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Post by jmei on Apr 6, 2015 16:51:01 GMT -5
I think it makes more sense to deal depth (say, MLB-ready excess like Marrero-Cecchini, both of who are probably top-150, and top100 with good seasons this year) and a major-leaguer with a favorable contract (Craig, IF he hits) along with a top prospect for a younger pitcher in MLB (Ventura, Gray, lesser package for Walker or Archie Bradley). Or, try to get an A/AA ball arm (Harvey, Glasnow, etc) with upside to a team in the hunt that's pushing to make a move. The Kimbrel trade isn't an ideal example, but SD didn't really give up THAT much to get an outstanding arm. Could the Sox get Jose Fernandez for Owens, Devers, a hitter like Craig, and salary relief? Probably not, but it's worth exploring. Or, could the Sox (and this is why I think Victorino is in RF despite Castillo looking obviously superior) trade a veteran for a single A arm or two (like the Peavy-Iglesias/Montas trade in reverse) to a team in need? I guess it's nice to speculate about, but it's like what others pointed out above-- these kinds of trades just don't happen often. You rarely see a team trade a good young player for multiple inferior players. Short answer? It's hard to hit on a bunch of those guys. The Red Sox have certainly drafted/signed these high-risk high-reward types-- think Kukuk, Pat Light, Callahan, Buttrey, Britton-- but those high-ceiling guys usually come with a high bust rate You can't expect every trade to be like the Eduardo Rodriguez trade. While teams do sometimes make those kinds of win-now moves, they stand out for a reason-- because they're atypical. |
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 6, 2015 20:18:47 GMT -5
I also don't see why the Royals would be all that interested in trading Ventura. They are finally in a spot with their team where they are contenders and he's a big part of that. There is no way they can sell another rebuild after one year of being in it. These teams don't trade the young players they are able to lock up to longterm team friendly deals, they trade the young players they aren't able to do that with. He's a Royal for the next few years. Maybe once he has 2 years left (the team options) we can start talking about him. Geez, maybe now? Maybe we shouldn't talk about any of these guys. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 7, 2015 9:42:49 GMT -5
Also that Rodriguez trade wouldn't stand out if he was pitching here like he were in Baltimore. It's not like they traded him while he was performing at the top of his game. His stick was trending downwards.
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Post by brendan98 on Apr 7, 2015 9:50:12 GMT -5
What about a guy like Dylan Bundy? Coming off of TJ, and definitely having taken a backseat to Gausman as far as the conversation as the future ace of the team goes. I don’t think the Orioles would give him away, but might deal him for a mix of a guy or two that can help them win now, and maybe a guy or two with the potential to help them down the road.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 7, 2015 23:13:47 GMT -5
What about a guy like Dylan Bundy? Coming off of TJ, and definitely having taken a backseat to Gausman as far as the conversation as the future ace of the team goes. I don’t think the Orioles would give him away, but might deal him for a mix of a guy or two that can help them win now, and maybe a guy or two with the potential to help them down the road. His value is very low right now. He has lost velocity in a big way. |
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Post by telson13 on Apr 8, 2015 0:20:53 GMT -5
Also that Rodriguez trade wouldn't stand out if he was pitching here like he were in Baltimore. It's not like they traded him while he was performing at the top of his game. His stick was trending downwards. This is exactly my original question. Rodriguez wasn't necessarily trending downwards, but he was having some growing pains (likely injury-related) in AA, at the ripe old age of 21. He got there at 20 in 2013. That's exactly why the Sox got good value in that trade. Obviously, there would be numerous misses with this approach. But given the glut of MLB and MLB-ready talent the Sox have, they can probably afford a few more flyers. Obviously, they did their scouting and thought Rodriguez was being suboptimally coached (hence, increasing the situations/locations he used his changeup in/to). |
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Post by telson13 on Apr 8, 2015 0:23:00 GMT -5
What about a guy like Dylan Bundy? Coming off of TJ, and definitely having taken a backseat to Gausman as far as the conversation as the future ace of the team goes. I don’t think the Orioles would give him away, but might deal him for a mix of a guy or two that can help them win now, and maybe a guy or two with the potential to help them down the road. His value is very low right now. He has lost velocity in a big way. If his value is low, it's the time to pick him up. He always had good pitchability. He's young. Even if he only gets back to the low-mid 90s, he could be a 3. If he gets back to high-90s, even better. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 8, 2015 10:11:11 GMT -5
His value is very low right now. He has lost velocity in a big way. If his value is low, it's the time to pick him up. He always had good pitchability. He's young. Even if he only gets back to the low-mid 90s, he could be a 3. If he gets back to high-90s, even better. I'm saying that his current value is so low, that the Orioles are better off holding onto Bundy hoping that he rebounds. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 8, 2015 10:36:40 GMT -5
Why would the Orioles trade him right now when they'll get 2 cents on the the dollar.
