SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Anthony Ranaudo traded to TEX for Robbie Ross Jr
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:13:45 GMT -5
...His only good season was his rookie season,... Say what? His FIP, K/9, and BB/9 were all better in his second season. Let's stay reality-based, please. Both his first two years were good, his third much less so. I don't think the higher BABIP explains it either. As someone else pointed out, this may be the Sox buying low on a decent left-hander who had a down year. That seems like a smart gamble to me, but it is a gamble. It does answer the call for more left-handed relief pitching, something that was missing. As for the value of Ranaudo and what he might bring in lower prospects... why? Does the team just keep loading up on minor leaguers? It's not as if they don't have talent down there. Why more sweepstakes tickets when you can buildout the team for the upcoming season? This is all about the opportunity cost for doing just that. you might not have read earlier, I admitted I stood corrected in a previous discussion on this topic. He was great his rookie year, good his sophomore year although the groundball rate plummetted. Although I never mentioned anything about stockpiling chips, I'll touch on what I said about that earlier too. I feel as though they could have let him dominate triple A again and have him be a piece in a bigger deal than for robbie ross, who while serviceable, I'm not sold on. I feel like ranaudo and some other chips could have netted us a much larger piece. Just an opinion though. I believe I stayed somewhat reality based even in being wrong, he had a higher whip, gave up more hits per 9, even hit more batters his second year,he also finished over a half dozen or so, what would be considered "blowouts" just from looking at his game log on espn in 2013. Just putting a frame of reference to the type of situations he was pitching in
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:16:02 GMT -5
I stand corrected, he had a great season his rookie year, and a good one his sophomore. However, what I was I was trying to point out that it seems his calling card is the groundball, that's all people can talk about. Hes not a lefty specialist. He's not a setup guy, he's a guy with average stuff getting outs with groundballs. And you caught something I missed on the BaBIP/GB thing. which is the reason Badenhop gives up his fair share of hits. My concern is there's no sense of stability in any of his statlines that im looking at. The walk rate from last year scares me, as when teams see a pitcher enough times they start to lay off his pitchers pitches and take the walks, also the 7 HBP in 70 IP?. All that could be being in the rotation, but he spent years in the rotation in the minors, about 250 IP to be exact and performed quite while albeit in A ball. My point was I see no consistency between his two good years (IE his GO/AO) and you mentioned velocity, but does that small of an uptick really mean something? I just don't see an upgrade over a guy like Badenhop or an Albers if you want to hit the time machine It's hard to put much stock in a season where he went back and forth between starting and relieving. Especially as a 24/25 year old. I'll agree if you can concede it's hard to put much stock in a guy who was pitching for a team way out of the race with seemingly no drive. Pitching on fumes when his season should have been shut down. It was obvious he was physically spent, and probably emotionally spent too. I just don't see ross doing something significant in the al east, it's just an opinion, and it's really only based on being a nerd on the ol' MLB package. it's just an opinion
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:23:06 GMT -5
I believe they are viewing Ross as a solution to face right handed batters based on his splits. They are basically replacing Badenhop with him. this was where my issue was. Is robbie ross an upgrade or even a replacement for the type of producton and value Burke gave us in the situatons he was put in?
