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Top 100/top 10 prospect rankings 2015
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Post by raftsox on Feb 26, 2015 9:42:36 GMT -5
It's crazy to think how amazing the Astros system could be of they had drafted differently. Buxton instead of Correa (whom I love anyway) Bryant instead of Appel. Rodon instead of Aiken. It's not like Appel and Correa have already proved to be terrible picks. Correa is a top 5 prospect and Appel is a top 100 prospect. They're not terrible picks; just not as good as they could have done in a very realistic sense. (Not in the "Lugo cost us Porcello!" mold of hypotheticals.)
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 26, 2015 10:37:32 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Feb 26, 2015 11:36:59 GMT -5
It's not like Appel and Correa have already proved to be terrible picks. Correa is a top 5 prospect and Appel is a top 100 prospect. They're not terrible picks; just not as good as they could have done in a very realistic sense. (Not in the "Lugo cost us Porcello!" mold of hypotheticals.) Well, Houston drafted Correa in part to save money to sign other guys later in the draft. So it's not a purse Correa v Buzton thing. Additionally, only taking the second best player in a draft is not something you always regret. For instance, I doubt the Rockets lost a ton of sleep over drafting Hakeem Olajuwon over Michael Jordan in 1984.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 26, 2015 12:22:55 GMT -5
There's a real chance Correa turns out better player than Buxton anyway. Much, much, much too early to play what-ifs with that.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 26, 2015 12:47:41 GMT -5
There's a real chance Correa turns out better player than Buxton anyway. Much, much, much too early to play what-ifs with that. Sometimes I think both get too much credit for everything they do.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 26, 2015 12:57:57 GMT -5
There's a real chance Correa turns out better player than Buxton anyway. Much, much, much too early to play what-ifs with that. Sometimes I think both get too much credit for everything they do. How so?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 26, 2015 13:06:25 GMT -5
Sometimes I think both get too much credit for everything they do. How so? I don't know. I just think people go overboard projecting them sometimes. Ive seen 70 and 65 grades in potential power for Correa and Buxton which I don't think either have in them. Also not fully confident that Correa stays at SS. I fully accept them as the 2 of the top 3 specs in baseball though. I may have overstated my thoughts earlier.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2015 15:56:57 GMT -5
Luis Diaz as the #10 or #12 (article is inconsistent) prospect in this system is LOL-worthy. He actually says here that he ranks based on stats. The first one he looks for for hitters is OPS. No thanks.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 26, 2015 16:04:29 GMT -5
Luis Diaz as the #10 or #12 (article is inconsistent) prospect in this system is LOL-worthy. He actually says here that he ranks based on stats. The first one he looks for for hitters is OPS. No thanks. He also says this in the comments: I didn't even notice Diaz, that's pretty bad.
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Post by soxfan06 on Feb 26, 2015 17:14:57 GMT -5
Luis Diaz as the #10 or #12 (article is inconsistent) prospect in this system is LOL-worthy. He actually says here that he ranks based on stats. The first one he looks for for hitters is OPS. No thanks. Shame he's making Sickels look bad on his site.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2015 17:51:36 GMT -5
Luis Diaz as the #10 or #12 (article is inconsistent) prospect in this system is LOL-worthy. He actually says here that he ranks based on stats. The first one he looks for for hitters is OPS. No thanks. Shame he's making Sickels look bad on his site. Meh, they've probably both been to the same number of games involving Red Sox affiliates in the past few years.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 26, 2015 18:53:34 GMT -5
Luis Diaz as the #10 or #12 (article is inconsistent) prospect in this system is LOL-worthy. He actually says here that he ranks based on stats. The first one he looks for for hitters is OPS. No thanks. Then its even more strange that he would put Chris Acosta at #20....given the lack of...you know...stats
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2015 22:52:11 GMT -5
I also found it curious that he has Acosta ahead of Espinoza whereas most have it the other way around (except MLB a while ago who ranked Acosta higher). Neither one has pitched, how is that changed ?
