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Salty
Nov 11, 2012 13:55:10 GMT -5
Post by Don Caballero on Nov 11, 2012 13:55:10 GMT -5
People around here get crazy when we lose a Michael Olmsted sort of guy, but are quick to want to trade away some dudes who, you know, have a chance to have any success.
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Salty
Nov 11, 2012 15:35:13 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Nov 11, 2012 15:35:13 GMT -5
...Lavarnaway develops into a 25-30 HR/year guy, with a.380+ OBP. That's exactly where he's going. yea, we know and Iglesias will hit 270 and Napoli will hit 300 with 30+ HRs & drive in 100 and Nava will be an on base machine while hitting 300 with 20 HRs and Dan Haren won't be hurt & win 15+ with an era of 3 & 200 KS and Edward Jackson will dominate the American League East and Kuroda is a stud and (this is the best one) Dickey is an "Ace"
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Salty
Nov 11, 2012 16:20:47 GMT -5
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 11, 2012 16:20:47 GMT -5
Not to beat it to death, the only point I was making is that a guy who's just come up from AAA where he was effective, but who had all of 166 PAs and puny numbers in 2012, may not be the best guy to package up in a trade. I think he's going to do very well, but I also think he should be given a chance to show that, before being sent packing for what would probably be 50 cents on the dollar.
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Salty
Nov 11, 2012 16:21:59 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 11, 2012 16:21:59 GMT -5
If most scouts and industry sources believed that Lavarnway is likely to become a .380 OBP hitter with 25-30 home runs a season, then it would not matter if he was bad bodied DH, he would be one of the most coveted and talked about prospects in baseball.
I like Lavarnway's bat a lot, but I would be thrilled if he ever becomes a .340 OBP hitter with 15-20 home run power. Lets keep our expectations somewhat tied to reality.
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Salty
Nov 11, 2012 18:30:31 GMT -5
Post by jmei on Nov 11, 2012 18:30:31 GMT -5
The problem with Lavarnway is that despite his great statistical performance, he doesn't really present any elite tools. He has solid bat speed and good plate discipline, but he doesn't have elite raw power (like Bogaerts or (gulp) Almanzar) or especially quick/strong wrists (like Pedroia or (gulp) Iglesias).
In fact, Chris' scouting reports indicate a bit of a long swing capable of being exploited by high velocity fastballs on the inner third. Lavarnway tried to fix this problem last year by being quicker to the ball and choking up on the bat (a la Alex Hassan), and while he struck out much less than in years past (and thus hit for a higher average), that approach seemed to drain much of his power (his .439 SLG at AAA was his lowest since he was in Lowell in 2008). He needs to be able to put everything together and hit for both average and power, which may be difficult given his lack of elite tools. If you read his SP.com scouting report, he sounds more like a mistake hitter who will likely struggle to reach his minor league statistical heights at the MLB level than someone who has a real shot to be a .380 OBP, 30 home run bat.
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Salty
Nov 11, 2012 20:29:37 GMT -5
Post by mainesox on Nov 11, 2012 20:29:37 GMT -5
...Lavarnaway develops into a 25-30 HR/year guy, with a.380+ OBP. That's exactly where he's going. yea, we know and Iglesias will hit 270 and Napoli will hit 300 with 30+ HRs & drive in 100 and Nava will be an on base machine while hitting 300 with 20 HRs and Dan Haren won't be hurt & win 15+ with an era of 3 & 200 KS and Edward Jackson will dominate the American League East and Kuroda is a stud and (this is the best one) Dickey is an "Ace" and Brentz will be a middle of the order hitter...
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Salty
Nov 11, 2012 22:52:02 GMT -5
Post by redsoxprospects on Nov 11, 2012 22:52:02 GMT -5
Salty is sure worth more than he was 2 years ago when we obtained him from Texas for several low A prospects wasn't it. He couldn't even get PT in Texas, in that bandbox park, with very little competition at the catching position at that time ( before Napoli ). Defensively weak with little potential for improvement at this point at least defensively.
