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Anthony Ranaudo traded to TEX for Robbie Ross Jr
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Post by Guidas on Jan 27, 2015 21:22:09 GMT -5
Seems like a lot to give up for essentially a lefty specialist if one buys into the splits as the reason for the move You have this backwards-- Ross has smaller-than-average splits, which is to say that he's better vs. RHH and worse versus LHH than the average left-handed relief pitcher. Yes, my bad- I was thinking righty but typed "lefty." Hmm, I wonder if this is a right brained dyslexia thing on my part? Anyway, I agree with you on that point. And I still think it's a bad trade.
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TX
Veteran
Posts: 265
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Post by TX on Jan 27, 2015 21:23:21 GMT -5
What would have Webster, De La Rosa, and Ranuado earned a year ago? Opinion: Prospect huggers suck. The majority of these kids fail, anyway, so you really need to drop that kick.
I welcome Hamels, Zimmermann, Stras or, pretty much anyone who's bona fide. In return, take your pick of prospects. not one of them is untouchable because we're smarter than that.
Wake up, BC
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Post by jmei on Jan 27, 2015 21:39:16 GMT -5
What would have Webster, De La Rosa, and Ranuado earned a year ago? Opinion: Prospect huggers suck. The majority of these kids fail, anyway, so you really need to drop that kick. Counterpoint: Mookie Betts.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 27, 2015 21:52:55 GMT -5
The "Red Sox hold onto prospects for too long" is sort of funny in this case, because Ross definitely lost more value in '14 than Ranaudo did. A year ago Ross was an effective lefty reliever with reverse splits and a real chance to convert effectively to starting.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2015 22:18:56 GMT -5
This is good. My All Former Prospects fantasy team was struggling to put together a starting staff. Now, I can trot out a rotation of Lester, Anibal, Doubie, Kelly and Ranaudo.
Ross's Fangraphs splits:
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6819&position=P
Basically he's a two pitch pitcher - fastball/slider. Has always thrown a cut fastball, but last year began throwing more of a two seam fastball. Also, has a curve and a change that he rarely resorts to.
Nice summary footage of 7 2/3 scoreless innings he threw last April 15th, his best and longest outing of the season:
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 27, 2015 22:59:22 GMT -5
Sad to see Ranaudo go, he was my binky before the emergence of Keith Couch. Good trade though, Ross sounds like a really solid reliever and at this point that was Ranaudo's upside.
The Red Sox did kind of sell low on Ranaudo but they also bought low on Ross, so all is fair.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 27, 2015 23:02:12 GMT -5
Kind of a strange unexpected deal for the Sox. I'm not overly crazy about it.
If taken for the actual deal that it is, it can be seen as defensible. You take a starter who's not likely to stick with the Sox because they feel they ultimately have better options and you deal him for a lefty that should stick in the bullpen and is being looked at somebody who can rebound to how he pitched the first couple of seasons.
From a short-term perspective, it's kind of weird in that if injuries or ineffectiveness occurred early in the season I would have thought that Ranaudo would have gotten the first call up to the bigs. I guess now that Workman would get that call (and it's possible he starts the season as the long man in the pen anyways) or Wright would get that call.
I would think they'd want more seasoning out Barnes, Owens, or Rodriguez or Johnson before we see them in the first half of the season.
My bigger issue with the deal is something that cannot be measured really. I honestly think if Ranaudo put up a strong season in AAA similar to what he did last year, came up to the Sox and gave them some serviceable starts, he'd very much be considered a "major league ready" pitcher, somebody that can be a chip in a deal for the ace starter rental the Sox need. I would think between Marrero, Coyle, Bradley, and Cecchini (maybe even Brentz), there would be two to three hitter chips the Sox could cash in and that Ranaudo would be one of the pitcher chips in a deal along with somebody like Johnson or Stankiewicz. This is of course under the hope that the "A" chips wouldn't be needed to land a rental ace (and yes I'm thinking Cueto as I think the Nats will hang onto their pitching, and I wouldn't count on Hamels) for the last two to three months of the season. I think Ranaudo could have been a prime piece.
