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Red Sox just extended Porcello, through the 2019 season
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Post by okin15 on Apr 7, 2015 13:39:31 GMT -5
I'm actually with mgoetze. Without the benefit of seeing what he does this year, which could change things in either direction (loses job before year is up, or solidifies it with a great year), I'd project he'll need to fight Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson off to keep his rotation spot. Good news is he's got options, so he'll be both cheap and still under control if he loses that battle.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 7, 2015 13:44:41 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if Johnson couldn't fill the 5 spot adequately sometime soon. Definitely wouldn't shock me if he proved himself to be as good or better than Kelly. He might get a chance sooner than later when injuries come.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 7, 2015 14:18:33 GMT -5
Thats a good point jmei, I was thinking Fister in particular seems like a guy they'd target.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 7, 2015 14:38:24 GMT -5
A "clear bias for front office" comes from things like this: www.theplayerstribune.com/rick-porcello-boston-red-sox-contract-extension/What Rick Porcello is saying here is "this place is so much better than in Detroit". It almost has to be taken this way because he didn't think he was going to be interested in an extension when he was traded here. The front office has created this environment. Oh and also provided us with the #2 farm system and probably #1 system for under 25 players. If you're not happy with the front office now, you never ever will be. Maybe you'll never be happy with anything.Bravo jimed14. Some folks have no idea how great things are currently!
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 7, 2015 14:47:14 GMT -5
I honestly believe Brian Johnson could give us a solid average performance now. If a "quality start" is 6 innings and 3 runs are fewer, that comes out to an ERA of 4.50. I like Joe Kelly, but I do think Johnson can give us a 4.50 ERA right now, at least. Kelly better, when he gets in the swing again, give us a consistent chance to win most nights or a guy like Johnson is only a few miles away.
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Post by templeusox on Apr 7, 2015 15:09:46 GMT -5
It's so funny how things work out. Instead of potentially drafting him and having him as a mediocre-good pitcher on our team for 5 years, we get him entering his prime and skip all the frustration.
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Post by soxfan06 on Apr 7, 2015 16:32:10 GMT -5
Boy, the idiots on sports radio are out in full force today.
My favorite was the tool who called in and said "How can you give $20M to a guy who isn't even a proven 15 game winner" and Felger and Mazz were eating it up agreeing with him.
It is entertaining for the truly knowledgeable baseball fan.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 7, 2015 16:37:28 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 7, 2015 17:01:22 GMT -5
I don't know what what the point of Felger and Mazz is. Dale and Holley is a lot better and Dale Arnold reads this site ive heard.
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Post by ray88h66 on Apr 7, 2015 17:39:50 GMT -5
Smart signing. Both sides took risks. I was as mad as anyone when they didn't sign Lester, but I got it. Ben seems to have a solid plan.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 7, 2015 17:55:43 GMT -5
I don't know what what the point of Felger and Mazz is. Dale and Holley is a lot better and Dale Arnold reads this site ive heard. Get ratings. They do that. What can ya do?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 7, 2015 18:07:28 GMT -5
What I find amusing is people who watch them knowing what they are gonna say then act surprised or outraged.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 7, 2015 18:54:23 GMT -5
Your not wrong....there is a very clear bias among the majority of posters on this website for the front office. What I like about this deal is that both sides seemed to give respect to the other side by compromise/reward This coming from the guy he actually stated a month or two ago in an earlier thread that he has an anti-management perspective in general, whether it be the Red Sox or IBM. I actually think the majority of posters are willing to criticize the FO - Ben or whomever - when warranted. But they're also willing to give kudos when kudos are due. The fact is, this ownership group has brought Red Sox nation 3 World Series championships in the past 14 years (and one hell of an exciting 2003), something the Sox hadn't seen in the previous 86 years. They also have (and generally have had) a strong farm system, so it hasn't been done by gutting the farm system. So to the degree that there is any bias towards ownership/management, it's because fans (especially those old enough to remember the many years of heartache) have a certain amount of trust that this ownership knows what it's doing - for the most part. But there were many voices of criticism when they hired Bobby V. There have been criticisms of the handling of the John Lester contract situation. Etc. It's just hard to find too much fault with the Porcello contract when you focus on his most recent years (other than the ones when he was rushed to the majors at age 20 and wasn't really ready for