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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 16, 2015 15:14:32 GMT -5
Yes Jmei really. Players don't become more risky because of the increase of the number of candles on their birthday cake. If they did, all player's careers would end at the same age. And stop with the third grade shenanigans. You were beat again now bow down
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 16, 2015 15:46:31 GMT -5
Yes Jmei really. Players don't become more risky because of the increase of the number of candles on their birthday cake. If they did, all player's careers would end at the same age. And stop with the third grade shenanigans. You were beat again now bow down This doesn't make any sense.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 16, 2015 16:11:20 GMT -5
Yes Jmei really. Players don't become more risky because of the increase of the number of candles on their birthday cake. If they did, all player's careers would end at the same age. And stop with the third grade shenanigans. You were beat again now bow down This doesn't make any sense. It makes perfect sense. Age does not cause a career to end physical decline does. Not all players physically decline at the same rate over time. If they did all careers would end at the same age. Hence if a player is one year older but in better physical health than before we would expect their risk to decrease not increase. Hope that helps.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 16, 2015 16:13:47 GMT -5
The whole thing is, it doesn't matter much. Breslow is just depth that can be discarded if he's not worth a roster spot, like Capuano last year. I'm actually optimistic about it after hearing his comments about how he never felt right all year because he couldn't throw last winter due to shoulder soreness. He was never able to build up the strength he needed. He said he feels great this winter. This was the other part of my point. Given Breslow's track record you would have to be pretty sure that he was done to not want to sign him for $2.5M never mind start crying about a the backup AAA catcher. If there is even a 50% chance that he returns to form, I'd buy that for $2.5M.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 16, 2015 16:20:44 GMT -5
This doesn't make any sense. It makes perfect sense. Age does not cause a career to end physical decline does. Not all players physically decline at the same rate over time. If they did all careers would end at the same age. Hence if a player is one year older but in better physical health than before we would expect their risk to decrease not increase. Hope that helps. Increasing age is directly correlated to physical decline. No one is saying it is absolute. All 36 year olds don't decline at the same rate, but on average they decline faster than 26 year olds. So no one is saying that because of Breslows age, his decline is absolute. The point is that his age makes decline more likely than if he was younger, which is unequivocally true.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 16, 2015 16:22:35 GMT -5
... I tell you this all the time but you never listen... Stay away from this stuff. Read your posts before throwing them out there. You can make your points without preaching, your smart enough to do that.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 16, 2015 17:09:36 GMT -5
So just catching up here and making sure I understand, we want to bring back steroids, yes?
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 16, 2015 17:16:02 GMT -5
... I tell you this all the time but you never listen... Stay away from this stuff. Read your posts before throwing them out there. You can make your points without preaching, your smart enough to do that. I think it's worth nothing when you have repeated a concept or a point more than three times and the participant still refuses to acknowledge the point and instead posts juvenile pictures as an argument by ridicule. Go yell at him.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 16, 2015 17:16:49 GMT -5
So just catching up here and making sure I understand, we want to bring back steroids, yes? Yup...and chicken in the clubhouse.
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Post by ramireja on Jan 16, 2015 17:21:37 GMT -5
Now you're arguing for the sake of arguing once again. Even if there is a third variable (injury risk) that correlates positively with increasing age and correlates negatively with velocity....the fact that Breslow is older this year (and not younger), makes him more risky and not less. I am not arguing for the sake of arguing, you are misunderstanding the logical fallacy. In the following example X = age, Y = risk and Z = the third variable. That X correlates with Y this does not mean that X is an independent variable of Y. This is because Z is actually an independent variable, a confounding factor. Because X is an independent variable of Z. Hence if X rises and Z does not we should expect Y to remain the same because Z and not X causes Y. Your statement is incorrect. An increase in Breslow's age does not make him more risky, that would be depend on the change in the third variable Z. Hope that helps. Okay, let me be more clear. I don't disagree that one's age alone (like literally the number of years) causes a decline in performance (variable Y). But when an increase in age (variable X) is strongly related to physical decline, or injury risk (variable Z), and physical decline leads to a decline in performance, than an increase in age should be related to a decline in performance as well on average. A classic meditational model.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 16, 2015 23:14:52 GMT -5
And you should maybe try to contribute something useful instead of making posts like these.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2015 23:36:43 GMT -5
Who would have guessed that Dan Butler being traded would have elicited such heightened emotions? Just for the record, I think it was a bad deal since it eroded our catching depth.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 18, 2015 14:33:29 GMT -5
One thing that it would seem to do on the surface is guarantee that Vazquez or Swihart isn't going to be part of any kind of deal.
What scenario could anyone imagine where one of them went in a deal for, say, Hamels, and then the team would have to scramble to rebuild its top-level catching? What is reasonably out there that the team could acquire if such a trade went down?
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2015 15:04:18 GMT -5
I'm not sure it really changes Swihart/Vazquez's status much. Swihart could still be moved, since Hanigan is under team control for another two years (with a third year option) and Vazquez tentatively looks like a starting-level guy. It might slightly lessen the likelihood that Vazquez is moved, but I think Hanigan is a decent enough stopgap starter that, if you're getting enough in return, you might still be willing to move Vazquez.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 18, 2015 15:43:56 GMT -5
I'm not sure it really changes Swihart/Vazquez's status much. Swihart could still be moved, since Hanigan is under team control for another two years (with a third year option) and Vazquez tentatively looks like a starting-level guy. It might slightly lessen the likelihood that Vazquez is moved, but I think Hanigan is a decent enough stopgap starter that, if you're getting enough in return, you might still be willing to move Vazquez. There's also the possibility that it could be Vazquez if we also got back a decent backup to Hanigan. For Hamels, Cameron Rupp for example, is said to be a decent defensive catcher who still has options. For Hamels, there could also be the possibility of it being a three teamer with Ruiz going someplace and the Sox ending up with a different backup catcher. The catcher speculation in the rumors is based on Ruiz being $8.5m and only signed thru the rebuilding period. Ruiz does have value but isn't a good fit for the Sox. I'm guessing Swihart is pretty close to untouchable. ADD: I'm not sure what this is about but... Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 3h3 hours ago As for the "NL executive" speculation in the Globe of Philly eventually settling for Vazquez at the key piece for Hamels, all-in on that.
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Post by raftsox on Jan 19, 2015 11:59:36 GMT -5
I'm not really sure what the hullabaloo was all about, here. Butler is the very definition of replacement level; ie. he can be replaced easily mid-season if needs dictate. Breslow is one of a group of similar FA LHRP; all of whom will cost similiar amounts.
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