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2015 Official Spring Training thread
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Post by jmei on Feb 22, 2015 11:39:58 GMT -5
He's always been pretty bad versus RHP, though, and he's managed to be super valuable in spite of it. His elite defense and baserunning give him a pretty high floor, as does his ability to make contact (at least when he's not injured). There's always a chance that injuries and age have sapped him of those skills, a la Mike Cameron, but that's what everyone said about him after 2012, and he showed the ability to bounce back then.
(Now, we just need another team to buy into the above...)
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 22, 2015 11:40:12 GMT -5
I'd toss Brentz in there as well as an MLB-ready weak-side platoon, and probably Cecchini too. So 7 to 8 deep in the OF. Not too worried about the question marks with all of that depth. Don't forget Jackie Jensen
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 22, 2015 12:04:12 GMT -5
One potential option assuming everyone is healthy is to option Castillio. He hasn't played a lot of baseball over the past year and a half so giving him 10-12 weeks to get ready as opposed to five isn't unreasonable. They don't have to start Betts in Pawtucket, or make an ill advised trade just because Castillio is making a lot of money.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2015 12:16:25 GMT -5
He's always been pretty bad versus RHP, though, and he's managed to be super valuable in spite of it. His elite defense and baserunning give him a pretty high floor, as does his ability to make contact (at least when he's not injured). There's always a chance that injuries and age have sapped him of those skills, a la Mike Cameron, but that's what everyone said about him after 2012, and he showed the ability to bounce back then. (Now, we just need another team to buy into the above...) I was only talking about his hitting vs RHP when I was comparing Betts to him. The dropoff in defense from Victorino to Betts won't be huge, and Betts has the edge in baserunning. I was talking about 2013 as an outlier when he had a 149 wRC+ batting RH vs. RHP. For his career, he has a 95 wRC+ vs RHP batting from both sides. That's why I said that 2013 was likely an outlier in how he hits RHP because I don't think he has simply been making a mistake in switch hitting for his entire career until 2013. And this brings us back to my main point that Betts is almost assuredly better in RF vs. RHP so I don't want to see him on the bench in favor of Victorino when there's a RHP starting. I don't mind Victorino playing vs. LHP.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 22, 2015 12:21:29 GMT -5
No surprises:
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 53m53 minutes ago Farrell identifies six guys as depth starters: Johnson, Escobar, Owens, Barnes, Wright, Rodriguez
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
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Post by jimoh on Feb 22, 2015 12:28:47 GMT -5
People keep saying the dropoff in defense from Victorino from Betts won't be huge, but is this true?
I think of Victorino as "best Sox RF I've ever seen, despite Dewey's status" and Betts as "hey, pretty good for a 2b." If we're lucky Betts becomes a superb RF with experience.
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Post by jmei on Feb 22, 2015 13:08:04 GMT -5
He's always been pretty bad versus RHP, though, and he's managed to be super valuable in spite of it. His elite defense and baserunning give him a pretty high floor, as does his ability to make contact (at least when he's not injured). There's always a chance that injuries and age have sapped him of those skills, a la Mike Cameron, but that's what everyone said about him after 2012, and he showed the ability to bounce back then. (Now, we just need another team to buy into the above...) I was only talking about his hitting vs RHP when I was comparing Betts to him. The dropoff in defense from Victorino to Betts won't be huge, and Betts has the edge in baserunning. I was talking about 2013 as an outlier when he had a 149 wRC+ batting RH vs. RHP. For his career, he has a 95 wRC+ vs RHP batting from both sides. That's why I said that 2013 was likely an outlier in how he hits RHP because I don't think he has simply been making a mistake in switch hitting for his entire career until 2013. And this brings us back to my main point that Betts is almost assuredly better in RF vs. RHP so I don't want to see him on the bench in favor of Victorino when there's a RHP starting. I don't mind Victorino playing vs. LHP. FYI, I don't think anyone is arguing that Victorino should play ahead of Betts (I certainly am not). The question is whether and under what circumstances it makes sense to trade Victorino.
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Post by larrycook on Feb 22, 2015 14:01:42 GMT -5
Assuming victorino is healthy, then an outfield of Castillo, rameriez, betts and victorino had enough at bats for everybody.
