to SP and back again. It doesn't SEEM like it would be a big deal, but it looks to me like a lot of guys struggle with it. The bouncing back in forth is bad. There is a long tradition of starting young pitchers in the BP and not moving them to the starting rotation for a while, maybe a year, or even two. The Orioles under Earl Weaver did this routinely with great success. I have no idea what happened to Bard, but if you look at his stats, it appears it started at the end of the time he was a RP. Becoming a starter may not have been the problem. His FB declined by about 8 MPH and he lost both his control and his command. He never got anything back, so far as I know. I've always thought Chamberlain was over-rated, but the Yankees did make things worse with him. BTW, Samardzija started out as a RP for the White Sox. His first full season, 2011, he appeared in 75 games in relief with no starts. His ERA was 2.97. He didn't get back to that until this year. I don't have a problem starting guys in the pen. I don't mind a spot start here and there either. The problem with Bard and Joba was that every year their role changed. It wasn't like, we are putting you in the pen, so you can eventually become a SP. It was you're good in the pen and might be our closer of the future. Oh wait, we need a SP. Lets try you out there! Oops you're not great as a SP, we'll move you back.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 2, 2014 15:51:02 GMT -5
Actually the Sox did not bounce Bard around. He was a starter his first season in the minors and then became a reliever in 2008. He was converted back to a starter in 2011 and he failed at that, and at everything else afterwards.
I don't think you can blame his problem on the switch. Something else happened and when Texas gave him a brief tryout this season in Class A ball he gave up 13 runs in 2/3 of an inning, with nine walks.
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Post by sierram363 on Dec 2, 2014 16:06:55 GMT -5
We need to find more Japanese relievers. They seem to be good/great for a few years before they flame out. Good value. I agree, evaluations should be done off of racial stereotypes. Ideally we should target players from the planet Krypton, assuming they can survive the market in Boston, with their duel personality disorders and all. I think we've done pretty well grabbing Japanese relievers (Okajima, Tazawa, Koji). All were cheap and effective for us. I wouldn't mind going back into that well again if we could.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 2, 2014 16:21:14 GMT -5
I agree, evaluations should be done off of racial stereotypes. Ideally we should target players from the planet Krypton, assuming they can survive the market in Boston, with their duel personality disorders and all. I think we've done pretty well grabbing Japanese relievers (Okajima, Tazawa, Koji). All were cheap and effective for us. I wouldn't mind going back into that well again if we could. You are not saying anything of substance here. You want to sign a relief pitcher based on where he was born instead of his merits. The two Japanese relief free agents available are Kyuji Fujikawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka. I'm assuming we should sign the one who is more Japanese.
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Post by sierram363 on Dec 2, 2014 16:30:25 GMT -5
I think we've done pretty well grabbing Japanese relievers (Okajima, Tazawa, Koji). All were cheap and effective for us. I wouldn't mind going back into that well again if we could. You are not saying anything of substance here. You want to sign a relief pitcher based on where he was born instead of his merits. The two Japanese relief free agents available are Kyuji Fujikawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka. I'm assuming we should sign the one who is more Japanese. I'm not saying I'd be a good judge of talent. I just like the ability of Red Sox brass to pick out best JP relievers. I didn't really know anything about Tazawa and Okajima before they came in. Were they anyhting special in Japan? I can't remember the last time they picked out a bad JP reliever.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,414
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Post by ianrs on Dec 2, 2014 16:40:14 GMT -5
Its important to note that we currently have De La Rosa, Webster, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, Wright, Escobar, Owens, E. Rodriguez and Johnson to compete for (probably) 1 major league rotation spot and 5 Pawsox rotation spots. First, lets do some simple math, thats 10 guys for 6 rotation spots. If it were up to me, I'd start the year with De La Rosa in the Boston rotation, and Barnes, Wright, Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson in the Pawsox rotation. I'd likely trade Ranaudo if possible, leaving Webster and Workman to the Boston bullpen and Escobar to work out of the Pawsox bullpen. The Boston bullpen would look like: Uehara Tazawa Mujica Workman Webster Layne FA LHP We can maintain a ton of flexibility as well. That might mean swapping De La Rosa and Webster's roles, or perhaps working Barnes out of the Boston bullpen should either Workman or Webster struggle with their roles, etc... My general point is that I'm probably okay inserting 2 of the aforementioned 10 guys into Boston bullpen roles. Any reason why Escobar couldn't fill the FA LHP role?
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 2, 2014 16:46:57 GMT -5
You are not saying anything of substance here. You want to sign a relief pitcher based on where he was born instead of his merits. The two Japanese relief free agents available are Kyuji Fujikawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka. I'm assuming we should sign the one who is more Japanese. I'm not saying I'd be a good judge of talent. I just like the ability of Red Sox brass to pick out best JP relievers. I didn't really know anything about Tazawa and Okajima before they came in. Were they anyhting special in Japan? I can't remember the last time they picked out a bad JP reliever. This guy last year? hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/30/red-sox-cut-ties-with-shunsuke-watanabe/I'm not going to validate this line of thinking any more, this will be my last post on the subject.
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Post by sierram363 on Dec 2, 2014 16:51:43 GMT -5
I'm not saying I'd be a good judge of talent. I just like the ability of Red Sox brass to pick out best JP relievers. I didn't really know anything about Tazawa and Okajima before they came in. Were they anyhting special in Japan? I can't remember the last time they picked out a bad JP reliever. This guy last year? hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/30/red-sox-cut-ties-with-shunsuke-watanabe/I'm not going to validate this line of thinking any more, this will be my last post on the subject. I don't count that as the same as Okajima, Tazawa, Saito, and Koji. The others were paid more and expected to contribute to the MLB team. Watanabe was a minor league invite.
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