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Sox/Padres nearing WMB for Hanigan Swap
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 19, 2014 22:15:17 GMT -5
I'm always impressed by players that walk more than they strike out. You don't see that too often. To strike out 100 times in a season used to be looked at in a really bad way. Now? It's like it doesn't even matter. Now? You get on base in other ways and it doesn't matter how many times you strike out it seems.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 19, 2014 22:27:57 GMT -5
There's no chance that Ryan Hanigan ever becomes more than Ryan Hanigan. That slash line from last year is JBJ bad. JBJ: .198 / .265 / .266 (.198 TAv) Han: .218 / .318 / .324 (.248 TAv) Adjusting for position: JBJ: .188 / .254 / .264 Han: .228 / .332 / .336 If I adjusted for the Trop versus Fenway Park, it would be even bigger, of course. So let me just counter with an assertion that's equally inaccurate (within .001 of TAv), and folks can split the difference: That slash line from last year is Robinson Cano good.
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Post by oleary25 on Dec 19, 2014 22:51:38 GMT -5
I know I'm not alone in my thinking that we should've gotten another piece in this deal. Don't get me wrong Hanigan is a very good back up catcher , but Middlebrooks' power and upside is worth a lot in this market. Especially when you factor he's right handed. I know his career has been plagued by injuries but he's dirt cheap ( not arbitration eligible until 2016, and not able to file for free agency until 2019.)and a very good defender with an all star ceiling. Is This is the best they could get for him? I was hoping for a Bull pen arm or a prospect whose lost some luster for them Ala Casey Kelly. With that said this is a great move for Will Middlebrooks' career. Going to the NL will help where they predominantly throw fastballs. Even the cavernous Petco Park won't mitigate his pop. If he can stay healthy he'll hit 20 plus homers easily in that line up. I like Middlebrook's but I don't know if it was his health, mental make up, a lack of preparation, or just bad luck that caused him to not produce for the Red Sox. I think, to put it in his words he'll wake and rake there.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Dec 19, 2014 22:53:26 GMT -5
Gordon Edes @gordonedes · 5m 5 minutes ago Sox, Padres make Middlebrooks/Hanigan deal official Looks like it is now official per Edes. Link
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 19, 2014 23:01:57 GMT -5
I know I'm not alone in my thinking that we should've gotten another piece in this deal. Don't get me wrong Hanigan is a very good back up catcher , but Middlebrooks' power and upside is worth a lot in this market. Especially when you factor he's right handed. I know his career has been plagued by injuries but he's dirt cheap ( not arbitration eligible until 2016, and not able to file for free agency until 2019.)and a very good defender with an all star ceiling. Is This is the best they could get for him? I was hoping for a Bull pen arm or a prospect whose lost some luster for them Ala Casey Kelly. With that said this is a great move for Will Middlebrooks' career. Going to the NL will help where they predominantly throw fastballs. Even the cavernous Petco Park won't mitigate his pop. If he can stay healthy he'll hit 20 plus homers easily in that line up. I like Middlebrook's but I don't know if it was his health, mental make up, a lack of preparation, or just bad luck that caused him to not produce for the Red Sox. I think, to put it in his words he'll wake and rake there. List of relief pitchers who were more valuable last year than Ryan Hanigan would be as a regular catcher: Dellin Betances Wade Davis Even used strictly as a backup, he has 2/3 of the value that Miller or Koji had last year. But you shouldn't discount the value of having a first-division starter as a backup, because guys do get hurt.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 19, 2014 23:09:30 GMT -5
That slash line from last year is JBJ bad. No, it isn't even remotely close. A lot of people fall into this trap where they assume all bad hitters are equally bad, but Hanigan hit .218/.318/.324 (92 wRC+) last year, which is a huge, colossal step up from Bradley's .198/.265/.266, 47 wRC+. Catchers as a whole hit .245/.309/.380 last year, good for a 94 wRC+, so Hanigan was only slightly worse offensively than the average catcher. He hit better than Xander Bogaerts (82 wRC+), A.J. Pierzynski (71 wRC+), Grady Sizemore (70 wRC+), David Ross (72 wRC+), Christian Vazquez (71 wRC+), and was basically on par with Jonny feakin' Gomes (93 wRC+). When you take into account his defense (including pitch framing), I would not be surprised if Hanigan produces more value in the next four years in the major leagues than Middlebrooks does (which is how much team control WMB has left). That's unlikely just because WMB will get a lot more reps than Hanigan will, but Middlebrooks wouldn't have gotten those reps in Boston, which narrows the gap. I'd certainly bet that Hanigan produces more value on a rate basis (i.e., per 600 PAs) than Middlebrooks does over that stretch. Jeepers, you're right. Good catch. It proves two things: 1. I should look things up before posting them. 2. JBJ was REALLY REALLY REALLY bad at the plate in 2014.