I really do not like players with acute upper cut swings. It is inherently bad for making good contact, especially at the mlb level. At the same time he is still young and obviously very strong. It's possible he becomes an even bigger HR threat. Some team still should take a flyer on that IMO. i just do not think he is a good fit for the Redsox.
I like the Redsox philosophy of lots of guys working the count, wearing down pitchers and maximizing OBP. I think history shows that the #5 and 6 slots sure benefit from more free swingers though ( especially RH in the Redsox lineup ) like Beltre, Lowell, Middlebrooks...etc. With that in mind I can see a Torri Hunter slotted there but that is another thread.
Back on point, Salty is not our type of guy offensively or defensively. He is just not a championship type catcher IMO. I think we should try to trade him this winter. i think they have been trying to move him for a long time now but just can't find decent value for him any more.
More on Lavarnway in another post.
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Salty
Nov 11, 2012 23:01:38 GMT -5
Post by redsoxprospects on Nov 11, 2012 23:01:38 GMT -5
I was so disappointed with the results we say from Lavarnway at the mlb level last fall. There is no way to sugarcoat it. He may not be the player at least I projected.
I prefer to look at it as mainly just small sample size though and a learning curve at the mlb level. The end of the year after he had caught more games than ever. All the build up and expectations. Sometimes with slugger types it is mainly timing. He always was able to get around on FB in the minors. He was off balance more at the mlb level and this happens to a lot of players. I think he should not try to pull the ball at least for a while. Try to take it up the middle. Some balls he will be ahead of the pitch and pull it. Some he will take to right. He should focus on getting a good pitch to hit and drive it at least somewhere.
Lots of power guys are streaky. Lots of big swingers go through periods where their timing is off. Then they go on a tear and hit 10 HR in one month. We should throw Lavarnway out there in 2013 and let him work through it. If he doesn't at least we know definitively. If he does work out we have a lot of value there and maybe a key piece on a championship level team in a few years. I still believe in this kid.
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Salty
Nov 12, 2012 11:02:23 GMT -5
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 12, 2012 11:02:23 GMT -5
The problem with Lavarnway is that despite his great statistical performance, he doesn't really present any elite tools. He has solid bat speed and good plate discipline, but he doesn't have elite raw power (like Bogaerts or (gulp) Almanzar) or especially quick/strong wrists (like Pedroia or (gulp) Iglesias). I'm not sure how "elite power" gets defined. Maybe you've been watching a different player than I have. I saw him crush a ball in Seattle that was in territory that I'd only seen Manny visit previously. Safeco is a tough place for right-handers to homer (that will change this year). Of course, I don't go to all the games. It hit the smaller scoreboard in left field, on a line, in about four seconds, and that's not an exaggeration. The left fielder had time to take about 3 steps towards the wall. I decided then and there that he has tremendous raw power. Might be good to remember he hit a combined 32 in AA-AAA at the age of 23 in only 503 plate appearances.
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Salty
Nov 12, 2012 11:40:35 GMT -5
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 12, 2012 11:40:35 GMT -5
If most scouts and industry sources believed that Lavarnway is likely to become a .380 OBP hitter with 25-30 home runs a season, then it would not matter if he was bad bodied DH, he would be one of the most coveted and talked about prospects in baseball. I like Lavarnway's bat a lot, but I would be thrilled if he ever becomes a .340 OBP hitter with 15-20 home run power. Lets keep our expectations somewhat tied to reality. This is an attitude I just don't understand. What basis do you have for 15-20 home runs? If you mean he'd always be limited in his playing time, I might come around. That's always been the issue, where do you play him. At catcher he could see reduced playing time. But as a regular player there's no reason on earth to think he'd homer like Pedroia, none. The idea that there's some sort of magic door that shrinks players when they enter the majors should be scraped. Let's do some arithmetic. In the minors Pedroia hit a homer every 50 PAs. In the majors it's been every 37. For Ellsbury it's every 46 PAs in the majors every 111 PAs in the minors. Since those are obviously not the best comparisons - guys who's main tool is not power - let's take someone who does have some pop, Reddick. In the minors Reddick hit one home run every 23 PAs, in the majors one every 26 PAs. He finally got a chance to play this year. In 673 PAs he hit 32 home runs, one every 21 plate appearances. In the minor leagues Lavarnway has averaged a home run every 23 PAs. What you're telling me is that if he were to get a full season, say 600 PAs, he'd perhaps get one home run every 35 PAs. That doesn't add up. Of course there are scounts - and GMs - in the industry who know that. Do you honestly believe they'll use that as their negotiating position in talks with the Red Sox? Of course not, they'll use the low number of PAs and the poor stats in that very small sample size to lowball his value. Why would they do otherwise? Which brings me around to my original point: why would you trade him when he's barely had a chance to shine?
