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Wade Miley in the American League - What can we expect?
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 29, 2014 23:55:30 GMT -5
(2) Of his career 499 Ks, 74 (roughly 15%) of Miley's Ks have come against pitchers. Last year, Miley had 183 Ks. Reduced by 15%, a more realistic expectation in the American League is that he might finish the season with approximately 155 Ks - A still respectable total for a middle to back of the rotation starting pitcher. Man, that math does NOT work like that. Of course he would lose a percentage by not facing these pitchers, but you can't just assume he wouldn't strike anyone he faces instead of the pitcher.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 30, 2014 0:41:47 GMT -5
Because that projects him to throw 173 innings, for whatever reason. His K/9 is right around his career average. And a decrease in strikeouts is to be expected, but the important thing is that you can't subtract his percentage of strikeouts against pitchers for his career from the numbers in the year he got his most strikeouts and use that for a projection.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 30, 2014 9:09:20 GMT -5
I'm not sure what is going on here with the math.
1. His avg/obp/slg is inflated by a horrible team defense. The Diamondbacks gave up a league high .316 BABIP last year, while the National League was at roughly .299 as a whole. Miley was at .321. He was much better the last two years, and his slash line was similarly better. This is one of the many reasons that projections are not simply looking at career stats.
2. He has struck-out roughly 17% of the non-pitchers he faced for his career, but some of that is brought down by his rookie year where he struck out only 13.8% of non-pitchers he faced. Steamer projects him to be at 18% in the AL. That would be below "average" for a starting pitcher in 2014, but remember that b/c of selection bias MLB is Lake Wobegon, where everyone who ends up pitching a lot is above average, and teams cycle through the fungible parts.
3. He'll likely be projected by most systems (steamer, zips, a simple monkey, whatever) to be around the 70th-85th best starting pitcher by FIP. His overall value will likely be slightly higher b/c he'll be projected to give a few more innings than most starting pitchers in that tier. For example, his 3.98 (steamer) projected FIP for 2015 would have him around 73 (tied with 2014's Wade Miley) compared to 2014 when looking at pitchers with 140+innings, but limit it to 180+ innings and you'll have him at #51.
In other words, he'll be projected to be a solid "good not great" pitcher with a lot of inning capability. If you call that a "back-end" or "middle" or whatever I don't really care. I'll think of him as something like the likely 65th to 80th best starting pitcher in baseball in 2015. I don't think most have billed him as much better than that, but perhaps I just haven't been reading the right hyperbole.
Finally, they have essentially 3 team-options for ages 28-30, and unless we see a significantly different profile I'd expect him to be on the Sox for roughly that period of time, but not much more.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 30, 2014 9:31:54 GMT -5
You can expect Miley to take the ball every turn and give the team a chance to win most of those times. And really, what more do you want? He should bring stability with some additional upside. He is a good addition to the staff both on the field (see reliability) and on the trade front. He gives the team a younger cost controlled arm to include in a deal or he frees up someone like Kelly to be included.
I wasn't excited about the pick up but it's really grown on me. I like Rubby, but Miley makes a ton of sense and was a very good get. Just realize what he is and don't expect him to be more than that because we yearn for an ace. Same goes for Porcello btw. Those of you talking yourself into him being a number 1/2 starter aren't being fair to him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 30, 2014 10:26:37 GMT -5
Ace of MLB Stats ?@aceballstats 25m25 minutes ago RT "@leonmckanas: @aceballstats NL is way easier to pitch in than the AL"
Since 1973, ERA 6.89% higher in games with. 5.26% higher in 2014.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 30, 2014 12:04:21 GMT -5
Some of these so-called SABRE rattlers should get off their duffs and come up with statistical adjustments for league and park effects -- not to mention defense! -- so we don't have to fumble around with back of the envelope math.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 30, 2014 12:18:14 GMT -5
Some of these so-called SABRE rattlers should get off their duffs and come up with statistical adjustments for league and park effects -- not to mention defense! -- so we don't have to fumble around with back of the envelope math. Yeah really. This thread belongs in a late 70s Bill James Baseball Abstract for its innovation.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 30, 2014 13:28:06 GMT -5
According to them, he'll be somewhere around the 80th to 90th best pitcher in baseball. ? Its 51st in fWAR, and about 65th in bWAR. How do you get the 80-90th best?
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 30, 2014 13:39:45 GMT -5
According to that metric alone, Jacob deGrom is going to be the 91st best pitcher in baseball with an fWAR of 1.3
Right. That is basically b/c projection systems will want to see deGrom do it some more before they buy in, and because Citi and the NL subtract a lot of value. What metric did you use to determine that he'd be the 80th-90th best pitcher when you looked at Fangraphs' projections? Perhaps if we can speak the same language, we'll advance the conversation somewhat.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 30, 2014 14:15:37 GMT -5
It doesn't sound like anyone disagrees here and I'm not sure what you guys are arguing about. Miley should give the Sox around 200 innings with an ERA roughly around 4. Is there anyone who thinks he's going to be significantly worse or better than this?
