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2015 HOF class; The line forms behind Pedro
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 27, 2014 0:03:23 GMT -5
bit.ly/1weXbriThe link will get you to a spread sheet being compiled by a guy named Ryan Thibs. He seems to be doing a good job of tracking the HOF election based on writers who have publicly declared their votes. As of now, he lists the votes of 72 writers and Mr. Pedro Jaime Martinez is on every ballot, a fact that somewhat renews my faith in civilization's future. Even the Big Unit isn't at 100 percent. Some idiot left him off his ballot. Pedro's showing is a great relief to me because in an earlier poll of writers (not all of them were voters) 30 of 40 said they would vote for him. That's exactly 75 percent. It put the fear of our Lord in me that Pedro might come up just short because of his relatively low career win total or the bias some voters have against first-time candidates. Other points of interest: - We could be headed for a five- or even six-member class. As of now, it would be Pedro, Johnson, Smoltz, Biggio and Piazza with Bagwell very much alive at 73.6 percent.
- Smoltz and Piazza would not only make it at their current pace, they would make it by a lot. They're at 89 and 86 percent respectively. That's quite a jump for Piazza, particularly in a year when the ballot is so crowded.
- Curt Schilling is also making a big jump, being named on 62.5 percent of the 72 ballots. That would seem to set him up nicely to get elected in 2016 or 2017, when there will not be a big influx of deserving first-time candidates.
- Bonds (51 percent) and Clemens (50 percent) are also making impressive gains. I read once that at least 25 percent of the voters are dead set against PED abusers getting in, forming sort of a firewall. But Bonds and Clemens have to be encouraged if they come in at 50 percent. They might, just might, have a shot.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 27, 2014 0:11:25 GMT -5
bit.ly/1weXbriThe link will get you to a spread sheet being compiled by a guy named Ryan Thibs. He seems to be doing a good job of tracking the HOF election based on writers who have publicly declared their votes. As of now, he lists the votes of 72 writers and Mr. Pedro Jaime Martinez is on every ballot, a fact that somewhat renews my faith in civilization's future. Even the Big Unit isn't at 100 percent. Some idiot left him off his ballot. Pedro's showing is a great relief to me because in an earlier poll of writers (not all of them were voters) 30 of 40 said they would vote for him. That's exactly 75 percent. It put the fear of our Lord in me that Pedro might come up just short because of his relatively low career win total or the bias some voters have against first-time candidates. Other points of interest: - We could be headed for a five- or even six-member class. As of now, it would be Pedro, Johnson, Smoltz, Biggio and Piazza with Bagwell very much alive at 73.6 percent.
- Smoltz and Piazza would not only make it at their current pace, they would make it by a lot. They're at 89 and 86 percent respectively. That's quite a jump for Piazza, particularly in a year when the ballot is so crowded.
- Curt Schilling is also making a big jump, being named on 62.5 percent of the 72 ballots. That would seem to set him up nicely to get elected in 2016 or 2017, when there will not be a big influx of deserving first-time candidates.
- Bonds (51 percent) and Clemens (50 percent) are also making impressive gains. I read once that at least 25 percent of the voters are dead set against PED abusers getting in, forming sort of a firewall. But Bonds and Clemens have to be encouraged if they come in at 50 percent. They might, just might, have a shot.
Pedro is not on every ballot. One unknown person left him off
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 27, 2014 0:21:08 GMT -5
I'm not seeing that, 72 ballots, 72 votes.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 27, 2014 0:22:13 GMT -5
Pedro is not on every ballot. One unknown person left him off Link? The Thibs list shows our guy at 100 percent. I was hoping CHB would leave Pedro off just so I'd have another reason to hate the skunk. But he has already declared his ballot and he's voting for Pedro.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 27, 2014 0:41:34 GMT -5
Pedro is not on every ballot. One unknown person left him off Link? The Thibs list shows our guy at 100 percent. I was hoping CHB would leave Pedro off just so I'd have another reason to hate the skunk. But he has already declared his ballot and he's voting for Pedro. Check out baseball think factory. They are tracking them all
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 27, 2014 0:42:54 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 27, 2014 0:45:36 GMT -5
He is not gonna get 100% as he should but he'll be elected easily. Whomever leaves him off should feel ashamed.
