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2015 Official Spring Training thread
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 3, 2015 16:01:36 GMT -5
Steven Wright has seemingly made the team as a long man out of the bullpen. Barnes and Workman optioned. Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 2 min. Red Sox bullpen to start season: Mujica, Ogando, Tazawa, Breslow, Varvaro, Ross, Layne, Wright (who could start April 11) Hm, there's an obvious upgrade to this. The bullpen would be even better if it were: Mujica, Ogando, Tazawa, Varvaro, Ross, Layne, Wright.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 3, 2015 16:51:14 GMT -5
That's a surprise to me. Good for the kids, and for our SP depth, but probably not the absolute best group of pitchers we could have out in the 'pen. I'm sure we'll see both B and W pitching out of the bullpen at points this season. My thinking is that Barnes needed to not only be better, but be significantly better than Ross to beat him out for the spot. Keeping Barnes over Ross would sacrifice SP depth. Farrell also mentioned having 3 lefties to face the Phillies and Yankees, who are both super-LHB heavy.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 3, 2015 18:55:26 GMT -5
Steven Wright has seemingly made the team as a long man out of the bullpen. Barnes and Workman optioned. Jason Mastrodonato ?@jmastrodonato 2 min. Red Sox bullpen to start season: Mujica, Ogando, Tazawa, Breslow, Varvaro, Ross, Layne, Wright (who could start April 11) That's what I expected and hoped. The injuries open up two spots. The first gives you a chance to continue the Ross versus Layne competition for the second lefty spot into the regular season. So the second spot came down to Wright versus Barnes, and as I said earlier, Wright, stretched out as a long guy, gives them protection against the downside risk of a Masterson early exit in game 3, plus the option of taking the start on Saturday in NYC.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 3, 2015 20:27:59 GMT -5
Is anyone else out there as excited as me about Barnes's future? He's got a FB with great velocity and movement, his CH is a plus pitch, and his CB looked pretty damn good this spring. His FB command still needs some work, as do both of his secondaries (though if he can hit spots with the FB, probably average for both would be more than sufficient). I know he's considered a 3/4 ceiling guy, but with a little better command, I think he's getting into 1a/2 territory. He's got an ace-quality FB in terms of pure "stuff"...it's just location at this point. Being a NE guy, maybe he's just hitting his stride a little late. He's been very healthy and he adds/subtracts from the FB well. 18K/13IP is awful encouraging. I kinda hate to see him sent down, but it does leave me feeling the Sox brass is maybe expecting him to light it up and force his way into the rotation.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 4, 2015 6:43:52 GMT -5
I was really impressed by Barnes. I expected him to generate some spring training buzz because of his big fastball (actually expected it last year before he got hurt), but it was his curve that got me to upgrade him in my mind. That was getting whiffs in the zone, which makes me think it's a major league weapon going forward. With just a little more tightening of his command, I think he can make it as a starter, maybe a really good one.
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Post by mabrowndog on Apr 4, 2015 8:17:18 GMT -5
Any thoughts on how the PawSox bullpen shakes out? Workman, Hembree, Spruill, Couch & Noe Ramirez are a formidable base. Can we assume Celestino & Hinojosa join them? Did any of the NRIs -- Crosby, Hoffman, Todd, Eveland -- stand out to the SP crew who might have seen them in Fort Myers?
They'll also get Wright back shortly, plus either Layne or Ross once Koji is activated. That's ridiculously deep for a AAA pen, and five of those arms will have option flexibility this season (along with Rodriguez, Barnes & Escobar).
Also, regarding the bench: Montz, Weeks, Bianchi & Quintero? If Humberto opts out, would Berry have the edge for the spot? Or would Tekotte's better bat get the nod? I'm assuming Luis Martinez & Matt Spring will ride the Portland/Pawtucket catching DL shuttle.
