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2015 Official Spring Training thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 21, 2015 10:49:05 GMT -5
More important than hyping up him being the starting RF if he's healthy is hyping up the fact that's he's simply healthy. But he also could easily strain a hammy or pull his back out of no where and be out for weeks, and teams know this. That's why I don't see much of an advantage in holding on to him for a bit to "prove" he's back. I'm willing to trade him for something below his potential value in favor of eradicating the great uncertainty he comes with combined with forcing an MLB-ready talent, who happens to be by far our best lead-off option, to lose at bats. That's just the thing-- teams will make better offers for Victorino if he's made it through all of Spring Training and looks healthy and productive. If they were to trade for him now, they would take on that additional risk of Spring Training injury, which implies they would be willing to offer less now as compared to what they would offer at the end of Spring Training. There's also the fact that another team might lose one of their outfielders during ST to injury, which adds more potential destinations as compared to trying to trade him now. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are in a perfect position to take on that additional risk of injury. If Victorino gets injured, they would be happy to stick him on the DL and kick the outfield logjam can down the road. Similarly, if any of Ramirez, Castillo, Betts, Napoli, Ortiz, Pedroia, or perhaps even Bogaerts/Sandoval get injured during Spring Training and have to miss the start of the season, they'll be glad they kept Victorino, who would probably be the replacement for any of the above in the starting lineup (with other pieces moving around as necessary and Betts retaining a starting spot). Here's how I see it: there's no real disadvantages to keeping Victorino around until the games actually start mattering. The front office/coaching staff can either keep the picture ambiguous or imply that Victorino is in the lead for a starting spot right up until Opening Day without having any tangible negative effects on the team's regular-season performance. Like jimed suggests, the real risk is that Farrell will start Victorino over Betts when the games start counting, but that still means you can wait until Opening Day to resolve the issue before there start being actual negative consequences. Agreed in general but prior to opening day, Victorino comes with the possibility of a QO at the end of the season. That benefits goes away on day one of the season for any team except the Sox.
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Post by jmei on Feb 21, 2015 11:04:03 GMT -5
Good point, but either way, you'd ideally want to trade him before Opening Day.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 21, 2015 11:11:45 GMT -5
Yes, as Gammons put it, soon after ST. Pat's Day. (reference Bradley when the Sox know what they have as options).
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Post by suttree on Feb 21, 2015 11:18:08 GMT -5
With Vic there is depth, without him you are relying on 3 unproven starters in the outfield. Even though I'm optimistic about all 3 of those players, it's a lot of risk.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 21, 2015 11:25:46 GMT -5
With Vic there is depth, without him you are relying on 3 unproven starters in the outfield. Even though I'm optimistic about all 3 of those players, it's a lot of risk. Even with the 3 'unproven starters' in the outfield, you still have Nava, Holt and Craig on the bench without Victorino.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 21, 2015 11:39:06 GMT -5
And JBJ a short ride away.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 21, 2015 11:47:00 GMT -5
I'd toss Brentz in there as well as an MLB-ready weak-side platoon, and probably Cecchini too.
So 7 to 8 deep in the OF. Not too worried about the question marks with all of that depth.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 21, 2015 12:02:40 GMT -5
Petey looks like he's in game shape:
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Post by jmei on Feb 21, 2015 12:11:03 GMT -5
Eh, Nava and Holt and Craig and Bradley and Brentz and Cecchini are all better-than-replacement-level options, but I think they're likely all worse than Victorino on a per-game basis. Because of Victorino's age and injury history, I'm not especially confident in that prediction, but pretty much every one of those guys (except Nava) has pretty significant question marks as well.