It's gonna be a national holiday in DR.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 27, 2014 0:51:12 GMT -5
He is not gonna get 100% as he should but he'll be elected easily. Whomever leaves him off should feel ashamed.It's gonna be a national holiday in DR. No, whoever leaves him off should feel fearful. I'm not messin' around here. The BBTF list does show Pedro at just below 100 percent. Ironically, it contains a link to the Thibs spreadsheet, which shows him getting every vote that's been disclosed so far.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 27, 2014 4:31:28 GMT -5
Good to see. The Hall of Fame needs to start Electing players that deserve to be there and stop all this crazy crap. Pedro should be 100% Randy Johnson should be 100% Smoltz, Piazza, Biggio and Bagwell should be elected. I also believe that Bonds, Schilling and Clemens should be elected. If you don't elect these players your going to hurt borderline players chances.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 27, 2014 7:21:22 GMT -5
He is not gonna get 100% as he should but he'll be elected easily. Whomever leaves him off should feel ashamed.It's gonna be a national holiday in DR. No, whoever leaves him off should feel fearful. I'm not messin' around here. The BBTF list does show Pedro at just below 100 percent. Ironically, it contains a link to the Thibs spreadsheet, which shows him getting every vote that's been disclosed so far. There are probably more than ten guys on the ballot who deserve to be elected. Letting Pedro off the ballot, gives that extra player a chance. Pedro is a shoo-in anyway.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Dec 27, 2014 7:44:38 GMT -5
The HOF process is a joke, particularly when you have voters such as
Ballou (no Schilling or Edgar Martinez)
Cafardo (voted for Kent and Trammel)
Maserotti (no Schilling and only voted for 5 guys)
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 27, 2014 9:01:22 GMT -5
The HOF process is a joke, particularly when you have voters such as Ballou (no Schilling or Edgar Martinez) Cafardo (voted for Kent and Trammel) Maserotti (no Schilling and only voted for 5 guys) I think most of that's at least somewhat defensible ... except for maybe Edgar Martinez. But Trammel's very underrated (if you go by bWAR, he's 70.4 for his career to Jeter's 71.8), and I'm not all that big of a Schilling guy. I mean, he belongs in the HoF, I guess, but I'm fine with the distinction between a "first ballot" HoF guy and someone like Schilling. Although I'll admit to being a little biased against Schilling because I can't stand the guy. Anyway, not saying I agree with those choices, but they generally aren't crazy. Leaving Pedro off, though ... that's grounds for losing your voting privilege forever.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Dec 27, 2014 10:14:28 GMT -5
And then ..... there's Pete Rose.
