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2015 Non-Sox thread
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 2, 2015 16:06:28 GMT -5
Games start this week!
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 2, 2015 18:52:28 GMT -5
Phillies lost to D2 university of tampa?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 2, 2015 21:50:02 GMT -5
Phillies lost to D2 university of tampa? 6-2. The comments following any of the storylines are as funny as the nyyfans Moncada thread (which is still growing at a faster percentage rate than our thread).
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Post by greekgodofpancakes on Apr 5, 2015 17:35:07 GMT -5
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Post by charliezink16 on Apr 5, 2015 17:46:29 GMT -5
Wow didn't see that coming. 3/$33.75mil & 3/$46.35mil remaining on Kimbrel & Bossman Jr's contracts, respectively. I get new TV deals and all other income streams, but this seems like a lot of money for San Diego. Funny enough, I was going to start up a thread in the Trade Forum around Kimbrel. Was seeing a trade deadline deal around him and JBJ as reasonable, but nevermind that.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 5, 2015 17:56:44 GMT -5
Depending on what salary, if any, the Braves had to eat......a great trade by the Braves. Just getting rid of Melvin may be worth it. The 2 kids the Braves got are both highly thought of. Really like Wisler. The pitching Atlanta has picked up this off-season is very impressive.
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Post by soxfan06 on Apr 5, 2015 17:56:50 GMT -5
Probably an effort to get Justin Upton to stay past this year.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Apr 5, 2015 18:09:14 GMT -5
It would be interesting to see how much the Braves shopped the Kimbrell and Upton package deal. This is the type of deal that the Phillies need to do to package Hamels and Papelbon to get some salary relief and jump start their rebuilding.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 5, 2015 18:36:37 GMT -5
Hard not to root for the Cardinals tonight
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Post by ramireja on Apr 5, 2015 18:40:24 GMT -5
Hard not to root for the Cardinals tonight I'm not gonna lie, I'm rooting for Epstein and this Cub's revival. No hard feelings....even with Lester and everything. I really can't root against Lester either, he's cemented himself as one of my all-time faves.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 5, 2015 19:18:47 GMT -5
Hard not to root for the Cardinals tonight I'm not gonna lie, I'm rooting for Epstein and this Cub's revival. No hard feelings....even with Lester and everything. I really can't root against Lester either, he's cemented himself as one of my all-time faves. That's pretty much exactly how I feel ... except then they had to go get Joe Maddon. What am I supposed to do now? On the Phillies, I was at some friends' house for a barbecue last night, and they had over another friend ... he commented that his recent trip to Florida was "terrible." I thought he had gone down for the funeral of a parent or something. Turns out that he's a huge Phillies fan and went down for spring training. So, you know, kind of the same thing as I thought ...
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 5, 2015 19:24:32 GMT -5
The Cubs remind me a lot of the Jets. I'm no fan of the Cardinals either but they're a much classier organization and fan base.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Apr 5, 2015 19:34:41 GMT -5
It is hard to cheer for the Cubs with Maddden as their manager.
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Post by jmei on Apr 5, 2015 20:07:57 GMT -5
They're playing it up a little too much on the broadcast, but seriously, Jon Lester needs to figure out how to throw to bases.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2015 20:17:11 GMT -5
It would be interesting to see how much the Braves shopped the Kimbrell and Upton package deal. This is the type of deal that the Phillies need to do to package Hamels and Papelbon to get some salary relief and jump start their rebuilding. Well, key difference is that Hamels and Papelbon are both still good, whereas Upton is awful (although Petco may be the be one of the best spots for him at this point).
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 5, 2015 20:23:12 GMT -5
At least they're talking about baseball!
But man is Lester a bad hitter. Granted pitchers aren't expected to do much but thats got to have some impact over the course of a season. Especially since some pitchers are kind of decent hitters.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 5, 2015 20:56:16 GMT -5
So far looks like $135mm well saved by the Sox.
On a more serious note, Lester's problems with base runners and the Cardinals' exploitation of it could be the harbinger of disaster for the Cubbies.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 5, 2015 21:03:37 GMT -5
4.1 IP 8 H 2 BB 3 ER 6 K.
Had trouble controlling the running game, throwing to bases, and will kill some rallies as a hitter.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 5, 2015 21:20:38 GMT -5
Uhhh
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 5, 2015 22:03:35 GMT -5
And the Cubs are out of hotdog buns.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 6, 2015 1:17:51 GMT -5
Peter Keating's column in the last ESPN The Magazine reported a very interesting recent sabermetric finding: ST stats are not meaningless. In particular, guys who are in the top or bottom 2% of hitters, relative to expectations, can be expected to add or subtract 30 OPS points.