He did his homework at least, I'm guessing most analysts don't even know who Acosta or Espinoza are.
I also think Gunkle's placement is a bigger error than Diaz' placement. To me, there's decent upside for Diaz but I don't see it for Gunkle.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 7, 2015 21:22:22 GMT -5
Here's a compilation and consensus ranking from all credible sources known to me: Alex Speier at Baseball America (BA), Sox Prospects (SP), the Sox Prospects community vote (Co), Kiley McDaniel at FanGraphs (FG), John Sickels (JS), Keith Law of ESPN (KL), Chris Mellen at Baseball Prospectus (BP), Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com (ML), and Chris Crawford of Draft to the Show (CC).
It excludes Castillo and Moncada as well as Ranaudo and other players jettisoned since the individual rankings were published. Cody Kukuk, too. Since we don't know who KL's #16 prospect was and I didn't want to guess, I ranked his 17 through 20 guys as 16 through 19. (And it may well have been Ranaudo, even though his list went up a few days after that trade.)
The consensus ranking was done by ranking unranked or tiered players (e.g., BA depth chart guys or prospects name-checked after the list proper, denoted below as HM) according to the consensus of everyone else. It becomes pretty arbitrary past about 50. BA and SP were weighted 125% and Crawford, who has less of a rep than the others, 75%.
You can see that Cecchini, Barnes, and Johnson are pretty much in a dead heat for 6th through 8th. Margot and Devers, Chavis and Marrero, Kopech and Ball, Coyle and Escobar, and Travis and Rijo are also very close to being ties.
Rnk Ave Name BA SP Co FG JS KL BP MLB CC 1 1.2 Blake Swihart 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2.1 Henry Owens 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 3.7 Edua. Rodriguez 3 5 4 2 3 3 4 6 3 4 4.3 Manuel Margot 6 3 3 4 5 5 3 5 4 5 4.6 Rafael Devers 5 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 6 7.2 Garin Cecchini 11 9 9 6 6 6 8 3 6 7 7.3 Matt Barnes 7 7 6 8 7 7 7 10 7 7 7.3 Brian Johnson 4 6 7 7 9 8 9 8 10 9 9.2 Michael Chavis 9 8 8 10 12 10 6 13 8 10 9.5 Deven Marrero 8 11 12 9 8 9 -- 9 9 11 12.2 Michael Kopech 13 10 14 11 15 12 10 14 13 12 12.3 Trey Ball 14 12 10 12 16 13 -- 11 11 13 13.5 Sean Coyle 15 13 12 14 11 17 -- 12 16 14 13.8 Edwin Escobar 16 14 13 22 13 11 -- 7 15 15 15.0 Sam Travis 10 17 16 13 20 14 -- 20 12 16 15.3 Wendell Rijo 22 16 15 15 10 18 11 15 17 17 17.2 Te. Stankiewicz 18 19 17 16 17 15 -- -- -- 18 18.0 Javier Guerra 12 15 26 17 HM 16 -- -- -- 19 18.9 Travis Shaw 17 18 20 20 HM -- -- 17 -- 20 21.4 Henry Ramos 27 22 21 21 HM -- -- 18 -- 21 21.7 Carlos Asuaje 23 29 18 26 18 19 -- -- -- 22 22.7 Simon Mercedes DC 23 23 23 HM -- -- 16 -- 23 22.8 Ander. Espinoza DC 25 27 18 20 -- -- -- 14 24 23.6 Bryce Brentz 19 28 25 19 -- -- -- 19 -- 24 23.6 Nick Longhi 25 20 19 27 HM -- -- -- -- 26 24.5 Heath Hembree DC 21 29 24 14 -- -- -- -- 27 25.0 Steven Wright 20 27 22 HM HM -- -- -- -- 28 27.1 Luis Diaz DC 26 24 25 HM -- -- -- -- 29 28.0 Jake Cosart 29 24 31 HM HM -- -- -- -- 30 29.0 Justin Haley 26 32 30 HM HM -- -- -- -- 31 29.8 Mauricio Dubon 21 36 28 HM -- -- -- -- -- 32 32.3 Dalier Hinojosa DC 33 39 HM HM -- -- -- -- 33 32.7 Christo. Acosta DC 31 32 -- 20 -- -- -- -- 34 33.8 Danny Mars DC 38 35 HM HM -- -- -- -- 35 34.3 Joe Gunkel 24 35 36 -- HM -- -- -- -- 36 35.2 Pat Light 28 41 41 HM -- -- -- -- -- 37 36.2 Noe Ramirez DC 30 33 -- HM -- -- -- -- 38 38.2 Kevin McAvoy DC 42 46 HM -- -- -- -- -- 39 39.5 Yoan Aybar DC 48 45 HM -- -- -- -- -- 40 39.6 Jamie Callahan DC 34 37 -- -- -- -- -- -- 41 41.0 Victor Acosta DC 39 38 -- -- -- -- -- -- 42 42.4 Reed Gragnani DC 59 42 HM -- -- -- -- -- 43 42.6 Jhonathan Diaz -- 47 34 HM -- -- -- -- -- 44 43.9 Keu. De La Cruz DC 56 40 -- -- -- -- -- -- 45 44.6 Jonathan Aro DC 40 47 -- -- -- -- -- -- 46 46.2 L. Alex. Basabe DC 45 67 HM -- -- -- -- -- 47 46.2 Keith Couch DC 44 44 -- -- -- -- -- -- 48 46.8 Enmanu. DeJesus -- 46 48 HM -- -- -- -- -- 49 48.6 Josh Ockimey DC 49 50 -- -- -- -- -- -- 50 49.5 Tzu-Wei Lin DC -- 57 HM -- -- -- -- -- 51 50.2 German Taveras -- 37 54 -- -- -- -- -- -- 52 51.3 Jantzen Witte DC -- 43 -- -- -- -- -- -- 53 53.3 Trenton Kemp DC 50 62 -- -- -- -- -- -- 54 54.1 Jeff Fernandez -- 53 -- HM -- -- -- -- -- 55 55.3 Jose Almonte -- -- 62 HM -- -- -- -- -- 56 56.0 Karsten Whitson -- 43 65 -- -- -- -- -- -- 57 58.1 Jordan Betts DC -- 65 -- -- -- -- -- -- 57 58.1 Daniel Gonzalez DC -- 65 -- -- -- -- -- -- 59 58.4 Ty Buttrey -- -- 65 HM -- -- -- -- -- 60 58.8 Migu. Celestino -- 54 55 -- -- -- -- -- -- 61 59.8 Robby Scott -- 58 54 -- -- -- -- -- -- 62 62.2 Kyle Martin DC -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 62 62.2 Daniel McGrath DC -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 64 64.0 Gerson Bautista -- -- -- HM -- -- -- -- -- 64 64.0 Sergio Gomez -- -- -- HM -- -- -- -- -- 64 64.0 Javi. Rodriguez -- -- -- HM -- -- -- -- -- 64 64.0 Elwin Tejeda -- -- -- HM -- -- -- -- -- 68 65.6 Gabe Speier -- -- 49 -- -- -- -- -- -- 69 66.8 Cole Sturgeon -- -- 52 -- -- -- -- -- -- 70 67.5 Ben Moore -- 51 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 71 68.5 Keivin Heras -- 52 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 72 69.6 Alixon Suarez -- -- 56 -- -- -- -- -- -- 73 70.7 Joseph Monge -- -- 58 -- -- -- -- -- -- 74 71.2 Mike Miller -- 55 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 75 72.9 Williams Jerez -- -- 60 -- -- -- -- -- -- 75 72.9 Aneury Tavarez -- -- 60 -- -- -- -- -- -- 77 73.8 Marco Hernandez -- 57 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 78 74.9 Heri Quevedo -- 60 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
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Post by jmei on Mar 8, 2015 10:57:56 GMT -5
Thanks for doing the legwork-- interesting stuff.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 8, 2015 18:20:23 GMT -5
Cool. Do you have that in a spreadsheet by any chance? Couple lists on there that I actually pay no attention to, and I'm wondering what the composite would look like without them. Also, I don't believe MLB ever released new lists. If you look at the list currently posted for the Red Sox, the URL includes "y2014". Just looking at the outlierishness, to make up a word, of Cecchini at 3, Escobar at 7 and ranking Swihart behind Owens gives me pause. EDIT: Yeah, if you look at their top 100 here: m.mlb.com/prospects/2015, they have Swihart ahead of Owens, followed by Rodriguez, Devers, and Margot. The current list agrees with how the current Red Sox prospects ranked in last year's top 100, which had Cecchini at 55. That's definitely last year's list, updated after trades and mid-season tinkering. EDIT2: Jim CallisVerified account ?@jimcallismlb We'll start rolling out lists by division this week. @jphils90: when does the @mlbpipeline release their top 30 prospects by club?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 8, 2015 22:59:17 GMT -5