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Post by jmei on Dec 27, 2014 10:16:08 GMT -5
Here's the thing: using public ballots to estimate total HOF voting results will overestimate everyone's chances because of sampling bias. Writers who make their ballots public are likely to be the writers who approach the endeavor thoughtfully and responsibly. The act of releasing a public ballot opens them up to criticism, so the guys who do so generally put more time and effort into making sure their ballots are "right." Meanwhile, the folks who don't release their ballot inevitably included the folks who don't do their research or are enormous homers or otherwise submit those ballots that make you wonder what they were thinking.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 27, 2014 10:20:33 GMT -5
Here's the thing: using public ballots to estimate total HOF voting results will overestimate everyone's chances because of sampling bias. Writers who make their ballots public are likely to be the writers who approach the endeavor thoughtfully and responsibly. The act of releasing a public ballot opens them up to criticism, so the guys who do so generally put more time and effort into making sure their ballots are "right." Meanwhile, the folks who don't release their ballot inevitably included the folks who don't do their research or are enormous homers or otherwise submit those ballots that make you wonder what they were thinking. Or are long ago retired. HOF voting is a lifetime privilege.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 27, 2014 11:13:59 GMT -5
The ballots should not be secret. They are freakin writers, they should be able to defend any choice or omission.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 27, 2014 11:50:55 GMT -5
The ballots should not be secret. They are freakin writers, they should be able to defend any choice or omission. The lifetime vote and the secret ballot are really ridiculous. What's really amazing is how many people have turned to criticizing the ten player limit or the new ten year eligibility limit. It's the electorate, stupid. There should be no need to vote on fifteen guys a year or to take a decade and a half to suss out a guy's career. Jack Morris's Hall of Fame worthiness is not the Higgs freaking Boson, it should not take decades of research to return a definitive answer. Any reasonably competent group of baseball analysts should be able to come up with an answer on almost all of these players in a single afternoon, including a generous lunch break.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 27, 2014 12:50:52 GMT -5
Here's the thing: using public ballots to estimate total HOF voting results will overestimate everyone's chances because of sampling bias. Writers who make their ballots public are likely to be the writers who approach the endeavor thoughtfully and responsibly. The act of releasing a public ballot opens them up to criticism, so the guys who do so generally put more time and effort into making sure their ballots are "right." Meanwhile, the folks who don't release their ballot inevitably included the folks who don't do their research or are enormous homers or otherwise submit those ballots that make you wonder what they were thinking. This is a good point. In looking quickly at the tallies of declared ballots Thibs put together in past years I noticed that some candidates had higher percentages in the Thib tallies than they ended up with in the actual voting. I thought about it briefly and basically came to the same conclusion as you. The dopes who don't take their voting responsibility seriously are probably less likely to make their ballots public. OTOH, nobody's a bigger jackass than CHB and he made his ballot public, so maybe that shoots down our theory.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 27, 2014 13:05:22 GMT -5
OTOH, nobody's a bigger jackass than CHB and he made his ballot public, so maybe that shoots down our theory. One would hope so, but...
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 27, 2014 13:10:12 GMT -5
The important thing to remember with Shaughnessy is that he's a troll, too. He's looking for a reaction. He might not be looking to defend not voting for Biggio (or whoever), but he does like to revel in the criticism for it. It's a very different mindset then someone who got a BBWAA membership back in '72 and hasn't written about the game since about then. That writer is likely protective of the fact he gets a vote but doesn't want the scrutiny for it.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 27, 2014 14:16:26 GMT -5
Why are people now voting for Clemens and Bonds, but not McGwire?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 27, 2014 15:19:40 GMT -5
Why are people now voting for Clemens and Bonds, but not McGwire? Because a popular school of thought among some writers is that Clemens and Bonds were already HOF worthy BEFORE they started cheating as opposed to McGwire and a guy like Sosa who were clearly not HOFers waiting to happen until they started cheating - according to the timelines the writers think they know. I'm not personally backing the theory, just saying that's a school of thought out there among some of the writers. But I guess your question is Why NOW? Maybe to unclog the ballot so that they don't linger out there for years to come? Who knows? I would think with some of the younger writers coming into vote, they might be inclined to think I have no idea who cheated and when, but we know these two guys were the absolute best of the era, tainted as it may be.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 27, 2014 15:20:21 GMT -5
Why are people now voting for Clemens and Bonds, but not McGwire? I think McGwire has a combination of biases working against him. He not only has the scarlet "S" attached to him, but he's also a low-average, high OBP-guy. I think the perception is all he ever did was hit home runs and that was just the steroids. What's interesting about this is that McGwire works as a hitting coach now, which fits a pattern of the media writing off talent because of an association with steroids while the industry itself tends not to.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 27, 2014 16:52:26 GMT -5
Wtf??
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 27, 2014 16:54:53 GMT -5
This topic is so true and I go a step further just like that stupid MVP ripoff, You are just hating if you leave him off. Consider the fact he pitched in the steroid era also.
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