Three up, three down, three gems

Since my intent is to have people say where they go against the general grain, I don't want to do an infinite lavarnwayguy style defense. On the other hand you brought up a related item that I wanted to comment on. The trade chip part.

I don't think that's the case (or for Haley) for several reasons.
1. For a trade chip you would want that chip to develop maximum value. Half a year at AA isn't the best timing. Nothing is lost by a year at AA.
2 If we trade for an ace either before the season starts or at the deadline, it's almost a given that it will involve at least one of the PawSox starters.
3. Mastersona and Porcello are both one year rentals.
4. A few of the starters (Barnes, Escobar) are starting to look like future relievers partially because of all that current depth.

I'm guessing the AAA rotation is not going to be anywhere near as crowded this time next year.

Purely hypothetical but non zero chance extreme example. We include Owens/Buchholz in a package for Hamels. We give QO to Masterson/Porcello and replace them with Rodriguez and Johnson. Escobar who will be out of options to the pen and Barnes who won't have much to prove at AAA and would have great 8th inning stuff to the pen. Poof, the entire PawSox rotation has been used up.

I'm not that confident in predictions, but following the theme, here are some Rules of Three I'm looking at in terms of guys who could bump themselves up a notch (or not):

The three AAA lefties: It's nice that there's depth at the top of the system and all, because there's a lot riding on these guys (and Barnes) ... if they don't work out, there's a LONG way to go before the next possible pitching prospect would be ready. I mean, you're looking at years, unless someone like Teddy S and Mercedes or something like that just pops. But, I have high hopes for Owens, think Johnson could be a solid pitcher, and I'm on the Board of Directors of the Rodriguez fan club, so there's a lot to look at there.

The Tres Amigos in A-ball: Three uber prospects in A ball in Moncada, Devers, and Margot. All of these guys could be top-20 level elite prospects in the next 1-2 years and could make a major difference for the team's future, so it'll be fun watching them

Three guys who could take a step into national lists: Javier Guerra, Nick Longhi, and Michael Chavis are obvious names to focus on at the lower reaches of A ball (although I'm higher than most on Longhi), all could put themselves on the national map with good performances this year

Three Centerfielders: For a variety of reasons, I'm interested in seeing what Mars, Kemp, and X Basabe do this year. All athletic guys with differing profiles, will be interesting to see how they develop this year

Three young pitchers: Kopech and Ball, obviously, and also Cosart interest me greatly. All of them have a ways to go, but they are all premium arms.

Three "what have we here?" second-basemen Coyle, Rijo, and Asuaje ... Coyle and Asuaje have the distinct advantage of positional flexibility, but all of these guys are coming off good-to-great performances last year.

Three Ups:
- Carlos Asuaje: His triple-slash line was insane and he offers defensive versatility. I'm buying the offensive line (to a degree) for two reasons: 1) his line stayed strong upon moving to High-A, and 2) he was remarkably consistent throughout the year...I don't recall his success being attributed to a monster month or anything like that. Now I'm not saying Asuaje will ever be a starting 2B for a first division team, but I love his floor and think he could be a utility guy on a 1st division team, or starter on a 2nd division team. I think he moves from #29 to the 15-20 range.
- Mauricio Dubon: Love the combination of defensive ability according to scouts (although I recall a healthy number of errors but thats ok for now), and his insane contact rate. I foresee a continuation of high batting average while being able to play a solid SS. Not sure that the approach or power will tick up, but I think the combo of hit/defense moves him from #36 to the 21-25 range.
- Kevin McAvoy: The early reports suggest his sinking fastball with solid velocity could be very effective. Couple that with a lack of walks and I think he produces a solid WHIP at either Greenvile or even Salem. I think he moves from #42 to the 21-25 range.

Three Downs:
I just want to note that my bias in thinking that every Sox prospect is better than they are currently projected makes this very difficult. Okay that being said:
- Travis Shaw: I don't see him convincing anyone that he is worthy of a 25 man spot, and perhaps not even a 40 man. He's not an awful player by any means, but as he cements his status as a AAAA player, that should be enough to knock him out of the top 20 (similar to the Brentz career path).
- Michael Kopech: Okay, you all hate me now....and I hope I'm wrong...but I think the amount of hype based on his velocity and emerging secondaries is masking some rawness. Now here me out, I'm super excited about Kopech and hope he develops into a stud. But I think we need to patient with him and I foresee some high walk rates/initial struggles that bump him out of the top 10 (but not below 15-20).  Think Henry Owens after year 1:  High WHIP, but also high K rate to keep intrigue alive.
- Wendell Rijo: I'll second this. He may struggle a little this year, but he will still be super young for the league and will have plenty of time to bounce back.

Three Gems:
- Yoan Aybar: Move over Moncada, I was the first Yoan in this system. I'm intrigued by reports of his tools, holding his own in the DSL despite being incredibly young, and a vague memory of a quote from <insert random scout here> who said he had the potential to be one of the better OF from his signing class.
- Josh Pennington: My Gabe Speier of this year. High school draftee coming off of Tommy John who had generated at least a mild amount of buzz (even if mostly regional) for an amateur player prior to his injury.
- Trenton Kemp: I'll co-sign this. Some loud tools here, but honestly have heard very little about the bat itself. I'll cross my fingers and hope the bat is decent enough to let some of the tools breath.

Glad someone mentioned Aybar, high ceiling on him. He and Kemp would definitely be two of my gems.

Porcello is not a rental in the teams eyes not even close. He's their veteran starter of the future. He's hitting FA at a super young age for a player and the Sox want to take full advantage of that. Sure they want to see more of him, but he's a guy that they want to sign longterm. It's no secret they don't like longterm contracts for pitchers over 30, which is why Porcello is like gold to them.

To me a rental is someone you acquire knowing he will only be there for a year.

Three Up
1. Mauricio Dubon: Had an incredibly impressive contact rate for a teenager in a largely pitcher's dominated league. Even more impressive that he has average to above average defense at SS. I think he will cement his status as a legitimate prospect and push for a top 10 on Soxprospects by the end of the year.

2. Manuel Margot: I know there's not much more for him to go up but I really see him as having a breakout year in Portland and showing an impressive combination of power, speed, and defense at CF. Incredibly similar to Andrew McCutchen at a similar age in A and A+ ball. I think he ends up in the top 15 prospects in baseball by season's end.

3. Nick Longhi: Similar story to Dubon, very impressive as a teenager in Lowell before injuries ended his season. Think he'll show promise in his full-season debut at Greenville and maybe even push for a cup of coffee at Salem by year's end.

Three Down
1. Pat Light
2. Simon Mercedes
3. Jamie Callahan

I view each of these guys as throwers rather than pitchers, which you just can't survive as in the current state of the game. There are tons of guys who can throw in the mid to high 90's, especially now, but that does not matter if you can't pitch. I see each of these young arms flaming out further this year if they can't develop a better combination of secondaries and command.

Three Gems
1. Henry Ramos: I think Ramos will end up as an extremely valuable 4th OF as a switch hitter with average defense and average to above average offense. He'll bounce back after a poor season and do well for himself in Pawtucket. 

2. Kevin McAvoy: Had an insane groundball rate and was fairly young for a college draftee. Won't wow you with stuff but impressive sinker. Expect him to do well in Portland by year's end.

3. Steven Wright: Not sure if it will be for the Red Sox, but I really see Wright having a successful and long career as a back end of the rotation starter. I really hope he gets his shot here because I don't think we will receive comparable value in return for what he will provide in WAR for a new team. Don't understand why he doesn't get more love.