The Red Sox can't just go "let's trade for this guy his value is low right now" the other team has to be a willing partner.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2015 19:03:40 GMT -5
If his value is low, it's the time to pick him up. He always had good pitchability. He's young. Even if he only gets back to the low-mid 90s, he could be a 3. If he gets back to high-90s, even better. I'm saying that his current value is so low, that the Orioles are better off holding onto Bundy hoping that he rebounds. Makes sense, a la JBJ/Cecchini I suppose (only with a once-higher ceiling). Then again, they punted on Rodriguez despite his age/level simply because of a leg injury. Of course, given the results so far, they may not want to repeat that possible (probable?) error. |
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Post by telson13 on Apr 12, 2015 19:10:48 GMT -5
Why would the Orioles trade him right now when they'll get 2 cents on the the dollar. The Red Sox can't just go "let's trade for this guy his value is low right now" the other team has to be a willing partner. Obviously. But when dealing from a position of strength (and depth), the Sox may be able to offer 30 cents on the dollar and feel the risk is worth it. In that case, the Orioles may be a willing partner. Trades aren't absolutes, they're exercises in risk aversion. If the Sox offer someone they feel isn't going to help them/someone they won't have a place for, their "risk" is low, even if that player succeeds, since he wouldn't have succeeded with them anyway. If the Orioles think they can hedge against the downside risk of Bundy never recovering, and get something of value in return, they may make a trade. The question is whether the Sox are willing to give up what the Orioles feel is sufficient talent to sell low, but not for nothing. |
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Post by telson13 on Apr 23, 2015 20:36:19 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2019 18:12:46 GMT -5
Would you be interested in trading Bogaerts and Betts for three or four Grade B prospects? Like, if the Astros came in with something like Moran/Brett Phillips/McCullers/Hader for Bogaerts, would you have any interest at all? Lol...look at this in retrospect. Would you rather Hader and McCullers (plus Moran?) or Bogaerts? |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2019 14:48:14 GMT -5
Probably still Bogaerts, but it does kind of show it's hard to get completely worked when you buy cost controlled players in bulk.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 24, 2019 15:47:22 GMT -5
Probably still Bogaerts, but it does kind of show it's hard to get completely worked when you buy cost controlled players in bulk. It’s funny, I was thinking the same thing, but that deal is consistent health for McCullers away from being heavily pro-package. As you say, volume (and floor/ceiling combo/mix) are the keys. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 25, 2019 22:49:19 GMT -5
Probably still Bogaerts, but it does kind of show it's hard to get completely worked when you buy cost controlled players in bulk. It’s funny, I was thinking the same thing, but that deal is consistent health for McCullers away from being heavily pro-package. As you say, volume (and floor/ceiling combo/mix) are the keys. I feel like if you're buying pitchers in bulk, you're very likely to have one of them fail to stay healthy. |
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 26, 2019 8:45:40 GMT -5
In the same that one great prospect is better than three good ones, one player that produces 14.8 WAR over the last five years is more valuable than three who combine for 11, because those other positions are going to (hopefully) consist of above replacement-level players. Hader has only been worth 2.1 bWAR more than Heath Hembree since I posted that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2019 22:46:38 GMT -5
Per fWAR, it's Bogaerts 17.4, the other four combined 16.2. Which sounds close but isn't for the reasoning James notes.
In bWAR, 14.3 versus 13.4.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 27, 2019 1:01:49 GMT -5
In the same that one great prospect is better than three good ones, one player that produces 14.8 WAR over the last five years is more valuable than three who combine for 11, because those other positions are going to (hopefully) consist of above replacement-level players. Hader has only been worth 2.1 bWAR more than Heath Hembree since I posted that. I agree with both of you; absolutely a 4-WAR player is worth more than 2 (or maybe even 3) 2-WAR players, because of the rarity of the performance level and the excess provided at a single position. FWIW, though, the “package” has more years of control left, meaning they could end up winning that race...a better way than “last five years” would probably be an accounting of Bogaerts post-trade proposal during his remaining control, versus full control years for the four players mentioned. Really, my point was that these sorts of trades aren’t always as silly in retrospect. I don’t even remember how I ran across this recently, but I saw the Hader (and WAR is probably sub-optimal for measuring reliever value) and McCullers inclusion and was surprised by how *not* bad it would’ve ended up. Specifically, Hader-McCullers for 3-4 years might, right now, be preferable to Bogey for one. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 27, 2019 21:39:15 GMT -5
Put it this way:
For a win-now team that with the benefit of hindsight winds up winning a WS in the interim, the Bogaerts side of the trade is better. Flags fly forever.