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Salty
Nov 12, 2012 11:50:26 GMT -5
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 12, 2012 11:50:26 GMT -5
Lavarnway also hit 10 home runs the entire season last year, but whatever, that obviously doesn't mean anything.
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Salty
Nov 12, 2012 12:23:19 GMT -5
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 12, 2012 12:23:19 GMT -5
Lavarnway also hit 10 home runs the entire season last year, but whatever, that obviously doesn't mean anything. That is a relevant question but given the way he's been working on his swing - he's already got a rep as someone who never stops refining his skills - I'd say the jury's out. If you think that's indicative of his power stroke, that's fine. I think I'll go with the 1000+ PA sample size he's accumulated. How many players have lousy starts to start their season? How many have lousy finishes? How many have months when they look like they should be back in the minors? Given the random variation inherent in a ballplayer's statistics, the despair and disappointment are unwarranted, to my mind. Give the guy a real chance before you sell short.
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Salty
Nov 12, 2012 14:46:17 GMT -5
Post by larrycook on Nov 12, 2012 14:46:17 GMT -5
Lavarnway also hit 10 home runs the entire season last year, but whatever, that obviously doesn't mean anything. That is a relevant question but given the way he's been working on his swing - he's already got a rep as someone who never stops refining his skills - I'd say the jury's out. If you think that's indicative of his power stroke, that's fine. I think I'll go with the 1000+ PA sample size he's accumulated. How many players have lousy starts to start their season? How many have lousy finishes? How many have months when they look like they should be back in the minors? Given the random variation inherent in a ballplayer's statistics, the despair and disappointment are unwarranted, to my mind. Give the guy a real chance before you sell short. I think that offensively Lavarnway is going to rake in the majors for power and a decent average, but will have a high strike out rate and a less than stellar OBP. The biggest thing that sticks with me when watching him is that he seems so mechanical defensively with the agility of a statue. Hard to shake that image.
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Salty
Nov 12, 2012 16:06:47 GMT -5
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 12, 2012 16:06:47 GMT -5
That is a relevant question but given the way he's been working on his swing - he's already got a rep as someone who never stops refining his skills - I'd say the jury's out. If you think that's indicative of his power stroke, that's fine. I think I'll go with the 1000+ PA sample size he's accumulated. How many players have lousy starts to start their season? How many have lousy finishes? How many have months when they look like they should be back in the minors? Given the random variation inherent in a ballplayer's statistics, the despair and disappointment are unwarranted, to my mind. Give the guy a real chance before you sell short. I think that offensively Lavarnway is going to rake in the majors for power and a decent average, but will have a high strike out rate and a less than stellar OBP. The biggest thing that sticks with me when watching him is that he seems so mechanical defensively with the agility of a statue. Hard to shake that image. Wondering what makes you say that when OBP was the one area where Lavarnway was consistently good in the first part of the season, and given that he's had consistently excellent OBP numbers throughout his minor league career.
