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Report: Justin Masterson returns to Boston (1 yr/$9.5mm)
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 11, 2014 14:01:08 GMT -5
Rob Bradford @bradfo
Source: Masterson deal will be $9.5 million plus incentives
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 11, 2014 14:05:26 GMT -5
I'm very happy to have Masterson.
I love his potential and American league experience and he is very easy to root for, just an excellent and rare person.
+masterson -losing rdlr =acquiring Pocello
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 11, 2014 14:11:26 GMT -5
I'm not thrilled if the rotation is Porcello/Miley/Kelly/Buch/Masterson, but I could see that as actually a pretty decent top to bottom rotation without your traditional meager back end guys, with potential for Buchholz, Kelly, or Porcello to take a step to the next level.
More than likely, I still think they trade for another "2" in Iwakuma or similar players, or make the blockbuster deal for Hamels, at which point you'd have to assume Buch, Kelly, or Miley are included. I wasn't all that upset when Lester left for what he got paid, and from the looks of it, the Sox had many things ready to go pretty much ASAP
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 11, 2014 14:13:05 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale ?@bnightengale 15 sec. Masterson will get about $9 million from #RedSox I don't think that is the salary of a bullpen arm. Besides, if he pitches poorly, we won't want him in the 'pen either. If he pitches well, we definitely want him in the rotation. Dude eats innings. Some of us have been whispering for some time about the 100 inning + reliever. There hasn't been a guy like that in many years but there some pitchers who aren't quite good enough to start but, are too good to be in relief, and can seemingly pitch all the time. Trevor Bauer has been mentioned for this type role as was Tim Lincicum both at the beginning and now towards the end of his career. The Red Sox traded Masterson away because they didn't think he was a starter and honestly despite his track record, I think they were right because he doesn't have a good pitch to get lefties out. Given that he's only signed for one year anyways, he's the perfect guy to try in this role and if he succeeds he's worth $9M. In I am sure Joe Castig is very excited about the move. Mrs. Masterson has her oven fired up and cookie batter ready.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 11, 2014 14:15:15 GMT -5
Cookies all around the press box!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Dec 11, 2014 14:37:53 GMT -5
I'll never forget Heidi's interview with him after he was dealt in 09. Sox were in Baltimore. He was part of VMart trade. She interviewed him outside locker room after the deal was announced. Kid was devastated. He really struggled to keep it together in that interview but couldn't. It's fun to root for good guys.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 14:43:30 GMT -5
Is Masterson not on Twitter? Can't find him.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Dec 11, 2014 14:55:30 GMT -5
I'm not thrilled if the rotation is Porcello/Miley/Kelly/Buch/Masterson, but I could see that as actually a pretty decent top to bottom rotation without your traditional meager back end guys, with potential for Buchholz, Kelly, or Porcello to take a step to the next level. More than likely, I still think they trade for another "2" in Iwakuma or similar players, or make the blockbuster deal for Hamels, at which point you'd have to assume Buch, Kelly, or Miley are included. I wasn't all that upset when Lester left for what he got paid, and from the looks of it, the Sox had many things ready to go pretty much ASAP I don't have a problem going into the season with this rotation, knowing the Sox have ammunition (yes, including Brentz) for a trade in spring training or mid-season and the ability to add Owens/Johnson/ERod if one arrives ahead of schedule.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 11, 2014 15:03:31 GMT -5
I'll never forget Heidi's interview with him after he was dealt in 09. Sox were in Baltimore. He was part of VMart trade. She interviewed him outside locker room after the deal was announced. Kid was devastated. He really struggled to keep it together in that interview but couldn't. It's fun to root for good guys. That turned out to be a terrible deal for the Sox. They didn't keep VMart. In fact, I don't think they offered him a contract, and so they didn't get a draft pick when he signed with Detroit.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 11, 2014 15:06:20 GMT -5
I'll never forget Heidi's interview with him after he was dealt in 09. Sox were in Baltimore. He was part of VMart trade. She interviewed him outside locker room after the deal was announced. Kid was devastated. He really struggled to keep it together in that interview but couldn't. It's fun to root for good guys. That turned out to be a terrible deal for the Sox. They didn't keep VMart. In fact, I don't think they offered him a contract, and so they didn't get a draft pick when he signed with Detroit. Martinez was offer arbitration, he declined, and the Red Sox selected Matt Barnes and Henry Owens with the picks received.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 11, 2014 15:16:03 GMT -5
Thanks for the correction. Before I wrote this I thought the Sox got some good picks for him, but when I checked the draft history here, nothing was listed. So I decided my memory was at fault. So it wasn't that bad a deal, afterall.
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Post by cwaaa on Dec 11, 2014 15:24:12 GMT -5
All of this negative overreaction is ridiculous.
In 2013 he had the stuff and results of a number 2 starter. And he's gonna be a number 4 or 5 starter for us.
"Yuck?"
