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4/27-4/29 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 20:48:49 GMT -5
Farrell said they're "hopeful" he plays tomorrow. But I don't think its something to will keep him out for more than a game. Pretty sure he even stormed the field.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 27, 2015 20:50:23 GMT -5
I am so glad I avoided the gameday thread today. The bandwagon is real. Wow. People are so spoiled after 2004-2013. Relax. I seriously thought the score was going to be something like 15-5 when I read this before actually looking at the game result. Again, not seeing the over-exaggeration.
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TX
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Post by TX on Apr 27, 2015 20:54:05 GMT -5
Kelly has been just as good as Lackey this year and will be under control for longer. Lackey is 36, and probably only going to decline from here. Looks like Kelly is getting better. Even if we eat Craig's contract, I think this trade will work out just fine for us. Not ignoring that nomar has chosen to ignore SSS when convenient, I'm perplexed. On one hand, i doubt Lackey would have lasted our Boston media to this point, so he'd likely be a zero. On the other, Kelly pretty much is too, and the contract taken in this case, Craig, is wretched. I have no idea where this goes.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 20:55:39 GMT -5
I dunno, maybe they feel like Pedroia and Ortiz are good hitters? I know, it sounds crazy. You have to set up the force play there, regardless of who is up next. Just my opinion, I get that you don't want to face Pedey or Papi, but the odds are just better. If Pedroia hits the same hard grounder Mookie did, it's a double play. According to www.tangotiger.net/welist.html the IBB improves your win expectancy by 0.4% with average hitters, so you don't have to think Papi is better than Mookie by much to make the IBB wrong. But most of the time the IBB would be correct.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 21:05:25 GMT -5
Not ignoring that nomar has chosen to ignore SSS when convenient, I'm perplexed. On one hand, i doubt Lackey would have lasted our Boston media to this point, so he'd likely be a zero. On the other, Kelly pretty much is too, and the contract taken in this case, Craig, is wretched. I have no idea where this goes. You're assuming Kelly doesn't improve going into his prime years of age and that Lackey is going to be a #3 starter ages 36-38. Going back to last year, Kelly had a solid September. Nothing spectacular, but not a "zero" as you've labeled him. He may always be a backend starter, or he could improve. Either way, he's a non-zero. Depending on how well Kelly does and Lackey does, this deal could be very good or bad by the time all is said and done. You're making definitive statements on the future of Kelly when things are pointing up for him. I'll give you that he's only pitched 4 games this year, but at least he's looked good in those. I'm not guaranteeing that we win the trade, just saying that there's an easily feasible situation where it does play out well for us.
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TX
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Post by TX on Apr 27, 2015 21:13:57 GMT -5
Not ignoring that nomar has chosen to ignore SSS when convenient, I'm perplexed. On one hand, i doubt Lackey would have lasted our Boston media to this point, so he'd likely be a zero. On the other, Kelly pretty much is too, and the contract taken in this case, Craig, is wretched. I have no idea where this goes. You're assuming Kelly doesn't improve going into his prime years of age and that Lackey is going to be a #3 starter ages 36-38. Going back to last year, Kelly had a solid September. Nothing spectacular, but not a "zero" as you've labeled him. He may always be a backend starter, or he could improve. Either way, he's a non-zero. Depending on how well Kelly does and Lackey does, this deal could be very good or bad by the time all is said and done. You're making definitive statements on the future of Kelly when things are pointing up for him. I'll give you that he's only pitched 4 games this year, but at least he's looked good in those. I'm not guaranteeing that we win the trade, just saying that there's an easily feasible situation where it does play out well for us. I like to think that my definitive statements are agreed upon by most: I'd rather have Lackey than Smith, easy, and I'd rather Craig be gone so more promising kids can have his spot. Although I'll agree with you that Lackey will likely be dust a 3 years - years that I don't give a rats behind about today.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 27, 2015 21:24:56 GMT -5
