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Post by telson13 on May 17, 2019 1:12:10 GMT -5
I’m wondering when/if Colorado would be interested in moving Jon Gray, and what the return would require. I just don’t see his stuff being well-suited to that environment (tho he does have some odd home/away splits I can’t explain), and I really wonder if the Sox coaching staff could unlock something in sequencing/mix. He’s not old by any stretch, and theoretically should be entering his prime. But he’s kind of stalled out in #3 territory, and that team isn’t going anywhere, with the Dodgers clear favorites, AZ playing well after retooling, and SD a marginal surprise (tho I thought they, along with MN, were big sleepers) and with a stupid amount of minor league talent. The Sox system is fairly thin, but using the Paxton trade as a guideline, and taking a step down because of the performance difference...idk, feels like the Sox could get something done there. In this scenario the Red Sox aren't re-signing Porcello, right? I can't disagree with your points on Gray as his xFIPs have been pretty good. But looking over the Rockies a bit, it seems like they'd be looking for young catchers, bullpen arms, and right-handed OFs. The Red Sox on the other hand don't have an abundance of those - and their numerous 3B prospects wouldn't be desired by Colorado - as Arenado is a fixture at 3rd base. I'm not sure both teams match up well for this trade. Absolutely, great points. Yes, I’m absolutely advocating letting Porcello go and trying to find a low-cost, controlled replacement. Eovaldi is theoretically there already, but I think there’s merit in obtaining someone like Gray who seems to have all the pieces but hasn’t put them together. It makes it tougher, but it’s possible the Sox get another team involved. Certainly, the long-term Arenado deal complicates things, because that was an area of depth for the Sox. But it’s possible that involving a third team could work it out. It’s unfortunate that JBJ is playing poorly because CO has previously had interest, if you believe the reports (not sure I do, but he’d be a big help in their OF and including a couple of prospects in the 45, 40 FV range might do it). I’ve got to think Duran gets promoted shortly, and there’s a pretty good chance, IMO, he’s up in September as a PR/5th OF option for the playoffs. He may be the CF of the future fairly soon. Jackie would probably benefit from CO’s park, too. But with a sub-600 OPS it’s a non-starter. Paxton netted a 50-55 FV in Sheffield and a moderately intriguing 40-45 in Eric Swanson, so something slightly less should suffice. I wouldn’t move Darwinzon, but Mata or Houck (who unfortunately is not pitching very well) or even Scherff. I’d try to get Gray and lock him up on a reasonable extension. Probably a pipe dream, but with Chavis looking like the 2b of the future and Duran a closer-than-we’d-thought CF option, I think the Sox are on the cusp of beginning a roster retool. Having another viable starter with upside and 2+ years of control would be nice.
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Post by telson13 on May 17, 2019 1:16:50 GMT -5
The Sox are going to need to cheap out on a starter next year or this year after Porcello leaves. Minimum salary player needed there. It's a nice thought, but not realistic. The Sox have nothing to trade either. Obviously the Rockies don't need a 3b with Arenado around, but if they need a 1b - can you imagine how Dalbec's power would play in Colorado? Scary to think how many HRs he could hit there! So maybe Dalbec would get the Red Sox foot in the door. I'm still not convinced that he can't help out the Sox soon, but all I can say is if the Sox dealt Dalbec to Colorado and he went nuts in that thin air, I'd hope Gray is the pitcher a lot of people think he is. Yeah, that lower whiff rate in AA has me completely reversed on my opinions on Dalbec. I’ve got a lot more confidence in him having enough of a hit tool (the OBPs are incredible, so .230-250 would be fine) to be a viable starter. And yeah, that could definitely be a trade the Sox might regret. I really like him, but Mata (and if he starts pitching better, Houck) might be attractive as sinkerballers. I just think, given what Paxton netted, and the fact he’s basically a rotation step above Gray in performance, the Sox should have enough to do this deal.
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Post by telson13 on May 17, 2019 1:34:19 GMT -5
Re:Dalbec, I’ve got to think his stock is rising. He has the defense; he’s probably going to be at least solid-average at 3b. He’s not Joey Gallo. So if he even approaches Gallo’s power numbers, and hits for a 125 wRC+ (he’s at 157 right now in Portland), that’s an above-average starter. He’d have to flash a real good 1b glove to approach that value at 1b, but if he did that 125 wRC+ is still solid. Hmm, he’s really a tough one to trade.
