|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 20, 2015 16:50:49 GMT -5
If you could only have one of these two prospects, which would you take and why?
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 20, 2015 16:58:36 GMT -5
I have a feeling this is going to be a landslide decision
|
|
|
Post by stevedillard on Feb 20, 2015 17:08:08 GMT -5
Michael Kopech, because we can't vote for Austin Meadows.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 20, 2015 17:11:39 GMT -5
Interesting, I know there is a 2 year age gap, but you might as well consider Ball an 18 year old due to the lack of experience and mileage on his arm. I guess Ball isn't going to get the benefit of the doubt over Kopech despite being drafted 6th overall compared to Kopech who was selected 33rd respectively. I'm surprised at the margin between the 10th and 12th spot in the prospect list.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 20, 2015 17:18:12 GMT -5
Michael Kopech, because we can't vote for Austin Meadows. anyone else drafted after Ball FIFY
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 20, 2015 17:19:08 GMT -5
Maybe the better question was, Trey Ball, bust?
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Feb 20, 2015 17:23:32 GMT -5
Maybe the better question was, Trey Ball, bust? Oh ffs let's not rehash this again.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 20, 2015 17:59:32 GMT -5
Maybe the better question was, Trey Ball, bust? No. Leave it like this. I think it's a better discussion about who is a better prospect.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 20, 2015 18:26:10 GMT -5
Option C: Push/too early to tell.
I'm higher on Kopech at present, but barely. We haven't had time to see his warts show up in his stats yet, whereas we've seen Ball's horrendous first half last year overshadows his pretty good second half.
Gun to my head it's Kopech, but it's not a landslide, for me at least.
|
|
|
Post by charliezink16 on Feb 20, 2015 18:33:43 GMT -5
I'll be the one to go with Trey Ball. People always love the shiny new toy, which was once Ball. Ball's more projectable, seems more athletic, and had a 2.11ERA over his final 8 starts (though the peripherals weren't nearly as good). We knew that Ball was a project, so forgetting about him after one season is dumb. At this point we know very little about Kopech, so it's easier to dream over his ceiling. I'm excited to see Kopech's 98 mph heater in action, but I see a Ball leap-forward in Salem as more likely than Kopech dominating.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 20, 2015 18:39:31 GMT -5
Can I add some realism to the discussion? They're the same age, except that one guy pitched 100 innings at Greenville, while the other tried his hand at 13 innings of GCL competition. Ball was nearly two full years ahead of the age-advancement curve for A league. I was frankly surprised when they jumped him that high to start him off, and not surprised when he struggled getting started. I like him enough, just off of the little I've seen, to give him my vote.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 20, 2015 18:55:08 GMT -5
I'm not even going to vote on this one honestly. These guys both have fairly high ceilings, they could both bust, and there's not really any way to predict based on what they've done so far where either will end up on that spectrum. I suppose that if I absolutely had to choose one I'd go with Kopech just on velo, but even that's iffy because we haven't seen him show it when throwing every fifth day.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 20, 2015 19:01:06 GMT -5
Michael Kopech, because we can't vote for Austin Meadows. anyone else drafted after Ball FIFY I bet you both have a perfect record in the draft. My take on this: Anyways I like Kopech but he has the shinny new toy smell. I expect he too will have his struggles early on. He has a high maintenance delivery and will probably have problems throwing strikes. I hope he works it out as he probably has the highest ceiling in the system. But his floor is he might never get out of a-ball. I thought Ball would struggle in his initial exposure, raw HS arm from a non traditional state who played both ways and another sport, not really hard to forsee. I'd be surprise if he doesn't look better this year. Maybe you put Kopech ahead because he throws harder and despite being younger prolly has more experience before entering the system but the placement shouldn't be that far off. It's negligible.