another 2-3 years), his durability, the level of defense of where he was playing and where he is now, and the fact that he'll be under contract for his age 26-30 years. There's risk in every contract for a pitcher at this level, but this seems like a reasonable risk. And the Band Played on.......... A true pack mentality shows it's nature. I didn't criticize the deal either, I appreciated the critical thinking of the members post regarding the pitchers value.....and I commented that the tendency of people to infuse front office brilliance for these type of deals...when in fact I don't think it was a major contributor. Your confusing criticism with critical thinking and the visceral reaction to my statement proves my point. I have philosophies about management so what? They bleed into the Sox FO? So what? I don't view this FO as exceptional at this point, based on their record for 2 out of the 3 seasons. They've been on the record themselves as it being deficient. Doesn't mean I think they are terrible...or I don't care about them and their successes. It just means that I choose to voice my opinions as I see fit. Lastly, I have been through the battles. I grew up in NY amongst Yankee fans. I've sat in the bleachers in Yankee stadium, decked out in Sox Garb....hat smacked off my head.....crowd pointing their anger directly at me.....Have anyone else? I am grateful for the last 14 years...as I am grateful for the first 26 years I've been a fan. If people view me as an unhappy Sox fan....that's not my problem....nothing could be further from the truth.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 7, 2015 19:55:55 GMT -5
In general, next year's team projects to look a lot like this year's team. The only significant free-agents-to-be are Napoli, Victorino, Masterson, and Mujica, and Napoli is really the only one of those without a ready-made replacement in the wings (and even there, there's Craig and the possibility that the Red Sox offer him the QO and he accepts). There's also definitely a scenario where JBJ is in CF next year, flanked by Mookie and Rusney, and Hanley is at 1B. It's what would be logical if JBJ hits well and Hanley doesn't field all that well. And finally, there's the slim chance of a big Cecchini season, plus position switch. I'm pretty convinced that Napoli will have a QO-caliber year. The only dilemma I can foresee is one where you don't really want to re-sign him for two years because you project to have Moncada at 3B and Sandoval at 1B in 2017, the above JBJ scenario isn't happening, and Craig (supplemented by Nava or Cecchini versus the toughest RHP) doesn't even seem like a viable one-year stopgap. I think they'll be OK.
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Post by ray88h66 on Apr 7, 2015 20:02:09 GMT -5
I don't think it's a pack mentality Jerry. I've been on the minority end of many discussions here. People push back. I think it's just most disagree with me on the issue.
Good for you going into Yankee stadium in Red Sox gear. I've been in many parks wearing red but not there. Did go into a bar in NY with my Red Sox gear, it was interesting.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 7, 2015 23:16:20 GMT -5
I'm actually with mgoetze. Without the benefit of seeing what he does this year, which could change things in either direction (loses job before year is up, or solidifies it with a great year), I'd project [Kelly]'ll need to fight Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson off to keep his rotation spot. I'm hoping he'll be good enough to combine with an offensively flourishing Marrero to get Cueto at the deadline. Six years of good starting SS plus three of a mid-rotation starter is easily better than two months of an ace, plus a draft pick. And of course, whatever Marrero lacks with the bat can be made up via a third player. (And why would we do that? Because we have more talent than we can use. Marrero has no useful value to us, and if one of the young pitchers can take Kelly's spot at his level, neither does he. In fact, trading every July for a rental ace, and then taking the draft pick, is one good way to use that excess talent.) To get back on topic, ESPN today ran a horrifyingly awful analysis that compared Porcello's career numbers to those of other pitchers signed to $20M+ AAV contracts, at the time they signed their deals. Really. For the record, here are bWAR totals for ages 24 and 25 of guys who have signed deals with an AAV of $20M but less than $25M: Cain 7.4 (4.6, 2.8) Shields 7.2 (1.7, 5.5) Porcello 6.4 (2.4, 4.0) Hamels 6.2 (4.3, 1.9) Weaver 5.1 (2.7, 2.4) Scherzer 4.6 (1.3, 3.3) Wilson -0.3 (-0.6, 0.3) Furthermore, he's tied with one of the $25M men, Sabathia (Lester blows everyone away with 12.6). When you factor in paying-for-prime versus paying-for-decline, of course, it looks that much better. However ... if you try to find comps to his career path, based strictly on WAR put up at ages pre-24 (best year to that point), 24, and 25, it's not that great a group. Randy Wolf, Ben McDonald, Jon Garland, Jack McDowell, Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza, Chan Ho Park, and Dan Haren seem to be reasonable. McDowell and Haren are the only ones whose performances at ages 27 - 30 would have be worth that contract these days. McDonald, Park, and Wolf got hurt, Garland lost it at age 28, and Garza and Jackson had already peaked.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Apr 7, 2015 23:36:13 GMT -5
You don't get a draft pick in that scenario anymore though.