I looked at everyone with 40 or more ST PA, and calculated their expected performance by averaging PECOTA, ZiPS, and Steamer (FG already averaged the last two). I used 1.5 * OBP + SA as a quality measure, since that splits the difference between the effective weights for TAv and wOBA (one of those can't be right, and possibly neither is). I park adjusted the projections, adjusted ST for the lower level of competition, and compared the two, expressing the results as a ratio; 150 is a guy who was 50% better in the spring than expected.
Here are the leaders, with comments:
Matt Szczur, Cubs, 174. (52 PA against 8.3 quality opposition, where 10 would be all current major leaguers, and 8.4 is average; there was no correlation at all between quality of opposition and performance relative to expectation.) 25 y/o CF, plus athlete whose ml career has been hampered by an "ugly swing." Did he change it over the winter? Made the team as their 4th OFer.
Kris Bryant, Cubs, 169. (44 PA vs. 8.5). Under-projected phenom #1.
Mike Zunino, Mariners, 162. (58 PA vs. 8.5). The only former high-minors top 20 catching prospect who hasn't yet been an All-Star seems poised to follow Mesoraco as a breakout.
Tony Sanchez, Pirates, 159. (45 PA vs. 8.4). Once the 4th pick in the draft, it wouldn't be a surprise at all if he bloomed late like many catchers and broke out in his age 27 season; however, he'd have to wrest the starting job from ....
Francisco Cervelli, Pirates, 159. (43 PA vs. 8.7). Speaking of age 27 catcher breakouts, his projections (roughly .322 / .339) seem to think his .372 / .449 in 223 PA the last two years (ages 27 and 28) is a fluke; this suggests there's some realness there. He's been a 1.6 WAR / 120 G framer, versus Sanchez's 1.2.
Justin Turner, Dodgers, 156. (48 PA vs. 8.5). Quite likely demonstrating that his projections should have taken his crazy breakout last year (.339 TAv in 322 PA after a career at about .260) more seriously. He'll have to fight for playing time, though, with Kendrick at 2B and Rollins at SS.
C.J. Cron, Angels, 155. (74 PA vs. 8.4). Not sure why projection systems would be low on him, so either he's matured some as a hitter, or this is a fluke. Expected to be their DH.
John Mayberry, Jr., Mets, 154. (56 PA vs. 8.6). No idea about him, either. 4th OFer, stuck behind Cuddyer.
Mike Napoli, Red Sox, 150. (41 PA vs. 8.7). Off-season apnea surgery and general health.
Mookie Betts, Red Sox, 150. (55 PA vs. 8.7). Under-projected phenom #2.
Curtis Granderson, Mets, 150. (50 PA vs. 8.7) Lots of attention for his great spring, but no rationale provided.
Other Sox: JBJ 129, Nava 112, Holt 110, Xander 103, Pedroia 99, Craig 93, Hanley 80, Sandoval 66, Victorino 59. With the possible exception of the latter, none of these seem large enough to be meaningful by themselves.
I may do the trailer board tomorrow ...
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,754
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Post by mobaz on Apr 6, 2015 6:35:44 GMT -5
Not a great way to start the supposed Cubs Revival. Don't worry, they might have seats for everyone by June!
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 6, 2015 6:48:02 GMT -5
I'm actually a little disappointed that Kimbrel was traded, because I saw him as a possible option if Koji just falls off a cliff this year. I'm not sure if the Braves wanted the prospects or wanted to get rid of Upton more because the Red Sox obviously had no use for him. But maybe it's a blessing because of the track record of trading for closers.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 6, 2015 6:52:18 GMT -5
I'm actually a little disappointed that Kimbrel was traded, because I saw him as a possible option if Koji just falls off a cliff this year. I'm not sure if the Braves wanted the prospects or wanted to get rid of Upton more because the Red Sox obviously had no use for him. But maybe it's a blessing because of the track record of trading for closers. Looks like the Padres got fleeced pretty bad, who knows whether Kimbrel would even have been available at anything approaching a reasonable price.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 6, 2015 7:05:36 GMT -5
Incidentally, what the Sox should be doing, IMHO, is calling AJ Preller to ask what he wants for Maurer or Quackenbush, the two relievers the Padres just optioned to AAA, either of whom would immediately slot in as the 3rd best pitcher in the Sox bullpen according to Steamer/ZiPS.
ERA projections per FG Depth Charts:
Uehara 2.57 Tazawa 3.28 Quackenbush 3.40 Maurer 3.54 Ross 3.68 Ogando 3.93 Layne 3.95 Mujica 3.97 etc.
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