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Red Sox reportedly re-sign Craig Breslow for $2m
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 19, 2014 21:02:41 GMT -5
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 2m2 minutes ago Breslow signing with Red Sox for $2 mill one year
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 19, 2014 21:04:25 GMT -5
Sox sign Breslow for $2M on a one year deal. Low risk. If he sucks, they cut him. If he gets back to 2012 form it could be a steal, even if he gets back to '13 form, it's fine
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Post by jmei on Dec 19, 2014 21:10:08 GMT -5
I wouldn't have offered him much more than the major league minimum, but I think Britton should bounce back and could be a league-averagish reliever this year.
My guess at the counter-move would be Britton DFAed.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Dec 19, 2014 21:48:59 GMT -5
I don't like this signing.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 19, 2014 21:52:54 GMT -5
No comment. If we dfa Britton that's a mistake. That kid deserves a shot. I must be missing something when he was up with the Sox I liked what I saw. The problem with Breslow is Farrell loves the veterans and he will use this guy as much as possible.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 19, 2014 22:05:55 GMT -5
No comment. If we dfa Britton that's a mistake. That kid deserves a shot. I must be missing something when he was up with the Sox I liked what I saw. The problem with Breslow is Farrell loves the veterans and he will use this guy as much as possible. He learned that nasty habit from watching Francona ignore the kids mostly all those years and trot out useless veterans, such as Billy Hall, Darnell McDonald and others throughout the years. Whenever in doubt? Send in the no talent retread, or finished veteran. Never mind the kid at Pawtucket that might need a look and could do no worse for a week or 2 as a fillin for an injury. Agree on the Breslow sign, not necessarily for Britton as think he was doomed over the winter anyway as a roster casualty. Would have liked to have seen either Hembree/Escobar, or whoever somebody else cuts loose before season starts as the other lefty. Probably cheaper than 2m also.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 19, 2014 22:07:29 GMT -5
I think Craig is gone as the move
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Dec 19, 2014 22:10:16 GMT -5
I wouldn't have offered him much more than the major league minimum, but I think Britton should bounce back and could be a league-averagish reliever this year. My guess at the counter-move would be Britton DFAed. If we expose Britton he's going to get claimed. Hopefully, there's another move coming tonight. Wouldn't Butler be the better choice. If Middlebrooks leaves the roster in exchange for Hanigan, Butler would be a catching spot they don't need on the roster. If the Middlebrooks deal doesn't go through, they are still going to find a catcher other than Butler.
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Post by draft37 on Dec 19, 2014 22:17:45 GMT -5
I would highly assume Butler being DFA'd is the corresponding move.
While I know this re-signing will irk a lot of people, the team did not have a proven left handed relief pitcher. Tommy Layne and Drake Britton do not have the track record that Breslow has. Breslow was not great last year, but posted impressive numbers the two years prior and is still young enough to bounce back.
I prefer this signing immensely over signing a top RP name for a multi-year contract.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 19, 2014 22:23:32 GMT -5
I think Craig is gone as the move Why?
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 19, 2014 22:26:37 GMT -5
I think Craig is gone as the move Why? Just a hunch.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 19, 2014 22:32:20 GMT -5
“@bradfo: Also of note regarding Breslow deal: no incentives; Red Sox likely won’t announce until after Dec. 28 due to 40 man moves”
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Dec 20, 2014 0:24:57 GMT -5
Man I really wanted to see Cotts or Britton.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 20, 2014 1:17:16 GMT -5
I think you're imagining a roster situation where the Sox carry 12 pitchers, which means a seven man pen of Uehara, Tazawa, Mujica, Varvaro, Layne, Breslow, and most likely Workman. That would mean a four man bench of Hanigan, Holt, Nava, and Victorino, and would make Allen Craig somebody who doesn't make it out of spring training with the Sox given that he'd be redundant to the function Nava would have. I have a hunch you're correct here.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 20, 2014 1:18:58 GMT -5
As far as Breslow goes, I'll always be thankful for what he did in 2013, not only in the regular season, but against Tampa (Game 4) and Detroit.
He ran out of gas against St. Louis and seemed to have never recovered in 2014. I'm afraid the guy is toast and I wish the Sox would find another left option instead.