Three things I wonder about:
1.) where does Craig fit if he is healthy and hitting like he did in early 2013? 2.) what happens if Castillo hits like Bradley? 3.) what happens if betts goes into a bogey type slump?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 22, 2015 16:14:53 GMT -5
People keep saying the dropoff in defense from Victorino from Betts won't be huge, but is this true? I think of Victorino as "best Sox RF I've ever seen, despite Dewey's status" and Betts as "hey, pretty good for a 2b." If we're lucky Betts becomes a superb RF with experience. I've only seen him play on TV. That's a limitation because they often do not track an outfielder until he's gotten his jump, usually after he's adjusted his route. That's especially so for the right and left fielders, where a camera tracking the ball has to move off center, to focus on those other outfielders. But here's a quote from the BP analyst, Al Skorupa. You can find it in the comments section of Mellen's eval of this year's Sox' prospects (paywall). The BP staff bounces stuff back and forth before publishing their evaluations, so Skorupa had a role to play in those (including the list of the best under-25 players which Betts tops): We really haven't seen enough of Betts in the outfield to punch that ticket, but he has some supporters when it comes to his CF defense.
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Post by cologneredsox on Feb 22, 2015 17:28:26 GMT -5
Let's wait for spring training games before we pencil in where we put each player. That goes to you, too, Mr. Farrell... Uhm... why? It's not like spring training performance translates well to regular season performance. You're totally right. But to debate about that now seems like it's even more hilarious/stupid...
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
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Post by jimoh on Feb 22, 2015 18:09:47 GMT -5
People keep saying the dropoff in defense from Victorino from Betts won't be huge, but is this true? I think of Victorino as "best Sox RF I've ever seen, despite Dewey's status" and Betts as "hey, pretty good for a 2b." If we're lucky Betts becomes a superb RF with experience. I've only seen him play on TV. That's a limitation because they often do not track an outfielder until he's gotten his jump, usually after he's adjusted his route. That's especially so for the right and left fielders, where a camera tracking the ball has to move off center, to focus on those other outfielders. But here's a quote from the BP analyst, Al Skorupa. You can find it in the comments section of Mellen's eval of this year's Sox' prospects (paywall). The BP staff bounces stuff back and forth before publishing their evaluations, so Skorupa had a role to play in those (including the list of the best under-25 players which Betts tops): We really haven't seen enough of Betts in the outfield to punch that ticket, but he has some supporters when it comes to his CF defense. I have no trouble with "at least a plus defender" but was saying that that's actually quite a step down from what Victorino was in 2013, and should be again if he's healthy.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2015 18:12:35 GMT -5
I've only seen him play on TV. That's a limitation because they often do not track an outfielder until he's gotten his jump, usually after he's adjusted his route. That's especially so for the right and left fielders, where a camera tracking the ball has to move off center, to focus on those other outfielders. But here's a quote from the BP analyst, Al Skorupa. You can find it in the comments section of Mellen's eval of this year's Sox' prospects (paywall). The BP staff bounces stuff back and forth before publishing their evaluations, so Skorupa had a role to play in those (including the list of the best under-25 players which Betts tops): We really haven't seen enough of Betts in the outfield to punch that ticket, but he has some supporters when it comes to his CF defense. I have no trouble with "at least a plus defender" but was saying that that's actually quite a step down from what Victorino was in 2013, and should be again if he's healthy. If Betts is at least plus in RF, it's not a huge downgrade defensively. How far beyond plus do you think Victorino will be?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2015 18:14:34 GMT -5
I was only talking about his hitting vs RHP when I was comparing Betts to him. The dropoff in defense from Victorino to Betts won't be huge, and Betts has the edge in baserunning. I was talking about 2013 as an outlier when he had a 149 wRC+ batting RH vs. RHP. For his career, he has a 95 wRC+ vs RHP batting from both sides. That's why I said that 2013 was likely an outlier in how he hits RHP because I don't think he has simply been making a mistake in switch hitting for his entire career until 2013. And this brings us back to my main point that Betts is almost assuredly better in RF vs. RHP so I don't want to see him on the bench in favor of Victorino when there's a RHP starting. I don't mind Victorino playing vs. LHP. FYI, I don't think anyone is arguing that Victorino should play ahead of Betts (I certainly am not). The question is whether and under what circumstances it makes sense to trade Victorino. That sounds pretty much what Farrell says though, and several people are defending him.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 22, 2015 19:38:59 GMT -5
