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4/28 ML Gameday Thread: Dahlstrand headlines today's slate
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Apr 28, 2015 8:06:20 GMT -5
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 28, 2015 13:35:24 GMT -5
After a brief break ... your daily Manuel Margot Zero K% Watch And Jubilee: now up to 64PAs this year without a K (82 going back to last season), slashing 362/391/586 on the year.
According to Josh Norris, he is the last professional baseball player without a strikeout this year. Personally, I forget who predicted a while ago 55 PAs without a K, but I thought that was a pretty aggressive prediction ... but now we're just getting silly.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 28, 2015 16:12:14 GMT -5
I know the streak is a big deal but it's not even remotely as significant as what Mookie did last year with his 71 consecutive games streak being on base. If a guy goes up there swinging from pitch one and has good contact rates he can maybe not strikeout much. A guy getting on base 71 games in a row is much more significant to me. I still think Mookie is a mini star in the making. Better than Ellsbury ever thought of being. It even took a perfect throw to get him out at 2nd yesterday. He makes good split second decisions. I love the entire package. We need more Mookies and I doubt seriously we are going to see another one soon even with the talent we still have in the minors. The chances of Margot being as good as Mookie are remote to me. It's more than good contact rates, speed and some power ( as great as that combo is ).
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2015 16:17:13 GMT -5
You don't need to criticize one to compliment the other. They're different. The fact that they're getting compared at all is amazing news.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 28, 2015 17:21:47 GMT -5
I know the streak is a big deal but it's not even remotely as significant as what Mookie did last year with his 71 consecutive games streak being on base. If a guy goes up there swinging from pitch one and has good contact rates he can maybe not strikeout much. … Is there any indication whatsoever that this is how Margot has put together his streak? if not, is this comment relevant? |
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 28, 2015 19:00:11 GMT -5
Jacob Dahlstrand is becoming more and more interesting.
Jamie Callahan wit a solid outing through 4 innings, too.
So much better to follow these guys tonight than the those guys in Boston
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 28, 2015 19:24:29 GMT -5
I know the streak is a big deal but it's not even remotely as significant as what Mookie did last year with his 71 consecutive games streak being on base. If a guy goes up there swinging from pitch one and has good contact rates he can maybe not strikeout much. … Is there any indication whatsoever that this is how Margot has put together his streak? if not, is this comment relevant? What is it about me that just sets you guys off over nothing? Margot is a great prospect and someone the other day here at soxprospects said Margot's streak was more impressive than Mookies and no one said a peep. I say something essentially the same, only more substantive , and 2 guys line up to dump on it. Margot has a total of 4 walks this year. It's not like he is walking a lot either. He doesn't strike out a lot and he doesn't walk a lot. I imagine that just maybe he swings the bat. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 28, 2015 19:33:22 GMT -5
Swihart on base 3 out of 4 times so far today. He sure looks like he is focused on getting to the majors. He's putting up great numbers so far offensively and he often starts the year slowly.
Any chance we unload some of Craig's salary for Salty's salary? I don't see us continuing the Craig experiment much longer. I can't imagine too many scouts think he's ever coming back around.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 28, 2015 20:25:22 GMT -5
I know the streak is a big deal but it's not even remotely as significant as what Mookie did last year with his 71 consecutive games streak being on base Streaks are not significant. They're for fun. We can debate which was more fun when Margot's ends. I agree with your point in the sense that Mookie's may be more unlikely. |
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 28, 2015 22:59:12 GMT -5
Not a commentary on either as a player, but it kind of screws with my head that Oscar Tejeda is only nine days older than Jantzen Witte.
