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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 22, 2014 2:55:16 GMT -5
I think the other way around, I think Johnson is the most major league ready now starter we have. inclusive of Workman. He's not on the 40 man though. In reality, I like Escobar ( but didn't until his last few outings ) but he's only the 4th best lefty starter at Pawtucket.
Johnson has 4 pitches and I think he'll throw harder this year because last year was his stretch out year. Mission accomplished there..
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Post by wskeleton76 on Dec 22, 2014 3:14:08 GMT -5
While I agree that Johnson is the most ready because of his strong command and pitchability, I doubt he has stuff to be a starter. His 90 mph fastball with little life, deception or angle will be very hittable at the big league level. His curve is above average and changeup is average. Maybe he could be No 5. I prefer a good lefty setup guy to No 5 starter. Also we have three pitching prospects with potential to be a starter such as Owens, Rodriguez, and Barnes.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 22, 2014 3:34:14 GMT -5
I think the plus or plus-plus command is the equalizer. I also think he'll throw harder this coming season, he periodically would dial up 94-95 a couple of times a game. When he took the step up from A to AA and AA to AAA there was no declination of results. He's also remarkably consistent, in 22 of his 23 starts across the board, including the playoffs, he allowed two or less runs (earned or unearned). I really think he's the classic command and control pitcher with better stuff than most, a super Ian Kennedy if you will and built like a total innings horse.
In Carson Blair's words 'It's like video baseball, you put the glove down, he hits it.'
ADD: His slider is really only a show-me quality pitch but, he throws it for strikes which is exactly what you'd want from a show-me.
ADD2: I hate to use this and usually don't but I think there's valid reason for his being ranked 6th, one ahead of Barnes and considerably ahead of Escobar, the original premise that Escobar is the 4th best lefty starter at Pawtucket.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 22, 2014 3:56:13 GMT -5
While I agree that Johnson is the most ready because of his strong command and pitchability, I doubt he has stuff to be a starter. His 90 mph fastball with little life, deception or angle will be very hittable at the big league level. His curve is above average and changeup is average. Maybe he could be No 5. I prefer a good lefty setup guy to No 5 starter. Also we have three pitching prospects with potential to be a starter such as Owens, Rodriguez, and Barnes. Johnson needs to be a starter. He has crafty lefthander written all over him. I would let him start until he shows that he can't. Now Barnes is the guy I want in the pen. With his great fastball he could be a real weapon in the pen. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 22, 2014 4:02:48 GMT -5
"I always say I'd rather see 92, 93, 91 to the glove than 105 everywhere else."—Juan Nieves
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 22, 2014 4:22:53 GMT -5
While I agree that Johnson is the most ready because of his strong command and pitchability, I doubt he has stuff to be a starter. His 90 mph fastball with little life, deception or angle will be very hittable at the big league level. His curve is above average and changeup is average. Maybe he could be No 5. I prefer a good lefty setup guy to No 5 starter. Also we have three pitching prospects with potential to be a starter such as Owens, Rodriguez, and Barnes. Mark Buehrle throws 84 with movement nearly two standard deviations below average (6.2" versus 9.2" +/- 1.8"). According to your logic, he should be pitching A ball. This is a similar logical error to the one behind the notion that Vazquez doesn't hit well enough to be a good (or even a regular) catcher. Location is the one prerequisite for effective pitching, which is to say, there is a minimum level you need to have in order to pitch in MLB. Stuff (that is, velocity and movement) contributes to effectiveness, but there's no practical minimum level that you need to reach in order to start in MLB, just like there's no minimum level of offense you have to reach if your defense is good enough. You can compensate for well-below average stuff with extraordinary command. And, BTW, there's no knowing how much movement Johnson has on his FB until we get pitch/fx data. |
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 22, 2014 8:30:41 GMT -5
I don't know where the legend that Brian Johnson is some soft-tossing junkballer got started, but let's stop with it. He sits 91-92 with some downward sink and good location, and dials up 95 to 96. Also, the idea that he's some finished product is crazy too - probably because he was scoffed at as the "safe pick" taken for his polish out of Florida. The Red Sox thought at the time of the 2012 draft that Johnson's stuff would develop quickly once he focused on pitching (he was a two-way player in college), and from reports we've gotten that's exactly what's happening both in results and stuff.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 22, 2014 9:07:50 GMT -5