Right now, repeating AA, Dalbec’s walk rate has shot up from last year’s 4.8 to *16.9*, and he’s sporting a completely reasonable and not even particularly concerning K rate of 26.5% (down from over 37). The cut in whiffs, as dramatic as it’s been (he hasn’t been that low since Lowell), is super encouraging. His IsoP is unchanged, still over .250. And he has yet to really get hot. If he does, and gets that line up towards, say, .275/.400/.550, while maintaining a K rate under 27%, I’d have to think he starts popping up on other teams’ wish lists, as well as mid-season top-100s.
Right now, I think he and Duran are the best bets for becoming regulars at some point next year. Darwinzon might be a step behind. And the Sox really ought to keep their talent that they seem able to count on to fill roles at roughly league-avg production, given the salary crunch/FA turnover. So I’m not sure they can get Gray trading from outside those three (and obviously, Chavis is not an option). But I’m curious what people would give up.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 17, 2019 3:26:04 GMT -5
Dalbec needs to be a third baseman or his value plumets. One of his best attributes is his zeus cannon arm. I could envision Dalbec peaking at a 2-3 win player at third base. Heck, Mark Reynolds was a 3 win player there in 2009 and had a -5 DRS. Dalbec should easily surpass that defensively. He might not ever hit 40 bombs like Reynolds' 2009 season, but 30+ is definitely doable for him.
I hope if the Sox don't use him at third base, then they trade him to a team that will do that. That's why I don't see a match here. That and the fact as Telson pointed out, you actually might need this guy at third base next year.
One of the reasons why I want Devers to try first base is because he should be a plus defender there. You know, have a positive DRS and range. He would be succeeding at a position instead of calling him "below league average" all the time at third base. Sure there's a penalty for moving over value wise, but all of that should be equaled out when he potentially becomes a plus defender at first base. His release and glove transfer to his throwing hand no longer becomes a issue anymore at first base, like it is at third base. He should be a 4-5 win potential bat anywhere on the field too.
Dalbec however turns into a 1-2 win player if he "succeeds" at first base. His awesome arm would be rarely used. His offense is probably a little better than league average at first. Nothing special. Put that bat at third, it becomes more valuable on paper.
Yeah Telson, I don't see what you're trying to trade then if you're not trading your top 3 prospects for Gray. He's still pretty valuable, even if he might have plateaued in Colorado (as you stated it). They should get a top 5 prospect somewhere for him, even in a good farm system (which the Sox don't have).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 17, 2019 8:46:03 GMT -5
Dalbec needs to be a third baseman or his value plumets. One of his best attributes is his zeus cannon arm. I could envision Dalbec peaking at a 2-3 win player at third base. Heck, Mark Reynolds was a 3 win player there in 2009 and had a -5 DRS. Dalbec should easily surpass that defensively. He might not ever hit 40 bombs like Reynolds' 2009 season, but 30+ is definitely doable for him. I hope if the Sox don't use him at third base, then they trade him to a team that will do that. That's why I don't see a match here. That and the fact as Telson pointed out, you actually might need this guy at third base next year. One of the reasons why I want Devers to try first base is because he should be a plus defender there. You know, have a positive DRS and range. He would be succeeding at a position instead of calling him "below league average" all the time at third base. Sure there's a penalty for moving over value wise, but all of that should be equaled out when he potentially becomes a plus defender at first base. His release and glove transfer to his throwing hand no longer becomes a issue anymore at first base, like it is at third base. He should be a 4-5 win potential bat anywhere on the field too. Dalbec however turns into a 1-2 win player if he "succeeds" at first base. His awesome arm would be rarely used. His offense is probably a little better than league average at first. Nothing special. Put that bat at third, it becomes more valuable on paper. Yeah Telson, I don't see what you're trying to trade then if you're not trading your top 3 prospects for Gray. He's still pretty valuable, even if he might have plateaued in Colorado (as you stated it). They should get a top 5 prospect somewhere for him, even in a good farm system (which the Sox don't have). Don't disagree with you about Dalbec's defensive value being wasted at 1b for the Rockies if it came down to it, but his HR numbers would be inflated which could make him a scary monster, even if he would have to play 1b for them. For the Red Sox, I would see him as a 3b and would have to move Devers to 1b or dh. I would hope it's the former because that means Chavis continues to hit and be a viable 2b, and that would also mean that dh is occupied by JD Martinez still. I do have concern that he might not be back after this year or next with those opt outs. At some point JDM does opt out - I hope the Sox will kick in the extra $ to keep him. Honestly, I wouldn't do a deal that has Dalbec plus for Gray. I'm not sure I'd even do it straight up. I'm not really sold on Gray. I think he has a good chance at being a better pitcher away from Colorado, but I just don't know how good he'd be. And I speculate that Dalbec would be in a deal for a starter, but like telson said a Houck would make sense too. The Red Sox have to determine what Dalbec's value is: trade chip or a cheap regular for the Red Sox, which as Chavis is proving and Duran will prove, is a valuable commodity. The unfortunate part is that the Red Sox haven't really groomed Porcello's replacement in the minors too much, so they might have to hope that Johnson gets healthy and can be that guy in 2020. Otherwise why keep him? He's not a true reliever. They've kept him around for a reason and I think perhaps it's with an eye for the 2020 rotation spot.
