nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 15:08:46 GMT -5
Yeah, April 26th is when you make sweeping judgments on players.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Apr 27, 2015 15:30:29 GMT -5
I'll bet Ben would like a mulligan on that extension I doubt it. The extension had basically all the upside going to the Red Sox, the pay levels are those of a #5 starter, and the Sox were hoping to get a #3 instead. At that salary, it would be very easy to trade him back to a bad NL team if necessary. But if RDLR keeps going the way he has, Cherington will certainly want a mulligan on the trade itself. Well RDLR has had exactly one good start on the season, against a Pittsburgh team whose OPS is in the bottom quarter of the league to this point in the season. It's not like he's lighting it up out there.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 15:43:33 GMT -5
Well RDLR has had exactly one good start on the season, against a Pittsburgh team whose OPS is in the bottom quarter of the league to this point in the season. It's not like he's lighting it up out there. Here's the stats, you tell me which one was good and which three were bad - 5 K 1 NIBB - 5 K 1 NIBB - 7 K 2 NIBB - 8 K 0 NIBB
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 18:21:24 GMT -5
(Anthony Rizzo + Reymond Fuentes + Casey Kelly) = Adrian Gonzalez = (Rubby De La Rosa + Allen Webster) = Wade Miley = PTBNL
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Post by redsoxnh2014 on Apr 27, 2015 19:56:16 GMT -5
(Anthony Rizzo + Reymond Fuentes + Casey Kelly) = Adrian Gonzalez = (Rubby De La Rosa + Allen Webster) = Wade Miley = PTBNL If you're trying to depress everyone you're doing a good job...
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Post by beasleyrockah on Apr 27, 2015 19:57:06 GMT -5
(Anthony Rizzo + Reymond Fuentes + Casey Kelly) = Adrian Gonzalez = (Rubby De La Rosa + Allen Webster) = Wade Miley = PTBNL So Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett never existed?
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Post by jmei on Apr 27, 2015 20:15:24 GMT -5
(Anthony Rizzo + Reymond Fuentes + Casey Kelly) = Adrian Gonzalez = (Rubby De La Rosa + Allen Webster) = Wade Miley = PTBNL So Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett never existed? To make the point more directly: (Anthony Rizzo + Reymond Fuentes + Casey Kelly) = Adrian Gonzalez = (Rubby De La Rosa + Allen Webster) - (Carl Crawford + Josh Beckett) = (Salary Relief) = (Mike Napoli + Shane Victorino + Ryan Dempster + Stephen Drew) = 2013 World Series Champions + Wade Miley = ?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 20:45:53 GMT -5
I think Miley will be fine. His velocity is there, and his walk rate is 3.5 BB/9 higher than his career average. Even if this is a bad year for him in that category, we're going to see a huge drop there. his LOB% is 45%, which is crazy low. That'll stabilize too. His K/9 was right around his career average of 7 before his last start.
Why people are letting 4 starts lead them off a cliff is beyond me. We've won 50% of the games he's started in still.
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 27, 2015 21:00:05 GMT -5
I think the chances are far greater Miley's numbers revert to more of the projections than him continuing to suck. His LOB rate is so far below his career norms, that should normalize fairly significantly. His BB rate is also substantially higher than it has ever been. Did he just lost the ability to pitch, I don't think so. Has the change in leagues had an effect, maybe, probably. But he's nowhere near as bad as his 8+ ERA shows.
I'm far more concerned with Masterson who's velocity has been down on every pitch but his changeup. And as a 5th starter, albeit relatively highly paid, there are plenty of options for when Masterson loses the spot, either to someone, or to the DL
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 21:11:29 GMT -5
I think the chances are far greater Miley's numbers revert to more of the projections than him continuing to suck. His LOB rate is so far below his career norms, that should normalize fairly significantly. His BB rate is also substantially higher than it has ever been. Did he just lost the ability to pitch, I don't think so. Has the change in leagues had an effect, maybe, probably. But he's nowhere near as bad as his 8+ ERA shows. I'm far more concerned with Masterson who's velocity has been down on every pitch but his changeup. And as a 5th starter, albeit relatively highly paid, there are plenty of options for when Masterson loses the spot, either to someone, or to the DL Masterson has me confused. His velocity drops across the board, yet his peripherals look pretty damn good still. His K:BB, HR/9, GB% all look good. He's going to give up more HRs, but he'll likely strand more runners too. I think the key will be his K-rate, which i can't help but expect to fall from 8 K/9 when he's only throwing 87-89. In a way I'm more worried about him than Miley, but he's on a one year deal so there isn't too much risk.
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okin15
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Post by okin15 on Apr 27, 2015 21:28:52 GMT -5
If Miley get's optioned, what happens to his contract? How much does he get paid and how do his remaining years of MLB service get figured? I guess same question for Craig?