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Post by jmei on Apr 7, 2015 23:45:14 GMT -5
You don't get a draft pick in that scenario anymore though. The Reds would get a pick if they kept him, which is why he includes it. But more importantly, what Cueto goes for will not be determined in reference to what he's worth to the Reds. It'll be what any other team is willing to trade for Cueto. Winner's curse and all that.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 8, 2015 0:54:17 GMT -5
The thing with this contract is that you don't really need excess value at the front of it because there shouldn't be any decline at the end of it. Very little chance of this not being a good deal, relatively speaking. This extension really makes the Lester > Cespedes > Porcello trades look a lot better. They were already pretty decent. Absolutely. Essentially, they got a pitcher five years younger, for a 20% AAV discount and a total savings sufficient to pay for Yoan Moncada's bonus. Porcello is thus more tradeable, wants to be here, likes the team, wants to win, and is an excellent bet to outperform Lester over the term of the contract. All of this without the $55M albatross at the end of it, when Lester will be 37-38 and probably awful, or at best just OK. They basically turned a 1a on his way to becoming a 3 for a 2 on his way to becoming a 1a or a 1, with a limited-term extension, during a durable young pitcher's complete prime years. That is **amazing** wheeling and dealing.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 8, 2015 6:51:43 GMT -5
Overall I like the deal, it seems fair. Porcello get's a good AAV and free agency at age 30, Sox don't have to over commit on the years to a pitcher. I will say, with all the spending the Red Sox have made recently, they may be limited some of their options going forward. They must be comfortable will the youth talent they have to fill out the roster for cheap in the future. As of now, we have 113M committed to 9 players for 2016, Porcello, Sandoval, Hanley, Pedroia, Castillo, Craig, Uehara, Miley and Hanigan. This doesn't count Ortiz's + Buchholz options, or Napoli's and Masterson's free agency (Victorino too), along with arbitration eligible, Kelly, Tazawa, Ogando, Nava, Varvaro, and Ross. They will be mostly cheap given their value, but a conservative guess is those 6 will cost at least another 10M. Is that counting Craig's salary or his AAV? The latter is smaller than the former next year ... it's not a huge amount (~$3 million iirc), but it's a factor.
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Post by tonyc on Apr 8, 2015 11:34:14 GMT -5
Agree Telson,
This largely cleans up the Lester situation. In my guts right from the get go while he made all the correct statements last year I suspected some Macchiavelli. Jerry, I spent most of my life in NY. Once in 1976 I was cheering and standing up while the sox laid it on all game- then Roy White hit a winning 3 run homer and a fan slapped me in the back so hard I lost balance and could have fallen from the upper deck to my death. Another time I returned home around 1973 from a Yankee doubleheader sweep and I saw a rival fanatic Yankee fan in my Brooklyn who I frequently played ball had been pacing for hours ready to lash into me- I quickly ran away through a basement depriving him.