And I just realized Justin Henry didn't see any Grapefruit League action, nor is he listed on any of the projected rosters here as fighting for a spot -- and the transactions list shows him as retiring last fall. Was Matt Eddy's report of his re-signing in early March erroneous? Or has he been exclusively in minor league camp?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2015 8:53:18 GMT -5
Any thoughts on how the PawSox bullpen shakes out? Workman, Hembree, Spruill, Couch & Noe Ramirez are a formidable base. Can we assume Celestino & Hinojosa join them? Did any of the NRIs -- Crosby, Hoffman, Todd, Eveland -- stand out to the SP crew who might have seen them in Fort Myers? They'll also get Wright back shortly, plus either Layne or Ross once Koji is activated. That's ridiculously deep for a AAA pen, and five of those arms will have option flexibility this season (along with Rodriguez, Barnes & Escobar). Also, regarding the bench: Montz, Weeks, Bianchi & Quintero? If Humberto opts out, would Berry have the edge for the spot? Or would Tekotte's better bat get the nod? I'm assuming Luis Martinez & Matt Spring will ride the Portland/Pawtucket catching DL shuttle. And I just realized Justin Henry didn't see any Grapefruit League action, nor is he listed on any of the projected rosters here as fighting for a spot -- and the transactions list shows him as retiring last fall. Was Matt Eddy's report of his re-signing in early March erroneous? Or has he been exclusively in minor league camp? Quintero already agreed to stay with the club. Apparently Eveland also accepted assignment to the minors. Justin Henry, as has been reported, is one of the many guys they signed as a player/coach, which is apparently just "coach without an official title like hitting coach" in actual practice. Joe Thurston and Nick Green were others, and Dreily Guerrero retired to take a similar position with the team. I have no idea how they're planning on working that Pawtucket bullpen out. We didn't see any of those guys, Eveland because he was in major league camp as an NRI. The other three weren't NRIs, but honestly, I can't see them being ahead of the crew we have projected to stick in Pawtucket.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 4, 2015 9:02:31 GMT -5
Any thoughts on how the PawSox bullpen shakes out? Workman, Hembree, Spruill, Couch & Noe Ramirez are a formidable base. Can we assume Celestino & Hinojosa join them? Did any of the NRIs -- Crosby, Hoffman, Todd, Eveland -- stand out to the SP crew who might have seen them in Fort Myers? Couch should be starting, no? Hinojosa is surely a lock for the Pawtucket bullpen. Unless the Red Sox come to their senses and DFA Breslow instead. As I understand it Quintero already accepted a $100k bonus to be assigned to AAA and doesn't have another opt-out until June 1st, so he'll surely be in Pawtucket. Bianchi, I have no idea why he's still hanging around, he doesn't strike me as acceptable major-league depth. Would much rather see Quintin Berry get the nod. ZiPS and Steamer, by the way, don't see Tekotte as projecting to bat better than Berry, at least at the major-league level.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 4, 2015 9:20:16 GMT -5
Why the extreme negativity toward Breslow? Did I miss something during spring training?
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 4, 2015 10:26:05 GMT -5
Why the extreme negativity toward Breslow? Did I miss something during spring training? No, I just don't believe he's due for enough of a rebound to get back to replacement level or above. ZiPS and Steamer both project him for around -0.4 WAR, we have tons of options who are going to be better than that.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 4, 2015 11:04:24 GMT -5
Per ESPN Boston, Wright is not actually going to Philly with the team, he will stay in Fort Myers and throw a simulated game. Seems like pretty good odds he starts a game against the Yankees.
Speaking of Philly, I've been thinking about it and ... is there really a reason to have Ortiz play a game at 1B? Seems we should be able to beat the Phillies just fine with Ortiz making only a PH appearance.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2015 11:16:50 GMT -5
Per ESPN Boston, Wright is not actually going to Philly with the team, he will stay in Fort Myers and throw a simulated game. Seems like pretty good odds he starts a game against the Yankees. Speaking of Philly, I've been thinking about it and ... is there really a reason to have Ortiz play a game at 1B? Seems we should be able to beat the Phillies just fine with Ortiz making only a PH appearance. Especially against Hamels. There's not much of a point in him possibly getting hurt when Napoli seems to be in a groove even though it's ST.
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Post by ray88h66 on Apr 4, 2015 12:26:26 GMT -5
If Wright isn't going to Philly, I wonder why the sox didn't go with an extra bat on the bench?
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 4, 2015 12:36:33 GMT -5
If Wright isn't going to Philly, I wonder why the sox didn't go with an extra bat on the bench? The nice thing about having Brock Holt on your bench is that after you've used Ortiz, Craig and Nava as pinch hitters you still have every position backed up. Not much point sending someone to Philly just to sit on the bench.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 4, 2015 12:40:06 GMT -5
If Wright isn't going to Philly, I wonder why the sox didn't go with an extra bat on the bench? The nice thing about having Brock Holt on your bench is that after you've used Ortiz, Craig and Nava as pinch hitters you still have every position backed up. Not much point sending someone to Philly just to sit on the bench. It still doesn't make sense to me to go to Philly with 24 guys.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 4, 2015 12:55:14 GMT -5
The nice thing about having Brock Holt on your bench is that after you've used Ortiz, Craig and Nava as pinch hitters you still have every position backed up. Not much point sending someone to Philly just to sit on the bench. It still doesn't make sense to me to go to Philly with 24 guys. I dunno ... you basically play every game with 21 guys, since the other four are starters who can't pitch that day. If you look at Wright as taking Kelly's place in the rotation, it makes sense, if they're going with a five man rotation. But, does the 10 day rule for recalling guys after they get optioned apply to the beginning of the season? If not, then it wouldn't hurt to option Wright for either another bat or for Workman or Barnes, then call him up for his start. If it does, then this is pretty much all they could do.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 4, 2015 13:02:17 GMT -5
It still doesn't make sense to me to go to Philly with 24 guys. I dunno ... you basically play every game with 21 guys, since the other four are starters who can't pitch that day. If you look at Wright as taking Kelly's place in the rotation, it makes sense, if they're going with a five man rotation. But, does the 10 day rule for recalling guys after they get optioned apply to the beginning of the season? If not, then it wouldn't hurt to option Wright for either another bat or for Workman or Barnes, then call him up for his start. If it does, then this is pretty much all they could do. Right. If the 10 day rule does apply then sure, do it this way. But if you're just giving up an extra guy for no reason then that doesn't make sense to me.