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Post by jimed14 on May 17, 2019 8:53:19 GMT -5
Dalbec had a fielding percentage of .928 last season. Devers had a fielding percentage of .926 last season. Devers is 16 months younger.
Yeah, Dalbec is the 3B of the future and Devers has to move because people haven't seen Dalbec make errors at the same rate as Devers yet and that's the only reason.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 17, 2019 14:30:31 GMT -5
"Dalbec is probably the better defender, but he's nowhere near a certainty to even play in the majors"
That is what Chris Hatfield said on Dalbec's defense in comparison to Devers who has seen both play.
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Post by jimed14 on May 17, 2019 14:41:05 GMT -5
"Dalbec is probably the better defender, but he's nowhere near a certainty to even play in the majors" That is what Chris Hatfield said on Dalbec's defense in comparison to Devers who has seen both play. So what? As soon as you see Dalbec make a few errors, you'll be ready to dump him too. You only like him more because you haven't seen him play. All you complain about is Devers' errors and Dalbec makes just as many.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 17, 2019 14:42:05 GMT -5
"Dalbec is probably the better defender, but he's nowhere near a certainty to even play in the majors" That is what Chris Hatfield said on Dalbec's defense in comparison to Devers who has seen both play. So what? As soon as you see Dalbec make a few errors, you'll be ready to dump him too. You only like him more because you haven't seen him play. No I won't, if he has a positive DRS which Devers has never posted as a third baseman in this league in 3 years to this point.
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Post by jimed14 on May 17, 2019 14:43:36 GMT -5
So what? As soon as you see Dalbec make a few errors, you'll be ready to dump him too. You only like him more because you haven't seen him play. No I won't, if he has a positive DRS which Devers has never posted as a third baseman in this league in 3 years to this point. He won't have one if he makes just as many errors. And you still don't acknowledge that he's 16 months older than Devers and two leagues lower. Why is Dalbec going to improve his errors while Devers cannot despite the fact he's much younger?
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2019 14:46:59 GMT -5
Devers has better range than Dalbec, particularly charging the ball. Dalbec's errors I've seen have mostly been overthrows. I don't know if there's any catalogue to confirm that without going through the game logs.
Dalbec has a stronger arm which might enable him to pick up a few assists here and there that might be infield hits to Devers. It also might afford him an extra split-second to wait back on the ball that Devers has to be a bit more aggressive on.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 17, 2019 14:50:39 GMT -5
No I won't, if he has a positive DRS which Devers has never posted as a third baseman in this league in 3 years to this point. He won't have one if he makes just as many errors. And you still don't acknowledge that he's 16 months older than Devers and two leagues lower. Why is Dalbec going to improve his errors while Devers cannot despite the fact he's much younger? I don't care about the ages. I care about above average defense at third base. If Dalbec can't have a positive DRS, then yes you're right. I'll want him gone too.