I like to think that my definitive statements are agreed upon by most If this thread is any indication, they're not. Specifically this question about Lackey vs Miley, I wish they had kept Lackey for 2015, but I think long run, the trade is a Sox win. I also think if you include Lackey's intangibles (or lack thereof) I come a lot closer to preferring Miley in 2015.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 21:25:09 GMT -5
You're assuming Kelly doesn't improve going into his prime years of age and that Lackey is going to be a #3 starter ages 36-38. Going back to last year, Kelly had a solid September. Nothing spectacular, but not a "zero" as you've labeled him. He may always be a backend starter, or he could improve. Either way, he's a non-zero. Depending on how well Kelly does and Lackey does, this deal could be very good or bad by the time all is said and done. You're making definitive statements on the future of Kelly when things are pointing up for him. I'll give you that he's only pitched 4 games this year, but at least he's looked good in those. I'm not guaranteeing that we win the trade, just saying that there's an easily feasible situation where it does play out well for us. I like to think that my definitive statements are agreed upon by most: I'd rather have Lackey than Smith, easy, and I'd rather Craig be gone so more promising kids can have his spot. Although I'll agree with you that Lackey will likely be dust a 3 years - years that I don't give a rats behind about today. While I agree that most people would take Lackey over Kelly this year (myself included), I think that the difference between the two likely will be smaller than it ever was before, and that the possibility that Kelly outperforms Lackey exists. If you're not buying into Kelly, thats fine. There's reasons in his track record to temper your expectations. But his ceiling is high, and I think he has a good chance at improving over the next few years. Too early to say that we definitely got hosed here.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 27, 2015 21:31:13 GMT -5
Anyone hear why we didn't see Napoli? Are we THAT committed to getting Craig more at-bats? Or getting Nap a full day off so often? Is he hurting? Cause it kinda seems like it. ADD: just from the days off that is.
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Post by bsout2 on Apr 27, 2015 21:42:40 GMT -5
Anyone hear why we didn't see Napoli? Are we THAT committed to getting Craig more at-bats? Or getting Nap a full day off so often? Is he hurting? Cause it kinda seems like it. ADD: just from the days off that is. He was sick today.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 27, 2015 21:42:41 GMT -5
I am so glad I avoided the gameday thread today. The bandwagon is real. Wow. People are so spoiled after 2004-2013. Relax. I seriously thought the score was going to be something like 15-5 when I read this before actually looking at the game result. Again, not seeing the over-exaggeration. Really?
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 27, 2015 21:50:27 GMT -5
“@bradfo: Koji said he asked Hanigan to call for more fastballs today. He did. Was about 3 mph better than Sat. Better finish on both pitches”
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 27, 2015 21:52:31 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Joe Kelly said his offspeed stuff ”was the only thing that kept me in that ballgame.“”
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 27, 2015 22:10:06 GMT -5
Again, not seeing the over-exaggeration. Really? From today? No. I don't. The starting pitching has still been terrible, they've given up the most runs in baseball, and people used to put down quality starts as if they were nothing, yet applauding Kelly on a night he went 6 innings giving up 5 ER. The start before be had a complete meltdown against one of the worst lineups in baseball, squandering a 5-1 lead in only 16 pitches. 12 balls, 4 hits. When 6 IP 5 ER isn't considered a gem performance then I'll feel a little better.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Apr 27, 2015 22:25:33 GMT -5
From today? No. I don't. The starting pitching has still been terrible, they've given up the most runs in baseball, and people used to put down quality starts as if they were nothing, yet applauding Kelly on a night he went 6 innings giving up 5 ER. The start before be had a complete meltdown against one of the worst lineups in baseball, squandering a 5-1 lead in only 16 pitches. 12 balls, 4 hits. When 6 IP 5 ER isn't considered a gem performance then I'll feel a little better. Nobody is saying its a gem. People are happy because: 1. We won. 2. Kelly is striking out more people than he ever has in his career, which predicts starts in the future that will be better. 3. Though he had a rough start and limited fastball command, Kelly limited the bleeding and managed to go 6 innings to keep it a ballgame. 4. The Blue Jays have one of the best lineups in baseball. Some examples of overexaggeration and visceral reactions are rampant on page 4. I'm not calling out you specifically and I have been guilty of similar things in the past, but its definitely there.