Cool. Do you have that in a spreadsheet by any chance? Couple lists on there that I actually pay no attention to, and I'm wondering what the composite would look like without them. Also, I don't believe MLB ever released new lists. If you look at the list currently posted for the Red Sox, the URL includes "y2014". Just looking at the outlierishness, to make up a word, of Cecchini at 3, Escobar at 7 and ranking Swihart behind Owens gives me pause. EDIT: Yeah, if you look at their top 100 here: m.mlb.com/prospects/2015, they have Swihart ahead of Owens, followed by Rodriguez, Devers, and Margot. The current list agrees with how the current Red Sox prospects ranked in last year's top 100, which had Cecchini at 55. That's definitely last year's list, updated after trades and mid-season tinkering. EDIT2: Jim CallisVerified account ?@jimcallismlb We'll start rolling out lists by division this week. @jphils90: when does the @mlbpipeline release their top 30 prospects by club? I do indeed have the spreadsheet. Let me wait till I update it with the new MLB rankings, though! (That they included Rodriguez made me think it may have been updated, but as you say, they just tinkered with it to reflect trades.) Who is it that you'd like to exclude? Now is probably the time for anyone to chime in with different weights for the individual lists, in fact. No one caught that I included Myles Smith, forgetting that he was the guy traded for Spruill. Not looking forward to doing the entire ranking process again, but I'm too much of perfectionist not to. When the time comes, I'll delete the above and add the revised ranking as a new post.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 9, 2015 10:04:51 GMT -5
Not a ranking but an article on defensive center fielders in the minors. On Margot: Manuel Margot, Red Sox -- Evaluators in the South Atlantic League were quick to group Margot and Dahl last year as players who stood out both for their speed and knack for picking up the ball after contact. Margot's arm isn't as strong as Dahl's and his routes aren't as consistent, but he's just as good, if not better, at reading the ball off the bat and has a tick more speed.
If you want to know how the 20-year-old developed those reactions, Class A Greenville manager Darren Fenster suggests you show up early and watch him during batting practice. While his teammates take their hacks, Margot stations himself in center, chasing flies gap to gap like a dog let loose on a tennis court.
"This kid loves the game as much as anybody I've ever been around, and I think the way he kind of goes out and track things down during [batting practice] indicates how much he loves to play," Fenster said. "He'll get one ball in right-center, then there will be one in left-center and you'll just see him bolting all the way across the outfield. You do that for 140 days over the regular season, plus Spring Training and instructs, and this guy is just getting a ton of reps on balls off the bat, as good a rep as you can get."
