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Report: Red Sox acquire Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes
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Post by soxfan1615 on Dec 12, 2014 4:43:47 GMT -5
It wasn't long ago though where it seemed like we were crunching Porcello on a regular basis. I get where jmei is coming from and support this trade but I would prefer to go all in on the infield D. I'm not a big fan of Marrero but on this team he, or someone like him, does provide some defensive boost when over half the staff has a ground ball rate above 50%. Do you seriously think a 10% team increase in GB% would make Marrero equally as valuable as Bogaerts? Because that's what you're implying every time you throw this idea out here. yeah this is ridiculous
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 12, 2014 6:12:58 GMT -5
... I understand that but is there a way to calculate ERA/WHIP that would reflect those metrics? Not really. That's what fielding independent pitching statistics are for. They have a better chance of predicting how a pitcher will do in the future than ERA. They correlate better year-to-year. One of the most important things they do is minimize luck as a factor. Turns out that there's a lot of variation in just that - the luck a pitcher has with balls put into play and falling in for hits, or sneaking through the infield. That's called the batting average on balls in play, and it's a really good way to get a handle on that variation. If a pitcher has a year where players beat him up for, say, a .360 BABIP, there's a good chance that will regress - drop back down to something more normal such as .290 - in the future. For ground ball pitchers, having an excellent infield defense can make a good bit of difference. Detroit's has been mediocre to bad, with guys like Cabrera, and Peralta. There's a reason why the Tigers wanted Iglesias, and why Cabrera moved to first base. They knew they were costing themselves runs. There's been interest on the board in Porcello for a while. A lot of us think he can be a very good pitcher in the right environment. Having Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta as your third baseman and shortstop isn't that environment. FWIW, Peralta is actually a pretty good defender at short stop.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 12, 2014 10:02:49 GMT -5
I hope Ben doesn't mess this one up too, Lets offer Porcello a contract extension. Porcello is only 25 years old and isn't even in his prime yet. This was Bens best move by far. Don't think 4/70 will cut it. Haha. Id love to extend porcello. What is fair. It's very rare to get a FA pitcher at such a young age. Right now 5/100 might do it. Absolute crazyness. What if he has a breakout type year? Right now 5/100 might do it - Doubt it, but would love it if it did
I think his market as of today to extend & pay him for his prime ages - 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 (8yrs) - would be in the $175+ Million range.
If he pitches to the same as last year and then hits the open market next year I think it will be more
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2014 12:19:48 GMT -5
I have no idea what Porcello's market value is. 26 year old pitcher free agents almost never happen. Don't even know if it has yet. It might be in the Hamels vicinity because there's a lot less decline to pay for.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2014 12:46:03 GMT -5
It wasn't long ago though where it seemed like we were crunching Porcello on a regular basis. I get where jmei is coming from and support this trade but I would prefer to go all in on the infield D. I'm not a big fan of Marrero but on this team he, or someone like him, does provide some defensive boost when over half the staff has a ground ball rate above 50%. Porcello vs. Red Sox: 2014: 1 start, 8 innings, 1 run on 6 H and 1 BB, 4 K 2013: 1 start, 5 innings, 9 runs (8 earned) on 7 H (3 HR) and 3 BB, 4 K 2012: 1 start, 5 innings, 4 R on 8 H & 2 BB, 6 K 2011: 1 start, 3 innings, 6 runs on 6 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 2 K 2010: didn't face Boston 2009: 2 starts, 5.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 1 K So yeah, guess he's been kind of snakebitten against Boston, but I'm not judging him on a six-game sample, personally. As for the Marrero point some are making, I think a 10% increase in GB rate gives him more value to the Sox than he may have previously had, but let's not forget that two of those GB heavy pitchers are in the last year of their deals too.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2014 13:12:50 GMT -5
We also said we owned Mariano Rivera, but that doesn't mean he wasn't great.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 12, 2014 14:06:04 GMT -5
I like that the Red Sox traded Lester for Cespedes last year because I'm glad they didn't just let him walk away and get nothing in return. I think turning Cespedes into Porcello is another good move. Seeing as Porcello is only under contract for this coming year, and will become a free agent at the of age 27 (he will be 26 in a few days), I think NOW is the time to try to extend him. Considering what Starting Pitchers are going for what do you think is his current fair market price? I think the market "as of today" to extend & pay him for his PRIME AGES of- 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 (8yrs) - would be in the $175+ Million dollar range. If he pitches this year as well as he did last year, and then is allowed to hit the open market, I think it will be more. I think the Red Sox should step up and make a respectable & reasonable offer to try & secure Porcello, (his agent is Hendricks Sports). And if they are unable to extend him, move him at the deadline. They should not allow the failure of extending Lester to eventually turn into nothing more then a draft pick.
