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Minor League Spring Training
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 19, 2015 7:46:18 GMT -5
Trust us, nobody thought he was going to stick at short. It was more Middlebrooks/Cecchini "no, trust us, he's not playing shortstop and it's a matter of when" than it was Bogaerts "he might get too big for the position down the line but there's a chance he sticks." Check out the post draft thread. That was the prevailing view until the Sox made him a 3B at GCL. That he'd be used at shortstop until he proved he couldn't handle it. ADD: What might trigger a memory here is that during the delay between when it was announced that Devers was coming to America and the time that he actually came, posters were speculating that Chavis would be moved to shortstop. It didn't work out that way. That's about when people started to view him as a permanent 3Bman.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 19, 2015 8:53:04 GMT -5
Some BP notes for the Mets and Sox (Moore): Mostly Margot & Stankiewicz but also a note on Ball, Chavis & Guerra. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25822LOL, ya can't script this stuff: " Michael Chavis (Red Sox) split time between shortstop and third base with in the GCL this season, but his thick legs lead me to believe his days up the middle are numbered, with the big question being how the Red Sox handle he and Devers at third base at the same level"
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 19, 2015 9:07:25 GMT -5
Quite a nice writeup of Margot in that piece.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 19, 2015 9:09:32 GMT -5
Also, first time I've heard the word 'tremendous' in a description of Trey Ball.
Anyone down there in Florida see Ball throwing yet?
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 19, 2015 11:08:08 GMT -5
It seems like Chavis has been flying under the radar a bit with all the Moncada/Devers hype. Hoping for a nice year from him. Oh yeah, remember our 2014 first round pick? I really imagine that guys like that get underrated overall just because of the bias to not have too many prospects from the same team listed in the top 100. Ditto for teams that don't have very many. There's just not enough bandwidth for Chavis hype. I don't think he's underrated, he just doesn't have the ceiling the guys like Devers and Moncada do. He is very advanced, for a high schooler so you would expect him to do well at Greenville. Probably will have to wait till AA to truly get tested.
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 19, 2015 11:14:50 GMT -5
By the way....while we are at it....how exactly do they plan to fit, Moncada, Chavis, and Devers on the same team? Does this mean Doubon sits?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 19, 2015 11:18:53 GMT -5
By the way....while we are at it....how exactly do they plan to fit, Moncada, Chavis, and Devers on the same team? Does this mean Doubon sits? Moncada is starting at 2B. I assume there will be rotating DH'ing. And there is no guarantee that both Devers and Chavis will be breaking camp with Greenville.
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 19, 2015 11:22:44 GMT -5
By the way....while we are at it....how exactly do they plan to fit, Moncada, Chavis, and Devers on the same team? Does this mean Doubon sits? Moncada is starting at 2B. I assume there will be rotating DH'ing. And there is no guarantee that both Devers and Chavis will be breaking camp with Greenville. Devers I could see starting at extended spring.....but I would be shocked if they didn't start Chavis in Greenville given how advanced he is. Personally I think they should put Moncada at 3B in Greenville and be done with it.
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Post by jmei on Mar 19, 2015 12:36:34 GMT -5
I think the rationale behind starting Moncada at 2B is that it's the position he's most comfortable with, which makes a lot of sense to me-- you want to bring him along slowly. Moving Moncada to 3B also exacerbates the logjam rather than resolving it. I think they resolve the logjam by starting Devers in extended spring training. He doesn't turn 19 until October, which would make him among the youngest players in the South Atlantic League if he started in Greenville. At this level in his development, it's probably more important that he (and Moncada and Chavis) get regular reps (both offensively and defensively) than it is what level they get them at. When Moncada gets promoted to Salem (which, fingers crossed, shouldn't take too long), you can jump Devers to Greenville and have Chavis shift to 2B to accomodate him.