I hope Breslow proves me wrong. He certainly is a likable guy who is easy to root for.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 20, 2014 1:21:02 GMT -5
I wouldn't have offered him much more than the major league minimum, but I think Britton should bounce back and could be a league-averagish reliever this year. My guess at the counter-move would be Britton DFAed. If we expose Britton he's going to get claimed. Hopefully, there's another move coming tonight. I think they will let Layne go. Layne has a long track record of not being able to get righties out. Left handed relievers who can't get righties out aren't valuable no matter how good they are versus lefties. Btw I like the signing. Breslow was clearly gassed from the 2013 playoff run. I think he'll bounce back. You cant go into the year with Layne and Britton as your lefties.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 20, 2014 3:27:37 GMT -5
“@bradfo: Also of note regarding Breslow deal: no incentives; Red Sox likely won’t announce until after Dec. 28 due to 40 man moves” That kind of says the Sox are working on something. Strange that they specified a date. LOL, how do you find out if the Mariners signed any draftees on June 27th ?
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 20, 2014 4:25:43 GMT -5
Meh.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2014 5:09:30 GMT -5
If we expose Britton he's going to get claimed. Hopefully, there's another move coming tonight. I think they will let Layne go. Layne has a long track record of not being able to get righties out. Left handed relievers who can't get righties out aren't valuable no matter how good they are versus lefties.Well, that's obvious nonsense at the logical level, at the general level of evidence, and at the specific level of Layne's performance last year. He faced 28 RHB and indeed got pounded at .318 / .429 / .500 (his PawSox splits suggest he can do somewhat better). But he also faced 48 LHB and held them to .159 / .229 / .182, including 3 GDP. Overall, .212 / .303 / .288. And, yeah, that's who is: your classic lefty specialist. His 0.95 ERA is nonsense, because he was bad at inherited runners and got generous unearned runs, when he deserved half the blame. Adjust for those (something I don't think anyone does, amazingly enough), and you get a 2.89 ERA to go with his 3.08 FIP. That's a valuable reliever who can be even more valuable if used in a strict LOOGY role. Now, whether he comes out of ST as one of the 12 most valuable relievers on the team is indeed a good question. But a deadly LOOGY would be a more valuable 12th man in the pen than a mediocre setup guy.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2014 7:26:54 GMT -5
So they resigned the guy who sucked last year and crapped himself when the heat got turned up in the 2013 World Series.... Can't say it's the addition I was hoping for. This bullpen is highly suspect, the biggest weakness I see right now. The rotation could work if they had a Royals like pen. Andrew Miller or Wade Davis would be nice back there.
I have a bad feeling that two big story lines will be Koji and Papi being their ages. Good news is both will be back in 2016 too.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2014 7:35:19 GMT -5
So I posted before reading the thread... I know I know... My bad.
To those who said he was out of gas, I call BS. First he was good until the World Series. As a relief pitcher who throws an inning or so, you wo t run out of gas between the ALCS and WS. It was the giant load he crapped in his pants, which he admitted to in post game interview. He couldn't throw strikes or to bases. The game " sped up on him was what he said. Then Farrell stopped using him because he could t handle it.
I'd pass unless it was a deal that was a minor league contract with camp invite. I wouldn't even use the 40 spot on him.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 20, 2014 9:06:48 GMT -5
I think they will let Layne go. Layne has a long track record of not being able to get righties out. Left handed relievers who can't get righties out aren't valuable no matter how good they are versus lefties.Well, that's obvious nonsense at the logical level, at the general level of evidence, and at the specific level of Layne's performance last year. He faced 28 RHB and indeed got pounded at .318 / .429 / .500 (his PawSox splits suggest he can do somewhat better). But he also faced 48 LHB and held them to .159 / .229 / .182, including 3 GDP. Overall, .212 / .303 / .288. And, yeah, that's who is: your classic lefty specialist. His 0.95 ERA is nonsense, because he was bad at inherited runners and got generous unearned runs, when he deserved half the blame. Adjust for those (something I don't think anyone does, amazingly enough), and you get a 2.89 ERA to go with his 3.08 FIP. That's a valuable reliever who can be even more valuable if used in a strict LOOGY role. Now, whether he comes out of ST as one of the 12 most valuable relievers on the team is indeed a good question. But a deadly LOOGY would be a more valuable 12th man in the pen than a mediocre setup guy. I dunno, while I agree with your last sentence as a retrospective point, I think the volatility of relievers makes it less valid as a matter of bullpen construction. You don't really know with any high degree of confidence who is going to be mediocre and who will be good in any particular year when it comes to non-elite set up guys, so you're limiting your options too much if you get a guy you're pretty sure can never be more than a LOOGY. You need lefties in the pen, but I think it might be a better use of the roster slots to get more guys who have a chance to be good over multiple batters than someone whom you have confidence can be a LOOGY. I was thinking about this at some point recently because it doesn't seem like the Sox really believe in the LOOGY, either in bullpen construction or usage. I admit to this being strictly an impression (I haven't investigated it), but I don't really remember the Sox bringing in a lefty for the one batter as a regular course of action ... maybe my impression is wrong because the Sox just happen to have had lights-out lefties who could also get righties out in Miller and (before last year) Breslow the last few years, or maybe I'm just flat wrong that they haven't used a guy in the true LOOGY role, but the research project is a little too daunting to me.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 20, 2014 9:44:02 GMT -5
This is one of those signings where to me, there isn't a whole lot to get fired about about either way. The Sox needed another LHP for the bullpen, and on a quick look at Cots the other names out there on the FA market included Phil Coke, Joe Thatcher and Scott Downs (who had a similarly awful year last season, and is 5 years older than Breslow, so not a singing I would have been even "meh" about). If he goes back to being the (very rough math) 3.35 FIP pitcher he was his first season and a half in Boston, great. If he stinks through June, he's gone for very little monetary "risk".