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 8, 2015 13:38:07 GMT -5
Is that counting Craig's salary or his AAV? The latter is smaller than the former next year ... it's not a huge amount (~$3 million iirc), but it's a factor. Directly from Cots, which should be payroll due that year. Honestly I don't think the AAV matters much to the Sox anymore. They seem content to go over in consecutive years, just as long as they don't freeze themselves into the top tax bracket for eternity like the Yankees have. Boy I just don't agree with this. Marrero goes perfectly with the Red Sox philosophy of building a deep team. This is a guy who has all his options, and should be an above replacement level player right now based on his defense alone. He might not have a clear road to the show, but it is like having a young Brendan Ryan, or Alcides Escobar waiting as depth in the minors, with some chance to grow into an averaie-ish bat, and no real cost. If Xander goes down, the options are Hanley, Holt, or Marrero at SS before going externally. You can argue any case, but Marrero could be the best option with Porcello, Miley, Kelly, and Masterson generating all those ground balls (although Hanley there would help our OF logjam). For reference, Blue Jays backup SS is Steve Tolleson, Dodgers is Justin Turner, Angels is Josh Rutledge, Cardnals is Pete Kozma. Admittedly, I took these from Fangraphs/MLB.com, and don't know much about some of these guys. Kozma seems comparable to Marrero based on his Fangraphs stats.
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Post by Smittyw on Apr 8, 2015 14:38:00 GMT -5
Boy, the idiots on sports radio are out in full force today. My favorite was the tool who called in and said "How can you give $20M to a guy who isn't even a proven 15 game winner" and Felger and Mazz were eating it up agreeing with him. It is entertaining for the truly knowledgeable baseball fan. What the heck is a "proven 15 game winner"? Does that mean they don't want Hamels, who won 9 last year and 8 the year before?
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Post by jchang on Apr 8, 2015 14:54:12 GMT -5
A "proven 15 game winner" is someone who has several 15 win seasons, such that he is probably well over 30, ... oh yeah, probably on the downside of a very good career,
just like Pujols was a proven 328/420/617 hitter when the Angels signed him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 8, 2015 14:59:35 GMT -5
Is that counting Craig's salary or his AAV? The latter is smaller than the former next year ... it's not a huge amount (~$3 million iirc), but it's a factor. Directly from Cots, which should be payroll due that year. Honestly I don't think the AAV matters much to the Sox anymore. They seem content to go over in consecutive years, just as long as they don't freeze themselves into the top tax bracket for eternity like the Yankees have. Boy I just don't agree with this. Marrero goes perfectly with the Red Sox philosophy of building a deep team. This is a guy who has all his options, and should be an above replacement level player right now based on his defense alone. He might not have a clear road to the show, but it is like having a young Brendan Ryan, or Alcides Escobar waiting as depth in the minors, with some chance to grow into an averaie-ish bat, and no real cost. If Xander goes down, the options are Hanley, Holt, or Marrero at SS before going externally. You can argue any case, but Marrero could be the best option with Porcello, Miley, Kelly, and Masterson generating all those ground balls (although Hanley there would help our OF logjam). For reference, Blue Jays backup SS is Steve Tolleson, Dodgers is Justin Turner, Angels is Josh Rutledge, Cardnals is Pete Kozma. Admittedly, I took these from Fangraphs/MLB.com, and don't know much about some of these guys. Kozma seems comparable to Marrero based on his Fangraphs stats. A very good point: it would suck for Marrero, but if we kept him in Pawtucket for a few years, he would add value as injury insurance. So what I meant to say is that he would have much more value as a good starter to some other team than he would to us a AAA insurance policy. Now, one of the things good, deep teams do is keep guys who are good enough to start elsewhere. It seems likely that we'll convert Barnes to relief even if he's good enough to start, just because he projects to be relatively (although not absolutely) more valuable in the pen, and there will be no room for him in the rotation. I like the idea of Cecchini succeeding Nava as the LH bench bat who can play corner OF and 1B, with the ability to play 3B as a big extra, even if he turns out to be good enough to start for some clubs. But if Marrero hits at all, I think the difference between his trade value and his kept value will be too great not to cash in on.
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