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Post by jmei on Apr 4, 2015 13:06:59 GMT -5
I dunno ... you basically play every game with 21 guys, since the other four are starters who can't pitch that day. If you look at Wright as taking Kelly's place in the rotation, it makes sense, if they're going with a five man rotation. But, does the 10 day rule for recalling guys after they get optioned apply to the beginning of the season? If not, then it wouldn't hurt to option Wright for either another bat or for Workman or Barnes, then call him up for his start. If it does, then this is pretty much all they could do. Right. If the 10 day rule does apply then sure, do it this way. But if you're just giving up an extra guy for no reason then that doesn't make sense to me. It's the 10 day rule, and because Kelly is already starting the season on the DL, you can't use the exception for guys who go on the DL. I think ProJo guys mentioned it in a blog post.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2015 13:20:21 GMT -5
Speaking of Philly, I've been thinking about it and ... is there really a reason to have Ortiz play a game at 1B? Yes. And that is because he is the team's best hitter. Sure, there's a defensive drop-off from Napoli to Ortiz, but it's not like we're talking about shortstop.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 4, 2015 13:24:03 GMT -5
Speaking of Philly, I've been thinking about it and ... is there really a reason to have Ortiz play a game at 1B? Yes. And that is because he is the team's best hitter. Sure, there's a defensive drop-off from Napoli to Ortiz, but it's not like we're talking about shortstop. But it's not like we're talking about the Nationals either.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2015 13:25:06 GMT -5
Right. If the 10 day rule does apply then sure, do it this way. But if you're just giving up an extra guy for no reason then that doesn't make sense to me. It's the 10 day rule, and because Kelly is already starting the season on the DL, you can't use the exception for guys who go on the DL. I think ProJo guys mentioned it in a blog post. Yup. The whole point of Wright making the team is that if he's going to start in NY, he has to be on the roster on opening day or else the roster rules would keep them from being able to call him up.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2015 13:28:10 GMT -5
Yes. And that is because he is the team's best hitter. Sure, there's a defensive drop-off from Napoli to Ortiz, but it's not like we're talking about shortstop. But it's not like we're talking about the Nationals either. Good point, because it is quite certain that the Phillies are going to go 0-162 and don't have a prayer of beating anyone.Last I checked, games against the Phillies count as much as games against the Nationals. If anything, the fact that they suck is more reason to make sure you beat them - you want to take as many of the easy ones as you can so that you don't have to rely on winning the hard ones.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 4, 2015 13:34:58 GMT -5
But it's not like we're talking about the Nationals either. Good point, because it is quite certain that the Phillies are going to go 0-162 and don't have a prayer of beating anyone.Last I checked, games against the Phillies count as much as games against the Nationals. If anything, the fact that they suck is more reason to make sure you beat them - you want to take as many of the easy ones as you can so that you don't have to rely on winning the hard ones. What's really certain is that Ortiz isn't going to play 162 games. And the difference between Ortiz and Napoli is less likely to matter against the Phillies than against the Nationals.
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Post by jmei on Apr 4, 2015 13:56:38 GMT -5
Good point, because it is quite certain that the Phillies are going to go 0-162 and don't have a prayer of beating anyone.Last I checked, games against the Phillies count as much as games against the Nationals. If anything, the fact that they suck is more reason to make sure you beat them - you want to take as many of the easy ones as you can so that you don't have to rely on winning the hard ones. What's really certain is that Ortiz isn't going to play 162 games. And the difference between Ortiz and Napoli is less likely to matter against the Phillies than against the Nationals.I don't think that's true, though. The odds of the Red Sox beating the Phillies are, what, 66/33? Maybe 70/30? It's certainly not automatic. If sitting Ortiz versus any team decreases their odds of winning linearly (e.g., sitting him versus the Phillies drops their odds from 66% to 64% while sitting him versus the Nationals drops their odds from 46% to 44%), which it seems like it does, you shouldn't prefer sitting him versus a bad team.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 4, 2015 14:38:33 GMT -5
With spring training now over, it is very interesting to look through the 40-man roster. Three things stand out: how much turnover there has been on this team in the past couple of years; how many players from the farm system now are on the list; and how many players were acquired from other teams, or as free agents, at low, or relatively low cost in cash or players.
By almost any measure, in most categories, the Red Sox look like a much better and deeper team than they have been for several years. I think the biggest question, maybe the only significant question, is the current starting pitching.
I predicted in the prediction game that the Sox would win 91 games. That's higher than I have predicted earlier, based on analysis of the various player projections. And the reason I increased my projection is that I think the Sox are in a very strong position to upgrade the starting pitching, if needed, between now and the trading deadline. And the upgrades could come either from trades or from promotions from Pawtucket. And it may well be that both occur. The starting rotation at the end of the season may be considerably different, and considerably better, from what it is now.
I think this is going to be a very exciting team to watch. Because I believe that, I subscribed to NESN for the first time.
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