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:30:49 GMT -5
So unless Ranaudo takes "huge steps", not a couple steps, or even a step (like not gassing out in triple A before his Major league cup of coffee thus ending his career) ill take that as winning 15 games, 200 innings, learns the gyroball, etc. He's out of baseball? He's released? Are you talking about on your Ps3 or have you forgotten about the NL bottom dwellers. Slight exaggeration, but not much. If he continues to walk more batters than he strikes out and his only good pitch doesn't continue to get hit at a 96.3% rate in the strike zone, he won't be in the major leagues. can we include the quality start in NY in their pennant race in front of his family, in this incredibly small MLB sample size too? His track record in triple a wasn't getting his breaking ball hit 96 times out of 100. He wouldn't have won the aaa pitcher of the year. You know, some of those guys he faced played in the show and some go on to play there, some go on to star in the show. I swear it feels like sometimes people try to gag opinions with pillows in the night just for fun. Thought this was a give and take kinda site, not a hierarchy of the right opinions?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 28, 2015 21:48:43 GMT -5
I'll agree if you can concede it's hard to put much stock in a guy who was pitching for a team way out of the race with seemingly no drive. Pitching on fumes when his season should have been shut down. It was obvious he was physically spent, and probably emotionally spent too The physically spent stuff is a reasonable point, but I'm not sure the "team was out of the race" and "emotionally spent" stuff is worth much. I mean, Ranaudo was making his major league debut, so I can't imagine he was just mailing it in and going through the motions. Is robbie ross an upgrade or even a replacement for the type of producton and value Burke gave us in the situatons he was put in? Again, I think you're really underating Badenhop. He was worth 1.0 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR last year, which would be in roughly the top 40 or so relievers in any given year. That's pretty damn great production that many of us took for granted. Ross has had similar seasons in the recent past: he put up 1.1 fWAR and 1.9 rWAR in 2012 and 0.8 fWAR and 1.2 rWAR in his two full seasons as a reliever in 2012 and 2013. Even knocking that down some because of his struggles last year, getting that sort of production from a 25-year-old on a pre-arb contract with four years of team control is pretty valuable. It's certainly not something you can just pluck off the street, like you and others are implying.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2015 21:53:01 GMT -5
BTW one other thing you will notice about Ross is his unusual facial expressions on the mound - I’ve never seen anything quite like it. Maybe it distracts an occasional batter, who knows?
I'm not seeing it. But, I'll definitely be on the look out for it.
For distraction potential, how about these?
Jeff Karstens
Max Scherzer
R.A. Dickey
Madison Bumgarner
Mariah Carey, Princess Leia and Chewbacca
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 28, 2015 21:58:30 GMT -5
I swear it feels like sometimes people try to gag opinions with pillows in the night just for fun. Thought this was a give and take kinda site, not a hierarchy of the right opinions? The fact that others disagree with you does not mean you are being gagged or censored. Just as you're permitted to explain your opinion about a given transaction, others are permitted to disagree with that opinion and explain why. I understand that it can be frustrating to have your opinion criticized, but I encourage you to not take things too personally and recognize that we're all just fans talking about the sport we love, and that it's OK if some of them disagree with you about something.
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 22:06:09 GMT -5
I'll agree if you can concede it's hard to put much stock in a guy who was pitching for a team way out of the race with seemingly no drive. Pitching on fumes when his season should have been shut down. It was obvious he was physically spent, and probably emotionally spent too The physically spent stuff is a reasonable point, but I'm not sure the "team was out of the race" and "emotionally spent" stuff is worth much. I mean, Ranaudo was making his major league debut, so I can't imagine he was just mailing it in and going through the motions. Is robbie ross an upgrade or even a replacement for the type of producton and value Burke gave us in the situatons he was put in? Again, I think you're really underating Badenhop. He was worth 1.0 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR last year, which would be in roughly the top 40 or so relievers in any given year. That's pretty damn great production that many of us took for granted. Ross has had similar seasons in the recent past: he put up 1.1 fWAR and 1.9 rWAR in 2012 and 0.8 fWAR and 1.2 rWAR in his two full seasons as a reliever in 2012 and 2013. Even knocking that down some because of his struggles last year, getting that sort of production from a 25-year-old on a pre-arb contract with four years of team control is pretty valuable. It's certainly not something you can just pluck off the street, like you and others are implying. you may have misunderstood me, I was praising Badenhop for the way he came into games and did his thing on cue. No matter the hitter, men on base, score etc. I ws implying it's hard to find a guy like Burke who provided us with a binkie in the 5th,6th,7th, even 8th inning. I certainly did not take Burke for granTed and was hoping beyond hope he'd be back after '14. I may have sounded like I was saying relievers can be plucked off the street, I was trying to get at the fact that 8 months ago ranaudo was being talked about as one of the centerpieces in a deal that would yield a much higher return of ML experience. When I equated ross to breslow, it was to the better version. I just feel we have several in house options for RHH situations, or even the chips to deal for someone on a higher level than ross. I also btw am high on Layne. Very unique skillset, and pitch mix/windup. I'm Of the mind he's more than a left on left only guy.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Jan 28, 2015 22:06:52 GMT -5
I believe they are viewing Ross as a solution to face right handed batters based on his splits. They are basically replacing Badenhop with him. this was where my issue was. Is robbie ross an upgrade or even a replacement for the type of producton and value Burke gave us in the situatons he was put in? Had Burke priced himself out of his role? I tend to think bc would have liked to resign him, but something caused it to not happen. Two candidates are price or years. In my mind, Ross is purely a bullpen arm. If his velocity returns and he can get hitters out, then it is in the Boston bullpen. Otherwise it is in Pawtucket.