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Post by patrmac04 on Nov 13, 2012 21:17:48 GMT -5
Interesting article about how the pirates and sox match up for a trade. mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121112&content_id=40253692&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlbHow convenient:Pirates general manager Neal Huntington and Boston Red Sox counterpart Ben Cherington, both graduates of the University of Massachusetts, will be on the Amherst campus Tuesday night to participate in the school's "Covering the Bases -- An Evening with our GMs" program.Huntington needs a catcher -- bad. Cherington has three of them. So could the roundtable discussion -- which will also involve Indians GM Chris Antonetti -- include a little sidebar session between Huntington and Cherington?The only receiver on the Bucs' 40-man roster is Michael McKenry, who will have an important but as-yet undetermined role on the 2013 club. Boston recently signed free agent David Ross, adding him to Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway, who between them started 120 games last season (although the Red Sox are also in hot pursuit of another free agent, Mike Napoli; they like him as a first baseman).The Bucs and the BoSox could be compatible trade partners. Boston's areas of need include first base and the outfield, and the Pirates have a surplus of Major League experience at both. Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Salty
Nov 14, 2012 3:18:47 GMT -5
Post by charliezink16 on Nov 14, 2012 3:18:47 GMT -5
I agree with the idea that the power should translate to the bigs, and 15-20 HR's isn't what we'd expect. But, as fenwaythehardway pointed out, Ryan only hit 10 total HR's last season. In Lavarnway's scouting report, Chris Mellen states that he:
"Likes to get arms extended, which leads to some struggles on the inside third. Needs work pulling hands in against inside fastballs at big league level. Tends to get eaten up by two-seamers from right-handed pitchers."
I'm not 100% positive on this, but I believe last season was about shortening his swing, decreasing strikeout rates, and increasing contact. It did somewhat work...in 2011 between AA/AAA he struck out in 24.60% out of 435 AB's, while in 2012 he struck out in just 19.43% out of 319 AAA AB's (discounting MLB at-bats). Obviously though, his HR rates dropped from 7.36% to 2.50%. If Lavarnway is to reach his ceiling, he'll have to learn to shorten his swing, strike out less, and maintain his power, so basically putting together what he learned in 2012 with his previous power.
Fortunately, he has proven to be an extremely hard worker, so it's not something you can rule out. It's just a matter of whether Boston is willing to accept his high K rates in return for increased HR numbers.
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Salty
Nov 14, 2012 11:31:25 GMT -5
Post by redsoxprospects on Nov 14, 2012 11:31:25 GMT -5
All the above seems generally positive about Lavarnway but we just spent over $6 mil on a 2 year deal for RH hitting Ross. Wouldn't that indicate that Lavarnway is to be traded or sent back to AAA ball? I'm hoping AAA ball as back up. If he is not slotted at the mlb level. Ross has relatively even splits. He wouldn't necessarily be bad in a RH/RH platoon. I would prefer to see Salty shopped but they appear to have been doing that for a while with no success.
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Salty
Nov 14, 2012 12:21:55 GMT -5
Post by sibbysisti on Nov 14, 2012 12:21:55 GMT -5
Interesting article about how the pirates and sox match up for a trade. mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121112&content_id=40253692&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlbHow convenient:Pirates general manager Neal Huntington and Boston Red Sox counterpart Ben Cherington, both graduates of the University of Massachusetts, will be on the Amherst campus Tuesday night to participate in the school's "Covering the Bases -- An Evening with our GMs" program.Huntington needs a catcher -- bad. Cherington has three of them. So could the roundtable discussion -- which will also involve Indians GM Chris Antonetti -- include a little sidebar session between Huntington and Cherington?The only receiver on the Bucs' 40-man roster is Michael McKenry, who will have an important but as-yet undetermined role on the 2013 club. Boston recently signed free agent David Ross, adding him to Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway, who between them started 120 games last season (although the Red Sox are also in hot pursuit of another free agent, Mike Napoli; they like him as a first baseman).The Bucs and the BoSox could be compatible trade partners. Boston's areas of need include first base and the outfield, and the Pirates have a surplus of Major League experience at both. Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards I found it interesting that Ben Cherington got the information about the Buck trade from MLB Trade Rumors, where we also get our information.