I'm not saying you have to hold on to Victorino at all costs, but he does have value to the Red Sox because he's probably their best injury depth option in the outfield. I wouldn't give him away unless the other team is either picking up most of his contract or offering legitimate prospect value in return.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 21, 2015 12:17:15 GMT -5
Eh, Nava and Holt and Craig and Bradley and Brentz and Cecchini are all better-than-replacement-level options, but I think they're likely all worse than Victorino on a per-game basis. Because of Victorino's age and injury history, I'm not especially confident in that prediction, but pretty much every one of those guys (except Nava) has pretty significant question marks as well. I'm not saying you have to hold on to Victorino at all costs, but he does have value to the Red Sox because he's probably their best injury depth option in the outfield. I wouldn't give him away unless the other team is either picking up most of his contract or offering legitimate prospect value in return. It's tough to determine how good Victorino actually will be if healthy, because 2013 is likely not only an outlier, but also the only year he has hit RHP as RH. If I had to guess, I'd say he probably hits the same RH vs RHP as he did LH vs RHP in his career. And that puts him slightly below average overall which is still valuable with his fielding, but not irreplaceable. His terrible walk rates puts his (hiting) floor lower. He would have been a great Gomes replacement, but we also signed Ramirez so there's not much room or need for a platoon.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 21, 2015 12:22:59 GMT -5
Eh, Nava and Holt and Craig and Bradley and Brentz and Cecchini are all better-than-replacement-level options, but I think they're likely all worse than Victorino on a per-game basis. Because of Victorino's age and injury history, I'm not especially confident in that prediction, but pretty much every one of those guys (except Nava) has pretty significant question marks as well. I'm not saying you have to hold on to Victorino at all costs, but he does have value to the Red Sox because he's probably their best injury depth option in the outfield. I wouldn't give him away unless the other team is either picking up most of his contract or offering legitimate prospect value in return. Agreed - even the most optimistic projections of Betts don't have him reaching Victorino's last healthy season in terms of production in 2015(5.6 fWAR in 2013). And considering his 2014 and age, his market is likely pretty brutal. Which leaves the Red Sox with a 'good' problem in that Victorino will have to start (as already stated by Farrell) and if he does well, his value would be up but it would be tough to trade him since he would likely be helping the team win. Somebody who should be in the Majors will have to start in AAA barring injury. In a perfect world: Victorino has a torrid April, the Nationals need an outfielder due to injuries or performance, and Victorino is part of a package for Fister or Zimmermann. But who knows what will end up happening.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 21, 2015 12:26:03 GMT -5
Eh, Nava and Holt and Craig and Bradley and Brentz and Cecchini are all better-than-replacement-level options, but I think they're likely all worse than Victorino on a per-game basis. Because of Victorino's age and injury history, I'm not especially confident in that prediction, but pretty much every one of those guys (except Nava) has pretty significant question marks as well. I'm not saying you have to hold on to Victorino at all costs, but he does have value to the Red Sox because he's probably their best injury depth option in the outfield. I wouldn't give him away unless the other team is either picking up most of his contract or offering legitimate prospect value in return. It's tough to determine how good Victorino actually will be if healthy, because 2013 is likely not only an outlier, but also the only year he has hit RHP as RH. If I had to guess, I'd say he probably hits the same RH vs RHP as he did LH vs RHP in his career. And that puts him slightly below average overall which is still valuable with his fielding, but not irreplaceable. His terrible walk rates puts his (hiting) floor lower. He would have been a great Gomes replacement, but we also signed Ramirez so there's not much room or need for a platoon. Not sure how 2013 is an outlier. He had an identical fWAR of 5.6 in 2011 and he's been a 2.9+ win player since 2007 with the exception of 2014. If he's healthy and hasn't lost a step due to age, then he's a first division starter or better.
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Post by charliezink16 on Feb 21, 2015 13:02:46 GMT -5
@scottlauber Farrell noted that Mookie Betts will be used in both right field and center during spring training. #RedSox
I'd also argue that a healthy Shane Victorino starting in RF and Mookie making the 25-man aren't mutually exclusive. If they think Castillo needs extra time in anything, start him in AAA.
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Post by jmei on Feb 21, 2015 15:37:43 GMT -5
@scottlauber Farrell noted that Mookie Betts will be used in both right field and center during spring training. #RedSox I'd also argue that a healthy Shane Victorino starting in RF and Mookie making the 25-man aren't mutually exclusive. If they think Castillo needs extra time in anything, start him in AAA. Yeah, I think it's possible (maybe even likely) that their best outfield alignment is Ramirez/Betts/Victorino. Castillo starting his career on the bench or in the minors is maybe not the ideal arrangement, but I don't think he's necessarily as guaranteed a spot as some have suggested. (One complicating factor is service time-- if Betts spends more than 80 days in the minors, the Red Sox can get an extra year of team control, while Castillo's team control is set whether he spends time in the minors or not. But I don't think the Red Sox would be willing to keep down a guy who is probably one of their best players for almost half the season, so I don't know how much they're going to take that into account (especially since they declined to pull a similar maneuver with Bogaerts last year).)
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 21, 2015 16:18:02 GMT -5
@scottlauber Farrell noted that Mookie Betts will be used in both right field and center during spring training. #RedSox I'd also argue that a healthy Shane Victorino starting in RF and Mookie making the 25-man aren't mutually exclusive. If they think Castillo needs extra time in anything, start him in AAA. Yeah, I think it's possible (maybe even likely) that their best outfield alignment is Ramirez/Betts/Victorino. Castillo starting his career on the bench or in the minors is maybe not the ideal arrangement, but I don't think he's necessarily as guaranteed a spot as some have suggested. (One complicating factor is service time-- if Betts spends more than 80 days in the minors, the Red Sox can get an extra year of team control, while Castillo's team control is set whether he spends time in the minors or not. But I don't think the Red Sox would be willing to keep down a guy who is probably one of their best players for almost half the season, so I don't know how much they're going to take that into account (especially since they declined to pull a similar maneuver with Bogaerts last year).) 80 days is way too much to be a serious consideration for Betts.
