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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 10, 2014 22:55:07 GMT -5
Let's try a little exercise. Rank Rubby and Webster between our pitching prospects in the Top 20 on here: Owens Rodriguez Johnson Barnes Ranaudo Kopech Ball Escobar Stankiewicz
I'd put Rubby behind Barnes and Webster after Escobar, maybe even behind Stankiewicz.
Pretty fair trade to me.
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Post by bigbatter on Dec 10, 2014 22:55:18 GMT -5
Careful what you wish for guys. We didn't want to pay Lester and now not even a full 24hrs after he signed with the Cubs we're trading away valuable players with potential we have not realized yet. This is what I feared would happen if we missed on Lester. Ugh. They were valuable, yes, but so is Miley. And so is cap room. Please spare me the cap room argument. This is the MLB not the NFL, NBA, or NHL.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 10, 2014 22:56:04 GMT -5
Good point jmei, and we might get Masterson too to boot.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 10, 2014 22:56:38 GMT -5
I'm shocked we haven't got a Miley isn't Lester so this trade sucks post yet. We seem to be getting everything else here. Miley's war was actually 1-7 last year and 8.1 over the last 3. His stats show he had some bad luck last season. His k rate is going up. There is no reason to think he won't be a 2-3 win player going forward. You're using fWAR. I quoted use bRef. I tend to use bRef for no particular reason other than habit.
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Post by mjay24 on Dec 10, 2014 22:57:06 GMT -5
Do the Red Sox do this do if they sign Lester? I don't think so. I think they made a panic move and overpayed. At the worst I think ruby could be a high end late inning reliever. Rdlr reminds me of bettances. Guys, this is ridiculous. Miley is not a top of the rotation starter. You don't think that, I don't think that, and the Red Sox front office doesn't think that. These moves are completely orthogonal to one another. The Red Sox are going to pick up another, higher-caliber pitcher to take the place that Lester would have taken. I'm not saying this is lesters replacement because it is not. But I think this does have to do with Lester. If we sign lester we are not trading for Miley. Our 3 best pitching prospects are all left handed. Maybe we don't keep all 3 guys but if they did and we had Lester locked up for the next 6 years are we going to have a 5 man rotation of lefties?
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Post by bigbatter on Dec 10, 2014 22:58:27 GMT -5
Let's try a little exercise. Rank Rubby and Webster between our pitching prospects in the Top 20 on here: Owens Rodriguez Johnson Barnes Ranaudo Kopech Ball Escobar Stankiewicz I'd put Rubby behind Barnes and Webster after Escobar, maybe even behind Stankiewicz. Pretty fair trade to me. I'd put Rubby behind Rodriguez. Let's not forget where he was on this list about a year ago and it's not like he tanked this years in the bigs. He showed flashes of a being everything Miley could be and more.
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Post by polarbear91 on Dec 10, 2014 23:01:38 GMT -5
They may want to wait until next year to land a front of the rotation arm. Yeah, because the prices for top of the rotation pitchers will go down next year. Guess what, the price to obtain starting pitching for next year will be higher than this year and the year after that will be even higher. And our mid range prospects that would, could, should, someday become what they have not yet become is too much to give up for anyone else? Please factor in that we over value our own, and under value most others with regard to prospects and non-stars. The market price is the market price. It's the cost of doing business. We can't decide to invest our money in gold or long term bonds because we feel the market is inefficient now. We need pitching. We will have to pay for that somehow. And most likely it will be painful either in prospects or more money than we think is justified. Let's restart the Holt for Cueto conversations.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 10, 2014 23:02:03 GMT -5
What makes Miley useful is that the Red Sox will now be less dependent on getting quality from their depth. Buchholz and Kelly are probably to be counted on for 250 to 300 innings. That's 100 to 150 that other starters (and the pen) need to make up. Having De LA Rosa on top of that was risky. Miley probably takes 60 to 80 innings of stress off of the depth.
If the Red Sox had a more reliable back of the rotation, risking Rubby might have been more palatable.
I still don't love the trade but you've all talked me into it. You all deserve a cookie.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 10, 2014 23:04:16 GMT -5
Love that backend of the rotation. Why do you love it? Clay is coming off a 4.01 FIP, 72 ERA-plus, -1.6 WAR year; Kelly was 4.37 FIP, 91 ERA-plus, .2 WAR; and Miley had a FIP of 3.98, ERA-plus of 86 and WAR of .8. And that doesn't even mention Clay's reliability issues. Not one of these guys was close to average when it came to run suppression in 2014. "What have you done for me lately?" There is more to all of these guys than the 2014 season. Clay is unreliable health-wise, yes, but we have depth to compensate for him if he is out for extended periods of time. But when he is healthy and his mechanics are going right, he has proven to be an effective pitcher in the past. Kelly is a solid 4-5 on any team IMO, he won't log 200 innings or anything but he'll throw well enough to give you a shot at winning every game. Miley is a good pitcher, regardless of what you think.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2014 23:04:45 GMT -5
Let's try a little exercise. Rank Rubby and Webster between our pitching prospects in the Top 20 on here: Owens Rodriguez Johnson Barnes Ranaudo Kopech Ball Escobar Stankiewicz I'd put Rubby behind Barnes and Webster after Escobar, maybe even behind Stankiewicz. Pretty fair trade to me. I'd put Rubby behind Rodriguez. Let's not forget where he was on this list about a year ago and it's not like he tanked this years in the bigs. He showed flashes of a being everything Miley could be and more. Only every other pitcher advanced while RDLR held course.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 10, 2014 23:07:05 GMT -5
We get a quarter for two dimes and a nickel. Maybe the nickel is only a penny. So what's the fuss?