My proposal:
8 Years for $160 Million with 2 team options with an opt out after 4 years
Give him a $5 million dollar signing bonus 2016 - 15m 2017 - 17m 2018 - 19m 2019 - 20m option to opt out 2020 - 21m 2021 - 21m 2022 - 21m 2023 - 21m 2024 - team option @ 15m or a 5m buy out 2025 - team option @ 15m or a 5m buy out
I think the price for starting pitching is rising and rising fast. In 2 years a solid #3 will be getting $20m per, a #1 $30m per, in 6yrs it could be $25m per & $35 per
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 14, 2014 8:56:49 GMT -5
So, we've essentially traded 31 y/o Jon Lester for 26 y/o Rick Porcello, getting an extra relatively inexpensive year in the process, and putting us again in a position to either negotiate an extension, or get a draft pick or something in a deadline trade. (And we've swapped Wilson and Speier for a 3rd round pick).
Here is Lester's bWAR, adjusted for pitch-framing received:
Year bWAR 2008 6.4 2009 6.6 2010 5.0 2011 3.9 2012 0.3 2013 2.8 2014 3.6 The whole he-had-his-best year bit is nonsense.
Porcello in 2014? 4.25.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 14, 2014 10:22:35 GMT -5
So, we've essentially traded 31 y/o Jon Lester for 26 y/o Rick Porcello, getting an extra relatively inexpensive year in the process, and putting us again in a position to either negotiate an extension, or get a draft pick or something in a deadline trade. (And we've swapped Wilson and Speier for a 3rd round pick). Here is Lester's bWAR, adjusted for pitch-framing received: Year bWAR 2008 6.4 2009 6.6 2010 5.0 2011 3.9 2012 0.3 2013 2.8 2014 3.6 The whole he-had-his-best year bit is nonsense. Porcello in 2014? 4.25. So more 20% of Lester's value last year came from pitch framing?
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Dec 14, 2014 12:22:30 GMT -5
He was paired with David Ross for most of the year.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 14, 2014 13:48:46 GMT -5
He was paired with David Ross for most of the year. How many times was he paired with Ross in 2013, because pitch framing was, under those numbers, a much smaller portion of his success in 2013 than it was in 2014.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 14, 2014 14:14:50 GMT -5
I think Porcello is going to have a big year and would be in favor of extending him. The easiest comparison for what it would take is Homer Bailey. Last spring Bailey had a year of Arbitration and was coming off a 3.7 fWAR/ 3.2 bWAR season. Porcello is coming off a 3.1 fWAR/4.0 bWAR season. Porcello is also a year+ younger than Bailey was and has had a more consistent track record of success.
Bailey signed a 6 year $105M contract with a mutual $25M option for the seventh year. I think a fair deal would be to guarantee the seventh year and bump it up slightly. Something like 7 years, $137M makes sense to me.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 14, 2014 14:18:38 GMT -5
I imagine that our experience attempting to extend Lester will have an effect on our strategy when it comes to trying to extend Porcello. It might be a lot cheaper for us if we try to extend him earlier, as I imagine that Lester wouldn't have cost 6/155 back when we offered him 4/70.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 14, 2014 21:34:24 GMT -5
I'd definitely want to extend Porcello before the season starts if possible. He's 26, he's pretty consistent and he is pretty good. I'd love to get him signed for something like 7/$125M. But I wouldn't be surprised if he was more looking for a 3-4-5 year deal because he could get between $15M-$20M a year now, and then could cash in again after his age 30-31 seasons.
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Post by dirtywater on Dec 14, 2014 23:28:39 GMT -5
let's lock him up 4/70 seems like a reasonable opening offer
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 15, 2014 5:23:06 GMT -5
He was paired with David Ross for most of the year. How many times was he paired with Ross in 2013, because pitch framing was, under those numbers, a much smaller portion of his success in 2013 than it was in 2014. I don't want to get on your case specifically, but if you have b-ref bookmarked, you can answer that question in less than 30 seconds. The answer is that Ross caught him 11 times and Saltalamacchia, a below-average pitch framer, caught him 22.
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Post by zil on Dec 15, 2014 5:30:31 GMT -5
I'd definitely want to extend Porcello before the season starts if possible. He's 26, he's pretty consistent and he is pretty good. I'd love to get him signed for something like 7/$125M. But I wouldn't be surprised if he was more looking for a 3-4-5 year deal because he could get between $15M-$20M a year now, and then could cash in again after his age 30-31 seasons. Wouldn't a 3-5 year deal be preferable to a 7 year deal? He's a pitcher. You'd be buying out the rest of his prime years and getting none of the decline.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 15, 2014 9:35:20 GMT -5
I think Porcello is going to have a big year and would be in favor of extending him. The easiest comparison for what it would take is Homer Bailey. Last spring Bailey had a year of Arbitration and was coming off a 3.7 fWAR/ 3.2 bWAR season. Porcello is coming off a 3.1 fWAR/4.0 bWAR season. Porcello is also a year+ younger than Bailey was and has had a more consistent track record of success. Bailey signed a 6 year $105M contract with a mutual $25M option for the seventh year. I think a fair deal would be to guarantee the seventh year and bump it up slightly. Something like 7 years, $137M makes sense to me. Huge fan of replacing that final arb season to bring down AAV. I wanted that for Lester's option last spring. I'm just afraid that Porcello expects a big year too with better defense and better framing.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 15, 2014 9:38:29 GMT -5
I'd definitely want to extend Porcello before the season starts if possible. He's 26, he's pretty consistent and he is pretty good. I'd love to get him signed for something like 7/$125M. But I wouldn't be surprised if he was more looking for a 3-4-5 year deal because he could get between $15M-$20M a year now, and then could cash in again after his age 30-31 seasons. Wouldn't a 3-5 year deal be preferable to a 7 year deal? He's a pitcher. You'd be buying out the rest of his prime years and getting none of the decline. I'd like to sign him for $500k per year with unlimited team options. But we're trying to be realistic. If he really wants a 3-5 year deal, then he probably wants a 7 year deal with opt-out.