I don't know where the legend that Brian Johnson is some soft-tossing junkballer got started, but let's stop with it. He sits 91-92 with some downward sink and good location, and dials up 95 to 96. Also, the idea that he's some finished product is crazy too - probably because he was scoffed at as the "safe pick" taken for his polish out of Florida. The Red Sox thought at the time of the 2012 draft that Johnson's stuff would develop quickly once he focused on pitching (he was a two-way player in college), and from reports we've gotten that's exactly what's happening both in results and stuff. This is good to know because I have been of the impression that he was Buehrle 2.0. I have never seen him pitch but so many people here have commented on his lack of velocity that it was accepted. Has anyone on here actually witness this guy in the flesh...and throwing as you note? |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 22, 2014 9:40:37 GMT -5
I was looking to see what kind of shut-down LH set-up guy they might add via trade. They're not common. In fact, there were really only four such guys last year, and two of them, Andrew Miller and Zach Duke, just signed as free agents. That leaves Tony Watson of the Pirates, who has three years left before hitting free agency, and Jeremy Affeldt, who has one more year at $5M but will be 36 and coming off an unusually good season. Four more theoretical possibilities are closers: Aroldis Chapman, who is two years away, Jake McGee, who is three years out, Zach Britton, four years out, and Sean Doolittle, who is signed for four more years plus two option years. None is likely to be worth their acquisition price. If they're acquiring a LHR, then, it's much more likely to be a complementary piece a la Breslow 2013 rather than a guy you'd feel comfortable sharing the 8th and 7th innings with Tazawa. There's a whole second tier of guys who, like Breslow in 2013, outperformed their xFIP, like the A's Fernando Abad, and maybe one of those guys has a real BABIP and/or HR/FB skill (although that's really hard to tell in the SS of relievers). Don't overlook Diekman of the Phils. 8th inning experience, hits 98-100 from the left side and the Phils pen is deep. I don't know where the legend that Brian Johnson is some soft-tossing junkballer got started, but let's stop with it. He sits 91-92 with some downward sink and good location, and dials up 95 to 96. Also, the idea that he's some finished product is crazy too - probably because he was scoffed at as the "safe pick" taken for his polish out of Florida. The Red Sox thought at the time of the 2012 draft that Johnson's stuff would develop quickly once he focused on pitching (he was a two-way player in college), and from reports we've gotten that's exactly what's happening both in results and stuff. My statement and the general statements was most major league ready of the Pawtucket group not 'finished product'. Big difference. |
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 22, 2014 14:31:27 GMT -5
I don't know where the legend that Brian Johnson is some soft-tossing junkballer got started That's easy. He's a left-hander with great control, therefore he is like Buehrle, therefore he is soft-tossing. Makes perfect sense... to a certain kind of person who is in love with the concept of "comps". |
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Dec 22, 2014 20:25:49 GMT -5
I don't know where the legend that Brian Johnson is some soft-tossing junkballer got started, but let's stop with it. He sits 91-92 with some downward sink and good location, and dials up 95 to 96. Also, the idea that he's some finished product is crazy too - probably because he was scoffed at as the "safe pick" taken for his polish out of Florida. The Red Sox thought at the time of the 2012 draft that Johnson's stuff would develop quickly once he focused on pitching (he was a two-way player in college), and from reports we've gotten that's exactly what's happening both in results and stuff. This is good to know because I have been of the impression that he was Buehrle 2.0. I have never seen him pitch but so many people here have commented on his lack of velocity that it was accepted. Has anyone on here actually witness this guy in the flesh...and throwing as you note? When I saw him he was 88-92 mph. This was his first year after the draft. I also saw him as a junior in college. He was 86-91 mph. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 22, 2014 21:05:04 GMT -5
I was looking to see what kind of shut-down LH set-up guy they might add via trade. They're not common. Don't overlook Diekman of the Phils. 8th inning experience, hits 98-100 from the left side and the Phils pen is deep. I overlooked him because bWAR had him as below replacement level last year. Career: 74 FIP- 81 xFIP- 93 ERA- -0.95 WPA, which would be some number worse than 100. 0.2 bWAR in 150 relief outings, which is barely above replacement level ... And why is this? 26.8% LD% (24.6, 29.0, 26.3 in his 3 seasons) .341 BABIP (.333, .311, .363) He's also been much worse with RISP than with the bases empty, and much better in low leverage than otherwise. I would never gamble that he's going to suddenly start pitching to his peripherals rather than his generally below-average results. |
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 22, 2014 21:05:58 GMT -5