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 22:15:52 GMT -5
I swear it feels like sometimes people try to gag opinions with pillows in the night just for fun. Thought this was a give and take kinda site, not a hierarchy of the right opinions? The fact that others disagree with you does not mean you are being gagged or censored. Just as you're permitted to explain your opinion about a given transaction, others are permitted to disagree with that opinion and explain why. I understand that it can be frustrating to have your opinion criticized, but I encourage you to not take things too personally and recognize that we're all just fans talking about the sport we love, and that it's OK if some of them disagree with you about something. I appreciate your concern btw, but I'll soldier on I was touching on sometimes things might get to a point of agreeing to disagree, instead of pages of back and forth over the same topic. It starts to look like opining and/or complaing just for the sake of it.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan06 on Jan 28, 2015 22:17:30 GMT -5
It's hard to put much stock in a season where he went back and forth between starting and relieving. Especially as a 24/25 year old. I was only pointing out that there are other places to get plain relievers, rather than a potential #3. I don't see much in Ross, it's an opinion I think even the most optimistic projections for Anthony Ranaudo would consider him a #5 starter at best, maybe reach #4 if something clicks and the velocity slightly ticks up. Both of which are, yes, clearly more valuable spots than a reliever however... A more reasonable projection for the 25 year is that he is a solid middle reliever at best. Not that, that isn't something a player can make an MLB career out of, but as he progressed through the Red Sox system, the shine quickly wore off Ranaudo. His control never improved, neither did his 3rd or 4th offerings.
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 22:18:45 GMT -5
this was where my issue was. Is robbie ross an upgrade or even a replacement for the type of producton and value Burke gave us in the situatons he was put in? Had Burke priced himself out of his role? I tend to think bc would have liked to resign him, but something caused it to not happen. Two candidates are price or years. In my mind, Ross is purely a bullpen arm. If his velocity returns and he can get hitters out, then it is in the Boston bullpen. Otherwise it is in Pawtucket. I may be in the minority, but I'm in the camp that thinks BB was as important as Taz even, although Taz did take less money than BB's asking price. I could be wrong
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 28, 2015 22:25:59 GMT -5
The physically spent stuff is a reasonable point, but I'm not sure the "team was out of the race" and "emotionally spent" stuff is worth much. I mean, Ranaudo was making his major league debut, so I can't imagine he was just mailing it in and going through the motions. Again, I think you're really underating Badenhop. He was worth 1.0 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR last year, which would be in roughly the top 40 or so relievers in any given year. That's pretty damn great production that many of us took for granted. Ross has had similar seasons in the recent past: he put up 1.1 fWAR and 1.9 rWAR in 2012 and 0.8 fWAR and 1.2 rWAR in his two full seasons as a reliever in 2012 and 2013. Even knocking that down some because of his struggles last year, getting that sort of production from a 25-year-old on a pre-arb contract with four years of team control is pretty valuable. It's certainly not something you can just pluck off the street, like you and others are implying. you may have misunderstood me, I was praising Badenhop for the way he came into games and did his thing on cue. No matter the hitter, men on base, score etc. I ws implying it's hard to find a guy like Burke who provided us with a binkie in the 5th,6th,7th, even 8th inning. I certainly did not take Burke for granTed and was hoping beyond hope he'd be back after '14. I may have sounded like I was saying relievers can be plucked off the street, I was trying to get at the fact that 8 months ago ranaudo was being talked about as one of the centerpieces in a deal that would yield a much higher return of ML experience. When I equated ross to breslow, it was to the better version. I just feel we have several in house options for RHH situations, or even the chips to deal for someone on a higher level than ross. I also btw am high on Layne. Very unique skillset, and pitch mix/windup. I'm Of the mind he's more than a left on left only guy. Ah, my mistake. I certainly know others were taking that sort of thing for granted and mistakenly thought you were one of them. I will say that if you thought Ranaudo could have brought back some huge return eight months ago, that was probably wishful thinking. He didn't crack any top 100s, and though he might have been in that next tier or two, guys like that just aren't centerpieces for star or even average players (see the Gallardo trade or the Latos trade).