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 30, 2014 15:22:39 GMT -5
Looking at projected ERA, WHIP, K/9 and FIP, I was actually being a little generous in where Miley stacks up relative to other starters. According to FanGraphs, among pitchers projected to start 20 or more games in 2015, Miley is projected to rank 105th in ERA, 112th in WHIP, 96th in K/9 and 75th in FIP. That supposedly adds up to a starting pitcher ranked 51st in WAR. Yes, right - the difference b/w 75th in FIP (which just weights the k/9, bb/9, hr/9 properly, and ignores h/9 -- so not sure why you'd downgrade him based on being "96th in k/9," for example) and 51st in WAR is that he is projected to pitch a lot of innings at a good-not-great ERA/FIP, while the other folks with a better FIP are projected to pitch fewer innings (or are doing the same FIP in an easier pitching environment). Think of fWAR for starting pitchers as basically FIP times IP (that isn't it exactly, but its good enough for this conversation). Nothing magical with it.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 30, 2014 21:09:37 GMT -5
Fangraphs has Miley with a 4.21 ERA, more hits than innings, 58 walks and the aforementioned 134 Ks in 173 innings. According to them, he'll be somewhere around the 80th to 90th best pitcher in baseball. Disappointingly, Clay Buchholz is targeted to have almost the precise same numbers. I think Miley pitches slightly better than these numbers indicate simply because the infield defense, sans shortstop, is soooo much better than what he had behind him at Arizona. Once he learns to trust our infield defense, I am thinking it is going to affect the way he attacks hitters. Not sure he had the ability to use the entire arsenal in Arizona due to the leaky defense.
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soph
New Member
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Post by soph on Dec 30, 2014 21:48:38 GMT -5
I wasn't excited about the pick up but it's really grown on me. I like Rubby, but Miley makes a ton of sense and was a very good get. Just realize what he is and don't expect him to be more than that because we yearn for an ace. Same goes for Porcello btw. Those of you talking yourself into him being a number 1/2 starter aren't being fair to him.
This....Throw strikes, give defense chance to make plays, let offense out score the opponent.....
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Post by jmei on Dec 30, 2014 22:23:47 GMT -5
Looking at projected ERA, WHIP, K/9 and FIP, I was actually being a little generous in where Miley stacks up relative to other starters. According to FanGraphs, among pitchers projected to start 20 or more games in 2015, Miley is projected to rank 105th in ERA, 112th in WHIP, 96th in K/9 and 75th in FIP. That supposedly adds up to a starting pitcher ranked 51st in WAR. Yes, right - the difference b/w 75th in FIP (which just weights the k/9, bb/9, hr/9 properly, and ignores h/9 -- so not sure why you'd downgrade him based on being "96th in k/9," for example) and 51st in WAR is that he is projected to pitch a lot of innings at a good-not-great ERA/FIP, while the other folks with a better FIP are projected to pitch fewer innings (or are doing the same FIP in an easier pitching environment). Think of fWAR for starting pitchers as basically FIP times IP (that isn't it exactly, but its good enough for this conversation). Nothing magical with it. I agree with this 100%, but wanted to also emphasize that park and league adjustments are a big reason why his projected WAR is higher than his projected FIP. Just ranking by FIP ignores the very park and league-related adjustments that this whole exercise was meant to elucidate.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Dec 30, 2014 22:40:00 GMT -5
It doesn't sound like anyone disagrees here and I'm not sure what you guys are arguing about. Miley should give the Sox around 200 innings with an ERA roughly around 4. Is there anyone who thinks he's going to be significantly worse or better than this? I would expect maybe a little more, like a 3.75 ERA. His xFIP the past few years would suggest so
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Post by libertine on Dec 31, 2014 22:48:52 GMT -5
All in all I expect the numbers to be about the same. He is a groundball pitcher coming to a team whose IF defense will be VERY strong and from a team that didn't employ shift defenses, which the Sox do quite effectively. Pitching to stronger AL lineups will probably be a drag on his numbers. But overall in my thinking I think it will all be a wash and his numbers should be comparable...