This is good to know because I have been of the impression that he was Buehrle 2.0. I have never seen him pitch but so many people here have commented on his lack of velocity that it was accepted. Has anyone on here actually witness this guy in the flesh...and throwing as you note? When I saw him he was 88-92 mph. This was his first year after the draft. I also saw him as a junior in college. He was 86-91 mph. I note that the Soxprospects scouting report has Johnson sitting 89-91 which dovetails with your direct observations. It also says that he can dial it up to 95 when needed. That is a fairly wide range. I guess that we will have to see what unfolds if he ends up with us. I believe any association with Buehrle was in reference to not throwing particularly hard (Buehrle used to be faster than 84), his physique and his ability to throw strikes with a variety of pitches. On that basis I could see some comparison. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 22, 2014 21:33:26 GMT -5
Don't overlook Diekman of the Phils. 8th inning experience, hits 98-100 from the left side and the Phils pen is deep. I overlooked him because bWAR had him as below replacement level last year. Career: 74 FIP- 81 xFIP- 93 ERA- -0.95 WPA, which would be some number worse than 100. 0.2 bWAR in 150 relief outings, which is barely above replacement level ... And why is this? 26.8% LD% (24.6, 29.0, 26.3 in his 3 seasons) .341 BABIP (.333, .311, .363) He's also been much worse with RISP than with the bases empty, and much better in low leverage than otherwise. I would never gamble that he's going to suddenly start pitching to his peripherals rather than his generally below-average results. This past year he was considerably better than his first two and generated 1.1 WAR and Steamer projects him at .5 WAR, higher than any Sox other than Koji and Tazawa and he's a better bet than either Britton or Layne from the left side. They were also hot down the stretch:
“It's unbelievable,” he [Bryce Harper] said of the Phillies’ bullpen. “You've got Diekman, who's 98 to 100 (mph) from the left side. You've got Giles, who is 100 also from the right side with a dirty slider. And then you've got Pappy, who has been out there for a long time. He's a guy that has closed games for a long time and knows how to pitch. That's fairly tough. When you have a guy that comes in the fifth inning like (Justin) De Fratus throwing 98 mph, you don't see that. It's pretty crazy to see.”
If the topic is upgrading Britton or Layne, I can't see how that isn't an upgrade. (Actually Britton because of the option situation). |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 22, 2014 23:11:36 GMT -5
When I saw him he was 88-92 mph. This was his first year after the draft. I also saw him as a junior in college. He was 86-91 mph. I note that the Soxprospects scouting report has Johnson sitting 89-91 which dovetails with your direct observations. It also says that he can dial it up to 95 when needed. That is a fairly wide range. I guess that we will have to see what unfolds if he ends up with us. I believe any association with Buehrle was in reference to not throwing particularly hard (Buehrle used to be faster than 84), his physique and his ability to throw strikes with a variety of pitches. On that basis I could see some comparison. For what it's worth "dial it up to 95 when he needs to" happens only a few times a game. It's not like he pumps a couple in there at 92 and then strikes everyone out with 95. He'll go get 95 a couple times in his last inning or something. |
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Post by larrycook on Dec 23, 2014 0:17:39 GMT -5
Going back to If Johnson is a starter or not , So what is more challenging for hitters, given two pitchers who throw at the same speed, a pitcher that can hit his spots or pitchers with late movement on what they throw?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 23, 2014 0:25:58 GMT -5
Going back to If Johnson is a starter or not , So what is more challenging for hitters, given two pitchers who throw at the same speed, a pitcher that can hit his spots or pitchers with late movement on what they throw? A pitcher with late movement that hits his spots. They aren't mutually exclusive. Not only does Johnson have excellent command numbers but he also generates a lot of ground balls and yields very few HRs. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 26, 2014 11:50:20 GMT -5
I'm still waiting to add to this bullpen. I'm more resigned that we aren't getting a great late innings guy unless they get lucky with an under the radar signing. Then only hope is an Allen Craig trade or something... In any event, Casey Jansen is someone I would really like to see them pick up if he's available cheap. Dominated first half then got food poisoning and fell off the cliff. He's old too so maybe he can be had on a no guaranteed contract.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 26, 2014 11:58:27 GMT -5
I wonder if Brock Holt can get them the power arm they are looking for. They would obviously have to put one of their bullpen depth guys (Spruil, Hembree) in the trade to get it to work, because they will need a backup SS. But Holt to the Angels has to happen and the Red Sox will just have to accept that they won't get Mike Trout in return.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 26, 2014 13:17:21 GMT -5
The guy I'm watching this year to help the bullpen is Edwin Escobar. I don't think he has the stuff to get RHH out with enough consistency to be a starter, but I think he has the the ability to excel when transitioned to the bullpen. He is lights out against lefties (.219/.271/.285 | 25% K% 5% BB% MiLB career), but I also think he has the stuff to be more than just a lefty specialist. His BA prospect rating was always inflated because if his splits, but he's still just 22 years old with a year of AAA experience under his belt. I could see him improving his secondary stuff and command enough to get righties out at a good clip. There is also the chance that his velocity ticks up in the shorter outings. My guess is by June he's a better option for the pen than either Layne or Britton.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 26, 2014 13:29:20 GMT -5