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 19, 2015 13:42:49 GMT -5
The rationale behind putting Moncada at 3B is so that he's a big guy who isn't going to end up at 2B so why risk that he gets slammed into by some 18 year old trying to make a name for himself trying to break up the double play.
I too assume that Moncada wouldn't be at Greenville long and from everything I have heard, he could probably handle Salem. But I understand the idea of erring on the side of being conservative with both he and Devers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 19, 2015 14:51:32 GMT -5
The rationale behind putting Moncada at 3B is so that he's a big guy who isn't going to end up at 2B so why risk that he gets slammed into by some 18 year old trying to make a name for himself trying to break up the double play. I too assume that Moncada wouldn't be at Greenville long and from everything I have heard, he could probably handle Salem. But I understand the idea of erring on the side of being conservative with both he and Devers. Not an unreasonable concern, but I'd be more concerned about him doing something awkward at the position he was less familiar with. I've said this on Twitter, but there's a legitimate scenario in which none of those three break camp with the Drive. Same with Guerra. I don't think Moncada is, and I could see them wanting to give Chavis and/or Devers a little bit more time in XST before heading to Greenville. Remember, starting in XST doesn't lock you into going to Lowell. Gun to my head, Chavis and Dubon start in Greenville, Guerra, Moncada and Devers in XST. Moncada to Greenville on May 1 or so. Devers between May 15 or June 1. Guerra a toss up to go to Greenville or Lowell in mid-June based on performance in XST. I wouldn't bet on all that if I didn't have to though.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 19, 2015 14:55:21 GMT -5
Also: Moncada is the same size and build as Chase Utley, he just apparently wears tighter shirts.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 19, 2015 14:56:12 GMT -5
Question, where does Moncada have more external value, 2B or 3B, given his offensive/defensive skills?
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 19, 2015 15:00:00 GMT -5
Honestly, it depends how well he can play those positions. I don't think we have enough info right now to say for sure.
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 19, 2015 15:32:33 GMT -5
Question, where does Moncada have more external value, 2B or 3B, given his offensive/defensive skills? Long term you also have to consider injury possibilities. The 2B is unlike the SS because he is the pivot in the doubleplay more often, and when he is, his back is facing the runner with his weight going towards 3B leaving him in a more vulnerable position.
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Post by jmei on Mar 19, 2015 19:08:10 GMT -5
Question, where does Moncada have more external value, 2B or 3B, given his offensive/defensive skills? Long term you also have to consider injury possibilities. The 2B is unlike the SS because he is the pivot in the doubleplay more often, and when he is, his back is facing the runner with his weight going towards 3B leaving him in a more vulnerable position. I guess I just don't think this is a significant risk. The data seems to show that there's not really a higher injury rate for second basemen compared to other positions, for instance.
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 20, 2015 12:18:04 GMT -5
Long term you also have to consider injury possibilities. The 2B is unlike the SS because he is the pivot in the doubleplay more often, and when he is, his back is facing the runner with his weight going towards 3B leaving him in a more vulnerable position. I guess I just don't think this is a significant risk. The data seems to show that there's not really a higher injury rate for second basemen compared to other positions, for instance. Selection bias. Major league teams tend to only have players at 2B who know how to get out of the way and thus don't get injured more than other positions. Further, as players get older their injury risk might increase and they might move off of 2B or out of baseball. Anytime you use a group of major leaguers to make a statement about an individual player, especially a prospect, you are going to run into that problem.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Mar 20, 2015 13:06:24 GMT -5
You don't want a player with a tricky knee or ankle playing 2B.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 20, 2015 13:09:25 GMT -5
Selection bias. Major league teams tend to only have players at 2B who know how to get out of the way and thus don't get injured more than other positions. Further, as players get older their injury risk might increase and they might move off of 2B or out of baseball. Anytime you use a group of major leaguers to make a statement about an individual player, especially a prospect, you are going to run into that problem. Thats an incredible stretch. First, you could make similar claims about almost any position (i.e., Major league teams tend to only have players at C who know how to avoid collisions at the plate, CF who know how to avoid collisions with other outfielders, etc.). Second, thats a pretty farfetched claim anyways. I've never heard of a major league team that didn't call up a minor leaguer because he needed more experience in avoiding collisions while turning a DP. I'm pretty sure ability to hit and play defense more generally are going to be weighted FAR MORE heavily than one's ability to avoid collisions when deciding if a prospect/player is deemed ready for the majors. With regards to your concern regarding injury risk as age increases leading to a position change: If you read the article that jmei cited, those concerns don't carry much weight either. The best fitting lines suggest that 2B have one of the lowest injury risks before the age of 28, and I can't imagine that you're hypothesizing that these position changes frequently occur before a player's prime years.