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Post by clutper on Jan 28, 2015 21:42:52 GMT -5
In approximately ten months we'll be penciling Wade Miley into the top half of the rotation and forgetting about him. The D'backs defense and Chase Field homerun rate belie what he does well: eat innings, induce outs at a better than average rate, work fast (personal opinion). His xFIP, believed one of the better prognosticators of future performance, is a shiny 3.50. He's a worm killer, which suits flyball friendly Fenway just fine. Groundball pitchers, to we of the wall ball, are something of a built-in market inefficiency. Plus he's limited walks in the past and his strikeout numbers climbed to 8.18 per nine last season. A couple things stick out when you look over his plate discipline numbers. Though his chase rate has middled around 30%, hitters are making contact outside the zone less and less frequently: from 75% of the time in cup of coffee year to 70%, then 68%, finally all the way to 61% last season. His swinging strike rate is in line with NL norms, and he's pounded the zone more than your average NL pitcher, especially this year on the first pitch. (Some of this is attributable to Miguel Montero's pitch framing, but he stands to improve markedly in this facet anyhow courtesy of Vazquez.) The rest of these numbers are tidily average. Miley's 21% strikeout rate, then, wouldn't seem to be a mirage. The National League as a whole struck out 20.5% of the time with similar PITCHf/x-ipherals. What makes me giddy is the walk rate. Despite the data, Miley lost 8.7% of hitters last season in a league that walked 7.6% of the time. Given that he's traditionally thrown even more strikes in his career, and given that he'll work with the very best catcher in the game, the 8.2 Ks/9 from 2014 and 2.9 BBs/9 from 2013 appear to be most indicative of his true talent level going forward. The transition to the American League is uphill, but overstated: 3.50 xFIP posted across 200 innings last year seems like a decent median projection. He's likely to induce more popups next year. His slider, change, and curve are all good swing-and-miss offerings, so his ceiling may be higher yet. He also holds baserunners extremely well—eight runs above average in his career—which will complement CV's arm tool in a dead ball league that reversed a three year trend by attempting 99 more steals last season. Neither Rubby de la Rosa nor Allen Webster especially will likely amount to better rotation members. Either could thrive in a relief role, but that's the cost of doing business when you acquire a serviceable #2 with years of control.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:54:41 GMT -5
Personally, a bulldog mentality in the Jake Peavy mold. Which will win him favor with his teammates and us fans. The bettee infield defense of cpurse will help, and he's trending upward it looks like, almost in the porcello mold (I don't claim Miley to be Rick porcello). I am always wary however, of pitchers coming from facing the Padres and pitcheese for three years. I'm sure the Dodgers and rockie offenses cancel that ouT somewhat. I look for him to be everything we wanted and hoped double to be. That reliable lefty who doesn't walk people incessantly and goes after guys, given his good pitch mix and knowledge of good strikes and bad strikes, good balls, etc. Vasquez may assist his slightly below average walk rate. The media market may affect him, but it seems like it's so difficult to judge players coming from that coast/league to bostons. Look at the Nomar, arroyo, beckett and Peavy resurrections as of late.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2015 23:47:31 GMT -5
Good grief. I knew the guy wasn't going to be able to replicate what he did last year. But, this is getting ridiculous.
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hank
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Post by hank on Apr 27, 2015 11:55:02 GMT -5
I'll bet Ben would like a mulligan on that extension
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 27, 2015 12:47:45 GMT -5
Miley isn't pitching like Miley. His results probably would be better if he were, and I'm not ready to say that he won't.
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Post by johnmark on Apr 27, 2015 13:08:31 GMT -5
Look at Miley's minor league stats. He got promoted because of need more than ability it would seem. Compare his 23-24 year old years to Johnson. Although minors don't necessarily give complete picture, find me any stats where Miley is better than Johnson.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 13:13:39 GMT -5
I'll bet Ben would like a mulligan on that extension I doubt it. The extension had basically all the upside going to the Red Sox, the pay levels are those of a #5 starter, and the Sox were hoping to get a #3 instead. At that salary, it would be very easy to trade him back to a bad NL team if necessary. But if RDLR keeps going the way he has, Cherington will certainly want a mulligan on the trade itself.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2015 14:21:30 GMT -5
I was pretty clear that I thought Miley was a bad get despite whatever park he was pitching in. Still - and I hate saying this - it's a little too early to bury the guy. Three more starts like this though and I'll warm-up the backhoe. And the contract does give him a certain Bronson Arroyo palatability, trade-wise (let's just not get Wily Mo Pena back this time. mmm-k?).
I also think what mgoetze said earlier about Sox minor leaguers blossoming elsewhere and questions about this regime integrating minor league talent bears some watching. I don't have an opinion either way right now, but we'll see.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 14:41:08 GMT -5
I also think what mgoetze said earlier about Sox minor leaguers blossoming elsewhere and questions about this regime integrating minor league talent bears some watching. I don't have an opinion either way right now, but we'll see. I recall the comment you're referring to, but it was not written by me.
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