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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 2, 2014 17:18:08 GMT -5
Its important to note that we currently have De La Rosa, Webster, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, Wright, Escobar, Owens, E. Rodriguez and Johnson to compete for (probably) 1 major league rotation spot and 5 Pawsox rotation spots. First, lets do some simple math, thats 10 guys for 6 rotation spots. If it were up to me, I'd start the year with De La Rosa in the Boston rotation, and Barnes, Wright, Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson in the Pawsox rotation. I'd likely trade Ranaudo if possible, leaving Webster and Workman to the Boston bullpen and Escobar to work out of the Pawsox bullpen. The Boston bullpen would look like: Uehara Tazawa Mujica Workman Webster Layne FA LHP We can maintain a ton of flexibility as well. That might mean swapping De La Rosa and Webster's roles, or perhaps working Barnes out of the Boston bullpen should either Workman or Webster struggle with their roles, etc... My general point is that I'm probably okay inserting 2 of the aforementioned 10 guys into Boston bullpen roles. Any reason why Escobar couldn't fill the FA LHP role? Batters had a .721 OPS against Escobar with runners on base, and a .907 OPS against him with the bases empty. As we know, his splits are huge too, with righties OPS'ing .960 against him versus .475 for LHH. I think he can serve as Boston's LOOGY next season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 2, 2014 17:28:03 GMT -5
Any reason why Escobar couldn't fill the FA LHP role? Batters had a .721 OPS against Escobar with runners on base, and a .907 OPS against him with the bases empty. As we know, his splits are huge too, with righties OPS'ing .960 against him versus .475 for LHH. I think he can serve as Boston's LOOGY next season. Given that he's only going to be 23 (i.e., about 2 years younger than Ranaudo/Webster/Barnes), I'd give him more time in the rotation first, personally.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 2, 2014 18:52:22 GMT -5
Batters had a .721 OPS against Escobar with runners on base, and a .907 OPS against him with the bases empty. As we know, his splits are huge too, with righties OPS'ing .960 against him versus .475 for LHH. I think he can serve as Boston's LOOGY next season. Given that he's only going to be 23 (i.e., about 2 years younger than Ranaudo/Webster/Barnes), I'd give him more time in the rotation first, personally. I suppose - the Sox like to keep them as starters as long as possible usually. But to what end in this case? Is he ever going to pass Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson, Barnes on the SP depth chart? Well, maybe Owens. But at some point, you may need to use him some role - unless you think building value and trading him makes the most sense? But is he really worth that much?
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2014 19:37:33 GMT -5
As recently as last year, Escobar was a BA top 100 prospect, and while he had a bad season, I do think he's become a little underrated around these parts. I'd put him in the same tier as Ranaudo in terms of long-term starter potential (caveat: I'm down on Ranaudo), and he'll be just 23 next year. Yes, there are guys ahead of him, but I generally hate the idea of making moves that hurt a player's value/development based almost solely on depth chart considerations. Depth charts can change pretty quickly (see: the idea that the Red Sox desperately needed outfielders circa June 2014), and a number of the guys ahead of him will be traded and/or converted to the MLB bullpen by the time Spring Training wraps up.