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 27, 2015 22:34:45 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Joe Kelly said his offspeed stuff ”was the only thing that kept me in that ballgame.“” While he threw hit 99 on multiple occasions, jeeze. I haven't been able to watch much of his stuff live, mostly listening to the WEEI broadcast while working, but has his FB just been straight/flat/predictable? Maybe it wasn't as bad today as I remember while listening, or I only remember them pointing out when he gave up hits on the 98/99 MPH pitches. His FB according to FG is at the highest it's been in his career, and how if he can develop that into a true elite pitch, either with work on the FB or create some doubt by improving his offspeed stuff, he can take a major step forwards. I really think he's close to taking that step, and I think it will come. Would be nice to have Vazquez though, I'll say that, even if what they currently have isn't THAT far behind him, I think Vazquez is/could be just that good.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 28, 2015 0:05:08 GMT -5
Martin should be embarrassed, an inning after back handing a ball he should've blocked, he does the same thing and gift wraps the Sox a win. And why not IBB Mookie there? Thanks for the W, we will happily take it. So I take it this one was all luck also? On the road for a few days, but I did read the game synopsis before checking in here, to get a feel for the piss and vinegar - and the blood on the floor - I'd find. True to form it was. Listen people, you can't live a lifetime in one game, you don't have enough of them to make it a month, let alone through the season. And the stuff about the offense is just crap. Yes Craig looks cooked, and Victorino is hurt again. But that's why Holt and Nava are around and the latter isn't going anywhere unless the team acts as foolishly as they did last year. That's before we talk about Bradley, Castillo, Marrero, or Swihart. It takes months, not days or weeks, for the statistical variation to wash out for hitters. And while the pitching results have been poor, the peripherals do argue for some slack, as other have pointed out. Lastly, it's abject foolishness to argue for removing Betts as the leadoff hitter. He gets on base and he's going to keep getting on base. I like Holt's grittiness quotient as much as anyone, but he's a utility guy who gets very hot and can go very cold and he's not going to hit .450 going forward. Everybody take a deep breath, please. It's a very.. long... season
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 28, 2015 0:37:04 GMT -5
This team is 11-9 and has not played all that well, and the signs/history are there that there should be vast improvements out of a significant portion of the club. Hanley will probably regress back, but Betts/Bogaerts/Ortiz are all likely to take steps forwards. The rotation has not been good, but the peripherals are nowhere near as bad as traditional results show, which points to likely normalization/improvement. Castillo should also be an eventual upgrade in RF, both on offense and defense
They're fortunate to be 11-9, no doubt, and without a team that looks like a dominant team in the division, not only do I think their current roster is the best in the division, but they're also in the best position to make a move when needed, be it at the 4/5 starter spot or a big move for a top end guy.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 28, 2015 6:27:32 GMT -5
Jose Reyes to the DL, Jonathan Diaz recalled from Buffalo.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 6:35:56 GMT -5
One of the starters in this game made it through 6 innings and one didn't. You'll never guess which one!!! 6 IP 5 ER. The new QS. I'm really impressed that Kelly recovered enough to get through 6. That was gutsy. If he were more like you, he would have completely imploded while having a tantrum.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 28, 2015 7:15:07 GMT -5
While I agree that most people would take Lackey over Kelly this year (myself included), I think that the difference between the two likely will be smaller than it ever was before, and that the possibility that Kelly outperforms Lackey exists. If you're not buying into Kelly, thats fine. There's reasons in his track record to temper your expectations. But his ceiling is high, and I think he has a good chance at improving over the next few years. Too early to say that we definitely got hosed here. I was very down on the Lackey trade last year and didn't like either Craig or Kelly. Funnily enough I recall more people trying to convince me Craig would be good than Kelly. Anyway, I may have been wrong on Kelly, it seems the Sox somehow managed to find a guy who, going into his 4th major league season, could defy the aging curve and step up the velocity on his fastball. (Of course, if the Sox were so good at predicting future velocity, maybe they would have passed on Masterson.) It's too early to say for sure but I do like what I have seen from Kelly so far.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 28, 2015 7:23:50 GMT -5
I'm really impressed that Kelly recovered enough to get through 6. That was gutsy. If he were more like you, he would have completely imploded while having a tantrum. You mean like Buchholz or what Kelly did last week?