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 22:30:48 GMT -5
you may have misunderstood me, I was praising Badenhop for the way he came into games and did his thing on cue. No matter the hitter, men on base, score etc. I ws implying it's hard to find a guy like Burke who provided us with a binkie in the 5th,6th,7th, even 8th inning. I certainly did not take Burke for granTed and was hoping beyond hope he'd be back after '14. I may have sounded like I was saying relievers can be plucked off the street, I was trying to get at the fact that 8 months ago ranaudo was being talked about as one of the centerpieces in a deal that would yield a much higher return of ML experience. When I equated ross to breslow, it was to the better version. I just feel we have several in house options for RHH situations, or even the chips to deal for someone on a higher level than ross. I also btw am high on Layne. Very unique skillset, and pitch mix/windup. I'm Of the mind he's more than a left on left only guy. Ah, my mistake. I certainly know others were taking that sort of thing for granted and mistakenly thought you were one of them. I will say that if you thought Ranaudo could have brought back some huge return eight months ago, that was probably wishful thinking. He didn't crack any top 100s, and though he might have been in that next tier or two, guys like that just aren't centerpieces for star or even average players (see the Gallardo trade or the Latos trade). always had love for the human worm killer. I meant ranaudo during his triple a run, plus a couple other pieces not including mooks, Blake, henry, Eduardo (if he was around then) for something we needed at the time. Like a replacement level OF/3rd baseman. Don't get me wrong I believe Ranaudo overachieved in MILB, but achieved nonetheless
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 29, 2015 0:45:01 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 29, 2015 5:03:29 GMT -5
Interesting article which pretty much applies in general to all of the new pitchers since they are all ground ball specialists. Couple Hanigan and Vazquez pitch framing strength (Swihart an unknown but there's no reason to believe he isn't at least average) and Vazquez & Swihart's abilities at throwing out runners and the Sox are looking more and more like this is the specific plan towards the future. Another note here is that with all the ground balls, 2016 plan B might make Marrero rather than Cecchini the more viable option.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jan 29, 2015 7:30:31 GMT -5
Ah, my mistake. I certainly know others were taking that sort of thing for granted and mistakenly thought you were one of them. I will say that if you thought Ranaudo could have brought back some huge return eight months ago, that was probably wishful thinking. He didn't crack any top 100s, and though he might have been in that next tier or two, guys like that just aren't centerpieces for star or even average players (see the Gallardo trade or the Latos trade). always had love for the human worm killer. I meant ranaudo during his triple a run, plus a couple other pieces not including mooks, Blake, henry, Eduardo (if he was around then) for something we needed at the time. Like a replacement level OF/3rd baseman. Don't get me wrong I believe Ranaudo overachieved in MILB, but achieved nonetheless Exactly. And you are not the only one that thinks Ranaudo overachieved in MiLB. Like all MLB organizations. I'm sure the Sox didn't turn down some great trade that people think might have been available. If you were ok with trading Ranaudo last year for a replacement level 3B or OF, why again is not ok to trade him now (when he has a little less value - and may increase his value or may - as the Sox likely think - further decrease his value this year) for a solid reliever? I think you need to forget about his 2014 and being jerked around from rotation to pen. I think we also need to remember Moonstone's post page 4 that quoted Gammons (I think) where he talked about what the Sox saw in Ross from 2012/2013 - someone on his way to be an elite reliever with his 4-seam/slider/change mix, while last year he relied more on is 2-seam and cutter (and also didn't have a defined role). The Sox clearly see something in Ross and believe they can get him back to that 2012/2013 guy. Let's hope they are right. If they are, this trade is a steal.
