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Sickels' top 20 Red Sox prospects
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Post by gator39 on Jan 20, 2015 19:20:29 GMT -5
What stood out to me from his list is that Brian Johnson is definitely underrated & Heath hembree is definitely overrated. I also thought Chavis should be higher & was very surprised to see Asuaje in the top 20.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 20, 2015 19:33:45 GMT -5
I bought the handbook in 2012 and 2013. It's a pretty good as a broad reference for players across the game. I note that one Rays scout (Rico Brogna, as a matter of fact) had it with him at McCoy one time and he checked it a couple times. However, the BA book has more players, I believe, as I don't think Sickels goes 30(/31) deep on every system like they do. FWIW, in Sickels' case, I don't believe he actually travels, and that therefore, being in Kansas, he doesn't see this system first-hand. I have always thought that this is why he tends to favor players who are higher in the system - more reports to get from whoever he contacts. Tough to pump a guy like Guerra too much if you don't have reports on him, which we're lucky enough to have first-hand from ST and Instructs, as well as from other contacts. If you have the inclination, I don't think it's a poor purchase. Just depends on what you're looking for. I just think it's really hard for one guy to cover all 30 teams by himself like Sickels does. As for this list, I too found the exclusion of Guerra (even if you want to pump the brakes, I don't see how he's behind the group of C+'s here - I'll call that one a straight-up miss) and inclusion of Hembree (how is an "effective middle reliever" this system's #16 prospect?) curious, as well as the respective placements of Ranaudo and Johnson (although I think that is at least kind of arguable if you have the right information and opinion of each guy...). The Ranaudo writeup reads like you'd write it if you were scouting his stats rather than his stuff though, imo. I get Cecchini being where he is because he's always been Sickels' binky, and we all have those, so hey, if he believes in him, then he should keep putting him that high. Yeah, that point about scouting stats rather than the player is the vibe I get from reading a lot of his lists/blurbs. Of course, Ray is right that I shouldn't criticize him without checking out the actual product. Maybe I'll give it a look, although as it is, I don't really have enough time to completely scope out every BA/BP/FG report as much as I'd like to (and, I'll add that $26 seems a tad high for single PDF file, at least when you compare it to an annual all-access BP subscription. I know the BA Handbook is even pricier, but that's a must-have, and as you note, I would think it's far more comprehensive). Sickels has been around a long time. I think it's more a case of talking to contacts (scouts, GMs) within baseball as opposed to scouting stats. That's pretty much where the greatest majority of info comes from for all of the analysts. Even organizations as large as BA don't have the resources to scout every player on every team and then make a comprehensive list based on that. In that regards, he's pretty much in a similar situation to Callis now except he doesn't have a partner (Mayo). |
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265 
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Post by TX on Jan 20, 2015 21:02:46 GMT -5
Wow, 14 highly rated prospects, with a number of our recently signed IFA's not even among them? This is awesome! Great future!
In other news: Where is this team's pitching? Stop prospect hugging, Ben. Stop it now.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,679
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Post by nomar on Jan 21, 2015 9:31:55 GMT -5
Wow, 14 highly rated prospects, with a number of our recently signed IFA's not even among them? This is awesome! Great future! In other news: Where is this team's pitching? Stop prospect hugging, Ben. Stop it now. Id rather be the Cardinals than the 2013 Red Sox. That's an exaggeration, but if we sell our better specs for a rental were mortgaging the future and I don't think the benefit is high enough to do so. Depends on the specs you're willing to deal. Margot is the best trade chip for us right now. Big ceiling, organizationally deep position. I think Swihart in a Strasburg deal wouldn't be the end of the world. But I don't think I would want to give up multiple of our top 7-ish prospects for one player at this point. I'd rather trade midseason. |
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 21, 2015 10:22:49 GMT -5
Yeah clearly....though he was as high on Devers as everyone else. Well, this site grades him a potential 7 and currently a 6, which is higher than B+/borderline B Maybe slightly.....but it's not a huge difference. I am comfortable saying that Sickels ranking and evaluation is in the neighborhood of everyone else's. That's not true with some of the other less experienced prospects like Guerra though. |
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Post by jmei on Jan 21, 2015 10:23:17 GMT -5
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 21, 2015 10:31:03 GMT -5