You can always make a sensible argument and say you make the trade that's in front of you that improves your club now and you can't worry about a theoretical trade that may never happen, and I can't blame anybody for thinking that. I just think Ranaudo could have been a chip that could have been deployed more effectively.
Of course if Ross bounces back to what he was in 2012-2013, then the deal looks alright assuming that Ranaudo is nothing more than a back end starter or reliever. I honestly think he might be more than that.
Yes, he stunk with the Sox last year, but I think he also could have been pitching tired. I think he was throwing more innings last year than he was used to and it took a toll. I don't think he'll forever be the pitcher that gave up 10 HR in 39 IP. I think he'll settle in and be better than that. How much better? I don't know, but I do think while he had some actual value for the Sox, the Sox are obviously much higher on Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson, and Barnes as starters.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 27, 2015 23:07:50 GMT -5
Lets do some simple arithmetic. The Sox have young potential starters coming out of every seam in that Pawtucket club. They're just answering the rhetorical question I asked earlier: what do they do with these guys?
I've thought about it and I was probably harsh in my assessment of Ranaudo at the tail end of last season. All those innings may have played a role in that mediocre showing, those fastballs up in the zone before detouring out of the park.
The fact is he was still way at the end of the conga line. In my book, Owens, Barnes, Rodriguez, Johnson, Wright and even Workman were all ahead of him. When was he supposed to get playing time and where? There still a 50-50 chance they sold low and not high, but I'm looking at my personal list of what I thought they needed at the end of last season. Left fielder, check. Backup catcher, check. Third baseman, preferably a left handed hitter, check. Rebuild the rotation, check. Replenish the bullpen, including left handed relievers, check, check.
And they're still holding a minor league hand that's a winner, more than enough to keep dealing if they want to. I don't see much to complain about.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 28, 2015 0:26:04 GMT -5
Boras isn't a dummy. He knows that MLB starters make far more money than AAA starters.
(Also: I don't think Ranaudo being a Boras client has a single thing to do with this.)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 28, 2015 0:38:45 GMT -5
Sure Ross will most likely help us more then Ranaudo would have next year. But it's never good to trade number 5 starters for relievers. Last year Ranaudo made seven starts and had 3 quality starts. Sure his numbers weren't that impressive, but he was also closing in on almost a 180 innings which is by far a high for him. He had pitched only 140 innings the year before. Have to say think we sold low, hope I am wrong.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 0:41:48 GMT -5
As a guy who was in the AR camp and not afraid to stick his helmet above the cover I think this as well as the RDLR/Webster trade could look bad in a couple years. Ranaudo didn't dominate triple A for most of the season bc of a fringe fastball and change and good curve. The two times I saw him in Pawtucket early this summer (Grandparents live in Winthrop and its a great excuse to see them) he was flashing 93-95 with a change that resulted in whiffs or weak contact. I saw his ceiling as a chris young/ Kevin Millwood type. Granted this was 50 ish innings into his season, but I saw some dominant stuff there. We've all seen Robbie Ross on MLB package, he's a guy who throws 90-94 with a decent little slider, and I liked that he pitched like he did in Arlington, I just believe that if anything, Ranaudo could have been packaged together to get us a bigger piece. We sold pretty low on the best pitcher in triple A last year and it looks like people are just blindly saying "great job BC"
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 1:04:19 GMT -5
What would have Webster, De La Rosa, and Ranuado earned a year ago? Opinion: Prospect huggers suck. The majority of these kids fail, anyway, so you really need to drop that kick. Counterpoint: Mookie Betts. Forgive me for posting twice back to back like this, but since Jmei is always right it seems, I have to agree. I live in Nats Country, and im here to tell you, they don't want Owens really, Swihart is eh with my baseball friends and MASN, but Mookie Betts man. They all want Mooks. Friends/fans have told me they'd give up any of their starters for a deal that included Mookie as a centerpiece. This may be because I've told them he's the second coming or they actually know their Stuff. But Either way, unless Mike Trout is playing left field for us in a trade, in an alternate universe of course Or they're offering Kershaw (who I think is a tad overrated). We do whatever it takes to keep Mookie and *gulp" hope he somehow doesn't cross paths with Bora$
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Post by Steve Henley on Jan 28, 2015 3:01:49 GMT -5
Sure Ross will most likely help us more then Ranaudo would have next year. But it's never good to trade number 5 starters for relievers. Last year Ranaudo made seven starts and had 3 quality starts. Sure his numbers weren't that impressive, but he was also closing in on almost a 180 innings which is by far a high for him. He had pitched only 140 innings the year before. Have to say think we sold low, hope I am wrong. Workman, Barnes, Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez, Escobar, Wright - 7 guys who project as pitchers who will be just as good/better than Ranaudo and who need a spot in AAA or the majors. Ranaudo also seems like a terrible fit for the bullpen, which drops his floor below guys like Escobar. The Sox needed to get rid of some of the surplus and they chose the guy with the lowest floor/ceiling combination. I have no problem with it.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 3:09:31 GMT -5
Ahem. Did I miss some sort of cool kids thing here?