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2015 7:39:56 GMT -5
While I agree that most people would take Lackey over Kelly this year (myself included), I think that the difference between the two likely will be smaller than it ever was before, and that the possibility that Kelly outperforms Lackey exists. If you're not buying into Kelly, thats fine. There's reasons in his track record to temper your expectations. But his ceiling is high, and I think he has a good chance at improving over the next few years. Too early to say that we definitely got hosed here. I was very down on the Lackey trade last year and didn't like either Craig or Kelly. Funnily enough I recall more people trying to convince me Craig would be good than Kelly. Anyway, I may have been wrong on Kelly, it seems the Sox someone managed to find a guy who, going into his 4th major league season, could defy the aging curve and step up the velocity on his fastball. (Of course, if the Sox were so good at predicting future velocity, maybe they would have passed on Masterson.) It's too early to say for sure but I do like what I have seen from Kelly so far. I'm in the same boat. The other thing about Kelly that has improved his stock in my view is this new slider, which certainly looks like it has potential. He's not only getting a ton of hitters to offer at it despite it generally being thrown outside the strike zone (57.8% swing%; 47.1% league-average swing% for sliders), but guys are swinging and missing at it a whole lot (whiffs/swing of 46.2%;league-average for sliders is 31.9%) (Kelly data for previous sentence from Brooks Baseball, league-average data here). Having that sort of out pitch has basically doubled his strikeout rate (16.5% last year; 28.9% this year), which is a pretty goddamn neat trick. Guys are going to adjust to it some as scouting reports get updated, but if the slider even settles in as an above-average pitch (rather than the elite one it looks like now), Kelly can be a lot better of a pitcher than I thought. One of his major problems was that he didn't have an offspead pitch that he could get swings-and-misses with (his fastball was never a swing-and-miss pitch despite its velo; it was always more of an elite GB pitch, like Henderson Alvarez and Yordano Ventura), and if he's managed to fix that, he could be a really, really good pitcher. (His other problem is fringy fastball command, and so far, that still looks like a weakness. If he fixes that, his ceiling would jump another level and the sky would be the limit. Most 26-year-olds don't make huge leaps in command in their fourth season in the majors. But most 26-year-olds don't suddenly learn/reincorporate a plus slider, either...)
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 28, 2015 7:57:34 GMT -5
I agree with jmei and others, I would not worry about Kelly. He seems to be getting better. His stuff has really impressed me in a few of his starts.
I do think we could have done better in a trade though. Especially on the Craig end of it. That could be the point others are making. Kelly has to pan out for this to be a fair trade and even then we took back an awful contract along with giving up Lackey.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 28, 2015 8:08:48 GMT -5
I do think we could have done better in a trade though. Especially on the Craig end of it. That could be the point others are making. Kelly has to pan out for this to be a fair trade and even then we took back an awful contract along with giving up Lackey. Revisionist historians have been pushing the point of view that we had to take on the Craig contract to get the awesome and underpaid Kelly since about December. But it seems clear to me that the Sox were hoping for Craig to bounce back and whiffed on that.
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