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Post by jimed14 on May 17, 2019 14:57:15 GMT -5
He won't have one if he makes just as many errors. And you still don't acknowledge that he's 16 months older than Devers and two leagues lower. Why is Dalbec going to improve his errors while Devers cannot despite the fact he's much younger? I don't care about the ages. I care about above average defense at third base. If Dalbec can't have a positive DRS, then yes you're right. I'll want him gone too. Yeah well you assume Dalbec will be better than Devers which is absurd given the ages. That's my only issue with it. It's because you always overreact to watching errors while ignoring all of the good plays. You haven't seen Dalbec make errors, so you like him more. Same thing with the bullpen after they were unhittable for two weeks and then one bad game means their bullpen is awful. Same with Vazquez' defense, who by the way is the 8th best defensive catcher this year out of 79. You cannot remove your emotion and just look at stats to judge players.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 17, 2019 15:08:46 GMT -5
I don't care about the ages. I care about above average defense at third base. If Dalbec can't have a positive DRS, then yes you're right. I'll want him gone too. Yeah well you assume Dalbec will be better than Devers which is absurd given the ages. That's my only issue with it. It's because you always overreact to watching errors while ignoring all of the good plays. You haven't seen Dalbec make errors, so you like him more. Same thing with the bullpen after they were unhittable for two weeks and then one bad game means their bullpen is awful. Same with Vazquez' defense, who by the way is the 8th best defensive catcher this year out of 79. You cannot remove your emotion and just look at stats to judge players. I am fine, and once Devers posts a positive DRS, you'll never hear a peep from me about it. I was going off of what other's told me about both player's defense. Just like how I read into how Michael Chavis was big league ready with the bat off of Dombrowski's comments. Add- I have said a lot of positive things about Vasquez' defense this year. I have also said negative things. You focus on the negative.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 17, 2019 15:38:02 GMT -5
Dalbec needs to be a third baseman or his value plumets. One of his best attributes is his zeus cannon arm. I could envision Dalbec peaking at a 2-3 win player at third base. Heck, Mark Reynolds was a 3 win player there in 2009 and had a -5 DRS. Dalbec should easily surpass that defensively. He might not ever hit 40 bombs like Reynolds' 2009 season, but 30+ is definitely doable for him. I hope if the Sox don't use him at third base, then they trade him to a team that will do that. That's why I don't see a match here. That and the fact as Telson pointed out, you actually might need this guy at third base next year. One of the reasons why I want Devers to try first base is because he should be a plus defender there. You know, have a positive DRS and range. He would be succeeding at a position instead of calling him "below league average" all the time at third base. Sure there's a penalty for moving over value wise, but all of that should be equaled out when he potentially becomes a plus defender at first base. His release and glove transfer to his throwing hand no longer becomes a issue anymore at first base, like it is at third base. He should be a 4-5 win potential bat anywhere on the field too. Dalbec however turns into a 1-2 win player if he "succeeds" at first base. His awesome arm would be rarely used. His offense is probably a little better than league average at first. Nothing special. Put that bat at third, it becomes more valuable on paper. Yeah Telson, I don't see what you're trying to trade then if you're not trading your top 3 prospects for Gray. He's still pretty valuable, even if he might have plateaued in Colorado (as you stated it). They should get a top 5 prospect somewhere for him, even in a good farm system (which the Sox don't have). Don't disagree with you about Dalbec's defensive value being wasted at 1b for the Rockies if it came down to it, but his HR numbers would be inflated which could make him a scary monster, even if he would have to play 1b for them. For the Red Sox, I would see him as a 3b and would have to move Devers to 1b or dh. I would hope it's the former because that means Chavis continues to hit and be a viable 2b, and that would also mean that dh is occupied by JD Martinez still. I do have concern that he might not be back after this year or next with those opt outs. At some point JDM does opt out - I hope the Sox will kick in the extra $ to keep him. Honestly, I wouldn't do a deal that has Dalbec plus for Gray. I'm not sure I'd even do it straight up. I'm not really sold on Gray. I think he has a good chance at being a better pitcher away from Colorado, but I just don't know how good he'd be. And I speculate that Dalbec would be in a deal for a starter, but like telson said a Houck would make sense too. The Red Sox have to determine what Dalbec's value is: trade chip or a cheap regular for the Red Sox, which as Chavis is proving and Duran will prove, is a valuable commodity. The unfortunate part is that the Red Sox haven't really groomed Porcello's replacement in the minors too much, so they might have to hope that Johnson gets healthy and can be that guy in 2020. Otherwise why keep him? He's not a true reliever. They've kept him around for a reason and I think perhaps it's with an eye for the 2020 rotation spot. -I wouldn't be surprised to see JDM leave next season. The Sox need to start extending their young player's like Eduardo, Benintendi, and potentially Mookie (which I still don't believe in Henry doing, if he does it, I expect him to sell the team at least halfway through his deal). -Porcello's replacement will probably be one of the hardest things the Sox will try to figure out next year. -If Dalbec isn't a positive player at third base, then the Sox should trade him if they feel that is the case.