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Jan 29, 2015 10:58:52 GMT -5
always had love for the human worm killer. I meant ranaudo during his triple a run, plus a couple other pieces not including mooks, Blake, henry, Eduardo (if he was around then) for something we needed at the time. Like a replacement level OF/3rd baseman. Don't get me wrong I believe Ranaudo overachieved in MILB, but achieved nonetheless Exactly. And you are not the only one that thinks Ranaudo overachieved in MiLB. Like all MLB organizations. I'm sure the Sox didn't turn down some great trade that people think might have been available. If you were ok with trading Ranaudo last year for a replacement level 3B or OF, why again is not ok to trade him now (when he has a little less value - and may increase his value or may - as the Sox likely think - further decrease his value this year) for a solid reliever? I think you need to forget about his 2014 and being jerked around from rotation to pen. I think we also need to remember Moonstone's post page 4 that quoted Gammons (I think) where he talked about what the Sox saw in Ross from 2012/2013 - someone on his way to be an elite reliever with his 4-seam/slider/change mix, while last year he relied more on is 2-seam and cutter (and also didn't have a defined role). The Sox clearly see something in Ross and believe they can get him back to that 2012/2013 guy. Let's hope they are right. If they are, this trade is a steal. I think our needs were much different last year than this year and don't get me wrong, I hope your dead right. Simply talking about last year, and I may have exaggerated on replacement level but think 260/320/400 ish with a decent glove for ranaudo and some minor pieces last year would hAve been the judged as well, but he would have been our best outfielder, and probably our best infielder leaving out pedeys defense. I rrally hope they do see something in him, something more than an average reliever I don't see. And I love gammons, but his stuff wasn't elite In 2012, and thay pitch mix doesn't replace BB which is what people are saying with all the grounder he'll induce. I simply came into this thread with the idea that an NL team might value Ranaudo and pieces more, and given more than Robbie Ross. Either way Ross is 'one of us' now, and I certainly don't wish a Mujica like start for him, just so I can come back here and rah-rah
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 29, 2015 11:05:32 GMT -5
I'm sure the Red Sox would have loved to have traded Ranaudo last year for this hypothetical everyday player who may not actually exist but I seriously doubt it was possible. Very few teams were selling at the deadline, and out of those, was there one that A) had this type of player B) wanted to trade this player and C) liked Ranaudo enough to want to make the deal? Seems unlikely to me.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jan 29, 2015 11:30:14 GMT -5
Uhh according to pitch fx Archer, Miller, Kelly and Gray all throw multiple pitches. Johnson according to wikipedia threw a fourseam, slider, and a split finger that acted like a changeup and Santana threw a slider to compliment his devastating circle change and fastball. Even Ranaudo throws a changeup and a curve. I can't get fangraphs when I am here but is it possible that they are not differentiating between different types of fastballs? A cutter is a pitch that is thrown hard, but it acts like a breaking pitch.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 29, 2015 11:42:07 GMT -5
The Fangraphs article referenced above applied a 10% cutoff, so if any pitcher threw a pitch less than 10% of the time, it didn't count. A lot of pitchers have show-me or throwaway third/fourth pitches, and I think you have to apply some sort of cutoff.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jan 29, 2015 11:44:37 GMT -5
He said starter. But there are a fair amount of SPs that ony throw 2 pitches. Masterson I believe is considered to pretty much be a two pitch guy. I know, but Mcgee is just so bizarre I thought I'd mention him. McGee does throw a curveball. Yes he's mostly attacking hitters with a fastball that he can get up to 100 MPH, but he does throw a curve every once in a while.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 29, 2015 11:57:30 GMT -5
Talking about 2 pitch starting pitchers seems a little irrelevant, as all of them have two plus to elite pitches and/or plus to elite control/command, none of which Ranaudo has. He has never even flashed any of this. So yeah it's possible, but I might also win the lottery.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jan 29, 2015 12:17:12 GMT -5
The Fangraphs article referenced above applied a 10% cutoff, so if any pitcher threw a pitch less than 10% of the time, it didn't count. A lot of pitchers have show-me or throwaway third/fourth pitches, and I think you have to apply some sort of cutoff. Most of the pitchers that guidas mentioned made that cutoff according to pitch fx. Those that didn't, like Miller, threw multiple pitches less than 10% of the time that added up to more than 10% of pitches thrown. Pitch fx does have a limitation in that it's very easy to put pitches in the wrong bucket.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jan 29, 2015 13:05:47 GMT -5
Talking about 2 pitch starting pitchers seems a little irrelevant, as all of them have two plus to elite pitches and/or plus to elite control/command, none of which Ranaudo has. He has never even flashed any of this. So yeah it's possible, but I might also win the lottery. Besides Ranaudo threw three pitches at least 10% of the time.
|
|
|