The guy I'm watching this year to help the bullpen is Edwin Escobar. I don't think he has the stuff to get RHH out with enough consistency to be a starter, but I think he has the the ability to excel when transitioned to the bullpen. He is lights out against lefties (.219/.271/.285 | 25% K% 5% BB% MiLB career), but I also think he has the stuff to be more than just a lefty specialist. His BA prospect rating was always inflated because if his splits, but he's still just 22 years old with a year of AAA experience under his belt. I could see him improving his secondary stuff and command enough to get righties out at a good clip. There is also the chance that his velocity ticks up in the shorter outings. My guess is by June he's a better option for the pen than either Layne or Britton. Interestingly Escobar was San Fran's second rated prospect by Baseball America in the 2014 Prospects edition. Rodriquez was third-rated for Baltimore....so two highly rated lefty arms. Escobar also had a comparative high rating 60 to 55. |
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 26, 2014 13:40:44 GMT -5
The guy I'm watching this year to help the bullpen is Edwin Escobar. I don't think he has the stuff to get RHH out with enough consistency to be a starter, but I think he has the the ability to excel when transitioned to the bullpen. He is lights out against lefties (.219/.271/.285 | 25% K% 5% BB% MiLB career), but I also think he has the stuff to be more than just a lefty specialist. His BA prospect rating was always inflated because if his splits, but he's still just 22 years old with a year of AAA experience under his belt. I could see him improving his secondary stuff and command enough to get righties out at a good clip. There is also the chance that his velocity ticks up in the shorter outings. My guess is by June he's a better option for the pen than either Layne or Britton. Though I think that your forecast above is the most likely outcome, there is certainly a chance that he can improve against righties enough to be a part of a major league rotation. For that to happen he's going to have to improve his changeup and the only way that happens is reps, and lots of them. I would give him as many innings as I possibly could in AAA to see if that changeup improves and it maybe worth keeping him down a little longer to do that. |
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Post by jmei on Jan 9, 2015 17:15:49 GMT -5
Some under-the-radar-type bullpen names that caught my attention at a cursory glance: - Ronald Belisario: terrible ERA last year (5.56), but pretty good peripherals (3.54 FIP/3.69 xFIP) and has been a pretty solid reliever over his career (career 94 FIP-). Not a big strikeout guy, but gets a ton of ground balls (career 60.4%). He has huge splits (career 3.08 FIP vs. RHH, 4.50 FIP vs. LHH), which means he's probably better suited to be a matchup middle reliever than a true setup guy. Should be cheap (the $3m range), though.
- John Axford: very homer-prone in recent years (1.24 HR/9 over the last three years), which is weird considering his ability to get tons of Ks combined with an above-average ground ball rate (over the same period, 10.52 K/9 and 47.9% GB). ERA estimators think he's been much better than his ERA (3.57 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA compared to a 4.24 ERA over the last three years). There were reports last offseason that he was tipping pitches, though he continued to give up a good number of home runs in 2014 (though less than in prior years; instead, his issue last year was a ballooning walk rate). He does still throw hard (94.4 mph last year), though that's a little down from his peak years. Interesting note: he has neutral-to-reverse splits over his career (career 3.24 FIP vs. LHH, 3.60 FIP versus RHH, though the xFIP splits are 3.39/L and 3.20/R), meaning he'd be a good fit for a Red Sox bullpen lacking a reliable lefty.
- Joba Chamberlain: don't laugh. Blew it in the playoffs but had a pretty good regular season. Gets strikeouts and ground balls, and is still only 29. Another guy with relatively neutral L/R splits.
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Post by redsox1534 on Jan 9, 2015 17:57:49 GMT -5
While I agree that Johnson is the most ready because of his strong command and pitchability, I doubt he has stuff to be a starter. His 90 mph fastball with little life, deception or angle will be very hittable at the big league level. His curve is above average and changeup is average. Maybe he could be No 5. I prefer a good lefty setup guy to No 5 starter. Also we have three pitching prospects with potential to be a starter such as Owens, Rodriguez, and Barnes. You are underselling Johnson trust me. For one his fastball sits more around 92. I have seen him pitch in college a phew times on tv, and phew times in the minors and he always sat 90-93. He nos how to pitch, his curve is real good and change up is good not great but could be and I believe one day it will be. Hes got middle of rotation upside. He really is similar to Mark Buehrle in alot of ways. Buehrle is good athlete like Johnson, and is mentally tuff like BJ. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 13, 2015 12:38:07 GMT -5
Few
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