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Post by Jonathan Singer on Apr 21, 2015 10:06:14 GMT -5
4/21 Red Sox (LHP Wade Miley 0-1 10.57) @ Rays (RHP Chris Archer 2-1 1.37) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI4/22 Red Sox (RHP Joe Kelly 1-0 2.13) @ Rays (RHP Nathan Karns 1-1 4.58) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI4/23 Red Sox (RHP Clay Buchholz 1-2 6.06) @ Rays (RHP Jake Odorizzi 2-1 1.74) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 21, 2015 11:01:09 GMT -5
Not having a good feeling about the groundball pitcher strategy on artificial turf.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 21, 2015 11:24:22 GMT -5
Ryan Hanigan (he of the .160 BA and .400 OBP) is like the anti-AJP. They just couldn't be more different. If Hanigan has an iPhone, AJP has Samsung. If Hanigan likes Coke, AJP likes Pepsi. If Hanigan is liked by his teammates ...
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 21, 2015 11:30:36 GMT -5
Ryan Hanigan (he of the .160 BA and .400 OBP) is like the anti-AJP. They just couldn't be more different. If Hanigan has an iPhone, AJP has Samsung. If Hanigan likes Coke, AJP likes Pepsi. If Hanigan is liked by his teammates ... interesting tidbit in 108 Stitches -
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 21, 2015 14:23:37 GMT -5
Well, Hanigan isn't going to hit .160. More likely around .220-.240, but I would not be surprised to see his OBP remain high. He is a great addition to the team.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2015 14:24:29 GMT -5
I'm grabbing this data as I type on the assumption it'll be edifying:
Sox starting pitchers rank:
27th in ERA- (29th in ERA) 22nd in WPA 15th in FIP- and FIP 9th in SIERA 8th in xFIP- (10th in xFIP)
21st best BABIP, tied for 21st team DRS* 3rd best LD% 5th best GB%
tied for 23rd HR/FB
29th best LOB%
*At -3. Mookie is +5, Leon +1, Hanley -4, Napoli, Bogaerts, Sandoval are -1, pitchers are -2.
Conclusions:
That Pedroia, Napoli, and Sandoval are a combined -2 DRS suggests that there has been bad BABIP luck that the DRS system is not picking up (balls at the difficult edge of their speed and location buckets).
They've had terrible HR luck. This is backed up by HitTrackerOnline. The HR Joseph hit off Kelly is ordinarily a HR in 0 parks. Drew's HR off Buchholz and McCann's off Mujica were HRs only in Yankee Stadium. The Flaherty HR off of Porcello goes out in just 3 parks, the Tyler Moore shot off Ross in just 4, and the Chris Davis shot off Ross in just 6.
Most importantly, though, almost everyone's ERA has been exploded by clustering the badness in one start and even in a few innings of the one bad start. A lot of that is factored out of WPA, where we move up 5 spots from ERA-.
There's no evidence yet of a skill problem. The team is 9th in K% and 18th in BB%, to give them a 9th in K%-BB% to go with that 5th best GB% and (much less predictive, of course) 3rd best LD%.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 21, 2015 14:29:34 GMT -5
And they have a .615 winning percentage. What happens when the luck regresses to the norm?
The biggest disappointment which they should have control over is the defense. And that probably leads to a lot of that bad BABIP and LOB% luck. I'm personally also really missing Vazquez' framing. I've seen a few 3rd strikes with 2 outs that haven't been called leading to more runs. That's not even captured in stats.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 21, 2015 14:40:38 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 5m5 minutes ago David Ortiz has been suspended one game for making contact with an umpire. He has appealed.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 21, 2015 14:42:57 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 5m5 minutes ago David Ortiz has been suspended one game for making contact with an umpire. He has appealed. I'm actually not surprised because he was pretty intimidating during that. Maybe he'll drop the appeal when they're facing his least favorite pitcher.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 21, 2015 14:53:22 GMT -5
Win one steal two.
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 21, 2015 15:18:52 GMT -5
Funny lineup, sit Xman but play Victorino.
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 21, 2015 15:19:38 GMT -5
Hey, if the Yankees could sweep these guys....
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 21, 2015 15:21:53 GMT -5
This ground ball pitcher approach seems to me to be focused on maximizing the number of quality starts or near quality starts. They are going to get shelled sometimes when luck issues cascade but I think t does give us more near quality starts over the length of the season.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 21, 2015 15:22:34 GMT -5
Artificial turf and Xander's knee might be precautionary also.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2015 16:03:18 GMT -5
Rank in xFIP- and league-adjusted SIERA among the 140 pitchers who have started twice:
12, 22, Buchholz (ace or #2 level) 35, 42, Masterson (#2 level) 52, 54, Kelly (#3) 63, 60, Porcello (#3) 112, 108, Miley (#4)
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 21, 2015 17:13:25 GMT -5
Celtics Red Sox double header!
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 21, 2015 17:17:40 GMT -5
Mookie sucks, he's going 0-6 tonight with 4 Ks.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 21, 2015 18:18:14 GMT -5
As long as Sandoval can jump like that he can play in all he wants. :-D
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 21, 2015 18:24:56 GMT -5
Wade Miley is going to have to be pretty terrible for me to not enjoy having him pitch for the Red Sox... I love, love watching him rush through innings like that.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 21, 2015 18:34:23 GMT -5
Wade Miley is going to have to be pretty terrible for me to not enjoy having him pitch for the Red Sox... I love, love watching him rush through innings like that. Rays broadcast wasn't even done showing the Sox defense before the first AB was done.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 21, 2015 18:40:24 GMT -5
Nice play by Holt
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 21, 2015 18:43:34 GMT -5
I think the "players come up through the minors as 2B because they can't play SS" theory needs to be scrapped.
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Post by rangoon82 on Apr 21, 2015 18:51:03 GMT -5
Ha Sox score on an error. Again.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 21, 2015 18:52:12 GMT -5
And they have a .615 winning percentage. What happens when the luck regresses to the norm? Of course, much of the BABIP luck they've missed has been made up for by having their opponents make a million terrible errors.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 21, 2015 18:56:16 GMT -5
Nice catch by Nava, Pedroia was slinging that one into the stands.
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