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Post by oleary25 on Dec 19, 2014 23:55:01 GMT -5
I agree he's a very good back up and is capable of starting if Vazquez goes down. However I feel given the years of control of WMB, his upside, and cost of Hanigan we'd be able to get another piece for WMB.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 20, 2014 0:16:19 GMT -5
I agree he's a very good back up and is capable of starting if Vazquez goes down. However I feel given the years of control of WMB, his upside, and cost of Hanigan we'd be able to get another piece for WMB. He's been downside so long, it looks like upside to me. That may be all he ever delivers.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Dec 20, 2014 0:22:15 GMT -5
I really like this deal. I was one who really wanted him last year before TB got him.
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Post by zil on Dec 20, 2014 0:30:37 GMT -5
I agree he's a very good back up and is capable of starting if Vazquez goes down. However I feel given the years of control of WMB, his upside, and cost of Hanigan we'd be able to get another piece for WMB. Why? They got a starter quality catcher for a guy who has been completely lost at the plate for two seasons in both the majors and the minors. You don't land a piece like that for Middlebrooks without giving up some kind of perceived upside, especially when they've clearly already replaced him with Sandoval.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 20, 2014 1:14:20 GMT -5
In a vacuum perhaps the deal doesn't look good for the Sox, but in practicality and most likely reality the deal is pretty good for the Sox.
WMB could find himself and whack 30 homers I suppose, but the odds are good he'll struggle to hit .200 in San Diego, and/or he'll get hurt again. His BB/K ratio is never that good. There's a lot of good reasons why he couldn't sustain his 2012 performance, and if the Pads are looking to see if he could replicate it, it's certainly worth it to them to spare a backup catcher to see if WMB could realize his massive potential.
For the Sox, WMB was way down on the depth chart and in all likelihood, barring a major injury to Sandoval, would not likely be playing. Even if Panda got hurt, Holt or Cecchini would get the call over WMB, so for a player that had no future in Boston, the Sox get a very useful backup catcher who can play semi-regularly without being too exposed. At worst he buys time until the Sox have both Swihart and Vazquez on the roster. At best, he's productive and he can back up Swihart once he develops and he can render Vazquez a valuable trade chip.
The Sox have good use for him. In a lesser way it kind of reminds me of when the Sox got Rheal Cormier for Wil Cordero. Cordero was the better player, but given that he couldn't hack 2b or SS, and was a mediocre hitter for a LF, Cormier was the one that had more value for the Sox since he could be a key lefty out of the pen or spot start on occasion and be effective.
The deal in a small way reminds me of that concept.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 20, 2014 1:33:07 GMT -5
I think it's a terrible move. A young, power RH bat (one of the hottest commodities in baseball) for a backup C. I don't get it. If Middlebrooks didn't have options it makes sense, but send the guy to AAA, hopefully he can put together a healthy season and see what the results are. He definitely doesn't deserve to be in Boston on Opening Day, but if healthy, he could still be the .260/25 HR middle of the order force we thought he could be. I think Will made clear his desire or lack of to get better by refusing to play winter ball. I hope Will finally realizes his potential. At least he'll be near his wife.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 20, 2014 1:48:11 GMT -5
This is a good baseball trade! We got a good veteran catcher and they get a young player with upside that will most likely never show the promise he did in 2012. That being said I wish Middlebrooks the best and hopes he does well in the NL.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 20, 2014 1:57:34 GMT -5
This is a good baseball trade! We got a good veteran catcher and they get a young player with upside that will most likely never show the promise he did in 2012. That being said I wish Middlebrooks the best and hopes he does well in the NL. Preach on my man, that's exactly how I feel.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 20, 2014 3:53:12 GMT -5
add half of BP's career pitch framing per 120 games (=450 PA), This is, of course, kinder to Hanigan than it would have been had you taken the past 3 years weighted 3-2-1.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 20, 2014 4:16:44 GMT -5
Wouldn't Middlebrooks have had to clear waivers before he could be assigned outright to Pawtucket ? Don't get me wrong, I like this trade but, I was thinking there was a 'window' for Middlebrooks to get some Boston time because of Sandoval's splits.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2014 5:20:29 GMT -5
add half of BP's career pitch framing per 120 games (=450 PA), This is, of course, kinder to Hanigan than it would have been had you taken the past 3 years weighted 3-2-1. Good point -- he loses 0.2 WAR, but the next guy on the list, Wilson Ramos, loses even more, so he still ranks 11th, very probably. This does seem to be a skill that fades with age (well, based on him, Ross, and Jose Molina).