Margot isn't quite a finished product, but he's close to Major League-ready defensively. The native of the Dominican Republic may add a little arm strength, and Fenster still thinks his routes could improve. If the latter develops -- and Fenster believes strongly it will -- Margot could be a perennial Gold Glove candidate in center by 2017 or so.www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150309&content_id=111030456&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 12, 2015 21:37:03 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Mar 12, 2015 23:27:50 GMT -5
I really think Margot (especially) and Devers are primed to jump into the top-20-25. Both were young for their leagues last year, and Devers just has that hit tool. Also, the BA article that showed Margot's power-contact combo (top quartile for both ISO and lowest K%) really gave me hope that he'll continue to improve given that contact rate and BB rate really generally are significantly impacted when a player is "young" for his league. That Margot lit it up after being promoted to Salem was a great sign. I can imagine that he'll get the Mookie treatment with rapid promotion as long as he keeps improving at the rate he has. Gotta love a GG-caliber CF with 50-steal potential who looks like he can hit .280/.360/.450. Their system is in amazing shape.
My deep sleeper pick is Jared Cosart, though. His delivery needs work but his arm speed is awesome, and he's got so little wear and tear and so few reps, I can't help but think that a few tweaks and extra reps, and he'll be leaping up the ranks.
All of this bounty and the #7 overall pick in the draft might not even crack the top-10! How's that for depth?
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Post by telson13 on Mar 13, 2015 0:33:59 GMT -5
This might affect my top-10 a bit; certainly it sheds light on potential breakout prospects and guys (Asuaje? Gragnani?) who might be more valuable than at first glance. Fascinating info here, on why Mookie rules even more than we thought, and why Margot's skillset may be even more valuable than it currently seems: www.baseballamerica.com/majors/strikeout-really-just-another-context-todays-game/This shows, among other things, how drafting and developing for era, rather than "fixed thinking" (i.e, HR power is important) drafting, is key for success.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 13, 2015 1:20:23 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 13, 2015 7:56:41 GMT -5
All of this bounty and the #7 overall pick in the draft might not even crack the top-10! How's that for depth? I'd never thought of it this way, but you're absolutely right. I'd have someone like Funkhouser between Cecchini and Kopech, putting him #11 on a list that includes Moncada. That's pretty amazing thought.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 13, 2015 8:34:29 GMT -5
All of this bounty and the #7 overall pick in the draft might not even crack the top-10! How's that for depth? I'd never thought of it this way, but you're absolutely right. I'd have someone like Funkhouser between Cecchini and Kopech, putting him #11 on a list that includes Moncada. That's pretty amazing thought. That's why I'm hoping they shoot for ceiling over floor...they don't need another potential #3 starter. Their system is already littered with 2a/3/4 guys. Not that they aren't valuable, and not that I don't appreciate that depth. I've seen Owens pitch (including Portland last July 6, when he went 8IP, 3H, 11K, barely scraping 91 but absolutely fooling everyone), and I like Barnes' stuff, and I'm really excited about Rodriguez. Kopech, Ball, Cosart, Espinoza, and Acosta all have upside but there's nobody yet who says "#1" let alone "ace." I miss watching Pedro and, to a lesser extent, Clemens. As unlikely as HOF-caliber players are, or even "aces" like Scherzer or Halladay or Schilling, I really, really hope the Sox shoot for ceiling. They have the depth to absorb a bust without blinking, both at the MLB cusp and further down the farm.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 13, 2015 9:27:00 GMT -5
All of this bounty and the #7 overall pick in the draft might not even crack the top-10! How's that for depth? I'd never thought of it this way, but you're absolutely right. I'd have someone like Funkhouser between Cecchini and Kopech, putting him #11 on a list that includes Moncada. That's pretty amazing thought. We've been spoiled for a few years now. Ball only cracked the top 10 briefly at the end of 2013. Imagine if he pulls an Owens at Salem? But that's a raw high school pitcher, which we're probably not taking this time.
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