SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Report: Red Sox acquire Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 11, 2014 19:45:26 GMT -5
An Ok trade. Nothing better, nothing worse. Porcello will pitch at least 175 innings and possibly with a better than league average ERA. He's been above league average in only two of his six years. Fortunately, he's coming off his best season.
I was actually hoping that Cespedes, if packaged with two or three young(non-elite) pieces, would bring a better P.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
|
Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 19:56:22 GMT -5
An Ok trade. Nothing better, nothing worse. Porcello will pitch at least 175 innings and possibly with a better than league average ERA. He's been above league average in only two of his six years. Fortunately, he's coming off his best season. I was actually hoping that Cespedes, if packaged with two or three young(non-elite) pieces, would bring a better P. He had a great year at age 25, if he can remain consistent that would be great. I'm hoping we extend him now before he gets a chance to prove his 2014 was legit and his price skyrockets.
|
|
|
Post by redsox1534 on Dec 11, 2014 21:08:04 GMT -5
Porcello had the second most GiDP ( ground into double plays) with 30. Thats and excellent number. He also was in the top 10 for GO ( ground outs). I think his SO go up some this year as he continues to get better each season. Love to lock him up now.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2014 21:33:16 GMT -5
An Ok trade. Nothing better, nothing worse. Porcello will pitch at least 175 innings and possibly with a better than league average ERA. He's been above league average in only two of his six years. Fortunately, he's coming off his best season. I was actually hoping that Cespedes, if packaged with two or three young(non-elite) pieces, would bring a better P. Porcello is the exact kind of pitcher that is vastly underrated if you just look at his ERA. He was playing in front of the worst infield defense in the league between 2012-13, which masked the fact that he's become one of the best 40 or so starting pitchers in the league. Over the last three years, he ranks, amongst qualified starters: - 27th in fWAR (9.2, on par with Cueto and Fister)
- 36th in FIP- (92, on par with Samardzija and Iwakuma)
- 30th in xFIP- (91, on par with Lester and Zimmermann)
Steamer projects him to be a 2.5 win player next year (in 182 IP), which is the 30th best projection amongst all starting pitchers in the league and which ranks on par with Hamels. He looks like a clear number two starter to me, and he'll be just 26 next year and so has some upside left. I have him ahead of Latos/Leake, about on par with Iwakuma and Fister, a tiny bit behind Samardzija, and just a little more behind Cueto and Zimmermann. He's really good.
|
|
|
Post by bigbatter on Dec 11, 2014 23:00:32 GMT -5
An Ok trade. Nothing better, nothing worse. Porcello will pitch at least 175 innings and possibly with a better than league average ERA. He's been above league average in only two of his six years. Fortunately, he's coming off his best season. I was actually hoping that Cespedes, if packaged with two or three young(non-elite) pieces, would bring a better P. Porcello is the exact kind of pitcher that is vastly underrated if you just look at his ERA. He was playing in front of the worst infield defense in the league between 2012-13, which masked the fact that he's become one of the best 40 or so starting pitchers in the league. Over the last three years, he ranks, amongst qualified starters: - 27th in fWAR (9.2, on par with Cueto and Fister)
- 36th in FIP- (92, on par with Samardzija and Iwakuma)
- 30th in xFIP- (91, on par with Lester and Zimmermann)
Steamer projects him to be a 2.5 win player next year (in 182 IP), which is the 30th best projection amongst all starting pitchers in the league and which ranks on par with Hamels. He looks like a clear number two starter to me, and he'll be just 26 next year and so has some upside left. I have him ahead of Latos/Leake, about on par with Iwakuma and Fister, a tiny bit behind Samardzija, and just a little more behind Cueto and Zimmermann. He's really good.
Lol no. Come on man. A clear number 2 starter doesn't have a career 4.30 ERA/1.359 WHIP and don't say that over 1000 IP is not a large enough sample size. All the players you mentioned in your post are clearly superior to Porcello except for maybe Leake. Let's relax with the Red Sox googly eyes for a second and be a little more objective here.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Dec 11, 2014 23:09:17 GMT -5
Porcello is the exact kind of pitcher that is vastly underrated if you just look at his ERA. He was playing in front of the worst infield defense in the league between 2012-13, which masked the fact that he's become one of the best 40 or so starting pitchers in the league. Over the last three years, he ranks, amongst qualified starters: - 27th in fWAR (9.2, on par with Cueto and Fister)
- 36th in FIP- (92, on par with Samardzija and Iwakuma)
- 30th in xFIP- (91, on par with Lester and Zimmermann)
Steamer projects him to be a 2.5 win player next year (in 182 IP), which is the 30th best projection amongst all starting pitchers in the league and which ranks on par with Hamels. He looks like a clear number two starter to me, and he'll be just 26 next year and so has some upside left. I have him ahead of Latos/Leake, about on par with Iwakuma and Fister, a tiny bit behind Samardzija, and just a little more behind Cueto and Zimmermann. He's really good.