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redsox04071318champs
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Salty
Nov 14, 2012 13:30:35 GMT -5
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 14, 2012 13:30:35 GMT -5
All the above seems generally positive about Lavarnway but we just spent over $6 mil on a 2 year deal for RH hitting Ross. Wouldn't that indicate that Lavarnway is to be traded or sent back to AAA ball? I'm hoping AAA ball as back up. If he is not slotted at the mlb level. Ross has relatively even splits. He wouldn't necessarily be bad in a RH/RH platoon. I would prefer to see Salty shopped but they appear to have been doing that for a while with no success. To me it doesn't indicate that Lavarnway will be dealt or sent to AAA. To me it indicates (along with other things I've read) that Salty's days in Boston are numbered. The Sox spent $3 million for each of the two years to insure that they have a top notch backup in case Lavarnway struggles with the idea simply being the better Lavarnway plays the less Ross plays and the worse Lavarnway plays the more playing time Ross would get.
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Post by patrmac04 on Nov 14, 2012 14:26:09 GMT -5
All the above seems generally positive about Lavarnway but we just spent over $6 mil on a 2 year deal for RH hitting Ross. Wouldn't that indicate that Lavarnway is to be traded or sent back to AAA ball? I'm hoping AAA ball as back up. If he is not slotted at the mlb level. Ross has relatively even splits. He wouldn't necessarily be bad in a RH/RH platoon. I would prefer to see Salty shopped but they appear to have been doing that for a while with no success. To me it doesn't indicate that Lavarnway will be dealt or sent to AAA. To me it indicates (along with other things I've read) that Salty's days in Boston are numbered. The Sox spent $3 million for each of the two years to insure that they have a top notch backup in case Lavarnway struggles with the idea simply being the better Lavarnway plays the less Ross plays and the worse Lavarnway plays the more playing time Ross would get. I read it the same way. Rumors that the Sox have been actively shopping Salty seem to further reinforce the idea. Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Salty
Nov 14, 2012 14:59:31 GMT -5
Post by Matt Huegel on Nov 14, 2012 14:59:31 GMT -5
Trading Salty (rather than Lavarnway) also makes more sense if the Red Sox are able to sign Napoli. Napoli would serve as a safety-net catcher if Lavarnway isn't cutting it in regular playing time behind the plate, but if Lavarnway develops well then Napoli would play mostly 1B.
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Salty
Nov 14, 2012 23:58:38 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 23:58:38 GMT -5
Actually it does.
A home run total is a function of two things. How much contact you make, and how well you hit the ball when you do make contact. We all know that Lavarnway has good power, probably a 70 on the 20-80 scale. The real question is if he will make enough contact to access that power. When you say that Lavarnway is going to hit one home run every 35 ABs you are really saying that he's going to make less contact in the majors than he did in the minors.
Lavarnway has struck out roughly 20% of the time in the minors. He's hit home runs 18% of the time when he's made contact. Raise the K rate to 30% you get to 23 home runs over 600 PAs. That's still higher than the 15-20 HRs, but certainly not far enough out to make such a projection look silly.
The basis for Lavarnway's K rate rising in the majors is his scouting report. He seems to have trouble with inside velocity, though he has an excellent batting eye. Pitchers in the majors tend to have better fastball command and will be able to throw a tough inside fastballs for strikes. In the minors such pitches would be more likely to be out over the plate, where Lavarnway can extend his arms, or balls that Lavarnway could lay off.
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Salty
Nov 15, 2012 0:48:18 GMT -5
Post by redsoxprospects on Nov 15, 2012 0:48:18 GMT -5
It seems unconventional for the trade to be Salty, even though I do agree that they have been shopping him and would be better off moving him this winter. We are in a rebuild year. Lavarnway is younger and more controllable...etc. But Ross and Lavarnway are both right handed and if they are actually hoping to sign Napoli that would be yet another RH catcher, even though he would be slotted at 1st a lot probably. It seems very unconventional either way.
I like Lavarnway as an option, and while we are in rebuild mode I'd like to see them develop Lavarnway and get some value for Salty while we can but I think Lavarnway is probably projected to start the year again in AAA as depth. They are not going to spend $6 mil on Ross ( twice as much as they spent on Shoppach ) and send Ross to AAA. And I don't see them carrying 2 RH hitting catchers unless they just see Ross as a great mentor for Lavarnway and what the heck, go with 2 RH catchers for development sake because the year is probably shot ( not at all likely in Boston as a scenario ). Lavarnway is probably in AAA at the start of next year or another trade is in the works.
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