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Post by suttree on Feb 21, 2015 16:22:31 GMT -5
The real question is what are the odds both Victorino and HanRam are healthy come April.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 21, 2015 19:57:43 GMT -5
@scottlauber Farrell noted that Mookie Betts will be used in both right field and center during spring training. #RedSox I'd also argue that a healthy Shane Victorino starting in RF and Mookie making the 25-man aren't mutually exclusive. If they think Castillo needs extra time in anything, start him in AAA. Yeah, I think it's possible (maybe even likely) that their best outfield alignment is Ramirez/Betts/Victorino. Castillo starting his career on the bench or in the minors is maybe not the ideal arrangement, but I don't think he's necessarily as guaranteed a spot as some have suggested. I don't think there's any way of knowing the probability of that being the best outfield alignment. I mean, it's possible, sure, but we just don't know what the team has in Castillo. Which is an argument to hold on to Victorino for a while to see what Castillo's going to bring to the table, I guess. But my issue with Victorino's 2013 is that it was clear hat he benefited greatly from pitchers not knowing how to pitch to him right-handed. The guy got hit 18 times that year ... clearly an outlier there. I mean, he's a good player, don't get me wrong, and I hope another team realizes it and gives something up for him, because I just don't see how the roster works with him on it. If Mookie Betts spends time in Pawtucket, I'm gonna break something.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 21, 2015 22:53:42 GMT -5
Tim Britton ?@timbritton 8h8 hours ago P. S. Allen Craig and David Ortiz are the only two players yet to report to camp. Other 55 are here.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 22, 2015 7:55:04 GMT -5
Here's a statement that surprised me in a post Beyeler's work with HRam in LF: Is chasing 25 fly balls really that much of a death march? I'm pretty sure I could go out there right now and run down 25 fly balls and not show any ill effects, and I'm about 10 years older than Hanley Ramirez. In fact, I'd really enjoy it. Running down fly balls in the outfield was one of my favorite things to do in baseball.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 22, 2015 8:01:12 GMT -5
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Post by mgoetze on Feb 22, 2015 8:55:23 GMT -5
The "list of people who can play LF" is not the same as the "Outfield Depth Chart", FWIW. As far as I'm concerned there's a LF depth chart and a RF/CF depth chart, and on the latter, Betts/Victorino/Castillo are the top 3, #4 is Brock Holt and #5 is Jackie Bradley Jr.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 22, 2015 9:14:24 GMT -5
The "list of people who can play LF" is not the same as the "Outfield Depth Chart", FWIW. As far as I'm concerned there's a LF depth chart and a RF/CF depth chart, and on the latter, Betts/Victorino/Castillo are the top 3, #4 is Brock Holt and #5 is Jackie Bradley Jr. I would go even further and split off RF from CF. Both Nava and Craig should be ahead of Holt on the RF depth chart IMO. CF: Betts-Castillo-Victorino-Bradley-Holt RF: Betts-Victorino-Castillo-Craig-Nava-Bradley-Holt-Brentz LF: Hanley-Craig-Nava-everyone else above-Cecchini-Brentz
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 22, 2015 10:15:49 GMT -5
I'd toss Brentz in there as well as an MLB-ready weak-side platoon, and probably Cecchini too.
So 7 to 8 deep in the OF. Not too worried about the question marks with all of that depth.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2015 11:21:22 GMT -5
It's tough to determine how good Victorino actually will be if healthy, because 2013 is likely not only an outlier, but also the only year he has hit RHP as RH. If I had to guess, I'd say he probably hits the same RH vs RHP as he did LH vs RHP in his career. And that puts him slightly below average overall which is still valuable with his fielding, but not irreplaceable. His terrible walk rates puts his (hiting) floor lower. He would have been a great Gomes replacement, but we also signed Ramirez so there's not much room or need for a platoon. Not sure how 2013 is an outlier. He had an identical fWAR of 5.6 in 2011 and he's been a 2.9+ win player since 2007 with the exception of 2014. If he's healthy and hasn't lost a step due to age, then he's a first division starter or better. I meant his hitting vs RHP, which was a lot higher than it ever had been. His BABIP and HBP% was not sustainable.
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Post by mgoetze on Feb 22, 2015 11:37:51 GMT -5
I would go even further and split off RF from CF. Both Nava and Craig should That's fine for Yankee Stadium, I don't enjoy watching Nava or Craig in RF at Fenway though.
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