|
|
|
Post by charliezink16 on Feb 20, 2015 19:07:17 GMT -5
Can I add some realism to the discussion? They're the same age, except that one guy pitched 100 innings at Greenville, while the other tried his hand at 13 innings of GCL competition. Ball was nearly two full years ahead of the age-advancement curve for A league. I was frankly surprised when they jumped him that high to start him off, and not surprised when he struggled getting started. I like him enough, just off of the little I've seen, to give him my vote. Agree with your reasoning, but Kopech is 18 and Ball is 20.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 20, 2015 19:10:41 GMT -5
Yeah, my bad. Saw 18s everywhere... I'll still stick with the age advancement argument, though.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 20, 2015 19:53:17 GMT -5
I understand the appeal of Kopech. Nice shiny new toy from the most recent draft, potential for 4 average pitches (2 plus) from a power righthander. Sox drafted Ball for a reason, came from a cold weather state and struggled in his first half of professional ball...whoopdy doo.....means nothing if he progresses into a stud. I call it a push.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Feb 20, 2015 19:58:35 GMT -5
I guess I don't get the question, why do we have to choose? They are so young, there's no way to really tell. We have them both, let them develop and see what happens. All prospects are different and develop in different ways and different rates. This is much different than a CVaz or Swihart question where one is this year's stater and the other will be ML ready in another year.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 20, 2015 20:35:05 GMT -5
I like both but I think Ball and I think it's by a fairly sizable chunk. On the other hand it's mostly based on situation circumstance. My reasoning is mechanical adjustments. Ball went through some pretty substantial adjustments and eventually emerged intact. Kopech is somewhat of a mess and will also need adjustments. I think it's true that the greatest majority of all high school pitchers will need adjustments but what's not so clear is how many actually accomplish it successfully.
ADD: It should be noted that relative to development, for Ball, this was the year Owens first broke out at Salem.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,728
|
Post by nomar on Feb 21, 2015 3:12:16 GMT -5
Owens never had a problem missing bats though. His FIP was .60 lower than Ball's in Greenville.
Ball definitely made improvements and Im hopeful that he will become a more promising spec, but I'd have to admit Owens showed more at this stage than Ball has.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 21, 2015 3:45:36 GMT -5
Owens was more advanced as a pitcher coming in, on the other hand, at draft day I think less highly regarded in terms of ceiling. Ball's 2nd half numbers at Greenville are comparable to Owens Greenville numbers. I'm also expecting Kopech to struggle this coming season as well.
I also recall a poster here that had seen Ball live, closer to the end of the season and reported velocities higher than what the analysts saw earlier in the season. That phenomena can easily be attributed to the mechanics change and therefore the need to build up strength through repetitions of a different combination of muscle groups. All theoretical of course but there's no question in my mind that his 2014 mechanics were significantly different than his 2013 mechanics.
|
|
|
Post by tonyc on Feb 21, 2015 13:27:46 GMT -5
Regarding Kopech, the vast majority of pitchers- even with two wipeout pitches become relievers until proven otherwise. Ball has the advantages of being lefthanded, a more projectable frame with a repeatable delivery, was a high draft pick by some sharp scouts. Most importantly if you recall, a high level director in the Dodgers minor league system saw ace potential.
|
|
|
Post by gatorgreenwell on Feb 21, 2015 22:22:00 GMT -5
I'm not saying it has to be next season, but if Ball continues to struggle, when do they pull the reverse Casey Kelly and put a bat in this kids hands?
|
|
alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
|
Post by alnipper on Feb 22, 2015 13:01:44 GMT -5
To me this is a very close decision. If Ball adds to or 3 mph to his fastball I would pick Ball. If Kopech had cleaner technique I would choose. It is a coin flip for me. It is too early to tell. Ideally I would love them both to become number two pitchers for us.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Feb 22, 2015 14:12:30 GMT -5
I was very impressed with the development of ball last season. He starts out raw as raw gets and literally learned to pitch and got a lot better as the season went on. Velocity ticked up, he learned to work the black and stay out of the white and he learned to mix his pitches. Secondaries still need a to of development work though, .
My biggest remaining question is does ball start off this season where he left off last season or does he struggle to adjust to a new league?
If ball can grow from where he left off at the end of last season and start to dominate a bit, that would be a huge for his development.
Kopech, I have no idea. Need to see much much more before having a read in him,
|
|
|
Post by notguilty on Feb 22, 2015 15:12:49 GMT -5
Long time lurker, just felt bound to react. I'm rather surprised at the (mostly) negative impressions of Ball; given that the crowd here tends to be a bit more sophisticated when it comes to understanding prospect development, I expected a little bit more..patience I guess. And I speak as somebody who wanted Meadows. In any event, I'm a believer in Ball, though the probability that this was a busted pick is certainly there. But I think the scouts saw something there that made the upside worth the risk, and Ball hasn't quite shown that. I like Kopech too, but he's got the benefit of being the new shiny toy (that and the fact that many people didn't want Ball to begin with). I find the suggestions that Ball should start looking into hitting to be quite silly. Give the kid some time; maybe he busts, who knows, but it's a bit early to give up on him . I'm curious what % of the people voting Kopech do so because they don't think Ball will amount to much, or still have hope in Ball but just think Kopech will be better.
|
|