What stood out to me from his list is that Brian Johnson is definitely underrated & Heath hembree is definitely overrated. I also thought Chavis should be higher & was very surprised to see Asuaje in the top 20. 11 is right around where I would expect Johnson to be. With you on the other three though especially Chavis. Most teams have their first round pick in their orgs' top ten. |
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Post by ramireja on Jan 21, 2015 13:08:55 GMT -5
I like B. Johnson in the 6-10 range, and have him at 6 in my personal rankings consistent with the site here. Compared to other pitchers in this range, I give Johnson greater odds to be at least be a 4/5 type in the majors as I'm still not sure if Barnes or Ranaudo project as starters in the majors. If you want to put Barnes and Ranaudo ahead based on ceiling, I'd still say they all share the ceiling of a #3 with Johnson the most likely to reach that ceiling. I understand he doesn't have a true plus pitch, but having 3-4 average pitches with command and knowledge as how to effectively mix them, gives him a fair chance to reach that ceiling IMO.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 21, 2015 13:19:46 GMT -5
I don't see Ranaudo's ceiling being that high. He still doesn't have a 3rd pitch and he pitches too high in the zone without enough command. Sounds like Workman with less control. Barnes flashes a lot more than Ranaudo so I wouldn't lump them together. I have Barnes and Johnson pretty close with Ranaudo way far behind, in the teens.
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Post by dmaineah on Jan 21, 2015 13:25:14 GMT -5
Bryce Brentz belongs in the top 20 Why? Based on what he has done in Pawtucket the past 2 years it seems to me that he is ready to be an everyday player (or at least a 4th OF/RH Bat off the bench) at the Big League Level |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 21, 2015 19:56:19 GMT -5
I don't see Ranaudo's ceiling being that high. He still doesn't have a 3rd pitch and he pitches too high in the zone without enough command. Sounds like Workman with less control. Barnes flashes a lot more than Ranaudo so I wouldn't lump them together. I have Barnes and Johnson pretty close with Ranaudo way far behind, in the teens. I actually have Ranaudo and Barnes very close together but for different reasons. In Ranaudo's case, it isn't lack of a third pitch, it's fastball command, he's throwing it too high in the zone now, he's not taking advantage of his height. He actually has four pitches although he just started the slider. In Barnes case it's definitely lack of a third pitch, his curve is nowhere near ready, it doesn't even flash average. He'll make a fine reliever though, 8th inning potential. |
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Post by larrycook on Jan 21, 2015 21:01:44 GMT -5
I don't see Ranaudo's ceiling being that high. He still doesn't have a 3rd pitch and he pitches too high in the zone without enough command. Sounds like Workman with less control. Barnes flashes a lot more than Ranaudo so I wouldn't lump them together. I have Barnes and Johnson pretty close with Ranaudo way far behind, in the teens. I actually have Ranaudo and Barnes very close together but for different reasons. In Ranaudo's case, it isn't lack of a third pitch, it's fastball command, he's throwing it too high in the zone now, he's not taking advantage of his height. He actually has four pitches although he just started the slider. In Barnes case it's definitely lack of a third pitch, his curve is nowhere near ready, it doesn't even flash average. He'll make a fine reliever though, 8th inning potential. If ranaudo keeps pitching up in the zone, he won't have a spot in any team's bullpen or rotation. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 21, 2015 21:38:43 GMT -5
I actually have Ranaudo and Barnes very close together but for different reasons. In Ranaudo's case, it isn't lack of a third pitch, it's fastball command, he's throwing it too high in the zone now, he's not taking advantage of his height. He actually has four pitches although he just started the slider. In Barnes case it's definitely lack of a third pitch, his curve is nowhere near ready, it doesn't even flash average. He'll make a fine reliever though, 8th inning potential. If ranaudo keeps pitching up in the zone, he won't have a spot in any team's bullpen or rotation. True but to me, Ranaudo is closer to starting than Barnes at this point, Barnes is closer to relieving. To me, Ranaudo needs to either lower his fastball or increase his sitting velocity, Barnes needs to learn the curve. I'm not so sure the later is the likeliest task. Either way, I have Johnson significantly ahead of both and even more so than most as I perceive 'most'. |
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jan 21, 2015 21:55:25 GMT -5
Well last year Barnes showed some hope that he could improve the consistency and command of his curve while Ranaudo kept struggling his fastball command. Considering his age, delivery, and athleticism I doubt he should improve his fastball command dramatically. To me Ranaudo is a bullpen arm at best. He is not on my top 10 list.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 21, 2015 22:03:58 GMT -5
And last year Ranaudo pitched the most innings in his life and periodically hit 96. Player development is a difficult thing to analyse. Barnes has little movement to his curve, at it's best, it's nowere near as good as Ranaudo's.