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Post by raftsox on Dec 11, 2014 15:47:01 GMT -5
You are making up arbitrary rotation rankings based nothing on fact. Here's a hint, try looking at their stats for once or twice. Sorry tell me who on this staff is anything more than a 3rd starter at best. Use your stats please Ok. Well, I'll try to put some reason to this. If you take all qualified starters from 2012 through 2014 and sort by FIP- you'll find that a 2/3/4 starter is from 89 to 111 FIP-. Moving a standard deviation beyond that (<88) gets you into the #1 starters or, (112+) the #5 starters. Porcello is clearly in #2 status with a low 90s FIP- for several years running. Wade Miley is a #3 starter at just over 100 for the last 2 seasons. Masterson, going backwards from 2014 is: Turrible, #1, #3, #1, #3, #2, #4. (I'm willing to bet on a return to respectability) Joe Kelly is actually a 4/5 starter. Buchholz is a 3/4 who has managed to sprinkle in some elite, "Ace" type seasons. Now, the important part to remember is that groundball pitchers typically outperform their FIPs on a RA basis assuming they have a good defense behind them. I personally think the RS infield defense in 2015 is going to be top 5 in the majors.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2014 16:01:42 GMT -5
I really like this move, just wish it had an option year or two. For those that say Masterson can't be a starter, I disagree. Sure he was bad in 2014 rWAR of -1.6, but in 2013 3.4, 0 in 2012 and 3.6 in 2011. That's two years of a rWAR above 3.4. The way things are going, looks like we add one more pitcher to a group of Porcello, Buchholz, Masterson, Miley and Kelly. I like that, having someone like Kelly as a 6th starter. You need that with Buchholz and Masterson, in case they have a bad season/injuries.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2014 16:03:19 GMT -5
That turned out to be a terrible deal for the Sox. They didn't keep VMart. In fact, I don't think they offered him a contract, and so they didn't get a draft pick when he signed with Detroit. Martinez was offer arbitration, he declined, and the Red Sox selected Matt Barnes and Henry Owens with the picks received. I miss the good old days of getting two picks. Trading Masterson was brilliant.
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Post by sdsoxfan on Dec 11, 2014 16:24:45 GMT -5
BC loves building depth with low risk short term signings and keeping financial flexibility.
This run on mid-rotation arms is similar to Napoli/Victorino/Dempster signings in 2013. Majority of posters complained about each of those moves when they were announced and love complaining about these as well. We just acquired 3 mid rotation ground ball pitchers under 30 year of age that should give us 200+ innings and better than AL average advanced stats with our strong infield and outfield defense. With our lineup we could enter the season with this staff and be competitive/favorite in AL East. Sox have financial flexibility to extend any pitcher that performs well and has set the stage for any of our young pitching studs to break in by end of 2015.
Now if the right opportunity comes to trade for a stud like Hamels, Sale, Zimmerman or Cueto, we have the major league and minor league pieces to pull that off, but we don't have to be desperate to try to replace Lester immediately. If the price is too high we can look again at the trade deadline.
Love the Porcello move - win win deal for Sox & Tigers. Just missed out to Sale in 2014 All Star Voting when he was 11-5 with 3.45 ERA. Love the Masterson signing and bringing great kid back home. After his 2013 All Star Season, 14-10 with 3.45 ERA, Cleveland offered him something in the range of 3 years/$30 and Masterson asked for 3 years/$50M after first asking for something in the range of 6/$102. Like the Miley trade, who was All Star in 2012 going 16-11 with 3.33 ERA. This in the one move we may come to regret trading both De La Rosa and Webster for Miley, but Arizona's their new GM knew them from his Dodger days and held out for both.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 17:20:54 GMT -5
Turn Clay into Cole somehow and I'm giddy. Clay's 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. Hamels' 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. I'll be giddy if Clay is healthy and stays that way all year, too.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 11, 2014 17:30:18 GMT -5
Turn Clay into Cole somehow and I'm giddy. Clay's 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. Hamels' 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. I'll be giddy if Clay is healthy and stays that way all year, too. Well Clay has never started 30 games before and that's pretty much all Hamels does. That has value, arguably more value than hypothetical bizzaro world 30 start ace Clay Buchholz.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 11, 2014 17:30:22 GMT -5
Turn Clay into Cole somehow and I'm giddy. Clay's 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. Hamels' 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. I'll be giddy if Clay is healthy and stays that way all year, too. There are people that hate the use of sabermetrics in baseball this is why. a 6 BWAR per 30 starts over 20 starts and a 6 Bwar per 30 starts over 35 starts are two entirely different things. You can't extrapolate and imagine that the two are actually comparable when they are not.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 11, 2014 17:34:02 GMT -5