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Post by MLBDreams on Dec 15, 2014 12:12:27 GMT -5
Some of you wanted him 5-7 yr for $100-125M. He's career 4.30 ERA in 6 full seasons and comes from pitcher friendly Tiger Stadium and enough run support from heavyweight offense line up. You cannot give fat contract to the pitcher that never won anything (ERA title, CY Young, carry team to WS title, etc). His last season happened to be his best ones. We don't know if he'll be much better pitcher in 2015 than 2014. New team & different team players.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 15, 2014 12:25:23 GMT -5
Some of you wanted him 5-7 yr for $100-125M. He's career 4.30 ERA in 6 full seasons and comes from pitcher friendly Tiger Stadium and enough run support from heavyweight offense line up. You cannot give fat contract to the pitcher that never won anything (ERA title, CY Young, carry team to WS title, etc). His last season happened to be his best ones. We don't know if he'll be much better pitcher in 2015 than 2014. New team & different team players. Chances are that a 25 year old ground ball pitcher on a bad defensive team has not peaked yet and it's not surprising that he just had his best season. It's amazing he even has 1000 IP at his age.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 15, 2014 12:44:48 GMT -5
Some of you wanted him 5-7 yr for $100-125M. He's career 4.30 ERA in 6 full seasons and comes from pitcher friendly Tiger Stadium and enough run support from heavyweight offense line up. You cannot give fat contract to the pitcher that never won anything (ERA title, CY Young, carry team to WS title, etc). His last season happened to be his best ones. We don't know if he'll be much better pitcher in 2015 than 2014. New team & different team players. The problem though is that if you wait for him to win something, you end up paying a lot more. There's a lot of reasons to think that Porcello's best years are still ahead of him. If that's the case you want to sign him now before the price goes up.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 15, 2014 12:48:24 GMT -5
Some of you wanted him 5-7 yr for $100-125M. He's career 4.30 ERA in 6 full seasons and comes from pitcher friendly Tiger Stadium and enough run support from heavyweight offense line up. You cannot give fat contract to the pitcher that never won anything (ERA title, CY Young, carry team to WS title, etc). His last season happened to be his best ones. We don't know if he'll be much better pitcher in 2015 than 2014. New team & different team players. Chances are that a 25 year old ground ball pitcher on a bad defensive team has not peaked yet and it's not surprising that he just had his best season. It's amazing he even has 1000 IP at his age. Rubby De La Rosa was also 25 last year and according to some he still projects to be a mid-rotation starter. Apply the same growth curve to Porcello and he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. (Note that I don't actually believe either of these projections; just trying to give some perspective)
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 15, 2014 12:56:42 GMT -5
I'd definitely want to extend Porcello before the season starts if possible. He's 26, he's pretty consistent and he is pretty good. I'd love to get him signed for something like 7/$125M. But I wouldn't be surprised if he was more looking for a 3-4-5 year deal because he could get between $15M-$20M a year now, and then could cash in again after his age 30-31 seasons. Wouldn't a 3-5 year deal be preferable to a 7 year deal? He's a pitcher. You'd be buying out the rest of his prime years and getting none of the decline. Maybe, but if Porcello improves like many of us think he will and is a really good #2, I'd absolutely want him on a 7 year deal worth around $18M per year. $18M/y is going to be like $9M/y when 2020 comes around and it's not like pitchers are out of their prime when they are 31-33. We worry about contracts that run into the 35, 36, 37, 38 years seasons. Not saying I wouldn't want to sign him to a 3-5 year extension, but rather I'd prefer to get him signed long term. There is always risk involved when you sign a guy long term, but we are talking about a 26 year old, not a 30 year old guy, so it makes sense to try to get him long term.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 15, 2014 12:58:02 GMT -5
Some of you wanted him 5-7 yr for $100-125M. He's career 4.30 ERA in 6 full seasons and comes from pitcher friendly Tiger Stadium and enough run support from heavyweight offense line up. You cannot give fat contract to the pitcher that never won anything (ERA title, CY Young, carry team to WS title, etc). His last season happened to be his best ones. We don't know if he'll be much better pitcher in 2015 than 2014. New team & different team players. Ah yes, the whole ERA argument. Let me guess, we shouldn't have traded Cespedes either because he is a lock for 100+ RBIs.
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