Lol no. Come on man. A clear number 2 starter doesn't have a career 4.30 ERA/1.359 WHIP and don't say that over 1000 IP is not a large enough sample size. All the players you mentioned in your post are clearly superior to Porcello except for maybe Leake. Let's relax with the Red Sox googly eyes for a second and be a little more objective here. Neither ERA or WHIP properly measure a pitcher's value. Porcello is a ground ball pitcher who has been playing with some bad infielders, such as Cabrera.
|
|
|
Post by honkbal on Dec 11, 2014 23:12:53 GMT -5
Porcello is the exact kind of pitcher that is vastly underrated if you just look at his ERA. He was playing in front of the worst infield defense in the league between 2012-13, which masked the fact that he's become one of the best 40 or so starting pitchers in the league. Over the last three years, he ranks, amongst qualified starters: - 27th in fWAR (9.2, on par with Cueto and Fister)
- 36th in FIP- (92, on par with Samardzija and Iwakuma)
- 30th in xFIP- (91, on par with Lester and Zimmermann)
Steamer projects him to be a 2.5 win player next year (in 182 IP), which is the 30th best projection amongst all starting pitchers in the league and which ranks on par with Hamels. He looks like a clear number two starter to me, and he'll be just 26 next year and so has some upside left. I have him ahead of Latos/Leake, about on par with Iwakuma and Fister, a tiny bit behind Samardzija, and just a little more behind Cueto and Zimmermann. He's really good.
Lol no. Come on man. A clear number 2 starter doesn't have a career 4.30 ERA/1.359 WHIP and don't say that over 1000 IP is not a large enough sample size. All the players you mentioned in your post are clearly superior to Porcello except for maybe Leake. Let's relax with the Red Sox googly eyes for a second and be a little more objective here. He's 25. He's 2 months old than Rubby De LA Rosa. And he has always had poor defenses behind him. Are you sure you want to use career ERA?
|
|
|
Post by bigbatter on Dec 11, 2014 23:17:29 GMT -5
Lol no. Come on man. A clear number 2 starter doesn't have a career 4.30 ERA/1.359 WHIP and don't say that over 1000 IP is not a large enough sample size. All the players you mentioned in your post are clearly superior to Porcello except for maybe Leake. Let's relax with the Red Sox googly eyes for a second and be a little more objective here. Neither ERA or WHIP properly measure a pitcher's value. Porcello is a ground ball pitcher who has been playing with some bad infielders, such as Cabrera. How much credit are we going to give the "bad infielders" for his current averages? Do you have a stat that adjusts what his numbers would be if lets say he had a top-10 infield defense behind him?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2014 23:21:36 GMT -5
Neither ERA or WHIP properly measure a pitcher's value. Porcello is a ground ball pitcher who has been playing with some bad infielders, such as Cabrera. How much credit are we going to give the "bad infielders" for his current averages? Do you have a stat that adjusts what his numbers would be if lets say he had a top-10 infield defense behind him? We do have defense-neutral stats, and I cited two of them above (FIP-, xFIP-). By those metrics, he's been one of the top 40 or so pitchers in baseball over the last three years.
|
|
|
Post by bigbatter on Dec 11, 2014 23:25:02 GMT -5
How much credit are we going to give the "bad infielders" for his current averages? Do you have a stat that adjusts what his numbers would be if lets say he had a top-10 infield defense behind him? We do have defense-neutral stats, and I cited two of them above (FIP-, xFIP-). By those metrics, he's been one of the top 40 or so pitchers in baseball over the last three years. I understand that but is there a way to calculate ERA/WHIP that would reflect those metrics?
|
|
|
Post by feez732 on Dec 11, 2014 23:59:40 GMT -5
We do have defense-neutral stats, and I cited two of them above (FIP-, xFIP-). By those metrics, he's been one of the top 40 or so pitchers in baseball over the last three years. I understand that but is there a way to calculate ERA/WHIP that would reflect those metrics? Even ignoring the bad defense argument, you're using career numbers for a pitcher that debuted in the majors at the age of 20. His worst seasons (by ERA/WHIP, which seems to be what you care about) were his age 21/22 seasons. Most of his peers were still in college or the minors at that age. How can you think it's rational to penalize him for these seasons?
|
|
|
Post by redsox4242 on Dec 12, 2014 0:34:31 GMT -5
I hope Ben doesn't mess this one up too, Lets offer Porcello a contract extension. Porcello is only 25 years old and isn't even in his prime yet. This was Bens best move by far.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Dec 12, 2014 0:45:12 GMT -5
I hope Ben doesn't mess this one up too, Lets offer Porcello a contract extension. Porcello is only 25 years old and isn't even in his prime yet. This was Bens best move by far. Don't think 4/70 will cut it. Haha. Id love to extend porcello. What is fair. It's very rare to get a FA pitcher at such a young age. Right now 5/100 might do it. Absolute crazyness. What if he has a breakout type year?
