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Community Rankings Discussion
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 3, 2015 10:30:52 GMT -5
I'm sorry Brian, but we've had to cancel your membership in the Steven Wright fan club. I'm sure you understand. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 3, 2015 11:53:24 GMT -5
I'm sorry Brian, but we've had to cancel your membership in the Steven Wright fan club. I'm sure you understand. Haha ... I actually forgot he was still eligible until that point in my list and just threw him in there. I think I'm gonna bump him up to around 11 or so ... |
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 3, 2015 12:08:42 GMT -5
I'm sorry Brian, but we've had to cancel your membership in the Steven Wright fan club. I'm sure you understand. Haha ... I actually forgot he was still eligible until that point in my list and just threw him in there. I think I'm gonna bump him up to around 11 or so ... funny, I'm not even a Wright fan and I have him number 11. |
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 3, 2015 12:54:38 GMT -5
I have a really hard time ranking Espinoza and Acosta before they actually pitch.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Apr 3, 2015 16:09:40 GMT -5
I can totally understand Jimed. For me I ranked them on an optimistic high ranking. After hitting on Devers and hearing what kids have done before a pitch was thrown, was my way of thinking. I had a hard time ranking Brentz in the top 40, because he hasn't improve in 2 years, or barely has. Each person ranks differently.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 4, 2015 17:56:53 GMT -5
I have a really hard time ranking Espinoza and Acosta before they actually pitch. This makes sense but I've obviously ranked them the highest of anyone. My reasoning will be controversial but it is my ranking... I like their ceilings and high talent levels and would prefer them in the system to the players under them. Longhi, I may move up a bit. But anyone below these guys are guys with very limited ceilings and even if they are much more likely to hit them, I still prefer the talent of these two. To me Coyle is a dime a dozen guy as is a Stankowicz (who I like). I'm more bullish on Shaw in some ways so he's hard for me to rank. |
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Post by jmei on Apr 4, 2015 21:09:25 GMT -5
Riffing off Dan's preliminary results: forum.soxprospects.com/post/133518/thread- The community likes Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Barnes, and Steven Wright more than the SP official rankings. Sounds about right.
- One thing that's always confused me: why almost everyone has Travis Shaw ranked above Bryce Brentz. Maybe Shaw is a slightly better hitter, but that should be more than made up for by the positional adjustment. Shaw is a little younger, but it's not like he's more projectable or anything-- if anything, Brentz's better raw power probably gives him a slightly higher ceiling. In other words, I think Brentz is slightly underrated while Shaw is slightly overrated.
- I'm starting to rethink where I ranked Stankiewicz. Is he all that much different from, say, Diaz? (Alternatively, maybe Diaz is underrated.)
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Post by charliezink16 on Apr 4, 2015 21:27:57 GMT -5
I consider them to be extremely similar prospects, thus I have Shaw at 18 and Brentz at 20. Brentz may play a more premium position and he certainly has the arm to play RF, but I've been quite disappointed in his fielding abilities from what I've seen. Shaw on the other hand will probably end up as an above average defensive 1B, while being able to fill at 3B on occasion.
Offensively, Brentz has more pop in his bat but also strikes out significantly more. His LD% was quite low last season while his GB% hovered just below 50%. Shaw has a better approach and puts the bat on the ball more often. Shaw is also a year younger, has 3 options remaining (vs. Brentz's 2), and has only spent half a season in AAA while Brentz just repeated the level. Really it's all about preference. I could easily switch Shaw & Brentz and not bat an eye. They're very closely related prospects.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2015 21:50:19 GMT -5
Riffing off Dan's preliminary results: forum.soxprospects.com/post/133518/threadOne thing that's always confused me: why almost everyone has Travis Shaw ranked above Bryce Brentz. Maybe Shaw is a slightly better hitter, but that should be more than made up for by the positional adjustment. Shaw is a little younger, but it's not like he's more projectable or anything-- if anything, Brentz's better raw power probably gives him a slightly higher ceiling. In other words, I think Brentz is slightly underrated while Shaw is slightly overrated. Good topic. I haven't posted a ranking and I'm not planning to do so. But I do have Shaw rated ahead of Brentz, for four reasons. 1. Approach. The difference in plate discipline/plate approach is visible in their statistical profiles, and it's even more jarring when you see them live. And it's not just that Brentz swings at too many bad pitches - he's prone to swinging at a curve in the dirt for strike two, then taking a fastball at the belt for strike three. He's pretty much guessing up there, and MLB pitchers will eat him up. Shaw isn't just patient - he seems like he can identify a curveball and not swing at it. It's possible big league pitchers who can throw their curves for strikes consistently will be Shaw's undoing, but I think he could put up a .320 OBP in the majors. I don't feel confident that Brentz could post a .300 right now. 2. Health. At some level, the ability to deal with the rigors of the long season is a skill. Shaw has been able to appear in 80 more games than Brentz over the last two seasons. That's a sign his body is more able to deal with the schedule and also something that has helped him improve. Which brings us to... 3. Development. Brentz had a very good 2011 season, and has basically gone sideways since. I'd say he's improved some on his jumps in the outfield, but other than that he has the same problems he did when he was drafted. Shaw has hit bouts of resistance, particularly at Double-A, but he improved. His swing, for example, is much smoother and less mechanical than it was in 2012 when I saw him with Portland. 