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Post by azblue on Apr 28, 2015 23:02:09 GMT -5
Claiming that apples taste better than oranges is really productive.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2015 23:12:56 GMT -5
I know the streak is a big deal but it's not even remotely as significant as what Mookie did last year with his 71 consecutive games streak being on base Streaks are not significant. They're for fun. We can debate which was more fun when Margot's ends. I agree with your point in the sense that Mookie's may be more unlikely. They're actually quite comparable, but, so far, Mookie's has been a bit more impressive. The K rate so far in the Carolina league this year is 18.3%. Mookie's streak was in leagues with OBPs of .332 and .327. A player with a .330 OBP has a 20.2% chance of failing to reach base in 4 PA. Of course, he had some games with 3 and 5. I can calculate the precise point at which Manny's streak becomes more unlikly, for an average player. Watch this space. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2015 0:12:19 GMT -5
Streaks are not significant. They're for fun. We can debate which was more fun when Margot's ends. I agree with your point in the sense that Mookie's may be more unlikely. They're actually quite comparable, but, so far, Mookie's has been a bit more impressive. The K rate so far in the Carolina league this year is 18.3%. Mookie's streak was in leagues with OBPs of .332 and .327. A player with a .330 OBP has a 20.2% chance of failing to reach base in 4 PA. Of course, he had some games with 3 and 5. I can calculate the precise point at which Manny's streak becomes more unlikely, for an average player. Watch this space. Amazingly enough, when you factor in all of Mookie's non-4-PA games, the feats become amazingly comparable. Mookie's streak includes 5 post-season games, and Manny's streak, including last post-season, is only 68 PA. If the K rate in the Carolina league stays the same (and my figure is a day out of date, BTW) now up to date) Manny's streak will be more unlikely than Mookie's when it reaches 70 69 PA. Odds against an average player matching Mookie's 71 game streak given his actual # of PA in each game: 1,275,717 to 1. Odds against an average player in the 2015 CAR not striking out in 68 straight PA: 1,066,865 to 1. In 69 PA: 1,308,453 to 1. If you want to ignore the post-season, Manny's streak is already up to 16,566,876 to 1 35,899.924 to 1. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 29, 2015 8:33:22 GMT -5
They're actually quite comparable, but, so far, Mookie's has been a bit more impressive. The K rate so far in the Carolina league this year is 18.3%. Mookie's streak was in leagues with OBPs of .332 and .327. A player with a .330 OBP has a 20.2% chance of failing to reach base in 4 PA. Of course, he had some games with 3 and 5. I can calculate the precise point at which Manny's streak becomes more unlikely, for an average player. Watch this space. Amazingly enough, when you factor in all of Mookie's non-4-PA games, the feats become amazingly comparable. Mookie's streak includes 5 post-season games, and Manny's streak, including last post-season, is only 68 PA. If the K rate in the Carolina league stays the same (and my figure is a day out of date, BTW), Manny's streak will be more unlikely than Mookie's when it reaches 70 PA. Odds against an average player matching Mookie's 71 game streak given his actual # of PA in each game: 1,275,717 to 1. Odds against an average player in the 2015 CAR not striking out in 68 straight PA: 969,812 to 1. In 69 PA: 1,187,755 to 1. In 70 PA: 1,454,676 to 1 If you want to ignore the post-season, Manny's streak is already up to 16,566,876 to 1. See? Fun! I formally request that you stick with the regular season odds and update as we go ... 16,566,876 to 1 is just fun. |
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2015 9:33:35 GMT -5
Amazingly enough, when you factor in all of Mookie's non-4-PA games, the feats become amazingly comparable. Mookie's streak includes 5 post-season games, and Manny's streak, including last post-season, is only 68 PA. If the K rate in the Carolina league stays the same (and my figure is a day out of date, BTW), Manny's streak will be more unlikely than Mookie's when it reaches 70 PA. Odds against an average player matching Mookie's 71 game streak given his actual # of PA in each game: 1,275,717 to 1. Odds against an average player in the 2015 CAR not striking out in 68 straight PA: 969,812 to 1. In 69 PA: 1,187,755 to 1. In 70 PA: 1,454,676 to 1 If you want to ignore the post-season, Manny's streak is already up to 16,566,876 to 1. See? Fun! I formally request that you stick with the regular season odds and update as we go ... 16,566,876 to 1 is just fun. Check out the edit (first thing I did this AM!). The K rate last year in the league was 19.7% and it's been 18.5% this year, both higher than what I was using. His streak, including the post-season, will surpass Mookie's in improbability if he does not fan in his first PA tonight.
Now, what were the odds of that being true the first time anyone did the calculation?
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Post by jmei on Apr 29, 2015 12:39:20 GMT -5
See? Fun! I formally request that you stick with the regular season odds and update as we go ... 16,566,876 to 1 is just fun. Check out the edit (first thing I did this AM!). The K rate last year in the league was 19.7% and it's been 18.5% this year, both higher than what I was using. His streak, including the post-season, will surpass Mookie's in improbability if he does not fan in his first PA tonight.
Now, what were the odds of that being true the first time anyone did the calculation?
I think I speak for everyone when I say that I hold you and only you responsible for the streak ending. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 29, 2015 12:52:52 GMT -5
Manuel was overheard in the Salem dugout after his first PA yelling, "The improbability of my streak is finally passed Mookie, b****es!" Then he lost purpose.
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