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Post by telson13 on May 17, 2019 18:16:08 GMT -5
Dalbec needs to be a third baseman or his value plumets. One of his best attributes is his zeus cannon arm. I could envision Dalbec peaking at a 2-3 win player at third base. Heck, Mark Reynolds was a 3 win player there in 2009 and had a -5 DRS. Dalbec should easily surpass that defensively. He might not ever hit 40 bombs like Reynolds' 2009 season, but 30+ is definitely doable for him. I hope if the Sox don't use him at third base, then they trade him to a team that will do that. That's why I don't see a match here. That and the fact as Telson pointed out, you actually might need this guy at third base next year. One of the reasons why I want Devers to try first base is because he should be a plus defender there. You know, have a positive DRS and range. He would be succeeding at a position instead of calling him "below league average" all the time at third base. Sure there's a penalty for moving over value wise, but all of that should be equaled out when he potentially becomes a plus defender at first base. His release and glove transfer to his throwing hand no longer becomes a issue anymore at first base, like it is at third base. He should be a 4-5 win potential bat anywhere on the field too. Dalbec however turns into a 1-2 win player if he "succeeds" at first base. His awesome arm would be rarely used. His offense is probably a little better than league average at first. Nothing special. Put that bat at third, it becomes more valuable on paper. Yeah Telson, I don't see what you're trying to trade then if you're not trading your top 3 prospects for Gray. He's still pretty valuable, even if he might have plateaued in Colorado (as you stated it). They should get a top 5 prospect somewhere for him, even in a good farm system (which the Sox don't have). Well, again, Paxton netted a 50+ and a 40+, and a 40. He’s pitched like a 2. Gray was off last year and has mostly been a 3. So discount that to roughly 50 and 45 maybe, plus a 40? Of course, that’s only if CO wants to trade him. It’s not about “top 5” in a system, it’s about excess value. I mean, I understand the point, but teams sometimes like your “4” over your “1” depending on their needs, evals, and if the system doesn’t have a clear #1. The Sox have several 45s; I’d call Duran at this point a 50, and I’d put Dalbec on the cusp of 50 given the improved whiff rate and the fact he’s doing it in AA. Like, if Gray agreed to an extension at reasonable $, I might be willing to include anyone other than Duran. But if not, well... I think you’re probably right in figuring Dalbec for league-average...his defense at 3b means even a .220/.320/.480 line and wRC+ in the 110-115 range is playable. But his outcome curve is VERY broad and I think, flat. He’s got a 157 wRC+ right now in AA and a whiff rate well under 30%. He’s not *all* that far from MLB. I think the walks and power mean he *probably* is at least a serviceable backup. But his discipline is a lot better than Reynolds and his fielding looks to be much better than Reynolds or Gallo. And he certainly has 40-HR potential. He could be anywhere from Craig Nettles with a touch more power and slightly less defense (perennial 5-win player) to AAAA fill-in. And I’m not sure any one outcome is *all* that more likely than another. But yeah, unless he approaches his AA production in MLB, or he’s an *excellent* 1b, he’d lose substantial value. Point being, he has more value to Bos than CO. If I were tgeSox I’d also be taking a peak at some of the young guys in Atlanta who’ve struggled. They have a bunch of MLB-ready 50 FV arms with some upside who might be pried away because of injury/performance issues. Bryse Wilson and Luiz Gohara come to mind. In their post-hype phases, 50 FV guys at peak but with issues.
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Post by telson13 on May 17, 2019 18:23:58 GMT -5
Devers has better range than Dalbec, particularly charging the ball. Dalbec's errors I've seen have mostly been overthrows. I don't know if there's any catalogue to confirm that without going through the game logs. Dalbec has a stronger arm which might enable him to pick up a few assists here and there that might be infield hits to Devers. It also might afford him an extra split-second to wait back on the ball that Devers has to be a bit more aggressive on. Dalbec seems to have a little softer hands, but I do think the concern re: Devers’s defense (and it’s not just PF, tho he’s particularly vocal) is WAY overblown. The guy is at an age appropriate for AA/AAA and he’s in his second full season. Last year he had to be concerned about his hitting and keeping a roster spot. He’s SO improved his hitting (as many of us thought he would), that he can calm down, know he’s going to play, and focus on defense rather than probably being out there running through his last AB in his head. There is a litany of players whose defense improved in MLB. It’s a skill, and skill is by nature not static. He’s going to get better. His range laterally is fine, and it’s quite good coming in. There’s *plenty* to work with there, and concerns re: his body should be put to rest in large part given how much slimmer and athletic he cane in this spring.
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Post by telson13 on May 17, 2019 18:28:29 GMT -5
That said, if Dalbec suddenly starts hitting in AAA and then MLB as he has so far this year, you figure out a plan for them both. Maybe they split 1b and 3b until a clear defensive winner arises. Idk, but you find a spot for guys putting up 125+ wRC+.
If anything (and this is why I started this thread) te Sox have excellent positional player development success. So if they need pitching, they can trade for it.
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Post by larrycook on May 27, 2019 22:41:03 GMT -5
I know the dodgers are really rolling right now, but if by some strange circumstance, they wind up with a need that we can help them with at the trade deadline, I would not mind taking Dustin May off their hands.
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