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 12, 2014 0:52:53 GMT -5
... I understand that but is there a way to calculate ERA/WHIP that would reflect those metrics? Not really. That's what fielding independent pitching statistics are for. They have a better chance of predicting how a pitcher will do in the future than ERA. They correlate better year-to-year. One of the most important things they do is minimize luck as a factor. Turns out that there's a lot of variation in just that - the luck a pitcher has with balls put into play and falling in for hits, or sneaking through the infield. That's called the batting average on balls in play, and it's a really good way to get a handle on that variation. If a pitcher has a year where players beat him up for, say, a .360 BABIP, there's a good chance that will regress - drop back down to something more normal such as .290 - in the future. For ground ball pitchers, having an excellent infield defense can make a good bit of difference. Detroit's has been mediocre to bad, with guys like Cabrera, and Peralta. There's a reason why the Tigers wanted Iglesias, and why Cabrera moved to first base. They knew they were costing themselves runs. There's been interest on the board in Porcello for a while. A lot of us think he can be a very good pitcher in the right environment. Having Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta as your third baseman and shortstop isn't that environment.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 12, 2014 0:54:48 GMT -5
I hope Ben doesn't mess this one up too, Lets offer Porcello a contract extension. Porcello is only 25 years old and isn't even in his prime yet. This was Bens best move by far. Don't think 4/70 will cut it. Haha. Id love to extend porcello. What is fair. It's very rare to get a FA pitcher at such a young age. Right now 5/100 might do it. Absolute crazyness. What if he has a breakout type year? I think Boras is his agent. I don't think he believes his clients should sign extensions.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Dec 12, 2014 0:59:49 GMT -5
Don't think 4/70 will cut it. Haha. Id love to extend porcello. What is fair. It's very rare to get a FA pitcher at such a young age. Right now 5/100 might do it. Absolute crazyness. What if he has a breakout type year? I think Boras is his agent. I don't think he believes his clients should sign extensions. He left boras last year Edit Back in 09 www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/porcello-no-longer-with-boras.html
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Dec 12, 2014 0:59:50 GMT -5
Don't think 4/70 will cut it. Haha. Id love to extend porcello. What is fair. It's very rare to get a FA pitcher at such a young age. Right now 5/100 might do it. Absolute crazyness. What if he has a breakout type year? I think Boras is his agent. I don't think he believes his clients should sign extensions. Probably one of the main reasons that the tigers were willing to trade him. That and that they will have price to worry about aswell
|
|
|
Post by soxfan06 on Dec 12, 2014 1:00:20 GMT -5
Don't think 4/70 will cut it. Haha. Id love to extend porcello. What is fair. It's very rare to get a FA pitcher at such a young age. Right now 5/100 might do it. Absolute crazyness. What if he has a breakout type year? I think Boras is his agent. I don't think he believes his clients should sign extensions. Porcello was represented by Boras out of college, but he recently left Boras and is now represented either Excel Agency or Hendricks Sports (there are conflicting reports on that).
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Dec 12, 2014 1:01:06 GMT -5
I think Boras is his agent. I don't think he believes his clients should sign extensions. Porcello was represented by Boras out of college, but he recently left Boras and is now represented either Excel Agency or Hendricks Sports (there are conflicting reports on that). www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/porcello-no-longer-with-boras.html
|
|
|
Post by thursty on Dec 12, 2014 1:02:49 GMT -5
Neither ERA or WHIP properly measure a pitcher's value. Porcello is a ground ball pitcher who has been playing with some bad infielders, such as Cabrera. And now he'll be playing with an average 3B and a bad SS.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Dec 12, 2014 1:05:35 GMT -5
Your right. Excel sports represents him now.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,961
|
Post by cdj on Dec 12, 2014 1:07:53 GMT -5
Above average 3B.
Xander was improving towards the end of the year. Still not good though.
And you conveniently left out the right side of the infield which is probably as good of one as you'll find in the league.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 12, 2014 4:25:51 GMT -5
It wasn't long ago though where it seemed like we were crunching Porcello on a regular basis. I get where jmei is coming from and support this trade but I would prefer to go all in on the infield D. I'm not a big fan of Marrero but on this team he, or someone like him, does provide some defensive boost when over half the staff has a ground ball rate above 50%.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan1615 on Dec 12, 2014 4:43:13 GMT -5
Neither ERA or WHIP properly measure a pitcher's value. Porcello is a ground ball pitcher who has been playing with some bad infielders, such as Cabrera. And now he'll be playing with an average 3B and a bad SS. Sandoval is above average and your Xander trashing is really getting old
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,754
|
Post by nomar on Dec 12, 2014 4:43:14 GMT -5
It wasn't long ago though where it seemed like we were crunching Porcello on a regular basis. I get where jmei is coming from and support this trade but I would prefer to go all in on the infield D. I'm not a big fan of Marrero but on this team he, or someone like him, does provide some defensive boost when over half the staff has a ground ball rate above 50%. Do you seriously think a 10% team increase in GB% would make Marrero equally as valuable as Bogaerts? Because that's what you're implying every time you throw this idea out here.
|
|
|