As such, while having Escobar be the MLB bullpen lefty should certainly be a consideration, I'd prefer that they add someone externally and keep him a starter as long as reasonably practicable. If he ever improves his changeup or his command, he could absolutely be a mid-rotation starter, whether in Boston or elsewhere.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,414
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Post by ianrs on Dec 2, 2014 20:39:06 GMT -5
...and he'll be just 23 next year. Oh wow, for some reason, I was under the impression that he was 25 or 26. Must have been conflating his age with Hembree's. In that case, I would agree that its too early to convert him to the BP. Much more on board with moving Ranaudo/Workman to the BP, though that would leave us with only one lefty in Layne. I balk at the idea of trading for relief, but maybe we could get someone like Tom Gorzellany for a few mill over a couple of years based on Zach Duke's 15 mill/3 year pact with the White Sox.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 2, 2014 20:42:50 GMT -5
One thing that stinks with Escobar is that the Giants added him to the 40-man back in 2012 when he'd only just completed the SAL. So he's in his last option year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 2, 2014 20:51:58 GMT -5
Miller may have priced himself out of the Sox budget. I don't know what Robertson is looking for, but I like him a lot, and he probably is worth a big contract. I would do both of them if the money is available. Then the Sox would have a phenomenal BP. That would end up a likely disaster giving two different relief pitchers 4 years at over $10m per year. Remember Papelbon? He was 30 when he signed with the Phillies. Finding failed starters seems like a much better route. Like we probably already have here in Ranaudo and Workman. Papelbon is a poor exams because he had a shoulder issue that the Red Sox did a great job of working with to keep him healthy. He'd already shown some decline before he left. They had no intention of bringing him back.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 2, 2014 21:10:41 GMT -5
One thing that stinks with Escobar is that the Giants added him to the 40-man back in 2012 when he'd only just completed the SAL. So he's in his last option year. Good point. He's a nice bet to be included an a deal as a swing man over the winter because of that, or as the last piece in some deal. I don't see him being DFA'd because he's on his last option since he's a lefty, unlike Wilson.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 2, 2014 21:19:46 GMT -5
One thing that stinks with Escobar is that the Giants added him to the 40-man back in 2012 when he'd only just completed the SAL. So he's in his last option year. And for this reason, I could see them pulling the trigger on moving him to the bullpen if it hasn't clicked by midseason or so. I just wouldn't move him to the bullpen during spring training or anything.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 2, 2014 22:51:09 GMT -5
Alexi Ogando is a free agent as the Rangers have non-tendered him. He was a very good weapon prior to last year when he was pretty bad until being shut down with elbow trouble. I read that he was cleared to pitch in the DWL but he declined.
I don't know how he fits and there are obvious health concerns but that's another option out there, risk-reward kind of thing.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 2, 2014 22:58:55 GMT -5
Alexi Ogando is a free agent as the Rangers have non-tendered him. He was a very good weapon prior to last year when he was pretty bad until being shut down with elbow trouble. I read that he was cleared to pitch in the DWL but he declined. I don't know how he fits and there are obvious health concerns but that's another option out there, risk-reward kind of thing. Ogando is a guy I've liked for a long time, but he kind of seemed to get caught in that everything-went-wrong vortex for the Rangers last year. I've always thought he deserved an unobstructed chance as a starter. I don't think the Red Sox are the right spot for him but he's a smart pickup for someone. With the injury issues I could see the Rangers still trying to work something out on a two-year incentive-filled deal.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 2, 2014 23:08:32 GMT -5
Apparently he prefers to start too so yeah most probably not the best fit. Would not be surprise if he ends up with someone like the Pirates.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 3, 2014 0:04:44 GMT -5
Apparently he prefers to start too so yeah most probably not the best fit. Would not be surprise if he ends up with someone like the Pirates. He only put off the TJ waiting to happen injury it seems, or is all I could find through all the injury reports, though Dr Andrews was the one who (or one of them) gave him the opinion. Many of the times starters continue throwing with a partially torn labrum, it's not all that long before they wind up going under the knife anyway. It's what baffled me last season the NYY didn't go ahead and let Tanaka have the surgery done. He would have been on track to begin throwing shortly after ST. Not trying to instigate anything, but by possibly delaying something more risky. Say he goes down shortly after ST. He's now lost most of 2015 plus half of 2014. Never understood the platelet theory and rest for SP who (it seems) have more wear and tear in theory. Other than that.. I was interested in Ogando as well as a possible setup guy for the Sox.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 3, 2014 9:03:19 GMT -5
Apparently he prefers to start too so yeah most probably not the best fit. Would not be surprise if he ends up with someone like the Pirates. So does Tazawa, but if we are going to sing the praises of japanese pitchers, let's mention that they will accept their role whatever it is.
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Post by gatorgreenwell on Dec 4, 2014 11:31:42 GMT -5
Looking like the Yankees have the inside track on Andrew Miller. If they decide to go and re-sign Robertson, that'd make their bullpen absolutely filthy. It makes the game so much shorter when your starters only need to go 5-6 innings.