4. Versatility. Shaw has been working out at third and I wouldn't be shocked to see him see some time in the outfield this year. He's not at all fast so his range will probably be poor, but if he can play it adequately enough then he has a chance to be a 4C backup type. You're right that Brentz's best skill - his power - is stronger than any specific tool that Shaw possesses. But I just don't think that outweighs the other differences |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2015 22:41:49 GMT -5
I have a really hard time ranking Espinoza and Acosta before they actually pitch. I had no trouble ranking Espinoza aggressively, based on the scouting reports, and the video of him at age 15 (and 4 months), which shows, to my untrained eye, wonderful mechanics, and an 85-87 FB (now reportedly up to 94), solid or better 75-78 change, and promising 69-72 curve. But it's the mechanics -- balanced, fluid, efficient -- that really have caught my eye. |
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 5, 2015 9:10:19 GMT -5
I think if Brentz plays in the majors, he'll be the short end of a platoon - a Johnny Gomes type. He almost looks the same in the field (slight exaggeration, but his routes are pretty awkward). Shaw doesn't have big splits.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2015 12:09:49 GMT -5
To me, power's a great tool to have. Certainly more important than arm. That said, it's also useless if you can't get the bat on the ball.
I agree with the point James made about health - Brentz has missed out on two or three call-ups over the past two years because he wasn't healthy (and I'm not counting the gun incident, which cost him a ST invite in 2013).
I don't think the gap's huge, and I do think people underrate Brentz because he's old hat at this point. We had a long discussion about where to rank Brentz at ST and I think a couple of us came to the realization that we'd been doing that. There's something to his putting up >.200 Isolated Power marks in Triple-A even in bad years.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2015 7:47:11 GMT -5
My problem with Brentz is I pretty much firmly believe that he would be exposed badly at the MLB level and won't get the bat on the ball enough to even worry about the other stuff giving him an edge over Shaw.
On the other hand, besides playing third base, I can see Shaw being a poor mans Youk once he's comfortable in the majors. However, I can also see him struggling this year in AAA and falling off the map, but I think he's got a lot more upside potential than Brentz.
Upside potential is the official scouting term used for the likelihood of someone reaching their full ceiling.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 6, 2015 9:58:16 GMT -5
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2015 10:33:10 GMT -5
Oh I was being sarcastic and making fun of the stupid term I used... Felt like Jay Bilas on NBA draft night.
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dd
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Post by dd on Apr 6, 2015 14:36:42 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Apr 6, 2015 17:26:12 GMT -5
A few scattered responses:
-Brentz's plate recognition is certainly a weakness, but it's not like his strikeout rate has been that high in the high minors. He put up a 21.7% K rate in Pawtucket last year, which was actually lower than Shaw's 22% at the same level. Granted, I didn't see Pawtucket at all last year, so I don't know if Brentz's lower K rate/higher BB rate last year is a small sample mirage or genuine improvement, but if even some of that sticks, he's the better offensive player.
-In general, I think the idea that Brentz is some whiff machine while Shaw has a huge edge in contact is exaggerated. Aside from a half year in Portland, Shaw's strikeout rates haven't been too great, either. Remember, patient hitters tend to strike out more since they find themselves in more two-strike counts, whereas an aggressive hitter with quick enough wrists/bat speed can hide bad plate discipline by making enough contact early in the count to avoid a bunch of empty outs (think Josh Reddick). It's great if Shaw has the pitch recognition to track curveballs, but if he doesn't have the bat speed to punish inside fastballs, it's not going to do much for him.
-Fair point on health and development. But a year or two is still a pretty small sample, and Brentz had always been pretty healthy before that. Never good to see hamstring and knee stuff, though.
-I'm really skeptical that Shaw gets real playing time at 3B or in the outfield corners. He just doesn't have the foot speed and quickness to be more than an emergency option at those spots. Say what you will about Brentz's routes, but he's got a pretty good arm, and a slightly below-average corner outfielder still easily out-positional-adjustments a slightly above-average first baseman.
-The fact that Brentz has a clear major league role (short end of an OF corner platoon) is actually a plus to me. You know he can add value versus LHP, whereas I'm not sure how useful Shaw is if he's not a starter (and I don't think he is). 1B only guys make for pretty meh bench options, especially if they don't have big enough splits to be that useful in a platoon.
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