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 20, 2014 6:08:20 GMT -5
Wouldn't Middlebrooks have had to clear waivers before he could be assigned outright to Pawtucket ? Don't get me wrong, I like this trade but, I was thinking there was a 'window' for Middlebrooks to get some Boston time because of Sandoval's splits. He has one option left.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 20, 2014 12:24:52 GMT -5
I know I'm not alone in my thinking that we should've gotten another piece in this deal. Don't get me wrong Hanigan is a very good back up catcher , but Middlebrooks' power and upside is worth a lot in this market. Especially when you factor he's right handed. I know his career has been plagued by injuries but he's dirt cheap ( not arbitration eligible until 2016, and not able to file for free agency until 2019.)and a very good defender with an all star ceiling. Is This is the best they could get for him? I was hoping for a Bull pen arm or a prospect whose lost some luster for them Ala Casey Kelly. With that said this is a great move for Will Middlebrooks' career. Going to the NL will help where they predominantly throw fastballs. Even the cavernous Petco Park won't mitigate his pop. If he can stay healthy he'll hit 20 plus homers easily in that line up. I like Middlebrook's but I don't know if it was his health, mental make up, a lack of preparation, or just bad luck that caused him to not produce for the Red Sox. I think, to put it in his words he'll wake and rake there. I don't get this "In the NL, people wear hats on their feet and hamburgers eat people" stuff. It's the same game. Looking at the actual numbers, NL pitchers threw 59.1% fastballs, versus 56.4% for AL pitchers. That ~3% difference is pretty consistent over the years, and I'm guessing it's just because pitchers mostly see fastballs when they hit. Certainly a 3% difference doesn't point to a population of pitcher incapable of throwing breaking or offspeed pitches. if you can't hit a breaking ball, NL pitchers are just as capable of exploiting that as AL pitchers are, which is not good news for Will Middlebrooks.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 20, 2014 13:51:33 GMT -5
While Middlebrooks has light-tower power, hitting those light-towers in San Diego is a bit of a stretch. For those who've never visited Mission Bay, you might not have a feel for the way the fog lifts off that body of water onto the shoreline and up the draws that finger down through the city. The phenomenon even has it's own Wikipedia page. Once evening falls, it's very difficult to lift a ball through that moist air. Petco is just a few blocks from the harbor and it richly deserves its status as one of the toughest offensive environments in the majors. That said, he'll play a few of his games in much better parks such as Coors in Denver, and Chase in Phoenix. That will help, but he needs to have much better pitch recognition than he's shown with the Sox. Watching him wave at sliders that were feet off the plate was a psychically painful experience if you're a baseball fan.
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Post by danr on Dec 20, 2014 14:37:06 GMT -5
Yes, Norm, I agree with everything you say. To stay in the majors, Middlebrooks either has to develop better pitch recognition, or become Johnny Gomes.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 20, 2014 15:35:00 GMT -5
“@jmastrodonato: Damn, Ryan Hanigan is mega prepared for this conference call. Already breaking down Masterson’s splits and Buchholz’s pitch mix.”
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Dec 20, 2014 16:07:07 GMT -5
The thing I might be worried about with Vazquez is totally 21st century.
He is SO GOOD at what he does, and it's becoming so universally recognized so rapidly, that I have to believe that the major league umpires are among those tuning in to Vazquez's talents. Is it possible that he could become a victim of his own greatness at framing? That is, umpires are going to start unconsciously calling close pitches balls more frequently when they see any movement with his glove, or even when they don't see movement, knowing that he has not just the reputation of being able to create lots of unjustified strikes, but there is actually data to back it up.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 20, 2014 17:19:24 GMT -5
The thing I might be worried about with Vazquez is totally 21st century. He is SO GOOD at what he does, and it's becoming so universally recognized so rapidly, that I have to believe that the major league umpires are among those tuning in to Vazquez's talents. Is it possible that he could become a victim of his own greatness at framing? That is, umpires are going to start unconsciously calling close pitches balls more frequently when they see any movement with his glove, or even when they don't see movement, knowing that he has not just the reputation of being able to create lots of unjustified strikes, but there is actually data to back it up. I wouldn't worry about that. Umps are going to call what they see not what they think they should have seen. Just my opinion.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 20, 2014 17:48:30 GMT -5
The thing I might be worried about with Vazquez is totally 21st century. He is SO GOOD at what he does, and it's becoming so universally recognized so rapidly, that I have to believe that the major league umpires are among those tuning in to Vazquez's talents. Is it possible that he could become a victim of his own greatness at framing? That is, umpires are going to start unconsciously calling close pitches balls more frequently when they see any movement with his glove, or even when they don't see movement, knowing that he has not just the reputation of being able to create lots of unjustified strikes, but there is actually data to back it up. I agree with you. I think at some point there could be blowback. I raised this very issue a while ago on this site. No one wants to be duped and when reviews of ball/strike calls are done for each umpire, a given catcher's prowess at "framing" (an interesting term) has to come into play. In a way I liken framing to flopping in basketball or feigning injury in soccer. The underlying premise is to deceive the observer. No one likes to be intentionally deceived, despite framing being an accepted part of baseball. Basketball dealt with deception by devising penalties for faking. But at present, even if there is some counter effect from framing, I don't think that it will be significant unless unduly blatant.
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