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 4:26:15 GMT -5
Did I miss some sort of cool kids thing here? Heaven forbid anyone here should be misconstrued as "cool." One suggestion though - It would help if you add your response to a quote below the quote box itself. Otherwise, it can be hard to tell who said what. Welcome to the show, by the way.
I see on my last post where I strayed, but about which I was referring, did I say something inflammatory/repetitive/otherwise useless? As a longtime lurker, and rarrre poster I appreciate the welcome
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 28, 2015 4:31:24 GMT -5
Sure Ross will most likely help us more then Ranaudo would have next year. But it's never good to trade number 5 starters for relievers. Last year Ranaudo made seven starts and had 3 quality starts. Sure his numbers weren't that impressive, but he was also closing in on almost a 180 innings which is by far a high for him. He had pitched only 140 innings the year before. Have to say think we sold low, hope I am wrong. Workman, Barnes, Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez, Escobar, Wright - 7 guys who project as pitchers who will be just as good/better than Ranaudo and who need a spot in AAA or the majors. Ranaudo also seems like a terrible fit for the bullpen, which drops his floor below guys like Escobar. The Sox needed to get rid of some of the surplus and they chose the guy with the lowest floor/ceiling combination. I have no problem with it. I have no problem with trading him, its the fact that we traded him for a reliever that I have a problem with. I would bet that a ton of teams would have traded you young prospects that are years away for him. That's what I would have done. Also think people are selling Ranaudo short. As a starter I think he is better then Workman, Escobar and Wright.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 4:57:15 GMT -5
Seems like a lot to give up for essentially a lefty specialist if one buys into the splits as the reason for the move You have this backwards-- Ross has smaller-than-average splits, which is to say that he's better vs. RHH and worse versus LHH than the average left-handed relief pitcher. Splits included, it seems as though Ross has regressed every year. Yes last year they moved him to the rotation and back, but even his gb/fb haven't been consistent. The cost control is nice, I just feel like they could have let him dominate AAA again and made him a centerpiece for a bigger deal, because he wont be in Bostons rotation, but he could have netted a larger returm from a NL team in a bigger park
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Post by clutper on Jan 28, 2015 6:43:13 GMT -5
I'm not really going to lament being rid of Ranaudo. His peripherals from last year are spooky: high strand rate, very low BABIP. Given his >50% flyball rate in Boston and career best, better than average 0.59 HR/9 as a PawSox, I figure he was experiencing some real good HR/FB juju as well. FIP pegged him at 3.86 anyhow, which aside from being high is mostly in line with his career norms. Then his cup of coffee went about as poorly as you could conceive. Now it's true that he'd already matched his career high for innings by that point, but the numbers are still pretty damning. He had the second-lowest swinging strike percentage of anyone who'd thrown 30 innings. Even more ominously, the curveball didn't fool a soul. Out of the 132 thrown, four were swung on and missed. Hitters made contact 96%! of the time they offered at the ones going for strikes. And go for strikes they did, because their chase rate was similarly pitiful and the heater was nearly as bad. It's a small sample size, to be sure, but honestly Ranaudo looks a little AAAA. I was hoping we'd use his 2.61 ERA to help lure Chapman away from the dumb Reds. Yet—and you guys obviously know better than I do—somebody somewhere was probably going to include him in their top 100. Right? Why'd we pawn him off for a reliever who got shelled? Obviously, Ross's peripherals are abhorrent. They're so bad that you can basically discount the rotation experiment entirely, if for no other reason than the 2 MPH he lost off his fastball and slider. I'm confident Ross is the same dependable worm killing southpaw he'd always