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Post by klostrophobic on Mar 20, 2015 13:15:12 GMT -5
Selection bias. Major league teams tend to only have players at 2B who know how to get out of the way and thus don't get injured more than other positions. Further, as players get older their injury risk might increase and they might move off of 2B or out of baseball. Anytime you use a group of major leaguers to make a statement about an individual player, especially a prospect, you are going to run into that problem. Aren't there specific injury risks at all positions, though? I don't think selection bias fits in here. Avoiding collisions is a skill and anyone athletic enough to play second can probably develop this skill. LF: injury from collision with CF (or 3B if he's Adrian Beltre), running into walls (concussion from ball-flight if Jose Canseco) CF: collision with LF/RF, running into walls RF: collision with 2B/CF, walls 1B: runner stepping on leg covering bag, running into dugout steps/wall 2B: running into RF, spiked by baserunner SS: collisions with OF, running into seats if you're Jeter, getting spiked at second base 3B: running into wall, colliding with Ellsbury, interfering with runners in WS games C: too numerous to count
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 20, 2015 13:57:53 GMT -5
OK seriously, this is a really stupid discussion. Take it to off-topic if you want to continue.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Mar 20, 2015 14:39:29 GMT -5
Guerra with a long homerun he pulled. Next inning Devers hit more of a low flying missile for a homer that just went over the right field fence. The kids were happy when Kevin Gausman finally left the game. Met his dad and mom who live in Denver. Nice couple.
Chavis looked very solid playing 3rd with a couple of nice plays and strong throws. Hope he starts in Greenville.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 20, 2015 14:47:37 GMT -5
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 20, 2015 15:45:25 GMT -5
Selection bias. Major league teams tend to only have players at 2B who know how to get out of the way and thus don't get injured more than other positions. Further, as players get older their injury risk might increase and they might move off of 2B or out of baseball. Anytime you use a group of major leaguers to make a statement about an individual player, especially a prospect, you are going to run into that problem. Aren't there specific injury risks at all positions, though? I don't think selection bias fits in here. Avoiding collisions is a skill and anyone athletic enough to play second can probably develop this skill. LF: injury from collision with CF (or 3B if he's Adrian Beltre), running into walls (concussion from ball-flight if Jose Canseco) CF: collision with LF/RF, running into walls RF: collision with 2B/CF, walls 1B: runner stepping on leg covering bag, running into dugout steps/wall 2B: running into RF, spiked by baserunner SS: collisions with OF, running into seats if you're Jeter, getting spiked at second base 3B: running into wall, colliding with Ellsbury, interfering with runners in WS games C: too numerous to count In deference to you Klos I am going to answer your question...in deference to Chris I am going to answer it briefly....very briefly. Selection bias occurs when bad outcomes are automatically excluded from the sample because of a the presence third variable which isn't included. It doesn't prove that the final conclusion is incorrect, it just sullies the evidence presented. There is a section in the article jmei posted where they discuss that.....now onward.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 20, 2015 17:05:43 GMT -5
Guerra with a long homerun he pulled. If he's going to be doing that, then he's going to be in the top 12 by mid-year.
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