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Post by Jonathan Singer on Apr 27, 2015 8:31:30 GMT -5
4/27 Red Sox (RHP Joe Kelly 1-0 4.08) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Aaron Sanchez 1-2 5.14) 6:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI4/28 Red Sox (RHP Clay Buchholz 1-2 4.84) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Drew Hutchinson 2-0 5.48) 6:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI4/29 Red Sox (RHP Rick Porcello 1-2 6.48) vs. Blue Jays (RHP R.A. Dickey 0-2 5.25) 6:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 27, 2015 8:42:18 GMT -5
The blue jays are going to score so many runs of of our SP......
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 8:56:32 GMT -5
Good to get home I think. Hopefully they limit Encanarcion to 2 HR.
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Post by station13 on Apr 27, 2015 9:16:01 GMT -5
All those starters' ERAs. lol
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 27, 2015 9:32:31 GMT -5
All those starters' ERAs. lol Buchholz has actually pitched well in 3/4 starts. I can't stand him. But, other than the meltdown in NY. He's been good. Kelly hasn't been terrible either. Really, just a bad inning at TB. Those two look like they are going to have to carry us for a while. Need 6IP or more in all 3 games.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 10:09:29 GMT -5
It's really, really nice having Brock Holt on the team. He is who is allowing us to carry an extra pitcher.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 27, 2015 10:54:28 GMT -5
@peteabe: #RedSox offense, conversely, sixth in runs, 5th in HRs despite assorted slumping stars.
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Post by station13 on Apr 27, 2015 10:56:45 GMT -5
Lots of those runs were gifts.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2015 10:58:32 GMT -5
if you look at xFIP the only really terrible one is Miley:
Buchholz: 2.61 Porcello: 3.84 Masterson: 3.76 Kelly: 3.47 Miley: 5.76
A cursory look at some of the other stuff:
Miley is also walking more than he is striking out (5.74 K/9) vs. 6.32 BB/9 (!)) - which is killing him with his roughly average BABIP of .308. Also, in concert with the high walk rate, he has thrown an average of 19.72 pitches per inning.
Porcello is giving up too many HRs (2.16/9) but the rest is good, including a decent 8.28 K/9 vs. 2.88 BB/9 with 16.48 pitches per inning.
Buchholz has been solid minus his one grease fire of a start (11.69K/9 vs 2.82 BB/9). He's had more than his share of balls find holes (.371 BABIP), and has thrown an average of 16.79 pitches per inning, but again this is skewed by the disaster vs. MFYs. Take that out and he's at a very good 15.79 per inning.
Masterson is still walking too many guys (7.84 K/9 vs. 3.46 BB/9) but for the most part has managed the damage and has a roughly average .299 BABIP and a 0.40 HR/9. Personally, I feel like I am watching DiceK too often when he pitches and that he's all over the zone in his last couple starts, but perhaps that's just an "eye test" reaction as his pitches per inning sit at 16.37.
Kelly has a good 9.17 K/BB vs. 2.55 BB/9. He's also been a victim of a few completely lost it innings (like Porcello and, in one start, Buchholz), but overall has been good. He does have a BABIP of .239, which is probably unsustainably low, unless he goes on to have his self-predicted Cy Young year (at least, from this point forward). Has thrown an average of 16.58 pitches per inning.
So, yeah, so far, Miley is the (very) weakest (dumpster fire of stinking, black smoke fail) link in this staff.
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Post by johnmark on Apr 27, 2015 11:00:08 GMT -5
Need Ortiz to break out of the slump he is in. Need Holt to get PT over Craig. Need Kelly and Clay to provide quality innings and go deep into the game.
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Post by station13 on Apr 27, 2015 11:10:22 GMT -5
Kelly is only allowing about 6hits/9, which is why that BABIP is low. If he gains better control, his ceiling would shoot up considerably. The stuff is why it's so hard to hit off him.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 11:15:37 GMT -5
Kelly is only allowing about 6hits/9, which is why that BABIP is low. If he gains better control, his ceiling would shoot up considerably. The stuff is why it's so hard to hit off him. I think that's actually the other way around.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2015 11:24:17 GMT -5
Kelly is only allowing about 6hits/9, which is why that BABIP is low. If he gains better control, his ceiling would shoot up considerably. The stuff is why it's so hard to hit off him. I think that's actually the other way around. Agree, which is why I added the "Cy Young" caveat. Right now he's had a little more of the good luck that Buchholz has been missing (though not quite as much as Buchholz has been missing, but I didn't take a look at ISO rates so no idea if, when Clay gives up contact it's been exceptionally hard contact).