been. His minor league track record kicks the snot out of the months younger Ranaudo's, anyhow. It is my hope that this trade is an example of the Red Sox targeting one of their "guys" the way Billy Beane has been. I don't know what they might see in Ross, but his K/9 does seem to fluctuate year by year from 8+ to <7 and back. The changeup and what FanGraphs calls a cutter look like good pitches across small samples, 'cept he can't throw 'em for strikes. He pounds the zone with everything else more than is normal, yet he sports a below average BB/9 far higher than the ones he had on the farm. Does the FO think the strikeouts are real and the walks are not? He had a 3.39 xFIP last we saw him in the pen. Entering his prime, I think he's at least a safe bet to provide valuable innings the next couple years. Edit: Shoot, I forgot to mention that he's throwing to the outlier best pitch framer in the big leagues now. Shameful! Rangers catchers were deleterious last year and CV is an alien sent from outer space to frame pitches Edit 2: The strikeouts are fairly real. Ross has a 9% swinging strike rate as a reliever and, though he pitches to contact, mostly average plate discipline numbers elsewhere. The American League averages 9.2% swinging strikes and 7.7 K/9. The picture is extremely promising then if we discount his rookie year. Can someone PM me or something and let me know whether it's okay if I bump the Miley thread?
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Post by mannofsteele on Jan 28, 2015 7:19:39 GMT -5
I like the deal as it clears a spot for someone else to take it, and adds a guy who really dials in well as a lefty reliever. I apologize, as I am not as meticulous a Sabremetric poster as many, but I feel much more confident going in with Breslow and Ross than Breslow and Britton or Layne. Could his reverse splits be indicative of the division and ball park?
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 28, 2015 7:50:12 GMT -5
.351 BABIP for Ross last year.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 28, 2015 7:56:50 GMT -5
What would have Webster, De La Rosa, and Ranuado earned a year ago? Opinion: Prospect huggers suck. The majority of these kids fail, anyway, so you really need to drop that kick. I welcome Hamels, Zimmermann, Stras or, pretty much anyone who's bona fide. In return, take your pick of prospects. not one of them is untouchable because we're smarter than that. Wake up, BC Ranaudo probably would have gotten us Ross a year ago. Webster and RDLR probably would have gotten us Miley a year ago. Opinion: Stop being ridiculous.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 28, 2015 7:57:46 GMT -5
I'm not really going to lament being rid of Ranaudo. His peripherals from last year are spooky: high strand rate, very low BABIP. Given his >50% flyball rate in Boston and career best, better than average 0.59 HR/9 as a PawSox, I figure he was experiencing some real good HR/FB juju as well. FIP pegged him at 3.86 anyhow, which aside from being high is mostly in line with his career norms. Then his cup of coffee went about as poorly as you could conceive. Now it's true that he'd already matched his career high for innings by that point, but the numbers are still pretty damning. He had the second-lowest swinging strike percentage of anyone who'd thrown 30 innings. Even more ominously, the curveball didn't fool a soul. Out of the 132 thrown, four were swung on and missed. Hitters made contact 96%! of the time they offered at the ones going for strikes. And go for strikes they did, because their chase rate was similarly pitiful and the heater was nearly as bad. It's a small sample size, to be sure, but honestly Ranaudo looks a little AAAA. I was hoping we'd use his 2.61 ERA to help lure Chapman away from the dumb Reds. Yet—and you guys obviously know better than I do—somebody somewhere was probably going to include him in their top 100. Right? Why'd we pawn him off for a reliever who got shelled? Obviously, Ross's peripherals are abhorrent. They're so bad that you can basically discount the rotation experiment entirely, if for no other reason than the 2 MPH he lost off his fastball and slider. I'm confident Ross is the same dependable worm killing southpaw he'd always been. His minor league track record kicks