Ranaudo and Barnes are both in the same situation, there's something glaring yet there's hope for both. Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. In either case there's a pretty clear difference between the group that is Owens, Rodriguez and Johnson and the group that is Ranaudo, Barnes and Escobar. For the later three, it's not beyond reason but keep in mind I'm not saying it's going to happen, it didn't for Webster or RDLR (different issues but issues). I'm just saying I wouldn't want to give up on them quite yet.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jan 21, 2015 22:16:32 GMT -5
And last year Ranaudo pitched the most innings in his life and periodically hit 96. Player development is a difficult thing to analyse. Barnes has little movement to his curve, at it's best, it's nowere near as good as Ranaudo's. Ranaudo and Barnes are both in the same situation, there's something glaring yet there's hope for both. Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. In either case there's a pretty clear difference between the group that is Owens, Rodriguez and Johnson and the group that is Ranaudo, Barnes and Escobar. For the later three, it's not beyond reason but keep in mind I'm not saying it's going to happen, it didn't for Webster or RDLR (different issues but issues). I'm just saying I wouldn't want to give up on them quite yet. I don't know whether you watched Barnes game or pitching video. He flashed plus to better curve while it lacked consistency and command. Watch his August 2 game. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 21, 2015 22:46:42 GMT -5
I only saw Barnes a few times, I was more interested in watching Portland (that's the usual case for me, I like to watch the changes at AA more than AAA).
Then in general we agree on Barnes, there's hope. On the other hand, Ranaudo's curve is an absolute hammer, it's his best pitch and, he also throws a slider which is probably roughly equivalent, overall, to Barnes curve. I'm actually not sure why Ranaudo is pitching so high. Way back when... he was pitching for the Brewster Whitcaps in the Cape Cod League, the year he was drafted by the Sox. Those games were all televised and one thing that was impressive was the location of the curve/FB mix being in the same place, low.
There's also hope for Escobar. I was impressed by his last few starts but not his first few for the Sox. Unfortunately, his situation is kind of screwing him. Only one option and he's just 22. It seems pretty risky to assume that he's going to be major league starter ready at age 23. Too bad, for a 22 year old, he's pretty decent.
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Post by charliezink16 on Jan 22, 2015 0:15:34 GMT -5
I find it funny how some have already deemed Ranaudo worthless after 39 IP when, just a couple months back, he was quite highly regarded. He was approaching a career high in IP, so chances are that we've seen a worn down side of Ranaudo. With improvements in command, and the refinement of another secondary offering, Ranaudo can still be a descent back end starter. Sure he kept balls up and wasn't using height to his advantage, but it takes longer for taller pitchers to figure it out. Look at Doug Fister. Similar size, similar fastball speed (88.8 to Ranaudo's 91.6), and a subpar K/9 rate (6.13 career for Fister). Fister's control wasn't great, and his 2 secondary pitches (CH, SL) weren't good until he hit AAA. In terms of unrealistic ceilings, Fister is it for Ranaudo. Yes it's very, very unlikely he reaches it, but improvements in the above areas would make Ranaudo into a valuable back end starter.
ADD: Don't mean to beat the dead horse, but Hembree at #16 and Wright unrated doesn't make sense to me.