...I have no trouble with "at least a plus defender" but was saying that that's actually quite a step down from what Victorino was in 2013, and should be again if he's healthy. ...a big if.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2015 19:53:01 GMT -5
There's a big difference between using spring training to evaluate a player and using spring training statistics to evaluate one. For players like Victorino and Craig, the coaching staff and front office seeing them on the field and performing is certainly important. That's what's meant when someone says "we'll evaluate them in spring training." It certainly doesn't mean they are going to check the player's slash line an make a decision based on that.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 22, 2015 20:41:15 GMT -5
I would go even further and split off RF from CF. Both Nava and Craig should That's fine for Yankee Stadium, I don't enjoy watching Nava or Craig in RF at Fenway though. If it's just a short-term thing, either Nava or Craig (or Holt) can play RF while Betts or Castillo need to rest/recuperate from something. If it's a longer-term deal involving a DL stint, JBJ is a phone call away. Don't sleep on JBJ, guy can be very useful depth this year. Again, Victorino's a good player and very possibly will have a good year this year, but he's almost entirely redundant on this team right now. It'd be great if he could be around for insurance in case Castillo or Betts completely undershoots the projections, but, ya know, can't plan for every contingency if you keep a billion pitchers every year. I'm with jmei in just hoping some other team gets convinced of his worth during spring training. He's too good to just dump, if he's healthy.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 22, 2015 22:48:47 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 22, 2015 23:06:38 GMT -5
The team has absolutely loaded up on relief pitchers. Given the extreme year-to-year variability of bullpen arms, this is the way to go about this, I believe. Lots of options, and they'll probably let it all sort out during spring training. Maybe Boggs is one part of that puzzle.
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Post by mgoetze on Feb 22, 2015 23:45:49 GMT -5
Given the extreme year-to-year variability of bullpen arms, ...by the time you know which of them are good this year, the season's over.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 23, 2015 0:56:44 GMT -5
By my rudimentary calculations, if the Sox traded Victorino and Mujica for prospects, they could eat some contract and still get under the lux tax for the year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 23, 2015 2:59:06 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 23, 2015 6:47:13 GMT -5
Al is a nice guy. I disagree strongly with the idea that Betts was immediately a very good outfielder though. His reads weren't great early on, although he wasn't a butcher or anything. There was a lot of learning happening during those first months.
He could become a reliably plus outfielder, and perhaps could be out of the box this year, but to assume he will be is a little bit aggressive, in my opinion.
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Post by amfox1 on Feb 23, 2015 9:03:38 GMT -5
By my rudimentary calculations, if the Sox traded Victorino and Mujica for prospects, they could eat some contract and still get under the lux tax for the year. You are correct. I currently have the Red Sox approx. $13.5mm over the luxury tax cap. ShaneO's AAV is $13.0mm, Mujica's AAV is $4.75mm. However, it would not leave room for midseason moves, which is likely why the Red Sox will exceed the luxury tax threshold in any event.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 23, 2015 9:11:09 GMT -5
Any event doesn't include moving a salary like Masterson at the trade deadline to bring up a pitching prospect that's tearing it up.
Stated otherwise, considering Pawtucket, there's a non-zero chance that we could improve the second half team by being sellers at the trade deadline, particularly with our one year rental group.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 23, 2015 10:39:49 GMT -5
The team has absolutely loaded up on relief pitchers. Given the extreme year-to-year variability of bullpen arms, this is the way to go about this, I believe. Lots of options, and they'll probably let it all sort out during spring training. Maybe Boggs is one part of that puzzle. In reality the it's six guys for four spots. Layne, Breslow, Ogando, Boggs, Ross, Vavarro. One of those guys will have to be cut and one of them will have to start the season in the minors as three of those players have options.
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