the snot out of the months younger Ranaudo's, anyhow. It is my hope that this trade is an example of the Red Sox targeting one of their "guys" the way Billy Beane has been. I don't know what they might see in Ross, but his K/9 does seem to fluctuate year by year from 8+ to <7 and back. The changeup and what FanGraphs calls a cutter look like good pitches across small samples, 'cept he can't throw 'em for strikes. He pounds the zone with everything else more than is normal, yet he sports a below average BB/9 far higher than the ones he had on the farm. Does the FO think the strikeouts are real and the walks are not? He had a 3.39 xFIP last we saw him in the pen. Entering his prime, I think he's at least a safe bet to provide valuable innings the next couple years. Edit: Shoot, I forgot to mention that he's throwing to the outlier best pitch framer in the big leagues now. Shameful! Rangers catchers were deleterious last year and CV is an alien sent from outer space to frame pitches Edit 2: The strikeouts are a little real. Ross has a 9% swinging strike rate as a reliever and, though he pitches to contact, mostly average plate discipline numbers elsewhere. The American League averages 9.2% swinging strikes and 7.7 K/9. Can someone PM me or something and let me know whether it's okay if I bump the Miley thread? Welcome to the site! I liked your point on "swings and misses". That was how I saw him.....someone who doesn't fool anyone and someone who is very hittable. That was part of my reasoning earlier that I could not see him as even a decent reliever.
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Post by artfuldodger on Jan 28, 2015 8:39:25 GMT -5
The value seems to be reasonable, but since Ross has options I would prefer to have him start in minors. Ross will be able to find what was missing last year. Plus, the team can start year with 11 pitchers.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 28, 2015 8:48:43 GMT -5
The value seems to be reasonable, but since Ross has options I would prefer to have him start in minors. Ross will be able to find what was missing last year. Plus, the team can start year with 11 pitchers. Layne has options, too. Keeping Britton over Ross seems nuts to me - Britton is the older player, and his upside is basically the pitcher that Ross was in 2012-13. Britton was as bad at Triple-A as Ross was in the majors. If they kept Ross back because they were starting the year with only 11 pitchers I'd be ok with it only if they were using a four-man rotation for a couple weeks, pushing Kelly(or Masterson, I guess) to the pen.
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Post by charliezink16 on Jan 28, 2015 8:54:21 GMT -5
When looking over his spray charts, I found this tidbit interesting. This shows Ross' spray chart vs. RHH's from 2012-2013 (when he was exclusively a reliever). RH hitters rarely pull the ball in the air against him, rather most fly balls/line drives induced go to CF/RF. With Mookie and Rusney out there, I can't complain. To add my two cents, I'm not a huge fan of this trade but it definitely improves the team. I still see Ranaudo's future as a cost controller #4/5 innings-eater. So based strictly off that, we gave up more than we got in return. But the deal makes perfect sense because a) Ranaudo's stuff doesn't play up in the pen the way Workman or Barnes' does, so we don't have much time to wait around on him, and b) BOS has a plethora of readily available starters in AAA. The rotation of Porcello, Buchholz, Miley, Masterson, and Kelly is now set. If one of the above 5 were to go down w/ an injury within the first 1-2 months of the season, Ranaudo would come in handy. But beyond that point in the season I'd expect one or more of Owens/Rodriguez/Johnson/Barnes/Escobar to be ready for a call up. Even within those first two months, you could argue that Workman or Wright would get the call ahead of Ranaudo. So the way I see it, Texas got more value in this deal, but Boston was trading from a position of great strength, so both teams come out victorious. Based off of need, Ross is exactly what we needed. I'd say Ross is a near lock to make the 25-man while Layne/Britton/Breslow battle for 2 spots in the pen. Finally, long live Renaldo.
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