Turn Clay into Cole somehow and I'm giddy. Clay's 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. Hamels' 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. I'll be giddy if Clay is healthy and stays that way all year, too. It's why I think they should/will keep Clay. His upside is arguably top flight starter. Are the chances of him every getting there consistently very high, of course not. But I think it's part of the reason they're going with Miley/Masterson over Webster/RDLR. The first two are much more likely to pitch at a solid level at the back end of the rotation, while who knows what Webster/RDLR would have been like. Having some risk in the rotation is fine, and good if the upside is there. But filling 3/5 of the rotation with potential wild cards can blow out in your face very quickly. I've always been a Buchholz fan, and think he could be a major key if they make a run towards the WS without adding a top flight starter
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 17:50:38 GMT -5
Clay's 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. Hamels' 3 best seasons total to 6.0 bWAR per 30 starts. I'll be giddy if Clay is healthy and stays that way all year, too. There are people that hate the use of sabermetrics in baseball this is why. a 6 BWAR per 30 starts over 20 starts and a 6 Bwar per 30 starts over 35 starts are two entirely different things. You can't extrapolate and imagine that the two are actually comparable when they are not. Just what are you talking about? I pointed out that Hamels and Buchholz are more or less equal talents, which is not obviously so, but is true. You might want to regress Buchholz's performance to the mean a bit, but 58 starts spread over a four-year period (versus Hamels' 94) goes a long way to establishing a talent level. There was in fact a bit of ironic attack in the final line, since, in fact, he's been healthy for a full season just once since his rookie year (if you regard slow starts after an injury as a function of ill health, and you should). Since I'm the 1 guy (out of 11 so far) who would definitely trade Swihart for Hamels (if that were the only way to get an affordable ace, which it isn't, I think), I'm not dissing Hamels. I'm just reminding people (again and again, sigh) just how good Clay Buchholz actually is when healthy.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 11, 2014 18:37:57 GMT -5
There are people that hate the use of sabermetrics in baseball this is why. a 6 BWAR per 30 starts over 20 starts and a 6 Bwar per 30 starts over 35 starts are two entirely different things. You can't extrapolate and imagine that the two are actually comparable when they are not. Just what are you talking about? I pointed out that Hamels and Buchholz are more or less equal talents, which is not obviously so, but is true. You might want to regress Buchholz's performance to the mean a bit, but 58 starts spread over a four-year period (versus Hamels' 94) goes a long way to establishing a talent level. There was in fact a bit of ironic attack in the final line, since, in fact, he's been healthy for a full season just once since his rookie year (if you regard slow starts after an injury as a function of ill health, and you should). Since I'm the 1 guy (out of 11 so far) who would definitely trade Swihart for Hamels (if that were the only way to get an affordable ace, which it isn't, I think), I'm not dissing Hamels. I'm just reminding people (again and again, sigh) just how good Clay Buchholz actually is when healthy. Clay. Buchholz. Is. Never. Healthy.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 19:28:55 GMT -5
Clay Buchholz and Hamels may have equal ceilings, but Buchholz is inconsistent. He has periods where he completely loses it and it takes him a while to get it back. A lot of this may have to do with injury, but he's pretty much been useless a good amount of his career.
You can't compare Buchholz and Hamel's by taking their best three years. Camels is a horse and he's at least above average every single year. Buchholz can't string two good years together, let alone stay completely healthy for one.
Clay's highest number of starts in a season is 29 and highest number of innings is 189 IP. Cole Hamels hasn't started less than 30 games or 190 IP since 2007, the year Buchholz broke into the league.
You can compare the average of Buchholz and Hamels' best 3 seasons, but Hamels' career average year is a hell of a lot closer to that best 3 year average than Buchholz is to his. They're on completely different planes. If everything went perfect for them, they might put up similar seasons value-wise, but chances are that won't happen for Buchholz.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2014 19:33:30 GMT -5
I see a lot of yeahs and a lot of nays. What I don't know is how healthy IS Justin Masterson? His knee (I think) wasn't right and he got absolutely hammered.
If that's the Masterson we're getting then that's a lot of negative value. If he's healthy and can duplicate his best seasons with Cleveland then the Sox have a useful pitcher who can toss 200 innings and keep the team in the game.
I don't know which Masterson we're getting.
My gut feeling is that I'm not terribly happy with the move. I don't remember being that upset when the Sox dealt him away for V-Mart.
It's kind of funny. I was hoping that a couple of ex-Red Sox would come back: Lester and Miller. Instead, we wind up with Hanley Ramirez and Justin Masterson.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 11, 2014 20:33:53 GMT -5
Three possibilities here:
1. Masterson is terrible again and is moved to the BP. He'd probably be reasonable useful there if Farrell used him primarily against RHB. This would be Ok.
2. He's terrible as a starter, is demoted to the BP and sucks there, too. This would disappointing but not a disaster, since he's on a one-year deal.
3. He pitches well and holds down a rotation spot. This is obviously the best result. Somebody would give him a multi-year deal as a FA and we'd get a draft pick.
This is a good signing.
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