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Post by jmei on Jan 22, 2015 7:07:19 GMT -5
Not sure Fister is a useful comp for Ranaudo. He throws a two-seamer which gets tons of ground balls, while Ranaudo has always been a fairly extreme fly ball guy.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,679
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Post by nomar on Jan 22, 2015 7:35:41 GMT -5
Not sure Fister is a useful comp for Ranaudo. He throws a two-seamer which gets tons of ground balls, while Ranaudo has always been a fairly extreme fly ball guy. This. Ranaudo's mediocre K rate combined with his FB% spell disaster especially in this division. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 22, 2015 10:39:24 GMT -5
I don't see Ranaudo's ceiling being that high. He still doesn't have a 3rd pitch and he pitches too high in the zone without enough command. Sounds like Workman with less control. Barnes flashes a lot more than Ranaudo so I wouldn't lump them together. I have Barnes and Johnson pretty close with Ranaudo way far behind, in the teens. I actually have Ranaudo and Barnes very close together but for different reasons. In Ranaudo's case, it isn't lack of a third pitch, it's fastball command, he's throwing it too high in the zone now, he's not taking advantage of his height. He actually has four pitches although he just started the slider. In Barnes case it's definitely lack of a third pitch, his curve is nowhere near ready, it doesn't even flash average. He'll make a fine reliever though, 8th inning potential. He has 4 pitches, with his changeup being pretty lousy and a brand new slider which isn't different enough from the curve. His best pitch is his curve and he still doesn't command his fastball enough. For me, best case is his stuff ticks up in the BP and he can go strictly FB/CB or he goes to pitch in a flyball friendly park. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 22, 2015 11:14:19 GMT -5
I actually have Ranaudo and Barnes very close together but for different reasons. In Ranaudo's case, it isn't lack of a third pitch, it's fastball command, he's throwing it too high in the zone now, he's not taking advantage of his height. He actually has four pitches although he just started the slider. In Barnes case it's definitely lack of a third pitch, his curve is nowhere near ready, it doesn't even flash average. He'll make a fine reliever though, 8th inning potential. He has 4 pitches, with his changeup being pretty lousy and a brand new slider which isn't different enough from the curve. His best pitch is his curve and he still doesn't command his fastball enough. For me, best case is his stuff ticks up in the BP and he can go strictly FB/CB or he goes to pitch in a flyball friendly park. Yes better fastball command never happens, we should just put him in the pen now. |
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 22, 2015 11:49:34 GMT -5
I like B. Johnson in the 6-10 range, and have him at 6 in my personal rankings consistent with the site here. Compared to other pitchers in this range, I give Johnson greater odds to be at least be a 4/5 type in the majors as I'm still not sure if Barnes or Ranaudo project as starters in the majors. If you want to put Barnes and Ranaudo ahead based on ceiling, I'd still say they all share the ceiling of a #3 with Johnson the most likely to reach that ceiling. I understand he doesn't have a true plus pitch, but having 3-4 average pitches with command and knowledge as how to effectively mix them, gives him a fair chance to reach that ceiling IMO. I don't think anyone disagrees on the top five prospects. Sure we could quibble about what order they should be in but everyone seems to agree who they are. After that there are about 7-15 guys who are bunched up and probably relatively close. We can argue about how these guys should be ranked and really there is no wrong answer. Here is how I see the tiers with no particular order within each tier Tier 1 (The Top Guys) Owens Swihart Rodriguez Devers Margot Tier 2 (A step below but definitely in this tier) Chavis Barnes Marrero Koppech Ranaudo Checcini Johnson Tier 2A (You could make an argument that these guys belong in the 2nd tier) Guerra Coyle Ball Rijo Escobar Shaw Travis Longhi Interesting Lotto Tix Taveras Acosta Espinoza Ockimey Weems |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 22, 2015 11:56:36 GMT -5
From the link: ...where's Owens?? This one's about as mundane as you can get, something a few folks on this site could write in their sleep. Doesn't take much to get an online gig these days I guess. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 22, 2015 11:59:06 GMT -5
He has 4 pitches, with his changeup being pretty lousy and a brand new slider which isn't different enough from the curve. His best pitch is his curve and he still doesn't command his fastball enough. For me, best case is his stuff ticks up in the BP and he can go strictly FB/CB or he goes to pitch in a flyball friendly park. Yes better fastball command never happens, we should just put him in the pen now. That and at least an average to plus 3rd pitch. Not impossible, but not likely on our team. |
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