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Post by blizzards39 on Dec 13, 2014 21:22:19 GMT -5
I'm not exactly an expert with advanced statistics, but there has to be some value in a guy that may not be the greatest pitcher in the league, but that gives you 200 IP at with average stats that shows up somewhere. Like say Miley gave us 200IP at 1.8 WAR, but Rubby could have given us 150 IP at 1.5 WAR. That might suggest that Rubby was the better pitcher but those 50 extra innings pitched are extremely valuable is there anything to account for that? There are some things that sabermetrics just don't tell the story on. One of the big ones is pitchers going deep into games and starting every 5 days. In fact, sometimes this may even hurt a pitchers numbers. But nothing is harder on a bullpen than a DiceKesc 4 2/3IP start every 5 days. It just burns the pen, making all 7 relievers a worse pitcher over the coarse of a season. I'll take Miley and his 7IP 30ish times over the coarse of a season. Miley will not be the issue of this rotation.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 14, 2014 11:03:14 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 14, 2014 11:22:51 GMT -5
Lester doesn't step up his game in the post-season -- he has an arsenal that is unusually effective against elite hitters relative to bad ones. Other #2 starters get their value from shutting down lesser hitters while being not all that tough on the best ones (statistically, you can use #3 and #4 hitters as a proxy for them); Lester is tough on those top hitters for a guy whose overall performance is #2 level. So he is unusually good against elite, i.e, post-season caliber lineups, which have more than two guys who could ht 3 or 4 in an ordinary lineup. Eric, thanks, interesting observation about Lester. Can you elaborate on why he has that unusual effectiveness against elite hitters? Do you mean that his stuff plays up equally as well against middle of the order hitters as lesser hitters, or does it actually narrow the gap between, say, Joey Bats and JP Arencibia? Is it all about the cutter? I remember one guy who pitched about 200 miles southwest of here who also had a pretty good track record with the cutter in playoffs and close and late situations. I have almost no idea what, in general, gives a pitcher this sort of performance profile. It is possible that being in some way unusual in your arsenal helps. Mo's cut fastball (not really the same pitch as a cutter; a cut fastball is thrown as hard as a FB but runs towards the pitcher's glove side rather than the arm side. It's really hard to get that cutting action without losing velocity, hence you have the mere cutter which is almost a baby slider and is thrown slower than a FB) was unique. Few pitchers throw the cutter to both sides of the plate, especially to opposite-handed hitters, and that's Lester's bread and butter. The one time I tried to use pitch/fx data to explain an aspect of pitching, the results were unexpected. Pitchers have different splits for times around the batting order, and the conventional wisdom is that that's related to repertoire size. A guy with four or even five pitches can pitch guys differently the third time through, while a three or two pitch pitcher can't, and so the guy with the limited repertoire gets hit harder. Well, a few years ago I put that split into a spreadsheet along with the entire pitch repertoire, and I couldn't find any relationship at all. IIRC, Justin Masterson, who was ridiculously effective throwing just the FB and slider, had a relatively mild times-through-order split. What creates that split (other than being in good shape, which is definitely a factor), and what creates the splits by opposing hitter quality, remain unknown. We have a better idea what causes hitter's splits by opposing pitcher quality; Jeter fit the profile of guys who hit great pitching unusually well, while Chris Davis fits the profile of guys who did all their damage against inferior pitching and could be handled well by the best pitchers. I'm pretty sure that Sandoval is the former type, which helps explain his post-season success.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 14, 2014 12:23:51 GMT -5
isn't RLDR already relatively close to what Miley is now? If by "close" you mean "there's a 20% chance he's as good as Miley", then yes. Miley has almost 4 times as many major league innings under his belt as RDLR, and with better results. Much more proven, lower variance commodity. I don't understand all the angst. Ruby has had a few chances and shown only glimpses of being a good pitcher. He still has upside but that window will not be open much longer meanwhile in the very least Miley has shown that his basement is much higher than either RDLR or Webster. The Sox have added 3 pitchers that figure to give you about 200 IP/EA (something the team desperately needed with only Buchholz and possibly Kelly as the basis for the starting rotation). All 3 pitchers figure to be middle of the rotation starts but with some growth still possible. When building a team it's always a good idea to put the pawns in place before needing the 'king' of the rotation, which is what the Sox have done. Now the won't be perceived as desperate going for an ace, and if the right deal does not come along this season they they don't have to force it and they can wait a year if needed. The redundancy of 3 top LH'ers in the systems in Owens, Johnson and Rodriguez makes it easier to dangle one of them in a trade. Perhaps the Sox could package Kelly with Owens and a lower minor league player to land an ace. And/or the Sox could include anyone of the guys that are likely to be our bench this year in Craig, Holt, Nava or Victorino. Assuming the team contends this year I see Napoli spending the year with the Sox and leaving as a FA there after and Panda can slide over to first for 2016. If after this season they decide Bogearts defense is not par for the course then Marrero who will have had another year to develop and show that his bat is worthy and Bogearts slides back to 3B. Cecchini down in Pawtucket can show if his glove is up to par at third-base and allows another option as well. If Craig is still with the team in 2016 first base is a realistic possibility for him as well. There is still alot of directions the infield can go and it's nice to see we still have the depth to go in almost any direction. Should Buchholz be effective this year and the team is out of contention I can see the team looking to move him. Another long-shot would be moving Pedroia if he proves he's healthy and put Betts back to his natural position. In the right scenario both players could still bring back solid value and cover what's likely to be only a hole or two for the team to cover. They are doing what I did not think they could in rebuilding in one year while still keeping most prospects which keeps more doors open down the road. That all said I would not be surprised if the make a big trade with one of our top prospects involved to land an ace. Who should they target? Cueto? Hamels?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 14, 2014 12:31:50 GMT -5
This from Fangraphs: April 10, 2013 "Wade Miley is one of those pitchers who just gets outs. The Arizona Diamondbacks lefthander doesn’t wow or dazzle, but that isn’t what matters. What does is results, and he got plenty of those last year in his rookie season. The 26-year-old left-hander won 16 games with a 3.33 ERA and 3.15 FIP. How did he do it? Not with overpowering stuff. His primary pitch — which he threw over 70 percent of the time — was a fastball that averaged 91.1 mph. He struck out just 6.66 batters per nine innings. What he did is pound the strike zone and keep the ball in the yard. His walk rate was a sterling 1.71 and home run rate a Lilliputian 0.65. And now he has a much better defense behind him, and a home park that's tougher to hit a home run in. I also imagine he'd have a better offense around him, although he will have to face the DH. What does the average NL pitcher bat? .124 and the average DH? .249, that a 12.5% difference for 3 at bats in a game. I think this point is exaggerated. I do agree with your main point.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 14, 2014 14:20:08 GMT -5
And now he has a much better defense behind him, and a home park that's tougher to hit a home run in. I also imagine he'd have a better offense around him, although he will have to face the DH. What does the average NL pitcher bat? .124 and the average DH? .249, that a 12.5% difference for 3 at bats in a game. I think this point is exaggerated. I do agree with your main point. I think that the difference in power is more concerning than the difference in average.
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Post by jmei on Dec 17, 2014 17:58:53 GMT -5
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 17, 2014 18:33:45 GMT -5
Eh... not often that I disagree with you but I had already read that article and decided that it was not worth mentioning.
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