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Post by jmei on Apr 27, 2015 21:29:41 GMT -5
The other thing about both Miley and Masterson is that even if one or both end up needing to be taken out of the rotation, they both have pretty strong splits (vs. L for Miley and vs. R for Masterson) and should at least be strong bullpen arms. Of course, since Miley is signed long-term, that would be an unfortunate outcome for him (it'd make trading him much more difficult and make it more difficult for him to return to the rotation in 2016 and beyond). But Masterson on his one-year deal and death-to-righties arm slot could be a pretty great (albeit very overpaid) reliever.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Apr 27, 2015 21:42:52 GMT -5
Could it possibly be our catchers at fault as well?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 22:05:04 GMT -5
Could it possibly be our catchers at fault as well? Statcorner has Hanigan as the 7th worst framer in baseball thus far, and Leon as the 4th worst. Hanigan was slightly above average last year, but his "per game" stat according to StatCorner was 1/9 of Vazquez's. It's not going to be the strongpoint we thought it would be this year. I think it'll improve until we're middle of the pack.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 23:26:34 GMT -5
What happened to formula Spectacular Infield Defense + Ground Ball Pitchers = No Need For An "Ace"
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Post by jmei on Apr 27, 2015 23:42:01 GMT -5
What happened to formula Spectacular Infield Defense + Ground Ball Pitchers = No Need For An "Ace" The spectacular defense hasn't been there (Bogaerts has always been middling; Pedroia and Napoli have made disproportionately many errors. Also, BABIP (see the xFIP/ERA disparity.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 28, 2015 6:23:07 GMT -5
If Miley get's optioned, what happens to his contract? How much does he get paid and how do his remaining years of MLB service get figured? I guess same question for Craig? It's theoretically possible for the contract to contain a split salary paying less when the player is in the minors (e.g. Ryan Roberts last season), but I'd be willing to bet neither Craig nor Miley has such a clause in his contract and sending them down would not serve any money. If their contracts run out and they still haven't accrued 6 years of major league service time, they become eligible for salary arbitration. However, I'm not sure if this is also the case if the team declines a team option on their contract.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 28, 2015 7:05:27 GMT -5
So Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett never existed? To make the point more directly: (Anthony Rizzo + Reymond Fuentes + Casey Kelly) = Adrian Gonzalez = (Rubby De La Rosa + Allen Webster) - (Carl Crawford + Josh Beckett) = (Salary Relief) = (Mike Napoli + Shane Victorino + Ryan Dempster + Stephen Drew) = 2013 World Series Champions + Wade Miley = ?Not just that...but two of the players from the Gonzo trade were put in the trade that brought Holt to the Red Sox.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 28, 2015 8:37:58 GMT -5
To make the point more directly: (Anthony Rizzo + Reymond Fuentes + Casey Kelly) = Adrian Gonzalez = (Rubby De La Rosa + Allen Webster) - (Carl Crawford + Josh Beckett) = (Salary Relief) = (Mike Napoli + Shane Victorino + Ryan Dempster + Stephen Drew) = 2013 World Series Champions + Wade Miley = ?Not just that...but two of the players from the Gonzo trade were put in the trade that brought Holt to the Red Sox. Well, if you want to go there considering that Melacon went to Pitts - Melacon who was a bust and also cost them Lowrie.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 8:42:42 GMT -5
And what happens if Mike Lowell doesn't block a trade to Toronto for Edwin Encarnacion?
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Post by libertine on Apr 28, 2015 8:51:09 GMT -5
I think some people are overreacting a bit to Miley's poor start to the season. The other starter on Sunday, Bud Norris, gave up 3 ER in 6.2 IP to lower his ERA to almost 12.00. There are a bunch of good starters in MLB who have got off to bad starts this season.
That being said not only Miley, but the whole staff, need to up their games just to reach the threshold of being considered underwhelming.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 9:28:49 GMT -5
Could it possibly be our catchers at fault as well? Statcorner has Hanigan as the 7th worst framer in baseball thus far, and Leon as the 4th worst. Hanigan was slightly above average last year, but his "per game" stat according to StatCorner was 1/9 of Vazquez's. It's not going to be the strongpoint we thought it would be this year. I think it'll improve until we're middle of the pack. Not to completely derail this thread, but I thought when we acquired Sandy that last season he was "slightly better" than Vazquez in framing pitches? Am I misremembering this? Not saying Sandy Leon is 1/10th the defensive catcher Vazquez is, but I thought that was his biggest strength and a big reason as to why the Sox acquired him?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 28, 2015 10:29:16 GMT -5
Statcorner has Hanigan as the 7th worst framer in baseball thus far, and Leon as the 4th worst. Hanigan was slightly above average last year, but his "per game" stat according to StatCorner was 1/9 of Vazquez's. It's not going to be the strongpoint we thought it would be this year. I think it'll improve until we're middle of the pack. Not to completely derail this thread, but I thought when we acquired Sandy that last season he was "slightly better" than Vazquez in framing pitches? Am I misremembering this? Not saying Sandy Leon is 1/10th the defensive catcher Vazquez is, but I thought that was his biggest strength and a big reason as to why the Sox acquired him? SSS. I'm just gonna give it time. But yeah I think that's the reason we got him pretty much.
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Post by johnmark on Apr 28, 2015 11:00:50 GMT -5
Not to completely derail this thread, but I thought when we acquired Sandy that last season he was "slightly better" than Vazquez in framing pitches? Am I misremembering this? Not saying Sandy Leon is 1/10th the defensive catcher Vazquez is, but I thought that was his biggest strength and a big reason as to why the Sox acquired him? SSS. I'm just gonna give it time. But yeah I think that's the reason we got him pretty much. I think the biggest we got him was to keep Swihart at AAA. It wasn't about his abilities as much as it was about what it enabled the GM to not have to do.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Apr 28, 2015 11:12:55 GMT -5
I like Miley as a 4 or 5, but he needs a solid or better defense to be successful.
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