For a rebuilding team that was never going to compete during the Bogaerts control window, you could argue the package side could be a better fit and that the rebuilding team didn't get hosed.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 27, 2019 22:56:47 GMT -5
Put it this way: For a win-now team that with the benefit of hindsight winds up winning a WS in the interim, the Bogaerts side of the trade is better. Flags fly forever. For a rebuilding team that was never going to compete during the Bogaerts control window, you could argue the package side could be a better fit and that the rebuilding team didn't get hosed. Exactly. It all depends on the impetus for that sort of trade. It would be a good trade for a rebuilding team, or potentially even a retooling one. Getting a bunch of very solid but unspectacular players in return gives a team a lot of salary flexibility. I don’t think anyone here would’ve liked that trade given where the Sox were at the time, but it isn’t a “bad” trade. This may even be the sort of trade they explore soon, especially if they start handing out extensions and know who they can/can’t afford. Even moreso if they have a viable option ready to step in (or one available in FA). Hader alone on the FA market (equivalent) is probably a 4/50-60M guy. I mean, the Sox will probably ride the train to the end and guys will leave as FA rather than vía trade, but I’d argue that this is exactly the type of move a retooling team needs. Filling several holes at once with league-average players (and maybe finding one star reliever) at negligible cost means a lot more $ freed up. |
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Post by telson13 on May 16, 2019 18:30:10 GMT -5
I’m wondering when/if Colorado would be interested in moving Jon Gray, and what the return would require. I just don’t see his stuff being well-suited to that environment (tho he does have some odd home/away splits I can’t explain), and I really wonder if the Sox coaching staff could unlock something in sequencing/mix. He’s not old by any stretch, and theoretically should be entering his prime. But he’s kind of stalled out in #3 territory, and that team isn’t going anywhere, with the Dodgers clear favorites, AZ playing well after retooling, and SD a marginal surprise (tho I thought they, along with MN, were big sleepers) and with a stupid amount of minor league talent. The Sox system is fairly thin, but using the Paxton trade as a guideline, and taking a step down because of the performance difference...idk, feels like the Sox could get something done there.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 16, 2019 21:41:18 GMT -5
I’m wondering when/if Colorado would be interested in moving Jon Gray, and what the return would require. I just don’t see his stuff being well-suited to that environment (tho he does have some odd home/away splits I can’t explain), and I really wonder if the Sox coaching staff could unlock something in sequencing/mix. He’s not old by any stretch, and theoretically should be entering his prime. But he’s kind of stalled out in #3 territory, and that team isn’t going anywhere, with the Dodgers clear favorites, AZ playing well after retooling, and SD a marginal surprise (tho I thought they, along with MN, were big sleepers) and with a stupid amount of minor league talent. The Sox system is fairly thin, but using the Paxton trade as a guideline, and taking a step down because of the performance difference...idk, feels like the Sox could get something done there. In this scenario the Red Sox aren't re-signing Porcello, right? I can't disagree with your points on Gray as his xFIPs have been pretty good. But looking over the Rockies a bit, it seems like they'd be looking for young catchers, bullpen arms, and right-handed OFs. The Red Sox on the other hand don't have an abundance of those - and their numerous 3B prospects wouldn't be desired by Colorado - as Arenado is a fixture at 3rd base. I'm not sure both teams match up well for this trade. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2019 21:43:30 GMT -5
The Sox are going to need to cheap out on a starter next year or this year after Porcello leaves. Minimum salary player needed there. It's a nice thought, but not realistic. The Sox have nothing to trade either.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 16, 2019 21:51:02 GMT -5
The Sox are going to need to cheap out on a starter next year or this year after Porcello leaves. Minimum salary player needed there. It's a nice thought, but not realistic. The Sox have nothing to trade either. Obviously the Rockies don't need a 3b with Arenado around, but if they need a 1b - can you imagine how Dalbec's power would play in Colorado? Scary to think how many HRs he could hit there! So maybe Dalbec would get the Red Sox foot in the door. I'm still not convinced that he can't help out the Sox soon, but all I can say is if the Sox dealt Dalbec to Colorado and he went nuts in that thin air, I'd hope Gray is the pitcher a lot of people think he is. |
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