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Post by station13 on Apr 27, 2015 11:26:45 GMT -5
Kelly is only allowing about 6hits/9, which is why that BABIP is low. If he gains better control, his ceiling would shoot up considerably. The stuff is why it's so hard to hit off him. I think that's actually the other way around. It's just not this sample size in 2015, it's his 13 starts with Boston. He is allowing just 6H/9, while pitching in hitters friendly parks.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 11:41:57 GMT -5
UZR for 2015 is now available. Very SSS of course!
- Brock Holt has a positive UZR for every position except LF (7 IP sample). - Pedey and Panda both at -0.2 due to errors. Xander at -0.9. - Hanley in LF at -3.8! If he doesn't get better that prorates to -42.1 per 150 games. - UZR likes Mookie in CF at +1.2. - Victorino still a good defender at +0.8
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 11:43:08 GMT -5
It's just not this sample size in 2015, it's his 13 starts with Boston. He is allowing just 6H/9, while pitching in hitters friendly parks. 13 starts is a small sample size for pitcher BABIP. BABIP as a pitcher skill is something you can start thinking about once you have at least 3 full seasons of data.
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Post by justinp123 on Apr 27, 2015 12:00:08 GMT -5
The main thing going in with signing these pitchers, was they were supposed to be inning eaters. Barely hitting the sixth inning isn't eating innings. I know it's early but very frustrating watching them implode so freaquently.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 12:02:05 GMT -5
Barely hitting the sixth inning isn't eating innings. So get a manager who understands that early inning performance isn't predictive of performance later on in the game. It's not the pitcher's fault if he gets hooked having thrown less than 100 pitches.
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Post by justinp123 on Apr 27, 2015 12:04:13 GMT -5
It is when he's giving up they're giving up 5+ runs before the 6th inning hits.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 27, 2015 12:13:25 GMT -5
Barely hitting the sixth inning isn't eating innings. So get a manager who understands that early inning performance isn't predictive of performance later on in the game. It's not the pitcher's fault if he gets hooked having thrown less than 100 pitches. People here have complained that JF has a slow hook? Now he has a quick hook? Which is it?!??
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 12:14:46 GMT -5
It is when he's giving up they're giving up 5+ runs before the 6th inning hits. Nope. Runs allowed is completely non-predictive, and if the manager doesn't understand that, it's entirely his fault. I mean, that's the manager's job, understanding baseball and making correct decisions based on that, and when you hook a starter solely because of the number of runs he's allowed, you've failed at that completely. Again, here's the research: mglbaseball.wordpress.com/
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Post by justinp123 on Apr 27, 2015 12:19:26 GMT -5
But just because a pitcher has not thrown many pitches or you can't predict how he'll do a couple innings later, doesn't mean he shouldn't be pulled for giving up a ton of runs by the 5th inning. Being pulled for giving up runs is the product of his stuff not working. Leaving pitches up over the plate etc. Especially since the pitcher can start to lose his confidence which could result in even more runs.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 12:22:22 GMT -5
But just because a pitcher has not thrown many pitches or you can't predict how he'll do a couple innings later, doesn't mean he shouldn't be pulled for giving up a ton of runs by the 5th inning. Being pulled for giving up runs is the product of his stuff not working. Leaving pitches up over the plate etc. Especially since the pitcher can start to lose his confidence which could result in even more runs. And the link I posted, which you surely didn't read in the last 5 minutes, shows that all these assumptions you are making are wrong.
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Post by justinp123 on Apr 27, 2015 12:23:18 GMT -5
lol i couldn't read it. i have limited internet access at work, sorry.
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Post by justinp123 on Apr 27, 2015 12:24:34 GMT -5
So even though i couldn't read it, what i'm taking from what you're saying is that even if the pitcher gives up 5 runs by the 5th inning but has only thrown 35 pitches etc, that he should be left in because he could still be productive going forward in the game?
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