There also isn't a lot of opportunity risk here. Drake Britton just simply isn't ready to pitch in the major leagues. Sure, he looked fine in 7 games last season up in Boston, but minor league numbers count too - especially once taking familiarty of the hitters he's faced into account. In Pawtucket he had a 5.86ERA (from a 5.83FIP), and he also walked more batters per 9 (5.86) than he struck out (5.71). There is no universe where the Sox should have even remotely thought of depending of him as someone to break camp in the major leagues.
For the record, I'm guessing that another outfielder packaged with another of the "Pawtucket depth" pitchers is the corresponding roster move, and hence why they're talking about not announcing it for over a week.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 20, 2014 15:09:23 GMT -5
Well, that's obvious nonsense at the logical level, at the general level of evidence, and at the specific level of Layne's performance last year. He faced 28 RHB and indeed got pounded at .318 / .429 / .500 (his PawSox splits suggest he can do somewhat better). But he also faced 48 LHB and held them to .159 / .229 / .182, including 3 GDP. Overall, .212 / .303 / .288. And, yeah, that's who is: your classic lefty specialist. His 0.95 ERA is nonsense, because he was bad at inherited runners and got generous unearned runs, when he deserved half the blame. Adjust for those (something I don't think anyone does, amazingly enough), and you get a 2.89 ERA to go with his 3.08 FIP. That's a valuable reliever who can be even more valuable if used in a strict LOOGY role. Now, whether he comes out of ST as one of the 12 most valuable relievers on the team is indeed a good question. But a deadly LOOGY would be a more valuable 12th man in the pen than a mediocre setup guy. I dunno, while I agree with your last sentence as a retrospective point, I think the volatility of relievers makes it less valid as a matter of bullpen construction. You don't really know with any high degree of confidence who is going to be mediocre and who will be good in any particular year when it comes to non-elite set up guys, so you're limiting your options too much if you get a guy you're pretty sure can never be more than a LOOGY. You need lefties in the pen, but I think it might be a better use of the roster slots to get more guys who have a chance to be good over multiple batters than someone whom you have confidence can be a LOOGY. I was thinking about this at some point recently because it doesn't seem like the Sox really believe in the LOOGY, either in bullpen construction or usage. I admit to this being strictly an impression (I haven't investigated it), but I don't really remember the Sox bringing in a lefty for the one batter as a regular course of action ... maybe my impression is wrong because the Sox just happen to have had lights-out lefties who could also get righties out in Miller and (before last year) Breslow the last few years, or maybe I'm just flat wrong that they haven't used a guy in the true LOOGY role, but the research project is a little too daunting to me. I think that it's been shown that lefties who are far below replacement level against righties are not worth a roster spot. Eric's analysis is full of holes. For starters the skill of getting a tough lefty out is one that is most useful in games that are close. Second there is a cost in that this type of player cannot throw nearly as many innings as an ordinary reliver. The rest of the pen has to pick up the slack which in turn could limit their effectiveness in the long run. Third he's using AAA numbers as a proxy. For a journeyman player such as Layne AAA numbers are irrelevant. Tommy Layne has long enough major league track record of suck against righties. There won't be enough high leverage situations versus lefties to make up for his lack of workload. So you cut him and go for the riskier but higher upside guy in Britton.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 20, 2014 15:44:58 GMT -5
Even if I hated Breslow, which I don't, I can't be that upset at a $2M signing. Even if we mailed a $2M check to Julio Lugo's retirement home.
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