If the Sox have a young rotation again, having a good bullpen would be an amazing asset to have. I think we'd be in trouble if we don't make any more moves in the BP. I just don't trust Koji. He's 40 and became ineffective at the end of the year. I hope I'm wrong and that he returns to form. I'm just not counting on it.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 4, 2014 11:46:47 GMT -5
Looking like the Yankees have the inside track on Andrew Miller. If they decide to go and re-sign Robertson, that'd make their bullpen absolutely filthy. It makes the game so much shorter when your starters only need to go 5-6 innings. If the Sox have a young rotation again, having a good bullpen would be an amazing asset to have. I think we'd be in trouble if we don't make any more moves in the BP. I just don't trust Koji. He's 40 and became ineffective at the end of the year. I hope I'm wrong and that he returns to form. I'm just not counting on it. I could not agree more which is why I would outspend the Yanks on Miller. Miller, Betances and Robertson have incredible strikeout rates as well as low ERAs. All are young....and unless injury takes a toll, could be pitching for the Yankees for another 5-10 years. As you point out, our best guy is already 40 and has to be winding down. We would be so overmatched in the pen. I think signing Miller would be a masterful stroke for the Yankees. ..where they might get more from him at 35-45M than they got from half a billion in spending last year. They might again have a 240 million dollar payroll but hey that is only another 25 million in tax...cost of doing championship business for them. Maybe we wait a year, let our youngsters develop and sign Cueto & Samardzija in 2015 free agency.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2014 21:51:47 GMT -5
There are maybe only a half-dozen elite relievers over 30 who are even as close to as good today as they were four years ago. Even the best relievers in the league drop off a cliff regularly, especially as they enter their 30s and start to lose velo.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2014 6:18:58 GMT -5
Its important to note that we currently have De La Rosa, Webster, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, Wright, Escobar, Owens, E. Rodriguez and Johnson to compete for (probably) 1 major league rotation spot and 5 Pawsox rotation spots. First, lets do some simple math, thats 10 guys for 6 rotation spots. If it were up to me, I'd start the year with De La Rosa in the Boston rotation, and Barnes, Wright, Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson in the Pawsox rotation. I'd likely trade Ranaudo if possible, leaving Webster and Workman to the Boston bullpen and Escobar to work out of the Pawsox bullpen. The Boston bullpen would look like: Uehara Tazawa Mujica Workman Webster Layne FA LHP We can maintain a ton of flexibility as well. That might mean swapping De La Rosa and Webster's roles, or perhaps working Barnes out of the Boston bullpen should either Workman or Webster struggle with their roles, etc... My general point is that I'm probably okay inserting 2 of the aforementioned 10 guys into Boston bullpen roles. I'm onboard with all of that, except that Wright and Webster should be swapped. Wright's been consistently good now for a season and a half; Webster for three or four starts. Wright is pretty much a finished product, where the only question is his ability to keep throwing good knucklers as he has been; Webster is still learning how to keep good mechanics for multiple starts in a row. And should we end up with a glut of legitimate starters, Webster's going to have much more trade value relative to actual value than Wright. So it makes sense to continue to develop Webster as a starter for at least another half-season. If by July he's still been too inconsistent to project as more than a #5 starter for a bad team, then by all means see how good he can be out of the pen. But it's too soon to make that transition, when all the evidence says that Wright would be as good or better as the last man in the pen, and would benefit not at all from more AAA experience.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 5, 2014 8:51:51 GMT -5
I'm not so sure I want a knuckleball pitcher in the bullpen. Wakefield did it a bit with mixed results but he was one of the best all-time.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 5, 2014 9:26:08 GMT -5
In the '50s and '60s managers thought knuckleball pitchers were best suited for the bullpen. Hoyt Wilhelm got into the Hall that way. Personally I think it's a great change of pace.
EDIT: I'll leave the relative merits of Webster vs. Wright to others. I just think in a general sense having a knuckleballer in the 'pen is fine.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2014 11:59:48 GMT -5
In the '50s and '60s managers thought knuckleball pitchers were best suited for the bullpen. Hoyt Wilhelm got into the Hall that way. Personally I think it's a great change of pace. EDIT: I'll leave the relative merits of Webster vs. Wright to others. I just think in a general sense having a knuckleballer in the 'pen is fine. Especially without needing a Doug Mirabelli just for him.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 9, 2014 10:55:04 GMT -5
I don't want a knuckleball pitcher coming onto the game with men on base. I don't care if he comes in to start an inning. I think having a catcher who can handle a knuckleball pitcher should be a big concern to a team. I think Wright should start and De La Rosa should be in the pen where I think he is better suited.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 9, 2014 12:25:02 GMT -5
I wonder if Steven Wright ever does enough to warrant the amount of discussion and love he's been given.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 9, 2014 13:03:23 GMT -5
I wonder if Steven Wright ever does enough to warrant the amount of discussion and love he's been given. Most prospects never do.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 9, 2014 13:58:34 GMT -5
He's not a prospect. He's 30
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