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Dec 10, 2014 23:11:32 GMT -5
Outside of 2012, what numbers project to above average? His stuff doesn't exactly hint to upside. Like I've been saying, you can't just ignore his best season. It happened, and it should inform his projections. His career marks: 3.79 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA. All are above-average, even when adjusted for league and park. He gets an above-average number of ground balls (career 48.6% GB, up to 51.1% and 52% in the last two years) and while he's not a huge strikeout guy, he's always put up a solid K/BB (career 2.55). Just about average or below in the NL. I'd like to believe in his best season, but he's had 400 more innings of exposure and he does not have great stuff nor does he appear to have exceptional control. I'm going to continue to be negative on this deal and hope I'm wrong. To me, he sounds like a #5 in the AL. At best.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 10, 2014 23:12:08 GMT -5
They may want to wait until next year to land a front of the rotation arm. Yeah, because the prices for top of the rotation pitchers will go down next year. Guess what, the price to obtain starting pitching for next year will be higher than this year and the year after that will be even higher. And our mid range prospects that would, could, should, someday become what they have not yet become is too much to give up for anyone else? Please factor in that we over value our own, and under value most others with regard to prospects and non-stars. The market price is the market price. It's the cost of doing business. We can't decide to invest our money in gold or long term bonds because we feel the market is inefficient now. We need pitching. We will have to pay for that somehow. And most likely it will be painful either in prospects or more money than we think is justified. Let's restart the Holt for Cueto conversations. Lots of recent guys got underwhelming returns in trades. The guys with one year left could be had for reasonable packages imo.
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Post by mjay24 on Dec 10, 2014 23:12:12 GMT -5
We get a quarter for two dimes and a nickel. Maybe the nickel is only a penny. So what's the fuss? Or maybe the quarter goes to being a dime in al east and maybe the two dimes become quarters in the nl west.
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kman22
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Post by kman22 on Dec 10, 2014 23:12:55 GMT -5
We get a quarter for two dimes and a nickel. Maybe the nickel is only a penny. So what's the fuss? Or maybe the quarter goes to being a dime in al east and maybe the two dimes become quarters in the nl west. I think that is the less likely scenario.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 10, 2014 23:13:24 GMT -5
Maybe we don't keep all 3 guys but if they did and we had Lester locked up for the next 6 years are we going to have a 5 man rotation of lefties? Yup, and with all the best right-handed batters in our lineup there won't be enough of them to go around for other teams to counter us. Genius plan if you ask me.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 10, 2014 23:15:39 GMT -5
Or maybe the quarter goes to being a dime in al east and maybe the two dimes become quarters in the nl west. I think that is the less likely scenario. News flash, we will be playing in the AL East.
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2014 23:18:03 GMT -5
Like I've been saying, you can't just ignore his best season. It happened, and it should inform his projections. His career marks: 3.79 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA. All are above-average, even when adjusted for league and park. He gets an above-average number of ground balls (career 48.6% GB, up to 51.1% and 52% in the last two years) and while he's not a huge strikeout guy, he's always put up a solid K/BB (career 2.55). Just about average or below in the NL. I'd like to believe in his best season, but he's had 400 more innings of exposure and he does not have great stuff nor does he appear to have exceptional control. I'm going to continue to be negative on this deal and hope I'm wrong. To me, he sounds like a #5 in the AL. At best. WAR is adjusted for league and park, and I've discussed how his ERA/FIP/xFIP are above-average when league/park-adjusted as well (career 97 ERA-, 97 FIP-, 98 xFIP-). He doesn't have flashy stuff, but he's got two above-average offspeed pitches, gets lots of ground balls with his two-seamer, and has put up above-average walk rates. He's instantly become their best or second-best pitcher. Yes, that also says a lot about how bad they were before this move, but it's hard to say that this move didn't improve them in 2015. The issue is more that they gave up a lot of upside to do so.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 10, 2014 23:18:23 GMT -5
I think that is the less likely scenario. News flash, we will be playing in the AL East. Al East isn't what it once was.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Dec 10, 2014 23:21:36 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox would be better served adding three middle of the rotation starters than one top of the rotation starter.
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Post by nexus on Dec 10, 2014 23:22:13 GMT -5
This post and picture from Wade Miley's Twitter page:
Just a WARNING: Stay away from @wademiley36's locker.
/photo/1
Miley should get along very well with Bryce Brentz, should the two ever play together.
What are you driving at? He grew up outside of Baton Rouge. It's a way of life down there. Should we point out Tyler Beede might like to ski since he's a New Englander?
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Post by bigbatter on Dec 10, 2014 23:22:56 GMT -5
I think that is the less likely scenario. News flash, we will be playing in the AL East. Exactly. Can't wait to see the improvements reflected on the field. Such great value we gained in acquiring 200 innings of 4+ ERA!
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kman22
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Post by kman22 on Dec 10, 2014 23:23:51 GMT -5
I think that is the less likely scenario. News flash, we will be playing in the AL East. That was part of both possible scenarios. I'm not sure what you're getting at, but that was my opinion.
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Post by bigbatter on Dec 10, 2014 23:24:54 GMT -5
News flash, we will be playing in the AL East. Al East isn't what it once was. Still doesn't compare to the NL West. Not even close.
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Post by savedbythebellhorn on Dec 10, 2014 23:25:09 GMT -5
Good trade. Webster was rubbish and Rubby was a reliever. Only 15 pitchers in MLB have pitched as many innings as Wade. Good back of the rotation guy.
Now we go for Zimmerman.
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